Development of Spatial Decision Support Systems to Support

Development of Spatial Decision Support Systems to Support Long-term Integrated Planning Daniel Rutledge, Landcare Research Garry Mc. Donald, NZCEE & Market Economics Michael Cameron, University of Waikato Graham Mc. Bride, NIWA Jacques Poot, University of Waikato Frank Scrimgeour, University of Waikato Robbie Price, Landcare Research Derek Phyn, Environment Waikato Hedwig van Delden, RIKS Beat Huser, Environment Waikato Bruce Small, Ag. Research Liz Wedderburn, Ag. Research Tony Fenton, Alchemists Ltd International Congress on Modelling & Simulation University of Canterbury 11 December 2007

What do we want for the future? Depends on • Whom you ask… • How far ahead we look… (amongst other things) Despite different individual opinions, values, desires, & utilities, increasingly we express a desire to become sustainable.

New Zealand Policy Context • Resource Management Act 1991 “The purpose of this Act is to promote the sustainable management of natural and physical resources. ” (Section 3) • Local Government Act 2002 “… this Act … provides for local authorities to play a broad role in promoting the social, economic, environmental, and cultural well-being of their communities, taking a sustainable development approach. ” (Section 3) Prepare Long-Term Council Community Plans

Environmental Cultural WELL-BEINGS Social Economic

While laudable in principle, how do we become sustainable? How do we plan for it? How do we measure or monitor it? What will it take?

What will it take? “The common theme throughout this strategy for sustainable development is the need to integrate economic and ecological considerations in decision making. ” World Commission on Environment and Development Our Common Future, 1987 “The fundamental task in front of us over the coming decades is to redesign our socio-political-economic system in ways that reintegrate the dependencies between people and our underpinning ecological systems. ” Dr. J. Morgan Williams, Former NZ Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment

Environment Waikato Long-Term Council Community Planning “ Local authorities within the Waikato area have made a commitment to work together to promote the well-being of their communities, consistent with the principles of sustainable development. This commitment is in the form of a signed triennial agreement. ” (Page 9) “ Our environmental resources therefore need to be managed sustainably, so that our region’s prosperity and growth can continue for the long-term. ” (Page 24)

Choosing Regional Futures Develop and apply planning and communication tools to make informed choices for the future Funded from 2006 -2010 by NZ Foundation for Research, Science & Technology

Waikato 2006 • Population: 387, 700 (Statistics NZ June 06 est. ) • Households: 145, 100 (Statistics NZ June 06 est. ) • Land Cover – – – Agriculture 55. 2% Natural 28. 2% Forestry 14. 4% Urban 1. 1% Other 1. 0% • GDP: ~ $12 Billion (2003 GDP + 3% annual growth) • Ecological Footprint: ~9 ha • # Businesses: ~34, 000

Waikato 2026? • Population: 426, 800 (+39, 100, Statistics NZ 2026 med. est. ) ? • Households: 169, 400 (+24, 300; Statistics NZ 2036 med. est. ) • Land Cover – – – Agriculture ? Natural ? Forestry ? Urban ? Other ~ ? • GDP: ~ $33 Billion (2003 GDP + 3% annual growth) • Ecological Footprint: ? • # Businesses: ~50, 000+ ?

CRF Objectives 1) Process and communication focus linked to EW Community Outcomes & LTCCP process explore plausible futures (scenarios) develop and trial a Deliberation Matrix 2) Building a spatial decision support system support the planning & communication in Objective 1 integrate economy, environment, society ( & culture? ) track indicators across space and/or time explore trade-offs, win-wins, limits

• New Zealand has more people than expected • Less money from government • Climate change impacts are bigger than expected ‘GDP’ • The economy is weaker and slower growing than anticipated (profit) Crowded House Sleeping In How we measure ‘wealth’ in Waikato ‘mine’ Science Society • Science and scientists become more important for economic growth • More things are known about what you as an individual are doing; more things are known about what companies are doing Natural Capital (resources) ‘maintai n’ Nature Counts GPI’ • New Zealanders discuss and understand the value of nature in a new way (people) • Economic growth comes from biological and life sciences ‘

Objective 1 Deliberation Matrix ios ar en c /S s t tra gie e Stakeholders S Va lue s/ Ind ica tor s

Why an SDSS? • Long-term integrated planning and resource management are examples of “wicked” or unstructured problems Characterised by – Multiple actors – Multiple values & views – Multiple outcomes possible – High uncertainty • Uncertainty relative to the knowledge for solving the problem weakly structured problem unstructured problem weakly structured problem Conflicting views on values, goals and measures relative to the solution of the problem An SDSS helps address unstructured problems • • • Integrates society, economy, and environment Identifies links & feedbacks Sets limits explicitly (e. g. , only so much land, water, soil) Demonstrate importance of “where” in addition to “what” and “how much” Potential for aggregation/disaggregation

Example: ill-structured problem To be recognised as a District with: • A growing and vibrant community where cultural diversity is celebrated. • A diverse, sustainable economy that provides full employment. • A safe and healthy society, where people can achieve their goals. • A pristine, sustainable environment. South Waikato District Council LTCCP, Page 15

The Process Future Goals (i. e. Community Outcomes) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Present (informed by Past) Scenario 3

The CRF SDSS should… • Focus on science and integration, not technology • Address a range of issues in an integrated manner • Be robust and relatively quick • Consider space explicitly • Be adaptable to other regions in NZ.

CRF SDSS Considerations Time Scientific Technological CRF Project Constraints Scope Resources Budget Organisational

Scientific Considerations • Interdisciplinary • Systems approach • Spatially-explicit • Multi-scale • 30 -50 year temporal horizon

SDSS: Systems Approach Stocks Flows Goods Society Economy Labour Stewardship Services Wastes Environment Resources Systems models track stocks & flows over time

Goods Society Economy Labour Stewardship Services Spatially-Explicit Wastes Environment Resources

Technological Considerations • Multiple data types & sources • Integration of different models with different origins • Portability/adaptability • Speed/ease of use under different settings (i. e. use in community engagement or only “behind the scenes”)

RIKS GEONAMICA Framework • Stand-alone application • Systems models • Multiple spatial & temporal scales • Model components from partners incorporated directly (no passing of data) • History of development and use

Organisational Considerations • Regional & District/City Councils – Primary customer – Want to use SDSS otherwise why bother – Deliver sooner rather than later – Portability • Research – Ability to address a range of issues – Flexibility for simple to complex

Project Structure End User Networks Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Advisory Group

SDSS Design by Triangulation Waikato Community Outcomes & MARCO Indicators Key Drivers from Qualitative Scenarios Society Economy Environment Community outcomes from 4 other regions

Choosing Futures Waikato Community Themes & Outcomes • Sustainable Environment - The Waikato region values and protects its diverse, interconnected natural environments. • Quality of Life - The Waikato region is a great place to live, providing the services and opportunities we need to live well. • Sustainable Economy - The Waikato region balances a thriving economy with looking after its people, places and environment. • Culture & Identify - The Waikato region identifies with - and values - its land, air rivers and waterways, mountains, flora, fauna and its people. • Participation & Equity - The Waikato region builds strong informed communities and has a culture that encourages people and communities to play their part. Too difficult to interpret – focused on set of 75 core MARCO indicators

Qualitative Scenarios – Key Drivers • World – – • Climate Change: increased instability, extremes, and spatial variation Population: migration trends, potential climate refugees Market changes: number, size, access, consumer preferences, locations Globalisation: R&D investment New Zealand – Population: older, increasing proportion of Maori, Pasifika, and Asians; decreasing proportion of Pakehas/Europeans – Lifestyles: changing expectations, influence of technology – Economy: agricultural intensification, new metrics, bio-economy – Energy: availability, affordability, mix of renewable/non-renewable – Housing: affordability, increasingly urban culture • Waikato Region – Land use: intensification; change trends; management and influence on intensity of flooding, erosion, slips; – Auckland: urbanisation pressures – Economy: agricultural intensification – Governance: continued devolution versus greater central authority

4 Comparison Regions • Auckland – ~1/3 of NZ population – Highly urban and urban expansion affects Waikato to the south – Large source of internal tourism for the Waikato • Bay of Plenty – Proximity to Waikato – One major urban centre (Tauranga) – Focused more on horticultural than pastoral • Horizons (Wanganui-Manawatu) – Similar major land uses (agricultural, forestry) – One major urban centre (Palmerston North) • Canterbury – Similar major land uses (agricultural, forestry), increasing dairying – One major urban centre (Christchurch) – Water supply/allocation an issue

Draft SDSS System Design NZ & World External Drivers Climate Change Scenarios External Sources NIWA Region Hydrology NIWA Waikato Region Dynamic Economy-Environment Model NZCEE Water Quality NIWA District Zoning Demography Dairying District Councils Uo. W-PSC Uo. W-SM Local Land Use RIKS/LCR/EW SUITABILITY Biodiversity LCR ACCESSIBILITY LOCAL INFLUENCE INTEGRATION - LCR LEAD Spatial Indicators GEONAMICA - RIKS

3 Examples Based on the SDSS Prototype Land Use Abandoned Bare Ground Broad-Acre Forestry Infrastructure Mine Indigenous Vegetation Pastoral - Dairy Pastoral - Other Primary Residential Water Wetland Utilities Services Manufacturing Construction Dairy Expansion Dairy Decline Village Life

SDSS “Goodness of Fit” Indicators (#) Waikato Region Community Theme Informed Total Direct Indirect Gap Sustainable Environment 22 16 5 1 Quality of Life 23 3 6 14 Sustainable Economy 17 9 4 4 Culture and Identity 10 - 3 7 Participation and Equity 4 - - 4

What We Want to Achieve 1. Planning tools that inform communities 2. Tools expose links and tradeoffs 3. Councils use these tools

Conclusions (so far…) • Successful development requires active and on-going organisational commitment • Tension exists between design flexibility and prioritisation • Spatially-explicit systems model approach should help unite different models & approaches • Technical integration offers adaptive potential & simplifies end-use but generates additional overheads and requires willingness of researchers to relinquish some control.

Thank you! Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines