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Demographic Trends “Where we go from here” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Demographic Trends “Where we go from here” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

Where we go from here. Macro Demographic Trends l Recent Development Trends l Projected Where we go from here. Macro Demographic Trends l Recent Development Trends l Projected Growth Patterns l Implications of Trends on Housing l

Maryland Population Pyramid 2000 -2010 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Maryland Population Pyramid 2000 -2010 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000 2010

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010 Source: Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Bob Lefenfeld: Maryland Population Pyramid 2010 -2020 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Bob Lefenfeld: Maryland Population Pyramid 2010 -2020 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000 2020

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020 Source: Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030 Source: Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Maryland Regions Maryland Regions

Job Growth by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Labor Job Growth by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Labor

Permits by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Planning Permits by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Impact of Growth Controls Source: Maryland Department of Planning, RPRG Impact of Growth Controls Source: Maryland Department of Planning, RPRG

2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. Region Source: Maryland Department of Planning 2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. Region Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Source: Maryland Department of Planning Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Source: Metropolitan Washington COG Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

Source: Metropolitan Washington COG Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

Product Implications l Demographically, Active Adult housing demand growing. – Much AA exurban locations Product Implications l Demographically, Active Adult housing demand growing. – Much AA exurban locations since prime suburban land premium in these markets. – Smaller, more expensive for sale housing in urban infill areas. – Locate close to home. 60% of 55 to 64 buyers buy within county they reside.

Second Homes l Buyers typically 60 years old l Income $93, 000. l 74 Second Homes l Buyers typically 60 years old l Income $93, 000. l 74 % vacation home, 23 % investment property. l 2 nd Home w/i 200 miles of primary resident. Source: National Association of Realtors

Demand for Rental Housing… Demand increase with echo boom and part of active adult Demand for Rental Housing… Demand increase with echo boom and part of active adult population. l Affordability restricting some households from buying, especially if interest rates increase. l Tax credit primary housing program to address moderate income households. l Reinvestment in urban areas l – (Mark to Market, HOPE VI)

Senior Housing l Demand is just starting to build. l Evolution of rental housing Senior Housing l Demand is just starting to build. l Evolution of rental housing from small tax credit projects to larger market rate rental units. l Long term, more demand for integrated campus to serve seniors.

WWW. RPRG. Net WWW. RPRG. Net