Demographic Trends Where we go from here Presented

Demographic Trends “Where we go from here” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

Where we go from here. Macro Demographic Trends l Recent Development Trends l Projected Growth Patterns l Implications of Trends on Housing l

Maryland Population Pyramid 2000 -2010 2000 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000 2010

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Bob Lefenfeld: Maryland Population Pyramid 2010 -2020 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000 2020

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

Maryland Regions

Job Growth by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Labor

Permits by Md. Regions Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Impact of Growth Controls Source: Maryland Department of Planning, RPRG

2000 Commutation Patterns by Md. Region Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

Source: Metropolitan Washington COG

Product Implications l Demographically, Active Adult housing demand growing. – Much AA exurban locations since prime suburban land premium in these markets. – Smaller, more expensive for sale housing in urban infill areas. – Locate close to home. 60% of 55 to 64 buyers buy within county they reside.

Second Homes l Buyers typically 60 years old l Income $93, 000. l 74 % vacation home, 23 % investment property. l 2 nd Home w/i 200 miles of primary resident. Source: National Association of Realtors

Demand for Rental Housing… Demand increase with echo boom and part of active adult population. l Affordability restricting some households from buying, especially if interest rates increase. l Tax credit primary housing program to address moderate income households. l Reinvestment in urban areas l – (Mark to Market, HOPE VI)

Senior Housing l Demand is just starting to build. l Evolution of rental housing from small tax credit projects to larger market rate rental units. l Long term, more demand for integrated campus to serve seniors.

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