Demographic Radicalization The Religiosity-Fertility Nexus and Politics

Demographic Radicalization The Religiosity-Fertility Nexus and Politics

Demographic Radicalization • The demographic increase of the conservative religious population at the expense of moderate or secular groups • Why radical? Enlarges the pool of suppliers of, or recruits to, religious violence – unless totally quietist (ie Amish) • May alter alliance behaviour and foreign policy

Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland • "The basic fear of Protestants in Northern Ireland is that they will be outbred by the Roman Catholics. It is as simple as that. " - Terence O’ Neill, Unionist PM of Northern Ireland after resigning, 1969

Religious Demographic Advantage • USA: religious restructuring – more intense have higher fertility (Hackett 2008) • Europe: Religious have stable or increasing fertility advantage (Adsera 2004; Regnier. Loilier 2008, etc) • Conservative Muslim and Christian immigration to Europe Fertility Gap, Women Aged 40 -60 (Children Ever Born) in GSS 1972 -2006 Biblical Literalist Homosexuality Abortion 1972 -85 1. 11 1. 22 1986 -96 1. 21 1. 16 1. 28 1997 -2006 1. 25 1. 21 1. 38

Source: ‘The Moment of Truth’, Ha’aretz, 8 February 2007

Israel: Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Growth • TFR of 6. 49 in 1980 -82 increasing to 7. 61 in 1990 -96; Other Israeli Jews decline 2. 61 to 2. 27 • Proportion set to more than double, to 17% by 2020 • No indication of major outflows • Majority of Israeli Jews after 2050?

• UK: A Tale of Two Cities: Salford v Leeds • US: – American Jews have TFR of 1. 43. In 2000 -6 alone, Haredim increase from 7. 2 to 9. 4 pc of total. – Kiryas Joel, in Orange Co. , New York, nearly triples in population to 18000 between 1990 and 2006

Decline of Liberal Protestants

Source: WVS 1999 -2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10, 000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100, 000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

European Islam: A Reflection of Things to Come? Source: Westoff and Frejka 2007

Religion and Extremist Politics • Amish or jihadis? • Israel: – Haredi quietism and pragmatism – Growing split between Jerusalem and Tel. Aviv; – Haredi settlers/battalions, religious zionism, Yigal Amir

USA • Mainly individualistic and focused on domestic policy • Support Republican Party • Christian Zionism • Messianic foreign policy (‘rapture’, ‘end times’) • Anti-abortion violence • From quietism to activism

Muslim World • Most are quietist • No connection between orthodoxy and violence in surveys • Yet religion is least quietist • Jihadism and Saudi-funded pan-Islamism • Ambiguity of caliphatist groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir, Salafis • Violent element is a minority, is selective and reactive, but a small slice of a growing pie will enlarge pool of suppliers • All jihadis are fundamentalist, though recruits may be religiously illiterate

A More Violent World? • Rise in religious civil wars as proportion of total • Only a quarter are intra-faith, 9/10 Islamic • More conservative religious societies will probably produce more religious-type violence, less secular violence • Conflict sacralized, harder to reach settlements and agree common interests