Demographic Data Prepared for the Northwest Hills Council

Demographic Data Prepared for the Northwest Hills Council of Governments By the Connecticut Economic Resource Center 2016 *FINAL* 1

Total Population – Historical • Population in the NHCOG region increased by 44% from 1960 -2010 • The region’s long-term growth is slightly greater than that in the state (41%) but slower than that of the United States (72%) during the same 50 years • The region had a population increase of 5% in the most recent tenyear period (2000 -2010) • Seven NHCOG towns saw their population more than double from 1960 -2010: Burlington, 233%; Barkhamsted, 177%; Roxbury, 148%; Warren, 144%; Goshen, 131%; New Hartford, 130%; Morris, 101% • Warren had the largest growth in the past 10 years (17%) • Burlington, Canaan, Goshen, New Hartford, and Warren had double -digit growth in past 10 years • Norfolk was the only town that had a decrease (-6%) over the 50 -year period • Five towns had a decrease over the last 10 years: Sharon, -6%; Salisbury, -6%; North Canaan, -1%; Cornwall, -1%; Washington, -1% 2

Change in Total Population – Historical U. S. , Connecticut, and Region Source: U. S. Census; CT. gov 3

Total Population – Historical By Town Source: U. S. Census; CT. gov 4

Annual Population Change Sources: U. S. Census; CT. gov; CT Data

Annual Population Change Sources: U. S. Census; CT. gov; CT Data

Total Population • Region’s population increased 2% from 2001 -2014 • This is compared to a 5% increase in Connecticut and 13% increase in U. S. • The region’s overall population change ranged from an increase of 1% to a decrease of 1% each year during the period • 12 towns increased their populations over this time period, and 9 towns had a population decrease • In 2014, every town except Burlington saw a decrease in population • Greatest decrease was in Canaan (-1. 6%), which also had the biggest one-year increase in population during this period (12. 6% increase in 2009 -2010) • Sharon had the biggest one-year decrease (-8. 4% in 2009 -2010) 7

Change in Total Population U. S. , Connecticut, and Region Source: U. S. Census; CT. gov 8

Total Population By Town Source: CT. gov 9

Part-time Population • Over 10% of the housing units in the NHCOG were classified as “vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use” in 2014 • The vacancy rate for seasonal or recreational properties was only 2% in the state and 4% in the nation • Salisbury and Cornwall had the highest rates of seasonal vacant housing. In both towns, it was more than 30% of total housing units • Salisbury also had the greatest absolute number of part-time use properties • Assuming these vacant properties were occupied at the region’s average household size, the region’s “seasonal population” would represent almost 13% of the region’s actual population • Cornwall and Salisbury would have seasonal populations over 50% of their actual population, and an additional 7 towns would have seasonal populations that were at least 25% of the towns’ actual populations 10

Seasonal Vacancies (2014) Source: American Community Survey 11

Part-time Population (2014) Source: American Community Survey 12

Population by Age Group • The population in the region is slightly older than that of the state and the nation: 18% of the population is over 65 years old in the region, while this cohort represents 15% of Connecticut’s population and 14% of the U. S. population • The region’s population has historically been slightly older than that of the nation and the state • The difference is even more dramatic adding in the cohort aged 45 -64: those over 45 represent more than 50% of the region’s population but only 43% of the state’s and 40% of the nation’s population • Those under 18 years old comprise 20% of the region’s population, 22% of the state’s, and 24% of the nation’s • Of the towns, the over 65 population percentage is the greatest in Sharon (31%), Washington (25%), and Salisbury (25%) • The relative percentage of the town’s population over age 65 is smaller than the regional average in eight towns (Barkhamsted, Burlington, Colebrook, Goshen, Hartland, Morris, New Hartford, and Torrington) • The relative percentage of the youth population (those under 18 years old) is greatest in Burlington (27%) and smallest in Sharon (13%) 13

Population by Age Group (2014) U. S. , Connecticut, and Region Source: U. S. Census; CT. gov 14

Population by Age Group (2014) By Town Source: American Community Survey 15

Population by Age – Historical U. S. , Connecticut, and Region Source: U. S. Census; CT. gov 16

Population Projections • The region’s population is projected to increase by 909 people, or 1%, from 2015 -2025 • 11 towns are expected to lose population, ranging from an 11% decrease in Sharon to a 0. 3% decrease in North Canaan • New Hartford and Warren are projected to see the largest increases, 6. 6% and 6. 2%, respectively • Projected decreases will be larger and projected increases smaller in the long term (from 2020 -2025 compared to 2015 -2020) • Residents over 65 will comprise 23. 8% of the region’s population in 2020 and 28. 0% in 2025 • This age cohort will be 18. 1% of the state’s population in 2020 and 20. 9% in 2025 • The school-age population (those 19 years old or younger) will be 19. 5% of the region’s population in 2020 and 17. 5% in 2025, compared to 23. 0% and 22. 0% of the state’s population in 2020 and 2025, respectively 17

Population Projections By Town Source: CT Data Collaborative; Connecticut State Data Center 18

Public School Enrollment • The region has seen an overall decrease in public school enrollment in town and regional school districts from 2001 -02 academic year to 2014 -15 • All traditional town school districts and four of five regional schools (which provide elementary and secondary schools) had a decrease • Largest decrease was over 51% in the Cornwall School District • Only Regional School District 07 had an increase, which was less than 1% • Charter schools had an increase in enrollment of 10% • Capitol Region Education Council (CREC), which offers magnet school programs, and Education Connection, which offers educational programs in schools, saw increases in enrollment, although this included students from outside the NHCOG region (see slide 21) 19

Public School Enrollment Town School Districts Source: CT Data Collaborative; CT State Department of Education 20

Public School Enrollment Regional School Districts Source: CT Data Collaborative; CT State Department of Education 21

Public School Enrollment Other Schools Source: CT Data Collaborative; CT State Department of Education 22

About CREC • Member Communities • • NHCOG: Burlington, Hartland, Harwinton, New Hartford Other: Avon, Berlin, Bloomfield, Bolton, Bristol, Canton, Cromwell, East Granby, East Hartford, East Windsor, Ellington, Enfield, Farmington, Glastonbury, Granby, Hartford, Manchester, New Britain, Newington, Plainville, Portland, Rocky Hill, Simsbury, Somers, Southington, South Windsor, Suffield, Vernon, West Hartford, Wethersfield, Windsor Locks • Preschools and Elementary Schools • • • Academy of Aerospace & Engineering Elementary School (Pre. K-5) – Rocky Hill Discovery Academy (Pre. K - 5) – Wethersfield Glastonbury-East Hartford Elementary Magnet School (Pre. K-5) – Glastonbury International Magnet School for Global Citizenship (Pre. K-5) – South Windsor Medical Professions and Teacher Preparation Academy (Pre. K) – New Britain Montessori Magnet School (Pre. K-6) – Hartford Museum Academy (Pre. K-5) – Bloomfield and Windsor Reggio Magnet School of the Arts (Pre. K-5) – Avon The CREC Ana Grace Academy of the Arts Elementary Magnet School (Pre. K-5) – Avon University of Hartford Magnet School (Pre. K-5) – West Hartford • Secondary Schools • • • Academy of Aerospace & Engineering (6 -12) – Windsor Greater Hartford Academy of Mathematics & Science: Half-Day Program (10 -12 in School Year 2016 -17) – Windsor Greater Hartford Academy of the Arts (9 -12) – Hartford Greater Hartford Academy of the Arts Magnet Middle School (6 -8) – Hartford Medical Professions and Teacher Preparation Academy (6 -12) – New Britain Metropolitan Learning Center (6 -12) – Bloomfield Public Safety Academy (7 -12 in School Year 2016 -17) – Enfield Two Rivers Magnet High School (9 -12) – Hartford Two Rivers Magnet Middle School (6 -8) – East Hartford 23

Educational Attainment • The population in the NHCOG area is relatively welleducated • Only 9% of the population has less than a high school education, while 11% of the state population and 14% of the U. S. population does not have a high school degree (or equivalent) • 14% of the regional population has a graduate degree, while 16% of the Connecticut population and 11% of the U. S. population hold graduate degrees • Cornwall has the greatest proportion of graduate degree holders, relative to the town’s population, at 32% • Five towns have a smaller proportion of graduate degree holders than the region’s 14% • North Canaan has the largest percentage of the population that did not complete high school (15%) • Torrington (14%) and Winchester (12%) also have a greater share of those without high school degrees than the region as a whole 24

Educational Attainment (2014) By U. S. , Connecticut, Region, and Town Source: American Community Survey 25

Household Income • Median household income is higher in the region than in both the state and the nation • Torrington has the lowest median household income, and Burlington has the highest • No town has a lower median household income than that in the United States as a whole • Five towns have a median household income lower than that in the state • Income distribution in the region tends to skew toward higher income groups • 13 towns have a larger share of households earning $200, 000 or more than in the region as a whole • From a historical perspective, the region has generally had smaller shares of the lowest and highest income families compared to the state 26

Household Income (2014) U. S. , Connecticut, and Region Source: American Community Survey 27

Household Income – Historical U. S. , Connecticut, and Region Source: U. S. Census; CT. gov 28

Household Income (2014) By Town 29

Households in Poverty • The region had both a smaller percentage of households below the poverty line and a smaller proportion of households receiving support from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) than the state and the nation • Only eight towns had a poverty rate above the regional rate, and only two of these towns had a poverty rate greater than that in Connecticut • No town had a poverty rate greater than in the United States • Barkhamsted had both the lowest poverty rate and the lowest absolute number of households in poverty, while Goshen had the highest poverty rate and Torrington had the highest number of households in poverty • Three towns had a greater proportion of households receiving SNAP than in the region or the state (Canaan, Torrington, and Winchester) • With the exception of Canaan, all towns had a higher percentage of households in poverty than those receiving SNAP 30

Households in Poverty (2014) U. S. , Connecticut, and Region Source: American Community Survey; CT Data Collaborative 31

Households in Poverty (2014) By Town Source: American Community Survey; CT Data Collaborative 32

About the American Community Survey • The American Community Survey (ACS) is an ongoing survey conducted by the U. S. Census Bureau that provides annual estimates of the national population with respect to a variety of indicators. It is used by decision makers at all levels of government and in private businesses and nonprofit organizations to assess the characteristics – including changes – of the U. S. population. It is a part of the decennial census conducted by the U. S. Census Bureau to understand population characteristics during the interim periods. It has a sample design, with the findings weighted to measure the characteristics of the population within specific margins of error or confidence intervals. • ACS results are provided in one-, three- and five-year estimates. Use of the five-year estimates provides a larger sample size and, thus, more precision. This is especially useful for smaller geographic areas, as in the case of most of the towns in the NHCOG region. As such, the results provided in this analysis are from the 2010 -2014 ACS, which are the most recent five-year estimates available. The Census Bureau also regularly revisits weighting and sampling methodology, to ensure reliable estimates. For the five-year ACS used here, the Census conducted interviews with over 113, 000 randomly selected households in the state. 33