Decision Support Summary 27 June 2003 1

Decision Support Summary 27 June 2003 1

Agenda • List of Papers • Key Results- Presentations and Discussion • Issues and Future Actions 27 June 2003 2

Papers • Trajectory Prediction – Common Trajectory Prediction Capability for Decision Support Tools (Swierstra, Green) – Aircraft Performance Modeling for Air Traffic Management Applications (Suchkov, Swierstra, Nuic) – Improving Trajectory Forecasting Through Adaptive Filtering Techniques (Mondoloni, Liang) • ATM Capabilities – Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of a Multi-Strategy Traffic Management Decision Support Capability (Wanke, Taber, Miller, Ball, Fellman) – Free-Flight Program Update (Post, Knorr) 27 June 2003 3

Papers • ATM Capabilities (Continued) – Initial Evaluation of URET Enhancements to Support TFM Flow Initiatives, Severe Weather Avoidance, and CPDLC (Kirk, Bolczak) – Route Selection Decision Support in Convective Weather: A Case Study of the Effects of Weather and Operational Assumptions on Departure Throughput (De. Laura, Allan) – Presenting Uncertainty to Controllers and Pilots (Nicholls, Battino, Marti, Pozzi) 27 June 2003 4

Papers • Conflict Detection/Resolution – Lateral Conflict Resolution in the Medium-Term- Achieving a Required Probability of Conflict (Irvine) – Investigating Fundamental Issues in Lateral Conformance Monitoring Using a Fault Detection Approach ( Reynolds, Hansman, Hong Li) • ATM Infrastructure – The Big Iron (Williams, Mondoloni, Liang, Bradford, Jehlen) – Air Traffic Control Command Monitoring System Based on Information Integration (Zhengping Ma, Deguang Cui, Peng Cheng) 27 June 2003 5

Session Chairs; Thank You! • • • Hartmut Fricke Kevin Corker Steve Green Colin Meckiff Andy Price 27 June 2003 6

Observation • Decision support track generally: – Did not emphasize long-term, future concepts in decision support tools – Did emphasize near to mid-term (needed) evolutionary concepts and capabilities 27 June 2003 7

Results • Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty: What is it? How to reduce? How to live with it in decision support tools? – Quality and standardization of input data remains a key issue in improving accuracy of predictions for decision support tools (DSTs) and simulations , e. g. : • Controller intent • Pilot intent • Take-off weight • Aircraft performance data (intellectual property and liability issues are significant vis-a vis access) 27 June 2003 8

Results • Trajectory Prediction: some solutions proposed to address uncertainty – “Closed loop solutions” implemented as active advisories to reduce intent errors – “Common trajectory prediction services” for multiple DSTs and domains – Application of Kalman Filter approach to dealing with wind error in cruise phase of flight • Need for coordinated research to set future direction reinforced 27 June 2003 9

Results • Automation Capability/Weather Information Integration to help human decision makers deal with weather situations – Concepts presented for utilization of current and forecast weather information in decision support tools: • Better enable controllers to assist pilots with weather avoidance • Deal with weather-related traffic flow situations • Enhance departure management – Initial steps in getting away from “fair weather tools” • More generally, integration of individually-developed decision support capabilities to realize “end-to-end” solutions, e. g – Automated dissemination of TFM initiatives, conflict detection/resolution consideration those initiatives and other conflicts, data link delivery of resultant clearances) 27 June 2003 10

Results • Decision making under uncertainty is a reality and will continue to be so; must develop ways to deal with it – Focus of most ATM research has been on reducing uncertainty at the data input level – Communication and expression of uncertainty (how, why and to whom) likely to be an increasingly important issue for all categories of service providers, users and pilots – Automation capabilities that support decision makers must also account for uncertainty (e. g. in weather forecasts, demand, capacity) 27 June 2003 11

Results • Better Traffic Flow Management decision making likely will require simultaneous application of multiple strategies – Research has generally focused on single answer solutions (rerouting, ground delay, miles-in-trail) – Increased attention to looking at the cumulative impact of multiple, possible strategies – Need to ensure that individual domain-level solutions/capabilities (e. g. departure management, arrival management, en route integrated impact assessment) will integrate together in coherent concept 27 June 2003 12

Results • Conflict Detection/Resolution – Framework proposed for quantifying conflict resolution operational acceptance based on intended use • Key conclusion: if trying to resolve conflicts out to 20 minutes, need to use a separation criteria (in excess of 5 miles) based on level of resolution performance is needed operationally – Framework proposed for investigating conformance monitoring by posing it as a Fault Detection problem; possible use in assessing alternative conformance monitoring approaches 27 June 2003 13

Results (concluded) • ATM Infrastructure: what might the future look like? – Architecture concept postulated for implementing advanced autonomous aircraft concept of operations • Centralized data repository and security (SWIM) • Centralized decision support on ground • Cost-effective aircraft decision support capabilities • Strong dependence on data link 27 June 2003 14

Issues/Future Steps • Scope and content of future research direction on trajectory prediction – A trajectory prediction action plan as been proposed to the Eurocontrol/FAA R&D committee – Recommend that this initiative be used to agree upon and chart future, joint research • Recommended research areas for additional emphasis: – Decision making under uncertainty – Automation/weather integration • Farther-term ATM concepts for DSTs: do we have a researchgap issue? 27 June 2003 15

Issues/Future Steps • Concern: data link communications development status – Key element of virtually all, proposed future concepts – ATM researchers have key role to play in defining future services roadmap and in quantifying benefits to strengthen Business Case • As more information and capabilities become available to support user decision making, we need to be better able to : – Evaluate the effectiveness of solutions (are they really better? ) – Define criteria by which to make decisions based on new info – Ensure we consider all players • e. g. need to define roles of AOC and pilots in TFM decisions explicitly discussed during our sessions 27 June 2003 16