Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process

Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process Modeling How “Cognitive Computing” can transform BP’s (and how we model them) Rick Hull IBM Research 9 May 2016 1 IBM Confidential

Fundamental characteristics and “centricities” Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 2 Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions Centricity Knowledge-centric Goals-centric Data-centric However, all three aspects are relevant to all three levels IBM Confidential

What is building on/coming after Data Science? “Cognitive Computing” – combining Big Data Analytics with Text/Image Processing, Learning, … § A cognitive system has the following capabilities 4 4 Monitor/Alert: Discovers patterns in data even if they are weak signals (“whispers”) Analyze: Assesses relative value of alternative paths, using statistical evaluations Decide/act: Advises on the optimal action to take Adapts and learns from training and experiences § Important Cognitive System attributes 4 4 4 Ability to incorporate relevant contextual information, including new data Deep natural language analysis, for info ingestion and human interaction Learning in real time as data arrives Can identify similar/related past experiences and learn from them Explain/justify recommendations to humans IPSoft’s Amelia Tata Consultancy “The world’s first neural automation system for the enterprise” 3 IBM Confidential

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies Define Processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • ERP System 4 IBM Confidential • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process

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Three (approximate) Levels of Business Operations & Processes Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 6 Examples • Build vs. Buy decisions • Merger & Acquisition decisions • Launch of a new kind of product • Large IBM deals that transform a company • Fraud investigations in a Bank • Execution of Data Center Outsourcing deals • Back-office processing (e. g. , payroll, F&A, …) • Supply Chain Management • Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), e. g. , IBM GPS IBM Confidential

Characteristics of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 7 • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions IBM Confidential Characteristics

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies Define Processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • ERP System 8 IBM Confidential • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction - Intensive Processes 9 • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions IBM Confidential Centricity Knowledge-centric Goals-centric Data-centric

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction - Intensive Processes 10 IBM Confidential

Challenges of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 11 Characteristics • Coordinating open-ended, highly collaborative processes o Both humans and “cognitive agents” • Decisions made over time, based on extensive acquisition of knowledge • Some best practices but lots of intuition guiding activity • Long-running activity (weeks to months to years) • Many kinds of activity that MAY be relevant • Best practices & patterns available, but buried • Mainly based on ERP systems, but … … many manual processes surrounding them • Lots of variation, evolution over time • In many companies – ad hoc, spreadsheet based IBM Confidential

Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction - Intensive Processes 12 • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions IBM Confidential Challenge Problems

Automating the Pipeline from Knowledge Harvesting to Executable Logic in an Agile, Incremental Fashion Current Mode of Operation Client policies, Govt. regulations Near-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Long-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Client policies, Govt. regulations + Coarse-grained English process descriptions SAP code Desktop Procedures Coordination by hand: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes 13 (new hire, …) Coarse-grained English process descriptions SAP code “Crowd Sourcing” Executable Logic Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, Confidential IBM …) Coarse-grained Automatic English process. Knowledge descriptions Harvesting + SAP code Executable Logic Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …)

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Power of a Good Model << animated slide >> Good models go beyond description – they support action § Selecting the right model for the job matters Example: “Game of 15” Winner: First one to reach exactly 15 with any 3 chips 1 2 3 First model – A is 4 5 and B is Second model – 18 6 7 8 9 – what is B’s move? – B’s move is 6! IBM Confidential