dc5aa05fca013915ec345b8d0b86cdb5.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 18
Dagstuhl Workshop on Fresh Approaches for Business Process Modeling How “Cognitive Computing” can transform BP’s (and how we model them) Rick Hull IBM Research 9 May 2016 1 IBM Confidential
Fundamental characteristics and “centricities” Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 2 Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions Centricity Knowledge-centric Goals-centric Data-centric However, all three aspects are relevant to all three levels IBM Confidential
What is building on/coming after Data Science? “Cognitive Computing” – combining Big Data Analytics with Text/Image Processing, Learning, … § A cognitive system has the following capabilities 4 4 Monitor/Alert: Discovers patterns in data even if they are weak signals (“whispers”) Analyze: Assesses relative value of alternative paths, using statistical evaluations Decide/act: Advises on the optimal action to take Adapts and learns from training and experiences § Important Cognitive System attributes 4 4 4 Ability to incorporate relevant contextual information, including new data Deep natural language analysis, for info ingestion and human interaction Learning in real time as data arrives Can identify similar/related past experiences and learn from them Explain/justify recommendations to humans IPSoft’s Amelia Tata Consultancy “The world’s first neural automation system for the enterprise” 3 IBM Confidential
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies Define Processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • ERP System 4 IBM Confidential • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process
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Three (approximate) Levels of Business Operations & Processes Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 6 Examples • Build vs. Buy decisions • Merger & Acquisition decisions • Launch of a new kind of product • Large IBM deals that transform a company • Fraud investigations in a Bank • Execution of Data Center Outsourcing deals • Back-office processing (e. g. , payroll, F&A, …) • Supply Chain Management • Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), e. g. , IBM GPS IBM Confidential
Characteristics of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 7 • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions IBM Confidential Characteristics
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid • Rapid exploration/ingestion of broad corpora of relevant (unstructured) information • Decision-making based on learned knowledge • Goals-based dynamic planning Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes • (Enable guided collaboration of numerous autonomous agents) Govt Reg’s Corp. Policies Define Processes Care & Feeding of ERP System • ERP System 8 IBM Confidential • “Read” regulations and policies … … and map into processes • Capture “Digital Exhaust” … … and learn processes • Move from Spreadsheets to Case Mgmt and Business Rules … … so that humans can examine and tune auto-learned process
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction - Intensive Processes 9 • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions IBM Confidential Centricity Knowledge-centric Goals-centric Data-centric
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Cognitive Computing is …. Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction - Intensive Processes 10 IBM Confidential
Challenges of the different levels Workforce Pyramid Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction. Intensive Processes 11 Characteristics • Coordinating open-ended, highly collaborative processes o Both humans and “cognitive agents” • Decisions made over time, based on extensive acquisition of knowledge • Some best practices but lots of intuition guiding activity • Long-running activity (weeks to months to years) • Many kinds of activity that MAY be relevant • Best practices & patterns available, but buried • Mainly based on ERP systems, but … … many manual processes surrounding them • Lots of variation, evolution over time • In many companies – ad hoc, spreadsheet based IBM Confidential
Opportunities for “Cognitive Computing” Workforce Pyramid Characteristics • Coordination/Collaboration • Decisions on Knowledge • Very ad hoc, intuitive Design & Strategy Support Judgement. Intensive Processes Transaction - Intensive Processes 12 • Long-running • Many kinds of activities • Best practices hidden • Spreadsheets • Care & feeding of ERP • Variation, Evolution • Spreadsheets • Text-based process descriptions IBM Confidential Challenge Problems
Automating the Pipeline from Knowledge Harvesting to Executable Logic in an Agile, Incremental Fashion Current Mode of Operation Client policies, Govt. regulations Near-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Long-term focus of “Ops Accelerator” Client policies, Govt. regulations + Coarse-grained English process descriptions SAP code Desktop Procedures Coordination by hand: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes 13 (new hire, …) Coarse-grained English process descriptions SAP code “Crowd Sourcing” Executable Logic Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, Confidential IBM …) Coarse-grained Automatic English process. Knowledge descriptions Harvesting + SAP code Executable Logic Coordination by machine: • Monthly runs • Ancillary processes (new hire, …)
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Backup 17 IBM Confidential
Power of a Good Model << animated slide >> Good models go beyond description – they support action § Selecting the right model for the job matters Example: “Game of 15” Winner: First one to reach exactly 15 with any 3 chips 1 2 3 First model – A is 4 5 and B is Second model – 18 6 7 8 9 – what is B’s move? – B’s move is 6! IBM Confidential
dc5aa05fca013915ec345b8d0b86cdb5.ppt