• D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
UNEP and Climate Change, Development and Official Statistics In the Asia-Pacific Region 11 -12 Dec 2008, Seoul Korea Jinhua Zhang Early Warning and Assessment-Asia & the Pacific United Nations Environment Programme Bangkok, Thailand • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Contents ü UNEP ü Science of climate change ü Asia-Pacific’s Vulnerability to climate change ü UNEP strategy on climate change ü Role of National Statistics Office in combating climate change • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
UNEP Mandate From 1972 “…to keep under review the state of the global environment…” What are Governments’ needs – Scientific credibility, policy relevance, legitimacy • • • Ozone Assessment Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Global Environment Outlook • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
IPCC Conclusions Warming of the climate system Warmest 12 years on record Increasing in global average air and ocean temperatures Rising global average sea level Reductions of snow and ice • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
GEO 4 Unprecedented environmental change is indisputable – The red areas on these two images show the expansion of seasonal melting of the Greenland ice sheet from 1992 to 2002. – The Yellow line shows the temperature increased by 1ºC from 1900 to 2000 • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
GEO 4 Asia and the Pacific is vulnerable to climate change Climate change will impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia. Pacific • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Asia: Water Availability & Climate Change Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South. East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050 s. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Asia: Health & Climate Change Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Asia: Water Availability & Climate Change Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South. East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050 s. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Asia: Population & Climate Change. Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated megadelta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some megadeltas, flooding from the rivers. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
South Pacific. The Most vulnerable states …… • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
New UNEP Strategy United Nations Environment Programme The Medium-term Strategy (MTS) 2010 -2013 The 6 cross-cutting thematic priorities are: • Climate change • Disasters and conflict • Ecosystems management • Environmental governance • Harmful substances and hazardous waste • Resource efficiency – sustainable consumption and production • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
UNEP MTS-Climate Change The UNEP objective is to Strengthen the ability of countries to integrate climate change responses into national development processes. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
UNEP MTS-Climate Change The UNEP expected accomplishments are: (a) That adaptation planning, financing and cost-effective preventative actions are increasingly incorporated into national development processes that are supported by scientific information, integrated climate impact assessments and local climate data; (b) That countries make sound policy, technology, and investment choices that lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and potential cobenefits, with a focus on clean and renewable energy sources, energy efficiency and energy conservation; • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
UNEP MTS-Climate Change The UNEP expected accomplishments are: (c) That improved technologies are deployed and obsolescent technologies phased out, financed through private and public sources including the Clean Development Mechanism; (d) That increased carbon sequestration occurs through improved land use, reduced deforestation and reduced land degradation; (e) That country policymakers and negotiators, civil society and the private sector have access to relevant climate change science and information for decision-making. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Challenges ahead 20 years debating the science, impacts of climate change. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
UNEP in response to the needs Manual for the Development of National and City Assessment Reports on Climate Change The Manual has been piloted in Bangkok (Thailand), Mongolia and Viet Nam in 2008. Initial water vulnerability assessments in North East Asia, South Asia and South East Asia • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
China Climate Change Partnership Framework Assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in Western China and the South East coastal zone Western China (Himalayan region): six provinces Southeast Coastal areas: five provinces Assess the impacts of glacier retreating and rising sea level on the local communities and ecosystems, their social economic system/infrastructure. Assess the adaptation capacity to climate change. Pilots on adaptation strategies/measures into local development and policy framework. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
The Philippines Climate Change Partnership Framework R aise awareness on impacts of rising sea level on the local communities and ecosystems, their social economic system/infrastructure. Develop adaptation capacity to climate change. Pilots on adaptation strategies/measures into local development and policy framework. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
East Asia Regional Seas Programme The Coordinating Body on the Seas of East Asia (COBSEA): An intergovernmental grouping of ten countries: Australia, Cambodia, People’s Republic of China, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand Vietnam Pilot projects on how to best integrate climate change adaptation measures into integrated coastal zone planning through the implementation of a pilot project in a selected costal district. • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
IPCC conclusions on GHGs warming potentials • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
IPCC Conclusions on Sector Potentials for Mitigation • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
IPCC Conclusions on Regional Distribution of GHGs A ssess the impacts of glacier retreating and rising sea level on the local communities and ecosystems, their social economic system/infrastructure. Assess the adaptation capacity to climate change. Pilots on adaptation strategies/measures into local development and policy framework. Public awareness, institutional capacity building on adaptation and South-South cooperation • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Data for Climate Change Adaptation Water: Water availability, floods and droughts Number of people exposed to water stress Ecosystems: Species number and risk of extinction Coastal wetlands, area Coral bleaching Species range shifts and wildfire risk Food: Productivity of cereals Local impacts on small holders Coasts: Number of people exposed to flooding each year Damage from floods and storms Average rate of sea level rise Health: Changed distribution of some disease vectors Number of people exposed to malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and other infectious diseases Morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, and droughts Burden on health services (expenditures) • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Data for Climate Change Mitigation General: GHG emission trends (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6) Population, urban and rural, poverty, migration Land cover and land use change, land degradation GDP and PPP, sector value added, household consumption Energy: Energy use, supply and intensity (by sector), production and use of renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biofuels), nuclear power, natural gas, coal, oil, gas. Transport: Number of hybrid and cleaner diesel vehicles, transport volume by rail/road/water/air/non-motorized Buildings: Energy consumption standards, use of energy-saving bulbs, improved cook stoves, isolation Industry: Material recycling and substitution rates, heat recovery Agriculture: Improved crop and grazing land management Forestry: Reforestation, forest management, avoided deforestation Waste management: Landfill methane recovery, composting of organic wastes, waste disposal, treatment and recycling, waste water treatment • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Additional data and indicators for NSO Air emission reporting, including underlying energy and activity data Data on infrastructure development (roads etc) and building volumes (houses, offices, industrial plants etc) Use of energy-saving technology (bulbs, building isolation, hybrid cars etc) Use of certified wood products Use of emission trading and climate compensation schemes Volume data on transport modes (motorized and non-motorized) Material recycling and substitution Water use Land/vegetation cover and ecosystems areas (wetlands, coasts) Species extinction, migration patterns Mortality and morbidity (specific diseases) Number and extent of natural disasters (floods, fires, storms, droughts, heat & cold waves) and the damage they cause Budgets and expenditures on health services, disaster prevention & damage repair • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Priorities for NSO • Data on infrastructure development and building volumes (houses, offices, industrial plants etc) • Use of energy-saving technology (bulbs, building isolation, hybrid cars etc) • Use of certified wood products • Use of emission trading and climate compensation schemes • Volume data on transport modes (motorized and non-motorized) • Material recycling and substitution • Number and extent of natural disasters (floods, fires, storms, droughts, heat & cold waves) and the damage they cause • Budgets and expenditures on health services, disaster prevention & damage repairs • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
International cooperation ØBuild or improve an environment and climate change module in conventional sectoral statistics and existing macro- and sectoral statistical Standards ØPromote technical assistance in countries to increase their capability to provide reliable and timely environment statistics for use in climate change analysis ØDevelop standard tables for the collection of statistics for the monitoring of emission trading schemes and other mitigation measures ØAssist NSOs to establish or improve the collection of a set of statistics on emission trading schemes through the standard statistical tables; • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O
Thank you • D R I V I N G F O R R E S U L T S : S T R E N G T H E N I N G T H E S C I E N C E B A S I S A N D C A T A L Y T I C R O