Current Marketing Issues Seminar BA 635 Dr. Ed Forrest
The Essence of Marketing Anything/Everyt hing one does to facilitate exchange
ERGO Whatever impacts Why-What-Where-When. How Exchange occurs… is (or becomes) an Issue…
Marketing Issues in Perspective Marketing- part of Business & Business - part of Society Marketing Business Society “Societal Change” creates “issues” for Business… which creates
Thus- in order to identify- anticipate- understand Marketing Issues in particular One needs to identify-anticipateunderstand Societal Change in general
Society Defined: A group of humans broadly distinguished by: Ømutual interests , Øparticipation in characteristic relationships , Øshared institutions& , Øa commonculture
In the final analysis marketing strategy is formulated to address… Patterns of/changes THUSto: human interests, relationships, institutions & culture… …become marketing issues Hence- our search for marketing issues begins w/ examination of…
Course Organizing Paradigm “… begin in a more or less inductive or empirical fashion by identifying what all civilizations have in common ” Alvin Toffler, Previews & Premises (William Morrow & Co. New York, 1983) Page 197
All civilizations have : energy system… a method ofproducing goods & services… a system fordistributing those goods & an services… Energy, production & distribution are all … tied together…to form a Techno. Sphere
“All societies have some sort of communication infrastructure–
Every civilization has a Socio. Sphere consisting of interrelated social institutions, associations, reference affinity groups
‘Psycho. Sphere ’ intimate relationships, subjectivitypersonality All societies operate within a Bio. Sphere& have a Power. Sphere -authority allocated thru formal & informal political institutions
“Put together these spheres encompass most all that goes on in any civilization or society” POWER SOCIO PSYCHO TECHNO BIO INFO
When change rips across all Spheres… You have a paradigm shift in principles/processes that define a civilization… SOCIO PSYCHO BIO INFO TECHNO
Our Place in Time September 6, 2012
Nearing end 65 year cycle defined as Information Age-abt to enter Symbiotic Age Hominid Age Homo Sapiens 2, 000 100, 000 yrs Tribal Age 25, 000 yrs Agricultural Age 10, 000 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500 -1770) Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770 -1950) Information Age 65 yrs (1950 -2015) Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2015 -2045) Singularity ~ 2045
"In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. --The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists. " — Eric Hoffer
As early as 1969 Peter Drucker foresaw an “age of Discontinuity” w/ upcoming shifts: From manufacturing based economy to knowledge based economy From primary focus on engineering & manufacturing to primary focus on information gathering, analysis & marketing Drucker, Peter F. The Age of Discontinuity. Harper & Row Publishers, Inc: New York, 1969.
In 1988 Drucker wrote “The Coming of the New Organization” ¢ “by 2008 successful organizations “will be knowledge-based … composed largely of specialists who direct … their own performance through organized feedback… from colleagues, customers & headquarters. ” ¢
In early ’ 70’s Daniel Bell foresaw coming post-industrial society-- that would: 1. Shift from a goods-producing to service economy 2. Be dominated by professional & technical class 3. Be knowledge driven "Coming of Post-Industrial 4. & Future oriented Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting; 1973 Pre-Ind. Key Resource Industrial Post-Ind. Land Machine Knowledge Corporation Lab Socio-locus Farm
1980 - Toffler’s ¢ First rd 3 Wave ~8000 BC Hunter Gatherer To Agricultural Age ¢ Second Wave ~1750’s Agricultural Age To Industrial Age ¢ Third Wave ~1950’s Industrial Age To Information Age Wave
Computers emptied factories & gave us paperwork in offices As Machines emptied countryside. . . & gave us factorywork in cities
rd Wave of 3 Civilization rd iteration of Industrial 3 Revolution rd iteration of Web 3 Evolution rd iteration of Marketing 3 Mind-Set ~ 2 decades away from the Singularity
Social Wave Theory: When all Spheres totally transformed a new Civilizational-Wave over preceding waves
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Disintermediated Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Power. Sphere Inherent Elected Semi-direct Psycho. Sphere Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Authority. . . Identity. . . .
1 st Wave 2 nd Wave 3 rd Wave KEY COMMODITY LAND • Basis of economy • Life organized ‘round village • Economy Decentralized • Every village produce most of its necessities CAPITAL • Like land- a zero sum commodity* • Necessary for control of Production-Labor & Raw materials Information Uniquely different from previous key commodities
What’s so different about information ? • Expandable- infinity expansive commodity • Transportable no longer matters geogra • Compressible can be summarized, encoded • *Sharable Value - increases when shared
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Disintermediated Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Inherent Elected Semi-direct Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Power. Sphere Authority. . . Psycho. Sphere Identity. . . .
Production The Pin: New Technologies powered by New Energy sources enabled mass production… Adam Smith -1776 -w/ the pin lesson & concept of “manufacturing” Applied in 1908 by Ford in production of One craftsman = ~20 pins/day Break into 18 steps 10 workers-each 1 -2 specialized tasks = 4, 800 pins/day
Division of Labor The Model T Requires 7, 882 tasks requiring: Characterized by: • Hi energy input • Hi waste pollution “ 949 strong men 3, 338 ordinary men 670 legless 2, 637 one legged 2 armless 715 one armed 10 blind men”* • Low skill • Repetitive work • Standardized goods • Centralized control *autobiography
Today: Production Labor -Automated Scale. Customized/Personalized
Techno. Sphere -Energy 1 st Wave: MANIMAL winches, wedges, catapults, winepresses, levers & hoists – amplified by man & animals 2 nd Wave Electromechanical – “w/ moving parts, belts, bearings & bolts– clacking & ratcheting along”
Initial Electro = Hydro & Direct Current necessitated Local Sourcing Alternating allowed Central Utilities w/ Long-D Dist.
ons & licati , App essing ge -Proc Info Stora 2010 2020 2030
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“for past 30 years searching for a new paradigm. . I came to realize --great economic revolutions in history occur when new communication technologies converge with new energy systems”
IR 1. 0 - 19 th century Steam-powered print technology became the communication medium to manage the coal-fired rail infrastructure and the incipient national markets of the 1 st Industrial Revolution
IR 2. 0 - 20 th century Electronic communications--the telephone and later, radio television--became the communication medium to manage & market the oil-powered auto age & mass consumer culture of the 2 nd Industrial Revolution
IR 3. 0 - 21 st century …”mid-1990 s…a new convergence of communication and energy was in the offing. Internet technology & renewable energies create powerful new infrastructure for a 3 rd Industrial Revolution (TIR) that would change the
Info & Energy Internets In coming era, hundreds of millions of people will produce their own green energy in their homes, offices, and factories and share it with each other in an "energy Internet, “* just like we now create and share information online. ¢ The democratization of energy will bring with ¢ it a fundamental reordering of human relationships, impacting the very way we conduct business, govern society, educate our children, and engage in civic life. *Smart Grid
Lateral- Collaboration ¢ “The Third Industrial Revolution is the last of the great Industrial Revolutions and will lay the foundational infrastructure for an emerging collaborative age. ¢ In the coming half century, the conventional, centralized business operations of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions will increasingly be subsumed by the distributed business practices of the Third Industrial Revolution; and the traditional, hierarchical organization of economic and political power will give way to lateral power organized nodally across society. ”
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Disintermediated Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Power. Sphere Inherent Elected Semi-direct Psycho. Sphere Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Authority. . . Identity. . . .
The INFOSPHERE 1 st Wave 2 nd Wave Interpersonal Mass Face to face Mediated 1: 1 1: Many Augmented by: • Listening post • Distance Runner • Town Crier • Pigeon • Pony Express • Newspaper • Magazine • Film • Radio • TV 3 rd Wave Interactive Virtual Any 1: Every 1 Networking: many-tomany Internet • Wi. Fi • Cellular • Satellite
Qualitative Evolution:
Sites = readonly static pages & files . . click a page & wait. Sites were huge, bloated & buggy The paradigm=l folders & directories… Marketing rooted in Mass Web 1. 0 (‘ 90’s)
Web 1. 0 vs. 2. 0 Web 1. 0 Web 2. 0 passive user= Only Click& Get “content” shared – interactive Exchange; “Read” Mode “Page” “static” Web browser Primary content “Client Server” Web Coders Architecture State Viewed through… Content Created by… “Write” & Contribute “Post / record” “dynamic” Browsers & RSS Readers “Web Services” Everyone
• Enrich the structure of the Web o Improve -search, collaboration, publishing, advertising o Enables applications -more integrated & intelligent • Transform Web from fileserver to database
The semantic web connects: Information 1 + People 2 + Everything else 3…. . Web 1. 0 Web 2. 0 Web 3. 0 - Companies Places Interests Emails People Products Services Web Pages Activities Evolution Web 1. 0, Web 2. 0 to Web 3. 0 Projects Events Documents Multimedia Groups
l. Intro to the Sematic Web -for noobs The semantic web Microformats… …pieces of code that allow the browser to interpret the
l. Resource Description Framework l(RDF) / W 3 C Semantic Web Activity
The Symbiotic Age A time when computers “speak our language. ” ¢ A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes. ” ¢ A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. ¢ A time when humans and machines ¢
Current Marketing Issues Seminar
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Disintermediated Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Power. Sphere Inherent Elected Semi-direct Psycho. Sphere Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Authority. . . Identity. . . .
2 nd Wave vs. 3 rd Wave Marketing Focuses on Share of Market 2 nd Wave-Mass Marketing Develops Products Finds Customers for Products Focuses on Share of Customer 3 rd Wave-CR Marketing Develops Customers Finds Products for Customers
Dramatic Shift in Marketing Reality
Currently moving on to next iteration of Principles & Practices of Marketing Evolving from E- Commerce … to We – Commerce … to Me- Commerce …
Marketing 1. 0, 2. 0, 3. 0 (You. Tube) 3 rd Wave: Sub-Waves 1. 0: ~<-’ 04 2. 0: ~’ 04 -’ 11 3. 0: ’ 11 ~”? ? Primary Focus Product. Centered Customer. Oriented Valuesdriven Mrktg Comm Target Mind: Heart: Spirit: Sell-Product attributes Sell-How Product will Product make you feel Benefits You & World Principal Objective creating economic value creating personal value creating Societal value
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Specialized Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Inherent Elected Semi-direct Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Power. Sphere Authority. . . Psycho. Sphere Identity. . . .
The Socio. Sphere Element 1 st wave Relationships Spiritual Contractual Mutual Family Extende d Nuclear Expanded Education Elitist Mass/ Life. Long Business 2 nd wave 3 rd wave Standardized Ind. /Partn. Corp. Conglom
Relationships W/ Divorce of Production & Consumption— Relationships became set of transactions Society not based on kinship friendship, tribal allegiancesbut on contracts 2 nd wave emergence of the Company Man
The Family: From Mother Hubbard to Ozzie & Harriet to Octo-Mom 1 st Wave: Extended Family- Aunts & Uncles; Grand Pa & Ma: Inlaws & In-breds under one roof 2 nd Wave: Nuclear Norm (working Pa, housekeeping Ma + 2 kids, a dog & BBQ) everybody else own unit or institutionalized 3 rd Wave: Aggregate. HH’s: Mother-Other; Poly-Parents 1980’s: By <7% US-HH’s nuclear; 20% Single, 1: 7 single Mom (1: 4 Urban); in one Chicago neighborhood 86 different adult configurations…
Education: From Athens, to Ohio State to Phoenix 1 st Wave: For Privileged 2 nd Wave: For Masses: w/ Standardized Curricula Texts & Tests w/ Bell Curve 3 rd Wave: For Individual. Life-Long/ Personalized in Time & Mode of delivery
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Specialized Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Power. Sphere Inherent Elected Semi-direct Psycho. Sphere Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Authority. . . Identity. . . .
Meta-convergence: “the tightening of connections among spheres that have hitherto been more independent” "Culture, religion, politics, environment, ethics, are all going to interpenetrate one another to an extent never before seen, and they will, in turn, penetrate business in all sorts of strange new ways…“ Riding the third wave: A conversation with Alvin Toffler
The 21 st Century- Spherical ILO-list Meta Convergence 450+ Activist Org. W 3 -Religious & -NGO’s- IMF, sites Secular WTO, World “promulg Groups ating Bank Ecological impact policy Labor conditions initiatives Pollution ” -Industry & -Local, Health & safety concerns Business Associations Human rights abuses Child labor Working in-w/ anti-democratic regimes Globalization State & National Gov’t Agencies Corporate, -Special Interest activist – & Affinity groups Shareholder organizations
Today's Managers must balance the bottom-line against the ideals – “--- want max profit for shareholders …with honesty in business practices, …safety in the workplace, . . and also serve larger environmental & social issues. ”
Stark Contrast w/ 2 nd wave Mantra: The only business of business is business-Milton Friedman A successful business satisfies enough customers at a high enough price so as to return a profit to those who have invested in the entrepreneurial …to the activity… customers extent that express satisfaction in a product or a service, in continued purchases, the producer serves the "public interest. "
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Specialized Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Power. Sphere Inherent Elected Semi-direct Psycho. Sphere Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Authority. . . Identity. . . .
Generational Imprint as we Come of age Each generation molded by world events that occur during its formative years. … distinct historical experiences create characteristics that stay w/ people thruout rest of their lives Generational Marketing: Reaching the Hearts and Minds of Consumers http: //circman. com/ar/marketing_generational_marketing_reaching/
Values are shaped by: Generational Life Experiences Called “Markers” l Events l Culture l Politics l Economy l Technology l Personalities February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 76
• Generational mindsets … are major factors in determining what & how consumers buy… Common Experienc es Common AIO’s, values, tastes, style. . . l. The notion a group of people bound together by sharing experience of common historical events 1 st introduced by Karl Mannheim - early 1920 s Common responses to marketing mix variables
Generations Variously Named & Dated: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Matures – < 1946 Baby Boomer – 1946 -1953 Generation Jones – 1954 -1964 Generation Rerun – 1965 -1975 Generation Xceptional – 19761986 6. Generation M – 1987 -1995 7. Millennials – 1996 and beyond Depression cohort (1912 to 1921) THE GI GENERATION: 1901 -1924 THE SILENT GENERATION: 19251942 BABY BOOMERS: 1943 -1960 GENERATION X: 1961 -1981 GENERATION Y: 1982 -PRESENT WWII cohort (1922 to 1927) Post-war cohort (1928 to 1945) Baby Boomer cohort #1 (1946 to 1954) Baby Boomer cohort #2 1955 to 1965) Generation X cohort (1965 to 1976)
Waves of change affect different generations in different ways
Rode the Last Wave GI Silent Caught Between Waves Grow Up w/ New Wave Gen X Depression War Baby 1925 1935 1945 Boomer 1955 1960 1965 1975 Riding the wave Gen Y 1985 2000
For the X &Y generations: Increasingly weaned in & imprinted on post-industrial “ 3 rd wave” society Gen X cohort Psyche : quest for emotional security, independent, informality (Y) Millennium Generation Psyche : quest for physical security & safety, extreme patriotism, heightened fears, acceptance of change
February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 82
February 08, 2005 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 83
Toffler's Waves Agricultural Industrial Technological Key Commodity Land Capital Data Man-imal Fossil Bio-Technology. . . Widgets Electromechanical Digital/Genetic Production. . . . Crafted/Self Use Mass/Exchange Prosumptive Distribution. . . Restricted Mass Disintermediated Marketing 1: 1/ Barter Product-centric Consumer-Centric Info. Sphere Interpersonal Mass-Mediated Interactive Spiritual Contractual Mutual/Networked Indiv. /Partnership Corporation/Bureaucratic Conglomerate/Ad Hoc Extended Nuclear Expanded Elitist In Mass/Standardized Specialized/Life-Long Power. Sphere Inherent Elected Semi-direct Psycho. Sphere Inherited Divided Self Defined/Discovered Techno. Sphere Energy. . . . Communication Socio. Sphere Relationships Business Family. . . Education Authority. . . Identity. . . . tely ple om iety C Soc ent ffer Di tely ple ating om per C nt O es ere Diff rincipl P
l Old Economy – Manufacturing driven ¢ New Economy – Information driven Ø Standardization & Ø Differentiation & Duplication customization Ø Economies of ØEconomies of Scope- Scale- Mrkt Share/sales volume Versatility –Long Tail Inventories, Marginal Prdtn & Dist. Costs; Networked Customer base Ø Hierarchical - Ø Diversified -Adhocracy Bureaucratic
2 ND WAVE DISTRIBUTION Completely Physical, Highly Intermediated Supply-Chain of Silos… Sales rate volatility Production rate volatility
Supply chain management substitutes information for inventory
Goods & Services Sold ; Distributed Online
January 3, 2000, page S 1 “There’s a new economy out there – and it looks nothing like the old one”
At Least Ten Key Differences Old Economy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Tangible assets Rigid-Vertical Org. Protected markets Competition Distribution hierarchy Rigid barriers Standardization Domestic Prdt-Life Cycle=Years Seller power New Economy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Intangible assets Fluid & Modular Open markets Hypercompetition Direct to customer Flexible entry Personalization Global PLC=months Buyer power
“The new economy is not just a dot. com thing. It’s not just about high tech, computers or microchips. - it is about new ways of doing things in every industry, every government. It’s about speed, quality, flexibility, knowledge and networks.
The forces of next great wave of change—are evident: “We are in the midsthem : on ow t icti e kn ured w pred of redefiningnour s. , as fig bs A o o basic or be recabout r llar j ideas ew yea te-co ear ext f whi sapp whattenterprise t&s dead of % the n di i i us t 80 either n& j s organization Over and --in t lea , will know n e “A y nitio evens being over. a we'v g human tod reco d ent a wn it is m eyon b ploy e kno are r em we'v a -coll ity as e one” -- how value about g Whit secur is created -- how Job careers are http: //www. tompeters. com/reimagine/index. php pursued”-2006
Re-imagine!: Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age tompeters. com “ -- that shift will accelerate as technological change accelerates…” “It's all so strange and different that I don't even know what a
Likely jobs w/in next 10 years • • • Director of Emerging Thought Chief Imagination Officer Hacker Relations Manager Have Human Interface Manager Existed Valuer of Intangible Assets February 08, 2005 since 2003 Lax Natarajan & Sully Romero Ordonez 94
In near future even have/need jobs? Within a quarter century, nonbiological intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence
The Singularity is Near *Kurzweil Explains the Coming Singularity
This past week! ¢ technology will replace 80 percent of doctors ¢ The future of work in America
The Singularity 2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal By Lev Grossman Feb. 10, 2011
How Accurate are such Predictions & Depictions?
“Technological Progress” is indeed Very Predictable !
¢ ¢ ¢ Every 18 months- double CPU power- for ½ the price (Moore’s Law) Every 12 months double fiber network capacity for ½ the price Every 9 months double wireless capacity for ½ the price
SCIENCE | August 31, 2010 Advances Offer Path to Shrink Computer Chip Researchers report can overcome barrier to the continued rapid miniaturization of computer memory. The announcements significant -preserves validity- Moore’s Law -- industry has ability to double number transistors printed on a wafer of silicon every 18 months.
- observed time intervals between significant techno-advances …. 3 million years ago collective rock throwing; early stone use 1. 5 million years ago lever, wedge, inclined plane 500, 000 years ago control of fire 50, 000 years ago bow and arrow; fine tools 5, 000 years ago wheel and axle; sail 500 years ago printing press with movable type; rifle
“Progress” Not only S rity ngula i Predictable … it is Exponentia l
The Law of Accelerating Returns explains why TECHNOLOGY & EVOLUTIONARY processes progress in an exponential fashion
BIOLOGICAL –mirrors- TECHNOLOGICAL evolution Years Ago Billions Generations Ago Physical Technological 12 Big Bang (MEST) 100, 000 Speech 11. 5 Milky Way (Atoms) 750 Agriculture 8 Sun (Energy) 500 Writing 4. 5 Earth (Molecules) 400 Libraries 3. 5 Bacteria (Cell) 40 Universities 2. 5 Sponge (Body) 24 Printing 0. 7 Clams (Nerves) 16 Accurate Clocks 0. 5 Trilobites (Brains) 5 Telephone 0. 2 Bees (Swarms) 4 Radio 0. 100 Mammals 3 Television 0. 002 Humans, Tools & Clans Co-evolution 2 Computer 1 Internet 0 AI & Nano-tech
Law of Accelerating Returns
Law of Acceleration
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