Cross Cutting Issues An Australian Perspective Neil Ferry

Cross Cutting Issues: An Australian Perspective Neil Ferry Manager, Projections AGO

Australian Emissions Projections: Key Features • • • Multi models for key sectors Inter agency process and wide consultation BAU (NM) for most sectors measures increasingly incorporated in models Scenario based approach to uncertainty.

Multi model approach • Diversity of inputs, especially in Stationary Energy sector (four models currently) – Overall 10 modelling groups in 2003 projections – Mix of bottom up and top down models – Land use change estimated in house by National Carbon Accounting System

Diversity in 2003 SE Projection

Multi model approach • Diversity of views, reflecting uncertainty – Focus on ‘conscious diversity’ • Reconciling different models results issue • 2004 focus on key drivers and explaining projection differences • Impact of changing models

Wide Stakeholder Involvement • Inter Agency committee oversights projections prepared by AGO • Consultation with industry and states • Multi models promote input diversity

Aust Projections Scenarios • With Measures (Best Estimate) -High and Low scenarios for sectors • BAU (NM) for most sectors • No WAM

BAU (NM) Issue • ‘Only 9 countries report (full) NM/BAU’ – ‘many parties provide NM for CO 2 for energy’ (OECD) • Key issue is‘modelling the effect of measures on emissions’ • Moving to integrate measures more into modelling

Modelling measures • Until 2004, SE modellers only included BAU/NM and a few measures – WM was produced by separately adjusting for measures estimates – Measures defined as post 1990 greenhouse related policies • Moving to integrate separate measures estimates with full ‘with measures’ energy modelling

Measures issues • Estimating measures impact difficult • Adjusting ‘initial measures optimism’ • Interactions between new and old measures – And different jurisdictions • Multi-models makes estimating measures harder • Continuous improvement to measures and projections

Policy modelling • Generally done separately, though with same models – ABARE’s GTEM, MSG’s G CUBED • Different models, different impacts • Integration with existing measures

Uncertainty • Emphasis on plausible ‘High-Low scenarios – understanding ‘what ifs’ rather than Monte Carlo approach – Link to Key Driver analysis and understanding differences between model projections.

Aust Projections Products ‘Tracking to the Kyoto Target 2003’ -plus sectoral projections papers At: http: //www. greenhouse. gov. au/projections/ind ex. html