cf62f930a478442ec7ac49a19503a15e.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 32
Credit Suisse 4 th Annual Truck Builders Conference March 2, 2006
Forward Looking Statements Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions and these slides, include statements that we believe are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. All of our statements, other than statements of historical fact, including statements regarding Oshkosh Truck’s future financial position, business strategy, targets, projected sales, costs, earnings, capital expenditures and debt levels, and plans and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. In addition, forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of words such as “expect, ” “intend, ” “estimates, ” “anticipate, ” “believe, ” “should, ” “plans, ” or similar words. We cannot give any assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Some factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations include the accuracy of assumptions made with respect to our expectations for fiscal 2006 and beyond, the Company’s ability to continue the turnaround of the business of the Geesink Norba Group sufficiently to support its valuation resulting in no non-cash impairment charge for Geesink Norba Group goodwill, the Company’s ability to increase its operating income margins at Mc. Neilus, the ability of the Company to recover steel and component cost increases from its customers, risks associated with a three-phase enterprise resource planning system implementation at Mc. Neilus, the expected level of U. S. Department of Defense procurement of the Company’s products and services, the cyclical nature of the Company’s commercial and fire and emergency markets, risks related to reductions in government expenditures, the uncertainty of government contracts, the challenges of identifying, completing and integrating acquisitions, the success of the launch of the Revolution drum, and risks associated with international operations. Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in our filings with the SEC, including our Form 8 -K filed February 2, 2006. Except as set forth in such Form 8 -K, we disclaim any obligation to update such forward-looking statements. 2
Oshkosh Truck Corporation • Largest global specialty truck and truck body company • Leading brands in each market • Successful growth record and strategies to sustain growth • Driving force in bringing new technologies to market 3
Investment Highlights Driving Forward Strong ROIC Share Price Superior Historic Returns And, a positive outlook 4
Significant Competitive Advantages • Leading brand positions • Extensive distribution capabilities • Flexible and efficient manufacturing • Proprietary component technologies • Strong balance sheet 5
Market Leadership Rank Heavy Defense Trucks Medium Marine Trucks Fire Apparatus Wreckers and Carriers Airport Products Ambulances Rear-Discharge Concrete Mixers Front-Discharge Concrete Mixers Concrete Batch Plants Refuse Truck Bodies - U. S. - Europe #1 #1 #1 #2 #1 #3 #1 #1/#2 #1 Estimated Market Share 100% 31% 25% 79% 8% 75% 51% 48% 27% 20% Source: Company estimates of its fiscal 2004 U. S. market share only, except for refuse truck bodies - Europe. 6
Core Growth Strategies • Investing in innovation – Lead in new product development in all markets • Embracing lean principles – Supported by chartered cost reduction teams • Pursuing strategic acquisitions – Expand globally – New platforms and tuck-ins ROIC . 2% 11. 7% 11. 5% 14. 5% 18. 3% 20. 5% 7
Driving Growth: Demand • Growing requirements for remanufacturing/modularity • Continuing emphasis on homeland security • Improving municipal markets • Continuing strength in concrete placement and refuse in advance of 2007 engine emissions standards change 8
Impact of Engine Emissions Standards Charge • Usually a lag of 5 or more years before changes to engine emission standards affect new defense truck manufacturing • Generally, limited impact on infrequent fire apparatus and airport product purchasers – Largest cities most effected – Emphasis on homeland security spending probably offsets impact • Carriers, wreckers and ambulances generally more affected 9
Impact of Engine Emissions Standards Charge • 5% - 10% pre-buy anticipated in fiscal 2006 • Estimated fiscal 2007 impact: – 5% to 10% pre-buy in first quarter – Downturn thereafter • Fiscal 2003 post-change downturn of 15% to 20% for vocational markets • Over-the-road downturn estimated at ± 40% • Expect lower vocational market downturn than over-the-road downturn • No impact on European refuse business • Anticipating relatively flat commercial segment operating income from fiscal 2006 to fiscal 2007 10
Driving Growth: Company Tactics Price Up, Cost Down • Commercial segment turnaround in progress – European refuse profitable in Q 4 2005; expected to be profitable throughout fiscal 2006 – Anticipate domestic commercial margins to improve by Q 2 of fiscal 2006 • Reduce cost structure through lean – Chartered cost reduction teams – Rationalize supply base 11
Driving Growth: Company Tactics • Additional new products in the pipeline – Launching at upcoming trade shows • New business initiatives – Expanding defense service capabilities globally – Opening sales, service, procurement and M&A office in Beijing 12
Driving Growth: Acquisitions • M & A pipeline improving • Capitalizing on de-levered balance sheet • Criteria: – Market leaders with either #1 or #2 market position – Accretive in first year; strong ROIC – Significant potential synergies 13
Fire & Emergency Annual Market: 5, 500 units (est. ) • Strong consistent performance • Pierce growth outpaces industry: – Pierce* • 3 -year CAGR: 2. 8% • 10 -year CAGR: 6. 1% – Industry* • 3 -year CAGR: (1. 1%) • 10 -year CAGR: 1. 1% 2004 Market Share KME 10% ALF 8% E-One 22% Rosenbauer 8% Other 21% • Investing $18. 5 million to expand Pierce facilities • Jerr. Dan and BAI integration on schedule – Look for new products at trade shows Pierce 31% Source: Company estimates of U. S. fire apparatus sales and market shares * Company estimates based on units 14
Defense • Potential for significant troop levels in Iraq for next four years • Remanufacturing and armor are long-term priorities – New facility opened summer of 2005 • Modularity initiative expected to drive new truck volume • Expanding parts and service opportunities • Heavy investment in product development 15
Mc. Neilus & Oshkosh Concrete Placement Annual Market: 7, 000 – 7, 500 units (est. ) Front Discharge 22% • Cement supplies are tight in selected regions* Rear Discharge 78% 2004 Market Share Continental Advance 7% 8% • 75, 000+ mixers in operation Other 16% • Stronger nonresidential construction expected to offset any cooling in residential construction* • Pre-buy expected in 2006 Oshkosh/Mc. Neilus – 69% Source: Company estimates of U. S. unit sales and market shares *Source: Portland Cement Association 16
Mc. Neilus Refuse • 114, 000+ vehicles in operation • Big Three account for nearly 50% of purchases – Increasing purchases to reduce operation and maintenance costs • Municipal demand expected to continue to improve Annual Market: 6, 000 – 6, 500 units (est. ) Multi-Compartment 4% Side Loaders 23% Rear Loaders 47% Front Loaders 26% 2004 Market Share Wittke/Leach 13% Heil 27% La Brie 10% Neway 9% Other 14% Mc. Neilus 27% Source: Company estimates of U. S. unit sales and market shares 17
European Refuse Annual Market: 5, 500 – 6, 000 units (est. ) Minis 8% Side Loaders 13% Other 4% Front Loaders 2% Rear Loaders 73% 2004 Market Share Farid/Brivio 10% Faun 18% OMB 9% Dennis Eagle Ros Roca 9% 7% Heil 4% Other 23% Geesink Norba Group 20% Source: Company estimates of European unit sales and market shares • Industry volumes down 20%; pricing down 5% - 10% • Several unprofitable manufacturers • Business turnaround based solely on cost reduction – Executing on outsourcing through 2006 strategy 18
Driving Force: New Technologies Terra. Max™ HEMTT A 3 • Completed 132 -mile DARPA Grand Challenge desert race • Most commercially viable technology • Objective: Survivability of our troops • Hybrid-electric drive – Potential 20% - 40% fuel savings – Run stealth capability • Enhanced load handling system 19
Driving Force: New Technologies Revolution • First and only composite mixer • 2, 000 lb. weight reduction lowers cost per delivered yard • Front-discharge Revolution launched in January 2006 20
Financial Performance and Targets Sales (in millions) • 9% consolidated operating income margin*, eventually 10% Operating Income Margin • 10% annual organic sales growth, supplemented by acquisitions • >15% EPS growth* • >15% ROIC* ROIC 11. 7% 11. 5% 14. 5% 18. 3% 20. 5% *In a recovery 21
Excellent Financial Trends Fiscal 2001 Dollars in millions Sales -$ - Growth Operating income -$ $1, 445. 3 8. 7% 98. 3 Fiscal 2002 Fiscal 2003 Fiscal 2005 Fiscal 2004 $1, 743. 6 $1, 926. 0 $2, 262. 3 $2, 959. 9 20. 6% 10. 5% 17. 5% 111. 1 129. 2 180. 4 30. 8% 267. 2 - Margin 6. 7% 8. 0% 9. 0% 0. 2% 13. 0% 16. 3% 39. 6% 48. 1% - $/Share 0. 74 0. 86 1. 08 1. 57 2. 18 - Growth (1) (2) 6. 4% - Growth EPS 6. 8% 1. 4% 16. 2% 25. 6% 45. 4% 38. 9% (1) Beginning in fiscal 2002, goodwill and indefinite-lived assets are no longer amortized under U. S. GAAP. Fiscal 2001 EPS includes $0. 10 in charges, net of tax related to this amortization. (2) Restated for August 2005 two-for-one stock split. 22
Strong Leverage and Capital Efficiency Ratios Fiscal 2003 Fiscal 2004 Fiscal 2005 Days of net working capital 6 12 9 Debt to capital ratio 9. 3% 10. 7% 2. 9% Debt to TTM EBITDA . 3 x . 4 x . 1 x TTM return on equity 16. 5% 19. 5% 21. 5% TTM return on invested capital 14. 5% 18. 3% 20. 5% 23
Consolidated First Quarter Results Dollars in millions, except earnings per share First Quarter Net Sales % Growth Operating Income 2006 $790. 3 22. 5% $ 87. 0 Comments 2005 $644. 9 30. 8% $ 67. 6 % Margin 11. 0% 10. 5% % Growth 28. 6% 44. 7% $ 0. 72 $ 0. 56 28. 6% 33. 3% Earnings Per Share % Growth • Defense drove results • Favorable defense adjustments totaling $12. 2 million in 2005 ($0. 10 per share) • Favorable product liability settlements totaling $4. 2 million at Corporate in 2005 ($0. 04 per share) 24
Fire & Emergency Dollars in millions Net Sales % Growth First Quarter 2006 $216. 4 11. 5% Operating Income $ 20. 9 Fiscal 2005 First Quarter Comments $841. 5 • Strong fire apparatus sales and improved pricing benefited earnings • Lower airport product sales • Expansion-related costs also impacted quarter • Backlog up 4. 1% 40. 3% $ 79. 6 % Margin 9. 7% 9. 5% % Growth 13. 4% 44. 9% 25
Defense Dollars in millions Net Sales % Growth Operating Income % Margin % Growth First Quarter 2006 $363. 1 68. 5% $ 72. 6 20. 0% 40. 5% First Quarter Comments Fiscal 2005 • Truck and parts and $1, 061. 1 service sales each up more 37. 1% $ 210. 2 19. 8% 64. 4% than 60% • MTVR adjustment of $8. 5 million in 2005 • Recovery of pre-contract costs of $3. 7 million in 2005 • Backlog down 3. 0%, but bridge supplemental funding not yet under contract 26
Commercial Dollars in millions First Quarter 2006 Net Sales Operating Income $ (8. 4)% 8. 3 3. 8% 47. 6% • Sales impacted by ERP $1, 085. 7 implementation $221. 2 % Growth % Margin % Growth Fiscal 2005 First Quarter Comments 19. 7% $ 23. 8 2. 2% (31. 6)% • European refuse profitable in Q 1; $2. 6 million operating loss in 2005 • Price increases beginning to benefit earnings • Backlog up 29. 1% 27
Capitalization Dollars in Millions Dec. 31, 2005 Sept. 30, 2005 Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 81. 0 $127. 5 Debt $ 23. 2 $ 24. 1 Shareholders’ Equity 874. 7 818. 7 Total Capitalization $897. 9 $842. 8 Total Debt/Total Capitalization 2. 6% 2. 9% 28
Positioned to Sustain Growth in Fiscal 2006 Estimates (1) Outlook Sales % growth $3. 3 - $3. 4 billion 11. 5% - 15. 0% Operating income % margin % growth • Expect defense and fire and emergency to report steady growth $316. 5 - $329. 0 million 9. 6% - 9. 7% 18. 0% - 23. 0% • Targeting recovery of U. S. margins and a return to annual profitability in Europe in commercial segment EPS % growth (1) $2. 55 - $2. 65 17. 0% - 21. 6% Estimates as of February 2, 2006 29
Favorable Fiscal 2007 Estimated Outlook • Expect higher funding for remanufacturing / modularity in defense • Fire and emergency and homeland security demand is expected to remain strong • 2007 emission standards expected to impact commercial demand, but margin enhancement initiatives should offset much of the impact • Expect cost reduction, new product development and acquisition initiatives to realize benefits for 2007 30
Driving Forces • Strong historic returns, • Successful core strategies, and • Favorable demand Company tactics, • Are expected to drive Oshkosh forward full throttle in 2006 31
cf62f930a478442ec7ac49a19503a15e.ppt