COSMO Priority Project CORSO Consolidation of Operation and

COSMO Priority Project CORSO “Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games” Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina Hydrometeorological center of Russia

PP CORSO Part 1 Rome, 2011 COSMO-RU: current state Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina, Denis Blinov Hydrometeorological center of Russia

17 staff members COSMO-RU: 11 - Ph. D, 4 - postgraduates, 2 - graduates MSU 1. Technol. Line : D. Blinov, G. Rivin, I. Rozinkina; 2. Snow : E. Kazakova, I. Rozinkina ; 3. T 2 m : G. Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E. Sapuntsova; 4. Boundary layer: M. Chumakov, V. Perov; 5. VERSUS-2 : A. Bundel, A. Muravev; 6. h <= 2. 2 km : D. Blinov, G. Rivin; 7. Ensembles : D. Alferov, E. Astakhova, G. Rivin; 8. Data Assim. : V. Gorin, M. Tsyrulnykov; 9. ART : A. Kirsanov, A. Revokatova, G. Surkova. 10. Mires : A. Yurova 3

SYSTEM COSMO-RU 2 x =2. 2 km Domain: Grid: Step: Time step: Forecast: Cores: 900 km * 1000 km 420*470 * 50 2. 2 км 15 сек 24 час. 400 COSMO-RU 7 x = 7 km Domain: Grid: Step: Time step: Forecast: Cores: 4900 km * 4340 km 700*620 * 40 7 км 40 сек 78 час. 800 GME: initial and boundary data COSMO-RUsib x =14 km GME x = 30/20 km Grid: 368 642 * 60 Step: 30 / 20 км Time step: 110 сек Forecast: 7 суток Domain: Grid: Step: Time step: Forecast: Cores: 5000 km * 3500 km 360*250 * 40 14 км 80 сек 78 час. 48. Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 4

April 13, 2011 Roshydromet decided to implement the system of mesoscale weather prediction COSMO-RU in operational practice as a base for use in Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and other Roshydromet prognostic offices. KRASNAYA POLYANA Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 5

COSMO-RU 07: domain, time of run with MPI Initial and boundary data: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 78 h (00, 12 UTC) 48 h (06, 18 UTC) Grid step 7 km Grid: 700 * 620 * 40 4340 km SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium, 64 -bit, 3, 3 Tb memory) Run time for 78 h. 19 min: 1024 cores 33 min: 59 min: 512 cores 256 cores 4900 km Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 6

COSMO-RU 02: domain, time of run with MPI Initial and boundary data: 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC, GME (DWD) Forecast: 24 h Grid step 2. 2 km Grid: 420 * 470 * 50 (Moscow) Moscow 420 * 470 * 50 (Sochi) h = 2. 2 km SGI Altix 4700 (1664 cores) (832 processors Itanium 2, 64 -bit, 3, 3 Tb memory) Sochi Run time for 24 h. 27 min: 400 cores h = 2. 2 km Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 7

COSMO-RU 00 UTC, (the same for 12 UTC) Maps: 900 Meteograms: 400 8

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COSMO-RU 14: Siberia, time of run with MPI Grid step 14 km Grid: 360 * 250 * 40 Run time for 78 h. 27 min: 64 cores 11

COSMO-RU 07: MOSCOW, 25. 12. 2010_15 – 28. 12. 2010_21 (msc) WIND 500 г. Па 700 г. Па 850 г. Па 500 м 10 м Т 2 м Td 2 м Т 850 Т 700 Т 500 DAY and HOURS 25. 12 26 december 27 december 28. 12. 2010 PRESSURE мм/3 часа мм/час PRECIPITATION CLOUDSNESS CONVECTIVE CLOUDNESS 10 000 м 8 000 м 6 000 м 4 000 м 2 000 м 0 м Гидрометеорологический центр Российской Федерации 12

Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 Wind P r e s s u r e , g P a Velocity, m/c 13

Baikonur (Байконур), 24 April 2010 T P r e s s u r e , g P a Т, ˚С 14

COSMO-RU 2, 12 -23 February 2011, T 2 m (prepared by A. Bundel & Versus 2) 15

COSMO-RU 02, September-November 2010, Psea, Moscow 16

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COSMO-RU 02, SOCHI-2014, T 2 m , 28. 01. 2011_15 MSC SOCHI-2014,

COSMO-RU 02, SOCHI-2014, Precipitation, 28. 01. 2011_15 MSC SOCHI-2014,

PP CORSO Part 2 Rome, 2011 Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games

12 staff members Roshydromet CORSO: 7 - Ph. D, 4 - postgraduates, 1 - graduates MSU Task 1 (2. 9 FTEs) The development of statistic. and physical postprocessing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: D. Blinov, E. Kazakova, G. Rivin, I. Rozinkina, N. Volobueva; Task 2 (2. 7 FTEs) Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region: D. Alferov, E. Astakhova, G. Rivin; Task 3 (3. 5 FTEs) The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of less than 2 km for mountainous regions: D. Blinov, M. Chumakov, E. Kazakova, V. Perov, G. Rivin, I. Rozinkina, E. Sapuntsova; Task 4 (4. 2 FTEs) Development of forecast verification for “Sochi-2014”. A. Bundel, A. Muravev.

2012: 3. 95 FTE for Russian CORSO participants (1. 35 others: Task 1 – 0. 55; T 2 – 0. 3; T 3 – 0. 5; T 4 - ? ) 22

Freeride Автор фотографий: Михаил Тигушкин 23 Роза Хутор (Roza Khutor) 14 April 2011

MOTIVATION 1. From COSMO model development: COSMO Science Plan 2010 -2014 (publication date: 30. 11. 2010, p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1 -3 km. . . . the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution. ” 2. Meteorological support for Olympics “Sochi-2014” 24

The main goal: To develop and improve the complex operational high resolution short-range forecast technology for mountain areas for winter weather events on base of COSMO researches (in example of Sochi area) 25

PP CORSO: High resolution model development WG 3 a-b, WG 2 Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions Physical and statistical postprocessing WG 4 Downscaling for venues and local specific weather conditions Ensemble high-resolution forecasting WG 7 Verification WG 5 Forecasts of probability of local weather events Instructions forecasters for use of numerical results 26

Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10. 2011 -09. 2014) Task 1. The development of statistic and phys. post-processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: 1. Adaptation of COSMO post-processing techniques to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of 1 -D statistical models for local weather phenomena – «physical downscaling» . Deliverable: Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues. Results of conditional verification for different synoptic situations. Recommendations for users. 27

Contributing scientist(s) 1 missing: 0. 2 (DWD 1. 1 Meteo. Swiss-ARPA? ) Rozinkina (0. 1) 1. 2 Rozinkina (0. 05) FTEStart Deliverables years Date of deliv ery 2. 90 Numerical forecasts of local weather 09. conditions and critical parameters for 2011 sport venues 0. 30 Review of post-processing methods (incl. Kaman and MOS techniques) 09. available in COSMO-community and 02. 2011 proposals on their extension according 2012 to IOC requirements. Proposal of downscale system 0. 05 List of critical parameters for 09. forecasting in accordance with IOC 2011 requirements 02. 2014 02. 2012 Rozinkina (0. 1) 1. 3 Rivin (0. 05), 0. 25 Missing 0. 1 (Meteo. Swiss-? ) Configuration of the unified operational 09. 02. downscaling system, including both 2011 2012 statistical and physical approaches Rozinkina (0. 05) Sapuntsova (0. 2) 1. 4 missing: 0. 35 (DWDMeteo. Swiss-ARPA? ) 0. 40 09. Weather type classification for 2011 statistical forecasting of local weanter 09. 2012 0. 25 Datasets of all available observations 09. for the Sochi-region, including points 2011 of sport Venues, for winter period 09. 28 2012 Blinov (0. 05) 1. 5 Volobueva (0. 1) Rozinkina (0. 05)

Blinov (0. 1) Sapuntsova (0. 2) 06. 1. 6 0. 50 Missing 0. 2 Meteoswiss 2012 -? Blinov (0. 1) Chumakov (0. 1) 1. 7 Kazakova (0. 05) Rozinkina (0. 05) 1. 8 Rivin (0. 1) Rozinkina (0. 1) Blinov (0. 1) 1. 9 Rozinkina (0. 05) Sapuntsova (0. 2) The software for the unified downscaling system, including both statistical and physical approaches. 02. 2013 0. 30 09. Preliminary assessments for post 02. 2012 processing results for the Sochi region. 2013 0. 20 09. 2012 Results of validation for winters 20112012 and 2012 -1013. Recommendations 09. on improvements of algorithms and 2013 techniques 09. 2012 Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014 » sport venues. Results 02. of conditional verification for different 2014 synoptic situations. Recommendations for users. 0. 80 29

Task 2. Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region. 1. Adaptation of COSMO EPSs to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of COSMO-RU-EPS system. Deliverable: Operational EPS technology for Sochi region. 30

2 2. 70 09. 2011 EPSs with 7 to 2 -km- resolutions for Sochi region Astakhova (0. 1) 2. 1 Montani: 0. 1 (ARPASIMC) 0. 2 Astakhova (0. 1) Alferov (0. 1) 2. 2 Montani: 0. 1 (ARPASIMC) 0. 30 09. 2011 Astakhova (0. 1) Alferov (0. 2) 2. 3 Rivin (0. 05) Montani: 0. 2 (ARPASIMC) 0. 50 09. 2011 EPSs adapted for the Sochi region 09. 2014 Coordinated EPS configuration for the 02. 09. 2011 «Sochi-2014» region (7 - to 2 - km 2012 resolution). A project of organization of information 02. transfer and archiving 2012 09. 2012 31

Astakhova (0. 05) 2. 4 Alferov (0. 05) Rivin (0. 05) 09. 0. 15 2012 Preliminary EPS validation, recommendations on improvement of algorithms and techniques 09. 2013 Astakhova (0. 1) Alferov (0. 2) 2. 5 Rivin (0. 05) Montani: 0. 1 (ARPASIMC) 0. 50 09. COSMO-RU-EPS for Sochi region - in 2012 research mode. 09. 2013 Astakhova (0. 2) Blinov (0. 05) Alferov (0. 2) 2. 6 Kirsanov (0. 1) Montani: 0. 1 (ARPASIMC) 0. 70 09. Operational EPS technology for Sochi 2012 region. 09. 2013 Astakhova (0. 15) 2. 7 Alferov (0. 1) Rivin (0. 05). 0. 30 09. 2012 09. 2013 Astakhova (0. 1) 2. 8 Alferov (0. 05) Rivin (0. 05) 0. 20 09. Assessments of ensemble forecast skill 2013 for winter 2013 -2014 EPS products available forecasters, recommendations for using 09. 2014 32

Task 3. The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of 2. 2 km and less for mountainous regions: 1. Data set of land-surface properties, 1 km resolution 2. Assimilation of parameters of land-surface state observations (Sn, T) 2. Analysis of numerical aspects 3. Modification of parameterization and numerical schemes Deliverable: Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi model with patial resolution 2. 2 km or less. 33

3 3. 1 Blinov (0. 1) missing: 0. 1 (DWD? ) 3. 2 missing: 0. 1 (DWD, Meteo. Swiss ? ) Blinov (0. 05) Rivin (0. 05) 3. 3 missing: 0. 2 (DWD, Meteo. Swiss ? ) Blinov (0. 05) Rivin (0. 05) 3. 4 missing: 0. 1 (DWD, Meteo. Swiss ? ) Kazakova (0. 2) Perov (0. 2) Rozinkina (0. 1) 3. 5 missing: 0. 4 (DWD, Meteo. Swiss ? ) Development of operational forecast technology based on the COSMO-RU 09. 3. 50 2011 model with a spatial resolution of less 2014 than 2 km The data set of land-surface properties 09. 02. with a resolution of 1 km validated for 0. 20 2011 2012 the Caucasus region. Review of COSMO modelling results obtained with 1 -km resolution for 09. 02. 0. 10 2011 mountainous regions before September 2012 2011. Results of the first runs of COSMO 09. 02. model versions with spatial resolution 0. 30 2011 2012 less than 2 km after September 2011. 0. 20 09. Proposals on the modification of 2011 algorithms. 02. 2012 0. 9 Modified physical parameterizations of COSMO model, including 09. 2011 parameterizations of the boundary 2012 layer and land-surface processes. 34

Blinov (0. 1) 3. 6 Rivin (0. 05) Sapuntsova (0. 15) Blinov (0. 1) Perov (0. 05) 3. 7 Rivin (0. 05) Sapuntsova (0. 1) Blinov (0. 05) 3. 8 Perov (0. 05) Rivin (0. 1) Chumakov (0. 10) Kirsanov(0. 20) 3. 9 Rivin (0. 10) Sapuntsova (0. 10) Meteoswiss (0. 4) ? Algorithms and technique of dynamical downscaling of initial and boundary 09. 0. 30 2011 conditions provided by lower- 2012 resolution model. Results of tests for the modified physical parameterizations over 09. 0. 30 2011 various mountainous regions using 2012 field experiment data. Results of COSMO-RU model runs with a resolution of less than 2 km and 09. 0. 20 2011 modified physical parameterizations in 2012 research mode for Sochi region. Land-surface state (T, Sn) parameters assimilation for mountain area. Adaptation of 09. COSMO-techniques to Sochi-region 0. 90 2011 Use of NOAA snow satellite analysis 2012 products. 35

3. 10 Blinov (0. 5) Kirsanov (0. 3) Rivin (0. 1) 09. 0. 90 2012 3. 11 Rivin (0. 05) Rozinkina (0. 05) 0. 10 3. 12 Astakhova (0. 1) Perov (0. 1) Rivin (0. 1) Rozinkina (0. 1) 09. 0. 50 2013 09. 2012 Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi 09. model with spatial resolution high 2013 resolution Recommendations on use forecasters. 09. 2013 Skill assessments for the developed high 09. resolution forecasting system COSMO-RU 2014 -Sochi during the winter 2013 -2014. 36

Task 4. Development of forecast verification for “Sochi 2014”. 1. Collecting and processing observation data for verification. 2. Adaptation of available standard and mesoscale verification tools. 3. Determining criteria for weather dependent and conditional verification Deliverable: Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region. 37

4 Complex verification system for “Sochi 2014”. 09. 2. 20 2011 Information about the forecast quality 2013 and uncertainty 4. 1 Muravev (0. 15) Bundel (0. 05) Review of methods for analysis of radar, gauge, and satellite data and 09. 0. 20 2011 their application for mountainous terrains. 4. 2 Muravev (0. 15) Bundel (0. 15) 0. 30 Muravev (0. 05) 4. 3 Bundel (0. 25) 4. 4 Muravev (0. 3) Bundel (0. 1) 02. 2012 09. Algorithms of data processing and 09. 2011 resulting datasets for the Sochi region. 2012 Weather dependent and conditional 09. verification tools adapted for the Sochi 0. 30 2011 2012 region (based on VERSUS). 0. 40 09. Procedures for processing times series 09. 2011 of forecasts and in situ measurements. 2012 38

4. 5 Muravev (0. 2) Bundel (0. 2) 0. 40 09. 2012 Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region. 4. 6 Muravev (0. 25) Bundel (0. 15) 0. 40 09. 2012 Guidelines forecasters about the forecast quality and uncertainty. 02. 2013 09. 2013 Recommendations for the development of 09. verification systems and for the 2013 improvement of mesoscale forecasts. Muravev (0. 1) 4. 7 Bundel (0. 1) 09. 0. 20 2012 5 PPL, all 0. 50 09. 2013 documentation (scientific and technical) 09. 2014 6 PPL, all 0. 50 09. 2013 final report or paper in peer reviewed journal 09. 2014 12. 3 09. 2011 09. 2014 39

COSMO Priority Project CORSO “Consolidation of Operation and Research results for the Sochi Olympic Games” Thanks ! Gdaly Rivin, Inna Rozinkina Hydrometeorological center of Russia

E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 1. an extended rationale (still pending), 2. restructuring into separate tasks for operationally (Forecast Demonstration Project) and scientifically (Research Development Project) oriented activities (partly done) with clearly defined deliverables (partly done), 3. time schedule (done), 4. clearly defined involvement of international scientists (still pending), 5. list of persons involved specifying their FTEs and assigned tasks (done for Russian colleagues only). It is expected that the revised project plan will be consulted with the SPM (ongoing, but initial revised version has been heavily delayed) and send to the STC members before the September 2011. 41

Answer 1 E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 1. an extended rationale (still pending), For us it was OBVIOUSLY because 1. 1. From COSMO point of the view: COSMO Science Plan 2010 -2014 (publication date: 30. 11. 2010, p. 11) “From the scale of the targeted processes it becomes clear that the mesh-size of the model-system has to be of the order of 1 -3 km. . . . the COSMO Steering Committee decided to focus on the development of a model-system for the short to very short range and with very high convective-scale resolution. ” 1. 2. Meteorological service for Olympics “Sochi-2014” 42

Answer 2 E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 2. restructuring into separate tasks for operationally (Forecast Demonstration Project) and scientifically (Research Development Project) oriented activities (partly done) with clearly defined deliverables (partly done), Two DIFFERENT projects with DIFFERENT AIMS ü FROST, WMO, PL – D. Kiktev ü CORSO, COSMO, PL – G. Rivin and I. Rozinkina 43

Answer 3 -5 E-mail, Marco, 31 August 2011 The STC welcomes and generally accepts the proposition. It proposes, however, its formal modification which should include: 3. time schedule (done), Thanks. 4. clearly defined involvement of international scientists (still pending), We hope that to the end of 2011 (may be to 15 November) we will do it. 5. list of persons involved specifying their FTEs and assigned tasks (done for Russian colleagues only). See 4. It is expected that the revised project plan will be consulted with the SPM (ongoing, but initial revised version has been heavily delayed) and send to the STC members before the September 2011. 44

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Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10. 2011 -09. 2014) Task 1 (2. 9 FTEs) The development of statistic. and phys. post-processing and downscaling for «Sochi-2014» sport venues: 1. Adaptation of COSMO post-processing techniques to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of 1 -D statistical models for local weather phenomena – «physical downscaling» . Deliverable: Operational technology of downscaling for «Sochi-2014 » sport venues. Results of conditional verification for different synoptic situations. Recommendations for users. Task 2 (2. 7 FTEs) Development and adaptation of COSMO EPSs for Sochi region. 1. Adaptation of COSMO EPSs to the Sochi region and to specific requirements of winter Olympics. 2. Development of COSMO-RU-EPS system. Deliverable: Operational EPS technology for Sochi region. 47

Description of individual tasks / Deliverables (10. 2011 -09. 2014) Task 3 (3. 5 FTEs) The development of COSMO model version with horizontal resolution of less than 2 km for mountainous regions: 1. Preparation of archive of land-surface properties with resolution 1 km. 2. Modification of parameterization schemes. 3. Analysis of numerical aspects. Deliverable: Operational technology COSMO-RU-Sochi model with patial resolution less than 2 km. Task 4 (4. 2 FTEs) Development of forecast verification for “Sochi-2014”. 1. Collecting and processing observation data for verification. 2. Adaptation of available standard and mesoscale verification tools. 3. Determining criteria for weather dependent and conditional verification Deliverable: Numerical and graphical results of mesoscale verification using validated tools for object-oriented and multiscale analysis adjusted for the Sochi region. 48