Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion The Future

Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion

The Future of the Internet ARMA Calgary February 10, 2010 Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 2

Yogi Schulz Biography q Partner in Corvelle Consulting q Information technology related management consulting q Microsoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio host q PPDM Association board member q Industry presenter: – – – Project World - 5 years CIPS Informatics - 7 years PMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 years Convergence - 4 years PPDM Association - several years Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 3

The Future of the Internet at various points in the past q Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war q System to conduct business q Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone Estonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategy q A whole new media channel against "cyber-terrorists" today after suspected Russian hackers launched a life q System to improve social third wave of attacks on leading government, banking and q Basis for warfare week. media websites this 19 May 2007 Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 4

Cyber War: Sabotaging the System • Brazilian disruption of electrical power networks initiated by hackers • China Expands Cyberspying in U. S. • The New E-spionage Threat Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 5

Close to Home “Great news, Mrs. Janoski! We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgery on You. Tube, And it’s currently ranked second!” Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 6

Evolution from Web 1. 0 to Web 2. 0 Web 1. 0 End-user input Mostly text content Internet Web 2. 0 End-user generated content Multi-media content Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 7

Increasing Online Sales Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 8

Number of Web Sites on the Web World Wide Web map Over 72 million active sites Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 9

The Future of the Internet Outline q q q q Social computing will expand to business Internet access will be ubiquitous The Web will become faster The Web will become smarter Security will improve IT products will morph into services Recommendations Questions & Answers Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 10

Social Computing Survey q created a personal profile on q q q Facebook, My. Space, Second Life? played Farm. Ville? written personal blog entries? written a review at Amazon? posted pictures at Flickr? posted video at You. Tube? produced content for the Web? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 11

Daily Weblog Postings 1. 4 million posts per day Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 12

New Hobbies on the Internet Isn’t it truly amazing how a day after Matthew takes off his shirt, we can all enjoy it? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion How did anyone survive before the Internet? 13

The future of Social Networks q Companies: – operate Face. Book groups & You. Tube channels – offer chat to customers – host discussion forums q Individuals: – stay in touch with family & friends – promote causes – participate in political action Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 14

Internet Access Survey q abandoned phones for VOIP? q used wireless access at Starbucks? q found Internet access in remote corners of the world? q mooched Internet access from an open Wi. Fi access point? q surfed the Web using a phone? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 15

Internet Everywhere Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 16

T-Mobile Hot. Spot @Home q + $ 20. 00 per month q In a Wi-Fi wireless Internet hot spot, all your calls are free q Phone hands off your calls from Wi-Fi network to cell network seamlessly and automatically Novatel Mi. Fi q Includes a wireless router for your home Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 17

PCs vs. Cell Phones Projected Shipments Over 700 million phones Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 18

Internet-Capable Cell Phones Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 19

Chinese Information Highway Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 20

Revenge of the PCs? Netbook Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 21

The Future of Internet Access q Internet 2 q Cable/ADSL q Rural Internet q Satellite services q Municipal Wi. Fi q Device convergence Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 22

Faster Web Survey q waited and waited for web pages to load? q noticed significant variability when loading the same web page? q rented movies because the download time takes hours? q abandoned an online purchase because the hour glass stayed on forever? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 23

Internet speed by country Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 24

The Future of Internet Speed q Internet 2 q Faster web browsers q Higher speed Cable/ADSL q Higher speed cell phone network q Higher speed in-home network Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 25

Smarter Web Survey q not found what you were searching for? q failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before? q become tired of typing the same personal information over and over? q received unexpected/embarrassing pages in the results set? q found exactly what you were looking for; only it’s in Chicago? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 26

Web Services will connect organizations q Mobile agents } q Rosetta. Net WS-Trust WS-Security Web Services Interoperability WS-Metadata. Exchange WS-Addressing WS-Eventing WS-Service. Group WS-Base. Faults Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion q eb. XML q UDDI q WS- 27

The Future Semantic Web characteristic Today Future Search evaluation String matching Contextual understanding Content importance Page. Rank End-user tagging Automated ranking Personal profiles Limited, Sporadic Richer More consistent Spatial awareness Limited Integrated GPS Multi-application integration Nonexistent Noticeable through XML Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion

Security Survey q actually produced a disaster recovery plan q q q after deferring the work for many years? been hesitant about creating a profile? a paper shredder in use at home? their social security number with them? their password written on a sticky note? a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 29

The Future of Security q Biometric identification: q Technical identification: q Less total freedom to be irresponsible: Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 30

Software & Hardware Survey q implemented virtualization technology q contracted for on-demand server computing? q used open source software? q installed Open. Office? q developed software through crowdsourcing? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 31

IT products will morph into services Software as a Service q Open source software q Pay for software usage by the month Qbyte online q Web-accessible office software q IT infrastructure management Java Enterprise System Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 32

IT products will morph into services Hardware as a Service q Commodity computing q Service oriented architecture q Cluster q Grid Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 33

What will the future of the Internet mean to business? q Enhance distributed collaboration q Enhance supply chain performance q Improve work/life balance q Improve integration of field and head office business processes q Address the potential of knowledge management Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 34

Conclusions q The future of the Internet will surprise us q We tend to underestimate the pace of progress in technology q We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 35

Keeping Up Don’t languish behind, The Internet offers many possibilities! Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 36

Recommendations q Monitor Internet technology developments q Experiment using emerging Web services q Match technology to business problems and opportunities q Pilot Web services in modest ways q Don’t over-commit Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 37

Questions & Answers Elroy will explain it to you Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 38

Future of the Internet Yogi Schulz Partner of Corvelle Consulting Information technology related management consulting Microsoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio host Industry presenter PPDM Association board member Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion Corvelle Consulting 700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W. Calgary, Alberta T 2 P 2 V 7 Phone: (403) 249 -5255 E-mail: Yogi. Schulz@corvelle. com Web: www. corvelle. com 39

Man – Computer Integration Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 40

Software Development Survey q searched for Open Source software q q components? contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application? read about the Open Source Website Content Management System? participated in an Open Source community? considered an open source application? Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 41

Software development will rely heavily on module re-use q Microsoft modules q Java modules q Applications built on tools q Reducing what developers have to code Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 42

Supplemental Slides Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 43

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Top 10 Sites Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 46

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Mobile Web-surfing Growth Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 49

Websites visited after Twitter Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 50

Top-10 Malware Sites Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 51

Internet speed by country Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 52

Number of Weblogs Over 70 million blogs Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 53

USA Holiday Online Spending Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 54

Web Search Activity Share Search Entity Google Sites Share of Searches (%) October Novembe Point 2009 r 2009 Change 65. 4% 65. 6% 0. 2 Yahoo! Sites 18. 0% 17. 5% -0. 5 Microsoft Sites 9. 9% 10. 3% 0. 4 Ask Network 3. 9% 3. 8% -0. 1 AOL Network 2. 9% 2. 8% -0. 1 100. 0% N/A Total Search Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 55

Future of electronic books Amazon Kindle. MSI Dual screen slate Sony Barnes & Noble Apple i. PAD ereader Nook Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 56

Bibliography - 1 q A Brief History of the World Wide Web q A Little History of the World Wide Web q Biometric Identification – www. walthowe. com/navnet/history. html – www. w 3. org/History. html – et. wcu. edu/aidc/Bio. Web. Pages/Biometrics_Eye. html q Classmate PC by Intel – www. classmatepc. com/index. html q Creative Licensing q Digital dilemmas q Eight business technology trends to watch – Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14 – The Economist, Jan 23 rd, 2003 – www. economist. com/opinion/display. Story. cfm? Story_id=1534303 – q http: //www. mckinseyquarterly. com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Eight_business_technology_trends_to_wa tch_2080? gp=1 Electrolux Screenfridge – www. electrolux. com/screenfridge Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 57

Bibliography - 2 q Future of the Internet and Web q Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit q Histories of the Internet q Hobbes' Internet Timeline v 7. 0 q How the internet has woven itself into American life q How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle – www. cs. purdue. edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb. html – Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 – www. internetnews. com/bus-news/article. php/3299631 – www. isoc. org/internet/history – en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Internet_history – www. let. leidenuniv. nl/history/ivh/frame_theorie. html – www. zakon. org/robert/internet/timeline – www. pewinternet. org/PPF/r/148/report_display. asp – John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4 th, 2003 – www. fourmilab. ch/documents/digital-imprimatur Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 58

Bibliography - 3 q IBM - Capacity on demand q IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business q Inside Reality - Improve collaborative decision making q Internet histories q Internet Society q Internet 2 q IPhone-Free Cellphone News – www-1. ibm. com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/ – Internet News, January 23, 2007 – www. internetnews. com/ent-news/article. php/3655391 – www-142. ibm. com/software/sw-lotus/product 3. nsf/wdocs/connections – www. slb. com/content/services/software/virtual – www. isoc. org/internet/history – www. isoc. org – www. internet 2. edu – By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007 – www. nytimes. com/2007/07/05/technology/circuits/05 pogue. html? ex=1186459200&en=45706190 e 9 cee 2 fb&ei=5070 Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 59

Bibliography - 4 q Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet q NASA Research and Education Network (NREN) q On-Demand Computing q One Laptop per Child (OLPC) q Pattie Maes and Pranav Mistry demo Sixth. Sense q Rich Internet application q Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model – www. cs. dartmouth. edu/~dfk/papers/kotz: future 2/ – www. nren. nasa. gov/about/index. html – www. computerworld. com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0, 11188, 06282004, 00. html – laptop. org – http: //www. ted. com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense. html – en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Rich_Internet_application – www. adobe. com/devnet/ria/ – theopensourcery. com/xmlria. htm – www. accelacomm. com/jlp/Bell. Saas-txt. Em 2/22/10002557/ Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 60

Bibliography - 5 q Taming the World Wide Web – A rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online data – by Rachael King – www. businessweek. com/technology/content/apr 2007/tc 20070409_248062. htm? chan=search Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 61

Bibliography - 6 q Utility Computing q Unveiling the genius of multi-touch interface design q Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks q W 3 C - One Web: Going Mobile q q Web 2. 0 Directory : e. Consultant World Wide Web Consortium – www. utilitycomputing. com – Jeff Han – www. ted. com/index. php/talks/view/id/65 – whitepapers. informationweek. com/detail/RES/1099072997_513. html? src=mu_p_j 2 e – Steve Bratt, W 3 C - One Web: Going Mobile – www. w 3. org/2006/Talks/1106 -sb-One. Web-Mobile 2/#(1) Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 62

The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 1 q Secure communication system for US political and q q military leaders during nuclear war Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors Global system of hypertext linkages to crossreference academic documents across computers Fast, shared communication system for large corporations A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 63

The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 2 q Replacement for Fedexing documents q A whole new media channel for: – Distributing information – Delivering entertainment & education – Collaborating for business or pleasure q System to: – Perform rapid research (with limitations) – Conduct business with consumers – B 2 C – Improve social life q Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 64

The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 3 q A software distribution/update mechanism q Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone q System to conduct business: – Among businesses – B 2 B – With government q A turbo-charged way to: – Defraud the innocent & the naive – Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many – Operate a global casino without spending billions Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 65

The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 4 q Basis for warfare: – Disrupt enemy communication – Disable enemy weapons – Freeze enemy financial assets – Avoid casualties on the evening news q Replacement for: – The telephone system – Video conferencing q A shared infrastructure to enable: – Media convergence – Wireless communication system – On-demand television Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 66

A Brief History of the Internet Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 67

A Brief History of the Internet - 1 q 1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency q q q q q (ARPA) as a defense initiative 1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (Do. D) with military contractors 1970 s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP 1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail 1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail 1973 The term Internet is first used 1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts 1982 first Newsgroups established 1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol 1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson 1984 ARPANET grows to 1, 000 hosts Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 68

A Brief History of the Internet - 2 q q q 1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet 1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics. com 1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server 1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as Web technology spread 1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is considered the inventor of the Web 1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet 1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at Mc. Gill University 1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP 1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed 1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions 1992 Internet reaches 1, 000 hosts 1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal grant Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 69

A Brief History of the Internet - 3 q q q q 1993 Internet reaches 2, 000 hosts 1993 Netscape Communications is founded 1994 The first bank opens online 1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery 1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held 1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web" 1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP 3 software 1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began 1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel 1995, 3 September – e. Bay launched 1995, 15 December – Alta. Vista launched as an Internet search engine 1995 Amazon. com launched 1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; reprioritizes software development Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 70

A Brief History of the Internet - 4 q q q 1996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched 1997 The one millionth domain name is registered 1997 Net 2 Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA 1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1. 5 million pages per day 1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections 1998, 7 September – Google Inc. opens for business 1999 B 2 C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular 1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted 1999 My. Space. com is launched 1999 wireless technology called 802. 11 b or Wi-Fi is standardized 2000 B 2 B E-commerce gains momentum 2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 71

A Brief History of the Internet - 5 2001 B 2 B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success 2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes 2001 e. Bay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users 2001 W 3 C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL) 2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service 2001 The first live distributed musical 2001 SETI@Home launches 2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty q 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web servers and email accounts q 2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip q 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDo. S) attack struck the 13 DNS root servers q q q q Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 72

A Brief History of the Internet - 6 q q q q q 2003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all emails 2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières 2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDo. S attacks 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in cities worldwide 2003 first Weblog site launched 2003 Second Life launched 2003 May Linked. In launched 2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on all purchases 2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals for distributing copyright music files 2003 Internet users illegally download about 2. 6 billion music files each month Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 73

A Brief History of the Internet - 7 q q q 2003 Apple Computer introduces Apple i. Tunes Music Store 2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10 Gbps 2004 WS-Security 2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg 2004 Google IPO 2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA 2004 Veri. Sign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers in near real-time 2004 CERNET 2 – first backbone IPv 6 network in China 2004 Internet Worm, called My. Doom or Novarg, spreads through Internet servers 2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26% increase over 2003 2004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 74

A Brief History of the Internet - 8 q 2005 One Laptop Per Child project begins q 2005 You. Tube. com is launched q 2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media q q buys My. Space 2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online 2006 July Twitter launched publicly 2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune 2006 Google acquires You. Tube for $1. 65 billion in a stock-for-stock transaction Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 75

A Brief History of the Internet - 9 q 2007 February Apple surpasses one billion i. Tunes q q q downloads 2007 March 1. 1 billion people use the Internet according to Internet World Stats April 2007 Search engine giant Google surpasses Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand, " and also is the most visited Web site 2007 – Amazon. com sales exceed $ 3 Billion 2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for copyrighted work by major networks, December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi. Touch Website Using Silverlight Internet Archive: http: //www. archive. org Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 76

Social Computing in Business IBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components: q Profiles - Find the people you need q Communities - Work with people who share common interests and expertise q Blogs - Present your own ideas and learn from others q Dogear - Save and share bookmarks q Activities - Organize your work and tap your professional network Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 77

Mobile Subscriptions by Region Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion 78