Context Driven Agile Leadership Managing Complexity and Uncertainty

Context Driven Agile Leadership Managing Complexity and Uncertainty Todd Little Sr. Development Manager

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Managing the Coming Storm Inside the Tornado Project Kickoff When will we get the requirements? All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time But I guess it doesn't matter anyway Just give me your estimates by this afternoon Team Unity Not so fast!. . . I'll have to give the matter a little thought. Go away and come back tomorrow No, we need something today! Ok then, it will take 2 years. No, we need it sooner. Doesn't anybody believe me? I already promised the customer it will be out in 6 months You're a very bad man!

We’re not in Kansas Anymore Developer Hero I may not come out alive, but I'm goin' in there! Reorg The Great and Powerful Oz has got matters well in hand. My! People come and go so quickly here! Testing "Hee hee ha ha! Going so soon? I wouldn't hear of it! Why, my little party's just beginning!

Hurricane Rita

Agile Steering Each iteration provides new information and takes us closer to the product vision. Uncertainty remains, and the shape of the cone is proportional.

Landmark sells shrink wrap software for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production • Users are Geoscientists and Engineers • Subsidiary of Halliburton Energy Services • Integrated suite of ~60 Products • ~50 Million lines of code • Some products 20+ years old • 80+% of project team stays on same product Reservoir / Fluid data Production data Seismic data Structural / Stratigraphic data Velocity data Common Model Representation Well data

We have the challenge of integrating software developed in Houston, Austin, Denver and Calgary Plus Islamabad

Landmark wanted to understand improve our software development process • • Maximize our Value Delivery Scaling to project conditions Manage Uncertainty and Complexity Organizational commonality without being overly prescriptive – Core processes – Adaptive processes – What is “barely sufficient? ”

We were influenced by a number of Agile prophets • Highsmith – Adaptive Software Development • Cockburn – Crystal Methods • Boehm and Turner – Balancing Agility and Discipline

Agile Manifesto We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: – – Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more. Kent Beck, Mike Beedle, Arie van Bennekum, Alistair Cockburn, Ward Cunningham, Martin Fowler, James Grenning, Jim Highsmith, Andrew Hunt, Ron Jeffries, Jon Kern, Brian Marick, Robert C. Martin, Steve Mellor, Ken Schwaber, Jeff Sutherland, Dave Thomas

Criticality (defects cause loss of. . . ) Cockburn’s Crystal Methodology according to (project size, system criticality, team priorities). . . Prioritized for Legal Liability Prioritized for Productivity & Tolerance Life (L) L 6 L 20 L 40 L 100 L 200 L 500 L 1000 Essential money (E) E 6 E 20 E 40 E 100 E 200 E 500 E 1000 Discretionary money D 6 (D) D 20 D 40 D 100 D 200 D 500 D 1000 C 20 C 40 C 100 C 200 C 500 C 1000 Comfort (C) C 6 1 -6 - 20 - 40 - 100 Number of people - 200 - 500 - 1, 000 involved +20%

Crystal family of Agile methodologies Prioritized for Productivity & Tolerance Common philosophy: Strong on communications, Light on deliverables. L 20 L 40 L 80 E 6 E 20 E 40 E 80 D 6 D 20 D 40 D 80 C 6 "Sw dev't is a cooperative game, which uses markers that remind and incite. ” L 6 C 20 C 40 C 80 Orange Clear Yellow Red Principles: Fewer intermediate products are needed with : * Short, rich, informal communications paths * Frequent delivery. * Use people's natural strengths (talking, looking around) beware natural weaknesses (careless, low on discipline)

Criticality (defects cause loss of. . . ) Cockburn’s Crystal Methodology according to (project size, system criticality, team priorities). . . Prioritized for Legal Liability Prioritized for Productivity & Tolerance Life (L) L 6 L 20 L 40 L 100 L 200 L 500 L 1000 Essential money (E) E 6 E 20 E 40 E 100 E 200 E 500 E 1000 Agile D 20 Sweet Spot D 40 D 100 D 200 D 500 D 1000 C 20 C 40 C 100 C 200 C 500 C 1000 Discretionary money D 6 (D) Comfort (C) C 6 1 -6 - 20 - 40 - 100 Number of people - 200 - 500 - 1, 000 involved +20%

Balancing Agility and Discipline Boehm and Turner

Balancing Agility and Discipline Boehm and Turner

Boehm and Turner Observations on Balancing • • Neither agile nor plandriven methods provide a silver bullet Agile and plan-driven methods have home grounds where each clearly dominates Future developments will need both agility and discipline Some balanced methods are emerging • It is better to build your method up than to tailor it down • Methods are important, but potential silver bullets are more likely to be found in areas dealing with – – People Values Communications Expectations management

Agile Manifesto 5 Years Later: Dealing with the Right • Processes and tools that support agility and individuals and interactions (e. g. wikis, collaboration environments, etc. ) • Documentation that leads to working software. A focus on documentation as a consumable rather than as a deliverable. • Contracts that are written in a manner consistent with collaboration and agile delivery • Plans that anticipate and expect change

Landmark studied its project portfolio and identified several project and team attributes • Project Complexity – – – Team size Mission criticality Team location Team capacity Domain knowledge gaps Dependencies • Uncertainty – – Market Uncertainty Technical Uncertainty Project Duration Dependents

We scored the Complexity Attributes on a scale from 1 to 10 Attribute 1 10 Team Size 1 100 Mission Critical Speculative Safety Critical with significant exposure Team Location Same Room Multi-site, World Wide Team Capacity Established Team of experts New team of mostly novices Domain knowledge gaps Developers know the domain as well as expert users Developers have no idea about the domain Dependencies No dependencies Tight Integration with several projects

And we scored the Uncertainty Attributes Attribute 1 10 Market Uncertainty Known deliverable, possibly defined contractual obligation New market that is unknown and untested Technical Uncertainty Enhancements to existing architecture New technology, new architecture. May be some "R" Project Duration 1 -4 week 24 months Dependents/ Scope Flexibility Well defined contractual obligations or Infrastructure Independent

We cross plotted the results and divided the chart into four quadrants

Refactored for Simplicity

This looked a lot like the Boston Matrix

So we named it the Houston Matrix and gave animal names to the quadrants

We looked at an overall process flow and how it would be adaptable. Iterations Inputs Outputs Adaptive Activities Preconditions Postconditions • Released Software CORE Activities Project Sanction RTM

We Identified a set of Core Processes for all projects to use • • • Aggregate Product Plan A/B/C List Quality Agreement Continuous Integration Expert User Involvement Project Dashboard

The Aggregate Product Plan sets the high level vision and expectations Project: Open. Wells Davenport Product: Open. Wells Project Code: 010265 Target Date: 3/30/2004 Version: 2003. 11. 0. 0 Release Date: 3/31/2004 Product Manager: Marcus Ridgway SDD: David Field Vision: Version 2. 0 of the new Well Operations reporting and data analysis application. Will bring powerful new query, graphing and reporting capabilities. Comprehensive D&WS input data and output reports will be supported including integration to Production suite. Platforms: Windows 2000 /Oracle 8. 1. 7 Windows XP / Oracle 9 i Windows 2000 & XP /MSDE Features: 18 additional reports Addtnl apps - Data Anlyzr, NG Profile, Autoprint Extended Rig Equipment support Knowledge Management - Technical limit drilling, lessons learned, non-productive time, and equipment failures Application enhancements (spreadsheet support and tailored well services tab and others) Strategic Fit: Integration Workflow ( Prototype, plan, actual) Top quartile technology Target Markets: Existing DIMS customers US Independents NOCs Government and regulatory organizations Companies requiring integrated offering w/decent wellbore schematic requirements Service companies

The A/B/C List sets proper expectations A MUST be completed in order to ship the product. B SHOULD be completed in order to ship the product. C MAY be completed prior to shipping the product if time allows. Only “A” features may be committed to customers. “A” features must fit in a p 90 confidence schedule. No more than 50% of the planned effort can be allocated to “A” items

A/B/C List Backlog Plan Typical Delivery 50% 100% B A 50% 25% C D C B A

A/B/C List

We use a Quality Agreement similar to Thomsett “A” “B” Very Important “C” Not Very Important X Completeness of Testing X Reliability X X X On Line Help X Training X Attribute Completeness of Functionality Performance Installation Usability Integration

Simple, Certain projects are like Dogs • They can be trained to be well behaved. • Just the Core practices • Laissez Faire…Similar to Crystal Clear

Simple, Uncertain projects are like Colts • Young projects with lots of unfettered energy. • Landmark has had success with XP in this quadrant • Short iterations • Daily stand-up meetings • Automated unit tests

Complex, Certain projects are like Cows • Often are corporate “Cash Cows” • More rigorous requirements management; i. e. use a requirements tool. • Requires the generation of useful documentation for interface definitions • Projects broken up into subprojects and coordinated by a team of leaders or a Scrum of Scrums. • Project plans with dependency and critical path identification

Complex, Uncertain projects are like Bulls • Large projects, hard to control. • Need agility to steer through the uncertainty, and some rigor to manage the complexity. • A careful union of the Colt and the Cow • Requires the best Project Managers • Warning signs – Project Managers sometimes act as clowns to provide diversion. – High BS factor – Appears that they just want to have their way with the Cows.

Don’t throw novice project managers at a bull project

Brooks’ law in action: throw a developer at a late bull project

Project Complexity and Uncertainty influence how to scale our agile process • One size doesn’t fit all • The assessment tool is a guide • Landmark’s portfolio balance – – 10% Bulls 10% Cows 20% Colts 60% Dogs

Complexity is like Amplitude and Uncertainty is like Frequency

Product Innovation Flow Hot Items Product Backlog Release Backlog A Items Idea Filter Sales Adaptive Activities RTM B&C Project Sanction Iteration Backlog Newly Discovered Flexible Scope Backlog CORE Activities Most Items for consideration in next release B/C/D Backlog Burnup A Services Customer Support

Nickoliasen Model for Idea Filter (Executive Summit ADC 2004) High Market Differentiating Partner Or convert To Mission Critical Who Cares? Focus and Allocate Resources Achieve Parity Low Mission Critical High

Products Tend to follow a Lifecycle path C A B

An Example Lifecycle path 2003 2004

Business Process Value Chain Sales Product Company Specifications Development Delivery Contract Model Business Need Development Delivery Internal IT Market Product Development

Business Process Value Chain Product Development Sales Product Company Development Delivery Contract Model Business Need Development Delivery Internal IT Market Specifications

Business Process Value Chain X Y Z Innovation Discovery of unanticipated features or other innovative ways of improving the product C C A Integration Attention to cross product integration issues A B B Development Velocity Speed of development of new product features B B A Quality Product reliability A A B Customer Responsiveness Business agility - ability to respond quickly to new customer needs B C B Predictability Focus on accuracy of release date B A A Project traceability Audit ability of project process. Traditionally very important for outsourcers. B B C Cost Importance of a low Cost structure A A C

Business Process Value Chain O M P Innovation Discovery of unanticipated features or other innovative ways of improving the product C C A Integration Attention to cross product integration issues C B B Development Velocity Speed of development of new product features C B A Quality Product reliability B A B Customer Responsiveness Business agility - ability to respond quickly to new customer needs C C B Predictability Focus on accuracy of release date A B B Project traceability Audit ability of project process. Traditionally very important for outsourcers. A B C Cost Importance of a low Cost structure A A C

Portfolio Management and Dealing with Darwin (G. Moore) High Deploy Offload Manage Market Differentiating Invent Low Mission Critical High

Follow the Yellow Brick Road Oz never did give nothing to the tin man, that he didn’t, didn’t already have

Portfolio Management and Dealing with Darwin High Embrace Change Ad Hoc Agile Eliminate Change Control Change Outsource Structured Market Differentiating Create Change Low Mission Critical High

Early Release of Bull Project

Tools for dealing with Bulls

Bull Program, Dog Project

Don’t mistreat your cows

Don’t over stereotype: e. g. Not all dogs are the same

Long Ago

Longer Ago

Long Ago and Far Away

Long Ago and Far Away

Long Ago and Far Away

Long Ago and Far Away

• • • The Agile Project Leadership Network Declaration of Interdependence (www. apln. org) We increase return on investment by making continuous flow of value our focus. We deliver reliable results by engaging customers in frequent interactions and shared ownership. We expect uncertainty and manage for it through iterations, anticipation and adaptation. We unleash creativity and innovation by recognizing that individuals are the ultimate source of value, and creating an environment where they can make a difference. We boost performance through group accountability for results and shared responsibility for team effectiveness. We improve effectiveness and reliability through situationally specific strategies, processes and practices. David Anderson, Sanjiv Augustine, Christopher Avery, Alistair Cockburn, Mike Cohn, Doug De. Carlo, Donna Fitzgerald, Jim Highsmith, Ole Jepsen, Lowell Lindstrom, Todd Little, Kent Mc. Donald, Pollyanna Pixton, Preston Smith and Robert Wysocki

Declaration of Independence from Bureaucratic Project Management When in the Course of project events it becomes necessary for Project Teams to dissolve the political bureaucracies which have burdened them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all projects are not created equal, that they are endowed by their creation with uncertain and complex characteristics. That project teams are most effective when they value Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

Logos

Penal Management Institute Now that I am a Penal Management Professional I can show them how to improve these Convicts’ Maturity Model

Barely Sufficient? Or not sufficient enough

Project Leadership Project Execution Relationship of the APLN to the Agile. Alliance Pair Programming Continuous Build TDD Collaboration Change Empowerment Software APLN Beyond Software

Oil and Gas Drilling Well 2 Well 1 Surface Seismic reflection A Reservoir Water B Oil

Geosteering for Uncertainty Well 2 Well 1 Surface A Planned Reservoir Actual Reservoir B Well 2’ Figure 2

Depth vs. Time

Agility Beyond Software Drillin g Proj SCRU ect M Morni ng Daily mee stan ting dup Depth Burnd vs. own

Real Options: Value of Information and Value of Flexibility Value of Information Planning or prototyping to expose unknowns prior to making a larger investment. Value of Flexibility Investing in enabling flexibility in the system so that it will be capable of dealing with an unknown future environment. Software development has inherent flexibility in that many decisions can be delayed until some point in the future. Investment in comprehensive automated unit tests helps to keep the cost of change low.

Interdependence and Leadership • • • Context Uncertainty Value Customers Individuals Teams

Boehm and Turner Observations on Balancing • • Neither agile nor plandriven methods provide a silver bullet Agile and plan-driven methods have home grounds where each clearly dominates Future developments will need both agility and discipline Some balanced methods are emerging • It is better to build your method up than to tailor it down • Methods are important, but potential silver bullets are more likely to be found in areas dealing with – – People Values Communications Expectations management

Individuals and Teams

Security + Tribal Security + Individual Security - • Complacency • Process Focus Rules and Regulations become important • No risk or Innovation • Cooperative Effort to strengthen tribe • Personal Sacrifice • Common Enemy • Resignation from tribe • Tribe ejects individual • Individual acts to harm tribe • Everyone leaves the tribe • Individuals lay claim to valuables • Search for new tribe to join

Value + Tribal Value + Individual Value - • Strong support and encouragement • Individual heroics praised • High motivation • Extreme loyalty • Urgency to change • Individuals hone their skills • Symbols reaffirmed • Relationships reviewed & improved • Individual feels out of step with tribe • Effort to integrate with tribe • Form new tribe • Finger pointing • Involve outsiders • Promote own world view • In fighting

Tribal Leadership • Focus on increasing – Individual Security – Tribal Value – Individual Value • Do not make the tribe too secure – Never ending goal

Quadrant TV+ IV+ TV- IVTV+ IVTS+ IS+ TS- ISTS+ IS- Action Maintain the status quo Emphasize just cause. Reinforce TV+ Define common enemy Create new sources of IV+ New source of TV+, Reinforce common enemy and just cause Replace leadership Beware of subtribes

Get the point?