Content The global economy The U

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The global economy

The U. S. recovery Assuming that there is no second fiscal stimulus package in the US and that the Federal Reserve (the Fed, the US central bank) begins to tighten monetary policy in the second half of 2010, the “Economist Intelligence Unit” expect US GDP growth to weaken to 1. 3% in 2011.

Another reason for the skepticism regarding the sustainability of the U. S. recovery is the high unemployment rate. The unemployment currently stands at 10. 2% and could top 13%. Consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of GDP, will remain constrained as long as unemployment remains at current levels.

Puerto Rico’s economic outlook

Total employment

Bankruptcies

Retail sales

Christmas sales

Construction industry

The real estate crisis

The banking industry

Fiscal up date

Revenues to the general fund

Personal tax revenues

Sales tax revenues were below expectations in September totaling $84, $3 million less than estimates. It is important to recall that I. V. U revenues to the general fund will be substantially reduced this year due to legislative amendments made to the COFINA law that stipulates that 2. 5%, instead of 1%, out of the 4. 5% state sales tax will go to the special fund.

Government economic actions

Puerto Rico’s GNP Historically, the local economy has been synchronized with the U. S. economic cycle. However, due to the closing of numerous manufacturing plants as a result of the phasing out of Section 939, the effect of the expansionary cycle of the U. S. is not as important as it was when Puerto Rico was a Strategic industrial point of export towards the U. S. market. Towards the end of the industrial era, the economic ties between Puerto Rico and the North American economy have occurred as functions of tourism, finance flows, and federal transfers.

Final remarks

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