Construction Super. Conference San Francisco, CA December 2006 Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects Session E 8 10: 45 a. m. – 12: 00 p. m. Thursday, December 7, 2006 Presented by: Robert C. Mc. Cue, P. E. of MDCSystems® Patrick J. O'Connor, Jr. , Esquire of Faegre & Benson Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Introduction • Patrick J. O’Connor, Esquire Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Time Impact Analysis (TIA) TIA® is – a technique for apportioning actual delay which has occurred – a retrospective analysis using 20 – 20 hindsight – It is not a prospective analysis which requires predictions about future occurrences Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Computer Based Electronic Schedules • • Electronic Schedules Constraints, Restraints and Logic ties Computer based schedules are Models of the planned work Computer based as-built schedules are records of the actual work Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
TIA® Requirements As-Planned Schedule – Contract Dates(Milestones) – Logical Relationships(Work Sequence) – Reasonable Durations As-Built Schedule – Actual activity start dates – Actual activity completion dates – Change Orders inserted Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Recommended TIA® Procedure § § § § § Determine the baseline (as-planned) schedule for the analysis. Establish the reasonableness of the baseline activity durations and logic, and revise as required. This results in a revised baseline. Determine the source and reliability of as-built data. Select the first Time Impact Analysis (TIA)® date and determine the progress of all activities, to that date. Note any delaying events which occurred during the analysis period (late progress). Update the revised baseline for progress during the analysis period (progress override). Identify and insert new activities as necessary. Revise remaining durations using Contractors projected schedule. Note change in project completion date. Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Recommended TIA® Procedure cont… • Determine cause and responsibility (owner, Contractor, etc. ) for the change in project completion date (technical review of activity). • Inspect the network for controlling delays and note. • Repeat steps d-k for each analysis. • Develop successive Time Impact Analysis (TIA)® around critical activity delays and controlling delays until the analysis reaches project completion, using as-built data. • Summarize the results of the analysis using simplified summary graphics. • Run comparative schedule analysis to ascertain all changes to the successive Time Impact Analysis (TIA)® schedules and summarize. • Identify and highlight on the summary graphics, the controlling and critical delays. Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Dancing with the Schedule • The schedule is a model of the work plan • The schedule is only as good as the plan • Multiple layers of interactions between the activities of the schedule may not be modeled (scheduled) at all • The schedule is not precise and will be revised many times during the course of the work • While exact calculations of events can be made, as a practical matter, Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Dancing with the Schedule • The schedule is a tool to help manage the work • The actual work will not mimic the plan • Physical relationships on the work site will control actual work activities and may not be in the logic • The value of the construction schedule is directly related to the effort invested in preparing, up-dating and replanning the schedule Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Project Examples – Refinery Renovation 120 million dollar refinery Utilities Up. Grade and expansion project in Saudi Arabia – Submarine Pipeline Five Foot Diameter, 12, 000 meter Encased Pipeline Cement Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Refinery Project Analysis • Apportion Delay, Owner – EPC Contractor – Defective Design – Site Conditions – Changes – Owner Interference Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Refinery Project Analysis Blending, Storage & Transfer System • The BS&T System consists of tanks, pumps, blenders/mixers, and piping to handle storage for new process plant feeds and products; provide in-line blending of motor gasoline, diesel and fuel oil; transfer unit feeds, intermediate products, blending components, and finished products; and, cool black oil. Existing services and equipment will be refurbished and relocated from other areas. Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
BS&T Issues • Owner delayed start of construction due to drainage issues • U/G obstructions • Owners inaccurate as-built drawings • Changes in Owners OMSB philosophy • HAZOP Review • Black Oil sump foundation delay (TEL contamination) Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Schedule Summary • • As-Planned Schedule As-Built Schedule Change Orders Comparison of 90% Engineering Contractors Jun 17, 1995 Schedule Analysis Contractors Jun 19, 1995 Schedule Analysis MDC Analysis Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Major Change Orders • 52 – Revise pumps, electrical, foundations, etc of Diesel, Fuel Oil and Mogas blenders. BS&W estimated $2, 888, 739. ARAMCO agreed to pay $1, 395, 000. BS&W proposed moving 5 milestone dates while ARAMCO agreed to move only 2 dates. • 63, 64, & 88 – Piping, instrumentation and junction box as-builts. These were required because the as-built data provided by ARAMCO was inaccurate. ARAMCO refused to provide any schedule adjustment. • 67 – Oil Movement, Storage and Blending revision. BS&W estimated $519, 660 with an 81/2 month schedule impact. ARAMCO agreed to pay $430, 000 and refused to grant a schedule adjustment. • 119 – Additional BS&T analyzer shelter. BS&W estimated $65, 427 while ARAMCO agreed to pay $54, 000. Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Major Change Orders cont… • 120 – BS&T HAZOP revisions. BS&W estimated $241, 408. ARAMCO • 122 – Inter-contract instrumentation changes. Compensates BS&W for the • 152 – BS&T instrumentation changes. Compensates BS&W for the agreed to pay $235, 000 with no schedule adjustment. additional work discussed in the March 1996 Packages 2 & 5 coordination meeting. BS&W estimated $203, 826 and 2 to 4 months of schedule adjustment. ARAMCO agreed to pay $192, 000 and refused any schedule adjustment. procurement and construction changes resulting from CO #67. BS&W estimated $489, 277. ARAMCO agreed to pay $452, 500 with no schedule adjustment. Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
As-Planned Schedule Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
As-Built Schedule Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Change Orders Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Blending, Storage & Transfer Mechanical Completion Analysis 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 July 26, 1994 Bid Schedule (RAST) Oct 1997 June 19, 1995 & June 17 1995 BS&W Schedule Analysis Owner Approved Reconstructed (CPM) Schedule with June 1995 Impacts Mechanical Completion Certificate Mar 1998 Jun 1998 Oct 1997 Jan 1999 Bid vs Completed Schedule Delay 15 months delay Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
BS&T Summary • • • Engineering delayed 24 Months 90% Engineering delayed 9 Months IFC Drawings delayed 24 Months Mechanical Completion delayed 16 Months Impacted by 53 Change Orders Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Submarine Pipeline Analysis • Original Schedule 80 Activities • As-Built – 140 Activities Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Schedule Analysis Results • Contractor Delay Analysis – 500 days of delay, Owner Responsibility • Time Impact Analysis® – 140 Days of total delay, Contractor Responsibility Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Submarine Pipeline Analysis • Apportion Delay, Owner-Contractor – Issues Giving Rise to Delay – Weather – Underwater conditions – Damage to Pipeline Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Submarine Pipeline As-Planned Schedule Submarine Pipeline TIA Summary Submarine Pipeline Work During Exclusion Periods Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Activity Status • Physical Units • Schedule Data Reporting • Daily Records Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Contact Us! Robert C. Mc. Cue, P. E. MDCSystems® 300 Berwyn Park Suite 115 Berwyn, PA 19312 610 -640 -9600 Patrick J. O’Connor, Jr. , Esq. Faegre & Benson, LLP 2200 Wells Fargo Center 90 South 7 th Street Minneapolis, MN 55402 612 -766 -7413 * Time Impact Analysis® is Registered Trademark # 1701267 of IMDISI, Inc. in the European Union ** TIA® is Registered Trademark # 1700210 of IMDISI, Inc. in the European Union Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Dancing With the Schedule • • • People who are raised in the industrial world and who get enthused about systems thinking are likely to make a terrible mistake. They are likely to assume that here, in systems analysis, in interconnection and complication, in the power of the computer, here at last, is the key to prediction and control. This mistake is likely because the mindset of the industrial world assumes that there is a key to prediction and control. I assumed that at first too. We all assumed it, as eager systems students at the great institution called MIT. More or less innocently, enchanted by what we could see through our new lens, we did what many discoverers do. We exaggerated our own ability to change the world. We did so not with any intent to deceive others, but in the expression of our own expectations and hopes. Systems thinking for us was more than subtle, complicated mindplay. It was going to Make Systems Work. But self-organizing, nonlinear, feedback systems are inherently unpredictable. They are not controllable. They are understandable only in the most general way. The goal of foreseeing the future exactly and preparing for it perfectly is unrealizable. The idea of making a complex system do just what you want it to do can be achieved only temporarily, at best. We can never fully understand our world, not in the way our reductionistic science has led us to expect. Our science itself, from quantum theory to the mathematics of chaos, leads us into irreducible uncertainty. For any objective other than the most trivial, we can't optimize; we don't even know what to optimize. We can't keep track of everything. We can't find a proper, sustainable relationship to nature, each other, or the institutions we create, if we try to do it from the role of omniscient conqueror. For those who stake their identity on the role of omniscient conqueror, the uncertainty exposed by systems thinking is hard to take. If you can't understand, predict, and control, what is there to do? Systems thinking leads to another conclusion–however, waiting, shining, obvious as soon as we stop being blinded by the illusion of control. It says that there is plenty to do, of a different sort of "doing. " The future can't be predicted, but it can be envisioned and brought lovingly into being. Systems can't be controlled, but they can be designed and redesigned. We can't surge forward with certainty into a world of no surprises, but we can expect surprises and learn from them and even profit from them. We can't impose our will upon a system. We can listen to what the system tells us, and discover how its properties and our values can work together to bring forth something much better than could ever be produced by our will alone. We can't control systems or figure them out. But we can dance with them! Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
Time Impact Analysis® for Complex Projects
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