Conferinta “Strategii Anti Criza in Retail” BMG Retail Market Strategies 2009 Bucharest, 26 May 2009
Contents l Romania Economic Performance 2009 - sld. 3, 4 l Retail Market 2008 – sld. 5 l Bucharest – Retail Market May 2009 – sld. 6 l Retail Market Directions- 7, 8 l l 2 Evolution of Modern Shopping Centres Stock – sld. 9 Top 5 Shopping Centre Stock Delivered in 2008 in Europe – sld. 10
Romania Economic Performance 2009 l l 3 Despite a strong first 9 months of 2008, where GDP growth was 8. 9% and foreign direct investments equalled 9 billion Euros, the final few months showed a rapid slow down in economic activity. The international crisis has since begun to have a serious effect on the Romanian economy. As seen globally, there is uncertainty with regard to the economic evolution during 2009; how hard the local economy will suffer and when the conditions will improve are as yet unknown
Retail Market 2008 l l 4 2008 was a record-high year for shopping centre development; over 721, 000 sq m GLA was delivered onto the market, including 25 new projects and 12 existing scheme extensions. Retail warehouses are still dominated by stand-alone units or units attached to shopping centre projects, few retail parks are operational. The first factory outlet centre in Romania, Fashion House developed by Liebrecht & Woods, was opened in December 2008 located in the Western part of Bucharest.
BUCHAREST – Retail Market May 2009 5
BUCHAREST – Retail Market May 2009 l Bucharest accounts for over 30% of the total retail turnover in Romania. l The existing shopping centre density = 277 sq m GLA/1, 000 inhabitants, significant below the levels registered in others CEE Capitals, 400 -600 sq m/1, 000 people. l Main shopping centers are Baneasa Shopping City, Plaza Romania, Bucuresti Mall, Unirea SC and Militari Shopping Center. l High streets retail is concentrated in downtown Bucharest, along the major boulevards of Magheru / Balcescu and Calea Victoriei. l Existing hypermarkets: Carrefour, Cora, Real, Auchan and Kaufland. l Existing cash & carry: Metro and Selgros. l Existing DIY: Bricostore, Praktiker, OBI, Hornbach, Mr. Bricolage and Dedeman. l International fashion retailers: Zara, Marks & Spencer, Promod, Mango, Intersport, Nike, Debenhams, Esprit, Next, Peek & Cloppenburg, Reserved, Cortefield etc. 6
RETAIL MARKET DIRECTIONS l l DEMAND: Stable demand from major international anchors, however, this is accompanied with a decreasing interest for expansion from under 500 sq m retailers whom have been affected by the drop in sales and the lack of finance l RENTS: Decreasing average levels for schemes outside Bucharest and peripheral locations l 7 SUPPLY: Shopping centre stock under construction with announced delivery in 2009 is 32% lower than in 2008, but still accounts for a substantial 490, 000 sq m of GLA VACANCY: Increasing vacancy rate especially for decentralised locations and cities with a population of less than 200, 000.
RETAIL MARKET DIRECTIONS l Despite a slowdown in November and December, total retail sales in 2008 registered a healthy year-on -year growth of 13%, with a higher result for the non-food sector (+14. 4%), according to the Romanian Statistical Office. l Retail development was dramatically hit in the last four months of 2008, a large number of projects have been postponed for an undefined period of time or cancelled. All types of developers have been affected by the worsening market conditions including a total lack of financing from banks, decreasing property value and an absence of possible investors for joint-ventures. There were no new projects started, while some of the schemes under construction that had not already secured financing were stopped. l 8
Evolution of Modern Shopping Centres 9 Stock
Top 5 Shopping Centre Stock Delivered in 2008 in Europe Country Extensions Total GLA (2008) 1. Russia 1. 341. 712 311. 391 1. 653. 103 2. Turkey 1. 134. 603 0 1. 134. 603 3. Ukraine 551. 050 287. 405 838. 455 4. Spain 602. 879 161. 685 764. 564 5. Romania 584. 398 136. 944 721. 342 6. Italy 575. 141 38. 391 613. 532 7. Poland 522. 500 52. 940 575. 440 8. UK 329. 643 126. 021 455. 664 9. Germany 335. 919 0 335. 919 10. France 159. 400 174. 711 334. 111 11. Portugal 253. 954 7. 559 261. 513 12. Czech Rep 148. 838 46. 000 194. 838 13. Denmark 89. 000 52. 772 141. 772 14. Sweden 14. 000 122. 500 136. 500 15. Austria 76. 600 47. 500 124. 100 16. Switzerland 123. 500 0 123. 500 17. Greece 99. 700 0 99. 700 18. Netherlands 55. 000 22. 050 77. 050 19. Bosnia Herz. 10 New Schemes 74. 000 0 74. 000
Top 5 Shopping Centre Stock Delivered in 2008 in Europe New Schemes Extensions Total GL A (20 08) 20. Hungary 71. 800 0 71. 800 21. Bulgaria 63. 500 0 63. 500 22. Slovakia 25. 300 37. 590 62. 890 23. Lithuania 52. 000 0 52. 000 24. Ireland 48. 831 0 48. 831 25. Finland 35. 000 8. 000 43. 000 26. Slovenia 37. 000 0 37. 000 27. Serbia 29. 000 0 29. 000 28. Norway 11. 500 10. 000 21. 500 29. Latvia 6. 000 15. 000 21. 000 30. Luxembourg 20. 000 0 20. 000 31. Estonia 0 16. 000 32. Croatia 15. 000 0 15. 000 34. Belgium 8. 900 0 5. 000 Country 35. Malta 11
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