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CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006

CNRFC Operations n n n 11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast CNRFC Operations n n n 11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast Points n n n 50 Reservoir Inflow Points n n n Partners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15 Partners: COE & BUREC Season: year-round 50 Water Supply Points n Season: Jan. 1 – Jul. 1

CNRFC Staff Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) n Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) n 4 CNRFC Staff Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) n Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) n 4 Senior Hydrologists n 3 Hydrologists n 1 Senior HAS Forecasters n 2 HAS Forecasters n Administrative Assistant n

CNRFC Hydrologic Products Short Range … … … Long Range Flash Flood Guidance Flood CNRFC Hydrologic Products Short Range … … … Long Range Flash Flood Guidance Flood Forecast Guidance Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Spring Snow Melt Forecasts Water Supply Volume

Flood Forecasting Operations QPF River Forecasts Flood Forecasting Operations QPF River Forecasts

Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System

Primary NWSRFS Models n n n Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Primary NWSRFS Models n n n Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Unit Hydrograph Reservoir Models River Routing Models

NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Snowfall Rainfall NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Snowfall Rainfall

NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 n n Conceptual Model of Physical Processes Models a Column of NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 n n Conceptual Model of Physical Processes Models a Column of Snow - Accumulation of Snow Cover - Surface Energy Exchange - Snow Cover ‘Ripening’ - Ground Heat Exchange - Transmission of Liquid Water Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow

NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 WY 1986 SJ River NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 WY 1986 SJ River

NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA n Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA n Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle n Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover n Output = Inflow to the channel system

SAC-SMA SAC-SMA

NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA WY 1986 SJ River NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA WY 1986 SJ River

NWSRFS Models Actual Inflow (FOLC 1) Observed (w): hourly data Simulated (p): 6 -hourly NWSRFS Models Actual Inflow (FOLC 1) Observed (w): hourly data Simulated (p): 6 -hourly (with reservoir outflows)

NWSRFS Models River Routing Example NWSRFS Models River Routing Example

NWSRFS Models Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass) NWSRFS Models Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)

NWSRFS Models Tidal Example (Rio Vista) NWSRFS Models Tidal Example (Rio Vista)

Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System

Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise H QPF A Rain/Snow Elevations S Forecast Temp Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise H QPF A Rain/Snow Elevations S Forecast Temp River Forecast System precip/temp/flow Data Systems River Forecast Guidance Soil, snow & routing parameters Model Calibration

Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Data Systems Model Calibration Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Data Systems Model Calibration

Precipitation Data Quality Control Precipitation Data Quality Control

Precipitation Data Quality Control Gage Catch Issues n n n Wind Snow Instrumentation (double Precipitation Data Quality Control Gage Catch Issues n n n Wind Snow Instrumentation (double tipping) Gage location (vegetation, topography…) Vandalism

River and Reservoir Data QC Hourly Stage & Streamflow Reservoir Inflow Outflow and Storage River and Reservoir Data QC Hourly Stage & Streamflow Reservoir Inflow Outflow and Storage Anticipated Reservoir Outflow Automated Filtering & Manual QC

Real-time Forecasting NF American River Observed Data Simulated Flow Real-time Forecasting NF American River Observed Data Simulated Flow

Real-time Forecasting Folsom Inflow Real-time Forecasting Folsom Inflow

Real-time Forecasting San Joaquin River at Newman Observed Flow Data Simulated Flow Real-time Forecasting San Joaquin River at Newman Observed Flow Data Simulated Flow

Operational Flood Forecasting Operational Flood Forecasting

Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Data Systems Model Calibration Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Data Systems Model Calibration

Interactive Forecast Program River Model Interactive Forecast Program River Model

IFP Runtime Modifications IFP Runtime Modifications

Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise H QPF A Rain/Snow Elevations S Forecast Temp Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise H QPF A Rain/Snow Elevations S Forecast Temp Graphical RVF River Forecast System precip/temp/flow Data Systems Soil, snow & routing parameters Model Calibration

Graphical River Forecast Guidance Merced River Pohono Bridge Graphical River Forecast Guidance Merced River Pohono Bridge

Graphical RVF Availability 87 official flood forecast points. n Routine updates. n twice per Graphical RVF Availability 87 official flood forecast points. n Routine updates. n twice per day. n morning/afternoon. n n Updates during floods. 8 am/2 pm/8 pm/2 am. n as needed. n n Visible to everyone.

Graphical River Forecast Guidance Benefits n Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. n Graphical River Forecast Guidance Benefits n Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. n More information is presented than in a text product. n Longer range guidance for emergency managers.

Forecasting Balancing Timeliness and Accuracy Forecast Value Timeliness Accuracy Forecast Lead Time Forecasting Balancing Timeliness and Accuracy Forecast Value Timeliness Accuracy Forecast Lead Time

Graphical River Forecast Guidance period information has higher uncertainty. n Ø Ø Ø Timing Graphical River Forecast Guidance period information has higher uncertainty. n Ø Ø Ø Timing and amount of rainfall forecast. Rain/snow level forecast. Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect downstream forecasts and guidance.

New Website http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/ Graphical RVF New Website http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/ Graphical RVF

New Website http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/ Other River Guidance New Website http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/ Other River Guidance

Review of 2006 Flood Event Folsom Inflow Forecasts Graphs Review of 2006 Flood Event Folsom Inflow Forecasts Graphs

Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System

ESP Products n Reservoir inflows n Unregulated rivers n Extended forecasts ESP Products n Reservoir inflows n Unregulated rivers n Extended forecasts

AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation n CNRFC implemented AHPS locations n AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation n CNRFC implemented AHPS locations n Started in WY 2005 on 70 points

ESP Traces ESP Traces

AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation

CNRFC Development Areas Flood Forecasting n Dam Break Support n Flash Flood Support n CNRFC Development Areas Flood Forecasting n Dam Break Support n Flash Flood Support n Water Supply Forecasting n Hourly Hydrologic Modeling n Website n http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/

California-Nevada River Forecast Center Thank You California-Nevada River Forecast Center Thank You