
b9769e85fa141820529769471f2e4adf.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 46
CNRFC Operational Flood Forecasting Pete Fickenscher Hydrologist California-Nevada River Forecast Center National Weather Service October 18, 2006
CNRFC Operations n n n 11 Weather offices 220 Basins modeled 87 Flood Forecast Points n n n 50 Reservoir Inflow Points n n n Partners: Calif. DWR Season: Oct. 15 – Apr. 15 Partners: COE & BUREC Season: year-round 50 Water Supply Points n Season: Jan. 1 – Jul. 1
CNRFC Staff Hydrologist in Charge (HIC) n Development and Operations Hydrologist (DOH) n 4 Senior Hydrologists n 3 Hydrologists n 1 Senior HAS Forecasters n 2 HAS Forecasters n Administrative Assistant n
CNRFC Hydrologic Products Short Range … … … Long Range Flash Flood Guidance Flood Forecast Guidance Reservoir Inflow Forecasts Spring Snow Melt Forecasts Water Supply Volume
Flood Forecasting Operations QPF River Forecasts
Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System
Primary NWSRFS Models n n n Rain-Snow Elevation Snow-17 Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Unit Hydrograph Reservoir Models River Routing Models
NWSRFS Models Rain-Snow Elevation Snowfall Rainfall
NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 n n Conceptual Model of Physical Processes Models a Column of Snow - Accumulation of Snow Cover - Surface Energy Exchange - Snow Cover ‘Ripening’ - Ground Heat Exchange - Transmission of Liquid Water Input = Air Temperature & Precip. Output = Rain + Melt, SWE, & Areal Extent of Snow
NWSRFS Models SNOW-17 WY 1986 SJ River
NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA n Conceptual Model of the Land Phase of the Hydrologic Cycle n Input = Rain + Melt, Evapotranspiration, Areal Snow Cover n Output = Inflow to the channel system
SAC-SMA
NWSRFS Models SAC-SMA WY 1986 SJ River
NWSRFS Models Actual Inflow (FOLC 1) Observed (w): hourly data Simulated (p): 6 -hourly (with reservoir outflows)
NWSRFS Models River Routing Example
NWSRFS Models Reservoir Model Example (Yolo Bypass)
NWSRFS Models Tidal Example (Rio Vista)
Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System
Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise H QPF A Rain/Snow Elevations S Forecast Temp River Forecast System precip/temp/flow Data Systems River Forecast Guidance Soil, snow & routing parameters Model Calibration
Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Data Systems Model Calibration
Precipitation Data Quality Control
Precipitation Data Quality Control Gage Catch Issues n n n Wind Snow Instrumentation (double tipping) Gage location (vegetation, topography…) Vandalism
River and Reservoir Data QC Hourly Stage & Streamflow Reservoir Inflow Outflow and Storage Anticipated Reservoir Outflow Automated Filtering & Manual QC
Real-time Forecasting NF American River Observed Data Simulated Flow
Real-time Forecasting Folsom Inflow
Real-time Forecasting San Joaquin River at Newman Observed Flow Data Simulated Flow
Operational Flood Forecasting
Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist River Forecast Guidance Data Systems Model Calibration
Interactive Forecast Program River Model
IFP Runtime Modifications
Operational Flood Forecasting Hydrologist hydrologic expertise H QPF A Rain/Snow Elevations S Forecast Temp Graphical RVF River Forecast System precip/temp/flow Data Systems Soil, snow & routing parameters Model Calibration
Graphical River Forecast Guidance Merced River Pohono Bridge
Graphical RVF Availability 87 official flood forecast points. n Routine updates. n twice per day. n morning/afternoon. n n Updates during floods. 8 am/2 pm/8 pm/2 am. n as needed. n n Visible to everyone.
Graphical River Forecast Guidance Benefits n Visual image of meteorological and hydrological situation. n More information is presented than in a text product. n Longer range guidance for emergency managers.
Forecasting Balancing Timeliness and Accuracy Forecast Value Timeliness Accuracy Forecast Lead Time
Graphical River Forecast Guidance period information has higher uncertainty. n Ø Ø Ø Timing and amount of rainfall forecast. Rain/snow level forecast. Unanticipated reservoir regulation will affect downstream forecasts and guidance.
New Website http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/ Graphical RVF
New Website http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/ Other River Guidance
Review of 2006 Flood Event Folsom Inflow Forecasts Graphs
Operational Hydrologic Models NWSRFS Structure Operational Forecast System ESP Calibration System
ESP Products n Reservoir inflows n Unregulated rivers n Extended forecasts
AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation n CNRFC implemented AHPS locations n Started in WY 2005 on 70 points
ESP Traces
AHPS – Relevant Products ESP Custom Product Generation
CNRFC Development Areas Flood Forecasting n Dam Break Support n Flash Flood Support n Water Supply Forecasting n Hourly Hydrologic Modeling n Website n http: //www. cnrfc. noaa. gov/
California-Nevada River Forecast Center Thank You