Climate Prediction Center Embracing the Future CPC Management

Climate Prediction Center Embracing the Future CPC Management Team, 32 nd CDPW, Tallahassee, FL, 22 October, 2007 1

Message • NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services: – – Observations Models and Assimilation Systems Computing Support Products and Forecast Services • CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base. • Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges: – CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ. , RISAs, others • New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research Operations Research. 2

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services… To Serve Diverse Customer Base Observe e. g. , Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies… - Process - Assimilate - Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices CPC Respond & Feedback NCEP IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback To develop an appreciation for the full delivery of service, the path must be viewed in a larger context as an end-to-end forecast process 3

Climate Mission “CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. ” • Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years • Official products for the U. S. • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs • 2007/08 Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products 4

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Forecast Lead Time Guidance Warnings & Alert Coordination 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week HPC Days SPC Hours Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC OPC 6 -10 Day Forecast TPC NDFD, Days 4 -7 Winter Weather Desk Days 1 -3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 3 AWC SWPC • • Minutes Environment Health Ecosystem Recreation Agriculture Reservoir Control Hydropower Energy Planning Commerce Emergency Mgmt Fire Weather Maritime Aviation Space Operations The NCEP Centers span Seamless Suite Life & Property Benefits 5

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Months Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Forecast Lead Time Guidance Warnings & Alert Coordination 2 Week 1 Week Days Hours Minutes Climate Forecast System North American Ensemble Forecast System Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Climate/Weather Linkage Ocean Model Hurricane Models -GFDL -WRF Environment Health Ecosystem Recreation Agriculture Reservoir Control Hydropower Energy Planning Commerce Emergency Mgmt Fire Weather Space Operations Maritime Aviation NCEPs model production suite provides guidance for climate prediction Life & Property Benefits 6

FY 07 Highlights - CPC Performance Goals • Exceeded official GPRA goal for US Seasonal Temperature Forecast skill • Unprecedented & sustained increases in skill during weak ENSO Transition Activities • CTB Grants Program: FY 07 AO ($580 K– 4 projects); FY 08 AO ($1. 1 M) New & Improved Climate Products • Monitoring – stormtracks, monsoons, oceans, drought; GIS-conversion • Assessments – Climate Diagnostics Bulletin; Hazards (U. S. , Africa, Tropics) • Outlooks – NAEFS week-2 for T; consolidation tool; objective verification tool Outreach • NOAA - 4 press conferences & 8 web articles (outlooks) – El Niño 2006 - 07 – some impacts (e. g. fewer Atl Hurricanes in 2006); • Lead role in NAME (e. g. May Issue of J. Clim. on NAME - 22 articles) • Host/train international visitors—African Desk (6); Asia bi-laterals(3) 7

U. S. Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill CPC has improved the skill of its official seasonal outlooks, in part, by using more objective techniques (e. g. consolidation tool). There is a regime dependence of skill depending on the influence of the major climate factors, including ENSO and trend. [O’Lenic et al. 2007]. Note decrease in variability last 1 -2 years. (0. 5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal) (0. 5 Month Lead) 8

Storm Track Monitoring Products http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/precip/CWlink/stormtracks/mstrack. shtml § Global coverage (NH, SH, Alaska) § WX-CX linkage: Overlays of stormtracks, precipitation, low-level wind anomalies, wave heights, and sea ice § Monitoring products (10, 30, 90 days) § Forecast products (operational and ensemble mean GFS; week 1 & 2) § Collaboration with EMC & OPC 9

Monsoon Monitoring Products http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon. shtml § Global and Regional Monsoons (Asian, American, African. . ) § Overlays of many fields (SST, soil moisture, winds, temperature, precip) § Monitoring products (7, 30, 90 days) § Weekly updates to US and Global Hazards forecasters and monthly updates for Monthly Climate Review 10

Ocean Monitoring Products § Climatology, monthly, pentad plots and animations § SST, Sea level, heat content, depth 20 C, surface wind stress animations & 30 day averages 11

Monitoring (GIS Format) GIS: Geographical Information System A popular format that allows meteorological fields to be superposed over topography, rivers, roads, and cities. GIS format is preferred by many users. CPC is working with NCO to convert its monitoring and outlook products 14

Climate Diagnostics Bulletin • Electronic (PDF): b&w, color • Improved graphics • Expanded suite of products Ø ocean products based on GODAS; Ø intraseasonal monitoring based on CDAS & GDAS 15

NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services. 16

NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed • The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations – Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research & operational service applications – Embracing the R 2 O and O 2 R paradigms • The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities – CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR) – Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME) – Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS) • Competitive Grants Program • CTB-COLA Seminar Series • CPC-RISA Program • Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY 09) 17

Future Challenges • Climate – Warming trend – Abrupt changes and regime shifts – Natural variability (annual cycle, El Niño, monsoons, MJO, AO) – Extremes (heat waves, storms, droughts) Goal: Align infrastructure & establish partnerships to achieve mission goals focused on these challenges! 20

CPC Strategy (0 -2 yr) Strategic Challenges • Improve products Address Challenges • Product alignment (quality, consistency, reliability) – Inventory – ENSO composites – Verification of official forecasts & tools – Precipitation analyses & related products – Coordination of drought, monsoon briefings with operations • Improve models • Next generation CFS (with EMC) – CFS Reanalysis and Reforecasting • Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (w EMC) – SI Forecast skill • Meet National / International commitments • Agency support (e. g. USDA; USAID) • Project support (e. g. AMMA, NAME) 21

CPC Strategy (2 -5 yr) Strategic Challenges • Address Challenges Improve models New Probabilistic Forecasts for weeks 2 -4 (risks of heat or cold waves; heavy rain events) Objective seasonal drought prediction; NIDIS • • Improve products Objective seasonal TC forecasts (freq; intensity) • Diagnostic and modeling studies – Reduce tropical biases – Understand climate processes – Influences of MJO on ENSO & vice-versa • Meet National / International commitments • Global Climate Training Program • Provide leadership in NOAA’s CIS Program 22

CPC Strategy (>5 yr) Strategic Challenges • Improve products • Improve models Address Challenges • Earth System models (The “E” in NCEP) Seamless prediction (Wx-Cx link; SI & beyond) • Improve Climate Services Collaborative product suites (air quality, ecosystems, human health, H 2 O mgmt) • • • Physical understanding of trends • National Climate Information Service (International? ) • Economic benefits of climate forecast products 23

Message • NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services: – – Observations Models and Assimilation Systems Computing Support Products and Forecast Services • CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base. • Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges: – CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ. , RISAs, others • New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research Operations Research. 25

Back-up Slides 26

Outline • • Message The Climate Mission NWS and NCEP Climate Support FY 07 Highlights - CPC Future Challenges CPC Strategy Message 27

NWS Support for Climate Services • All NCEP products linked directly to: – 122 Weather Forecast Offices – 13 River Forecast Centers – 22 Central Weather Service Units • Regional climate models for “downscaling” purposes • NWS Regions assigned climate focal points for each station with training – outreach materials • Coop modernization Climate Reference Network 28

NCEP Climate Support: Computing $20 M/Year Investment Of which $5 M is for Climate Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5. 7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • Backup in Fairmont, WV 29

Collaborate Across NCEP, NOAA & Beyond Enhance collaboration with NCEP centers • • NCO: transition to compute farm; GIS-conversion; Gr. ADS EMC: CFS reanalysis and re-forecast to support model calibration HPC: coordinate the International Desks OPC: probabilistic storm track products and ocean monitoring products TPC: need for and science behind seasonal TC forecasts SPC: bridge SPC day 4 -8 and CPC day 8 -14 outlooks AWC: backup site for CPC forecast products SEC: evaluate representation of stratosphere in SEC model Enhance collaboration with Climate Program • • • Transition activities (CTB competitive grants programs) International Activities (Global Climate Training Program – FY 10 -14) National Climate Information Service 30

NCEP’s Future Location NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction UMD Research Park, College Park 31