Climate Change What the bleep do we do

Climate Change: What the bleep do we do about it? Faith Ann Heinsch Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group University of Montana April 8, 2008

One possible solution…. . One Big Happy (04/14/2006)

Where are we headed? (Billions of tons per year) Carbon Emissions 14 t 2008 Cu n re r At least Tripling CO 2 h at P Stabilization Triangle 7 Flat Path Avoid Doubling CO 2 1. 9 1954 2004 Year 2054 Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004

The Stabilization Wedge (billions of tons per year) Carbon Emissions 14 h at t. P en r ur C Stabilization Triangle Flat Path 7 2004 Year 2054 Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004

Stabilization Wedges (billions of tons per year) Carbon Emissions 14 We need 7 wedges to build the Stabilization Triangle. h at t. P en r ur C Stabilization Triangle Flat Path 7 2004 Year Each wedge avoids 1 billion tons of emissions! 2054 Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004

Potential Stabilization Wedges Renewable Electricity and Fuels CO 2 Capture and Storage Energy Efficiency and Conservatio n Forests & Soils Fuel Switch Nuclear Carbon Mitigation Initiative (CMI), 2007

What can we do? Transportation • Increase transport efficiency – Double fuel efficiency of cars from 30 mpg to 60 mpg • Reduce miles traveled – Cut the number of miles traveled by car in half • Mass transit, telecommuting

What can we do? Housing Energy Loss From where does air (and, therefore, energy) escape?

What can we do? Energy Loss Housing • Increase efficiency – Block air gaps in doors and windows – Replace older windows using • Insulating glazes • Gas fills • Better framing materials – Purchase Energy Star appliances (www. energystar. gov) • Replace your old refrigerator (esp. those bought before 1993) • Fill your dishwasher completely – Change from incandescent to fluorescent light bulbs.

What can we do? Housing • Increase heating efficiency Energy Loss – Cut emissions by 25% • Lower thermostat – 68 F in winter; 78 F in summer • Increased insulation • More efficient water heaters – Reduce water temperature to 120 F • Renewable energies

What can we do? Reduce Standby Power • 10% of a typical residential electric bill is spent on “standby” power • TVs and VCRs have the greatest consumption • Some standby power is necessary (refrigerator); a lot is just leakage (printer that is turned off) • Estimated reduction of 75% possible in new equipment • Unplug items when not in use

What can industry do? • Efficiency in electricity production • Average efficiency of coal-powered plants is only 33% • Carbon capture and storage • Switch fuels used in generating electricity Geothermal Hydroelectric Wind Nuclear Carbon Capture and Storage Natural Gas

What can the nation do? • Renewable energy – Wind – Solar – Wind hydrogen – Nuclear – Biofuels Solar Geothermal Wind Nuclear Hydroelectric

What can the nation do? • Terrestrial Carbon Storage – Forest – Soil

Where does our power come from? Width of each bar is indicative of gross power production Source: OECDMEA Energy Information 2005 OECDMEA Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries

Wind

Montana Wind Power Resource Estimates

Wind Turbines – Size & Application Small ( 10 k. W) • Homes • Farms • Remote Applications Intermediate (10 -250 k. W) • Village Power • Hybrid Systems • Distributed Power Large (250 -2+ k. W) • Central Station Wind Farms • Distributed Power

Wind Energy in Montana Horseshoe Bend Wind Park Judith Gap Wind Farm

Current Global Wind Capacity (Dec 2006) Total Global Wind Capacity

Wind hydrogen OH 2 H Wind Energy OO HH + HH Energy to fuel cell

Wind-Hydrogen Power

Limitations to Wind Hydrogen • The current limitation to wind hydrogen is transportation of liquid hydrogen – 700 miles of hydrogen pipeline in the U. S. • Nearly half in Praxair’s Gulf Coast system – 310, 000 miles of natural gas pipeline in the U. S. • reaches all corners of the country

GEothermal

GEothermal The Geysers area near Santa Rosa, CA, is the largest geothermal development in the world. (Photograph by Julie Donnelly-Nolan, USGS. )

Montana Geothermal Resource Estimates Geothermal Potential

Ideal Geothermal System

Geothermal Energy in Montana Chico Hot Springs Fairmont Hot Springs Geothermal Energy in Montana - Thermal Resource Potential 8, 755 MWt Installed Capacity 15. 6 MWt Annual Energy Generation 77, 000 MWht Spa Hot Springs

2005 Global Geothermal Electricity Generating Capacity

SOLAR

Montana Solar Power Resource Estimates

Solar Energy • Standard efficiency is 7 -12%, – Some are now getting 22% (Sun. Power Corp. ) – Latest lab results show 40. 7% (Boeing. Spectolab)

Solar Energy • Largest solar thermal energy farm in the world • Located in the Mojave Desert, CA • Provides electricity for a city of 250, 000 (9 plants; 350 MWe)

Concentrating Solar Energy

Current Global Solar Capacity

U. S. Installed PV Power

Nuclear

Nuclear Power Plant Operations Animation from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Students’ Corner http: //www. nrc. gov/reading-rm/basic-ref/students. html

Nuclear Power Plants in the U. S. Accounts for ~19% of the total net electricity generated in the U. S. ; about as much electricity as is used in CA, TX and NY combined.

Global Nuclear Energy

%Electricity Generated from Nuclear Power

Biofuels Ethanol & Bio-Diesel

Sources of Biofuels • Biofuel any fuel with an 80% minimum content by volume of materials derived from living organisms harvested within the ten years preceding its manufacture – Renewable energy source – Derived from carbon recently absorbed by the atmosphere • Natural plants: trees, switchgrass • Agricultural crops: corn, soybean, flaxseed, rapeseed, sugar cane – Energy efficiency depends on biomass feedstock used (tropical/subtropical vs. temperate) and energy required for production – For corn grown in the U. S. , the energy balance may even be negative • Biodegradable outputs: straw, timber, manure, rice husks, sewage, biodegradable waste, food leftovers (e. g. , vegetable oil) • Potential sources: microalgae, hemp

Montana Biofuel Estimates

DOE Integrated Biorefinery Concept

Share of Biofuels in Road-Transport Fuel Consumption

The Value of U. S. Forests Sustainable Harvest* Harvest 368 million tonnes dry biomass / year (749 million acres) Carbon Sequestration $2. 4 -16. 9 Billion “Normal” Forest Products $30. 4 Billion Ethanol $29. 4 Billion (replaces ~10% of current petroleum) *From Biomass as Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry