Climate Change The Move to Action AOSS 480

Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 501) Richard B. Rood 734 -647 -3530 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich. edu http: //aoss. engin. umich. edu. /people/rbrood Winter 2008 February 21, 2008

Class News • A ctools site for all – AOSS 480 001 W 08 • This is the official repository for lectures • Email climateaction@ctools. umich. edu • Class Web Site and Wiki – Climate Change: The Move to Action – Winter 2008 Term

Readings on Local Servers • Assigned – Eakin and Lemos: Building Adaptive Capacity in Latin America (Corrected link from previous lecture) • Of Interest – Antilla: Climate Skeptics and Press Coverage

Lectures coming up • http: //www. snre. umich. edu/events Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game The Erb Speaker Series presents Peter Fusaro, of Global Change Associates: "Energy and the Environment: The New Financial Game. " Refreshments will be served. Date and Time: Wednesday, March 5, 2008 - 5: 00 pm to 6: 30 pm Location: Wyly 0750, 724 E. University, Ann Arbor, Michigan

PROJECTS • Project teams and subjects • An outline of project “form”

GOALS • To provide a knowledge-based analysis of a complex problem. • Purpose of the analysis – Inform an agency head, government official, a corporate manager so that a decision can be made. – Set the foundation for a research program, an initiative, a business plan.

An interesting book for thinking about projects: (Example of process, deconstruction, …) Climate Change: Debating America’s Policy Options David Victor (2004) Council on Foreign Relations, New York, NY 166 pages.

Previous projects Ø New Orleans and Sea Level Rise Ø New Orleans and post-Katrina Public Health Ø Great Lake Fisheries and Climate Change Ø Carbon Taxes and Carbon Markets Ø Role of World Trade Organization in Carbon Policy Ø Texas Coal Power Plants: CO 2 and Public Health Costs

Who are we? • • • Byers, Brian ( byersbh ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Carey, Erin ( careyeb ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Ervin, Joan ( ervinj ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Felt, Justin ( feltju ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Fishman, Daniel ( dbfish ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Horton, Daniel ( danethan ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Johns, Owen ( orjohns ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Johnson, Jaclyn ( jackiejo ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Knudson, Karla ( knudsonk ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Kosmyna, Eric ( ekoz ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Lorenz, Susan ( selorenz ) NRE 501 076 W 08 • • • Mack, Charlotte ( charmack ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Oaida, Catalina ( oaidac ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Rabinsky, Mark ( rabinsky ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Reed, David ( dereed ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Reed, Kevin ( kareed ) AOSS 480 001 W 08, AOSS 605 002 W 08 3 Schlichting, Eric ( eschlich ) AOSS 480 001 W 08 Tawfik, Ahmed ( abtawfik ) AOSS 480 001 W 08, AOSS 605 002 W 08 3, Thoumi, Gabriel ( thoumi ) NRE 501 076 W 08 Ullrich, Paul ( paullric ) AOSS 605 002 W 08 3 Whitehead, Jared ( jaredwh ) AOSS 605 002 W 08 3 Wurtzel, Jennifer ( jbwurtz ) AOSS 480 001 W 08

Project 1 • Hybrid Bus, City-scale initiatives on energy and climate change. • eric • brian

Project 2 • Safeway (corporate) response to California climate intiatives • Mark • Susan • Jen

Project 3 • Navajo Power Plants. Energy, economic development, environmental impact • Jackie • Charlotte • Erin

Project 4 • Carbon and energy. Integrating carbon into the energy institute • Kevin • Gabriel • Joan

Project 5 • Iron fertilization as a way to offset carbon • • Daniel Justin Carla

A Management Idea The first and largest improvements come from a plan, an approach to the problem, and identifying mistakes early This axis is ability to target cost, quality, time

Deconstructing how to think about projects. 1) Describe: What is in the picture? What is known? What is not known? 2) Analysis: How credible is the information? What is the integrity of the reporting? How complete is the picture? Is there derived knowledge? 4) What to do? Consequences? Options? 3) Does it matter? Impact. Consequences. Relations Why?

Projects • I want you to be aware of what is knowledge and what is advocacy. – If you advocate, I want the advocacy clearly separated from what is known. – If you are pushing what you believe, I want you to be fully conscious of that.

Approaching Complex Problems • What are pieces of the problem? – Brain storming – Mind maps • Write down all of the things that you can think of associated with the problem • At this stage do not try to define the relationship between the pieces of the problem.

Consider heat waves and human health AUGUST FOOTBALL PRACTICE HEAT STRESS INDEX URBAN HEAT ISLAND 1995 COOLING CENTERS HOT WEATHER EMERGENCY ROOM ELDERLY EXTREME HUMIDITY GREEN ROOFS PARAMEDICS LINDA RONSTADT MEXICAN BORDER EXTREME DRYNESS CHILDREN ON PLAYGROUND HEART DISEASE CLIMATE CHANGE 2003 NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE FLAWS IN CURRENT SYSTEM MARTHA AND THE VANDELLAS

From the pieces of the problem • Look for organizing notions and concepts. A way to group things. – Function – Discipline, like climate, public health, etc. – Related behavior • The organization is not unique – A piece, like high heat, is likely a member of more than one group: physical climate, health threat, air quality, electrical demand • Avoid trying to make unique assignments of the pieces to groups.

Draw your first picture of elements of the problem HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e. g heat index) ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS Policy HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS Research and Validation ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATIONS

Think about the organization of the problem as a whole. • What are you trying to achieve? – In a complex problem all of the pieces can be brought together towards several possible conclusions. • What you are trying to achieve helps to define relationships between the pieces. It helps to set priorities

Heat Wave System: Basic elements Rethink your first picture. Start to separate your groups into roles. ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e. g heat index) COMMUNICATIONS of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATIONS

Heat Wave System: Basic elements and values HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e. g heat index) COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATION Policy Research and Validation ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS

Make that inventory of • • What is known? What is not known? What do you believe? What do you WANT to believe? • Where do you need more knowledge?

How do things flow through the system? HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e. g heat index) COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATION Policy Research and Validation ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS

How do you check? How does the system inform itself? HUMAN HEALTH AND PHYSIOLOGICAL INFORMATION HEAT-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTS (e. g heat index) COMMUNICATION of PRODUCTS ACTIONS BASED ON PRODUCTS and COMMUNICATION Policy Research and Validation ENVIRONMENTAL OBSERVATIONS and FORECASTS

Enough

Three basic types of information E 3 E 2 G 3 E 4 E 1 En G 2 P 3 G 4 G 1 Gn Environmental Information Geographical Information EW CS P 2 P 4 P 1 Pn Population Information VP 1 VP 2

Projects: Goals and Context • In school students often learn to work independently, in their field, but in jobs people are often thrown into teams – You are suddenly the “expert. ” • Goals – How to define a tractable problem // reduce it to something you can do • Drawing a picture – How to separate the essence of a problem from the details – What do we know, what do we believe, what are we attached to? – What do the other participants really need – not what you think they need. – Check, How to Check – Communication • Complexity, sophistication, audience, context, naivety, dumbing down • How to explain what you are doing. – Balance, optimization

Projects • Bigger goals. . . – How do we move this problem beyond polarized positions on details. • Move it from climate-policy, climate-business, climate-public health, climate-agriculture, climate-ecosystems, climate. . . (interest advocacy groups) • to climate-business-policy-public health - ecosystems – How do we bring several communities together for the development of foundational solutions or at least strategies that make sense. – Systems, systems

Projects • The point --- There is a complex problem, and there a many different communities invested in how the problem is addressed. There is a relationship with climate change. You want to make a knowledge-based evaluation of the problem and present an approach or a set of possible approaches to address the problem. (Want you to be very aware of “advocacy” in your thinking. )

Projects • Think of project in the following ways: – You work as a congressional staffer or an agency staffer. You are asked to analyze whether or not we should drill for oil on the north slope of Alaska. You are required to consider climate change in the analysis. You are to make a team of experts from your staff. Provide a set of knowledge-based options for your congresswoman.

Projects • or think of project this way: – You are a small company of 3 -5 people, working as a startup providing climate expertise. A major paper company calls and wants to know how to think about it’s timber reserves in the presence of possible climate change policy.

Projects • or maybe this way: – You work for a credit card company which for every purchase you make, they estimate the amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere and buy a carbon credit to neutralize the emission. You are asked to quantify and validate that the program is good for the environment.

Projects • or even this way: – You are in the Michigan state government, and Michigan is going to be the energy state. Biofuels, wind energy, and hydroelectric are part of the policy. Analyze the relationship of this energy policy to climate change.