Climate Change — Science Society Us Graeme

Climate Change - Science, Society & Us Graeme I Pearman April 02, 2012 Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd Adjunct Research Fellow, Monash University Science Teachers for Climate Awareness Board, The Climate Institute, START International

• • What is the climate-change issue about? Observed global change Risk, mitigation & adaptation Human dimensions April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

The climate change issue GDP Emissions Choice of technology Human health R ai gr io nf ic di al ul ve l tu rs re it y Energy demand Climate change ea S el v le A Efficiency Climate system impacts Af fl Po pu ue la nc tio e n Aspirations B Energy supply/demand Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of: • Wellbeing • Success Culture, 2011 July 02, education, April 28, 2012 advertising, promotions • Vested interests • Natural resources • Ignorance • Market failure Science Teachers for Climate Awareness • Risk assessment • Beliefs • Ignorance • Sectoral interests Pearman (2012): Aust. J. Environ. Managment

On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction by John Tyndall: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Volume 151, (1861), pp. 1 -36 4

Oxygen concentration at Cape Grim, Tasmania Decline due to combustion of fuels slightly modified by net growth of global vegetation 0 O 2/N 2 ratio (per meg) -100 -200 -300 1990 May 12, 2011 1995 The CEO Circle Melbourne 2000 2005 Keeling et al. 2007 5

• • What is the climate-change issue about? Observed global change Risk, mitigation & adaptation Human dimensions April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Global average temperature is rising April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Mean air temperature Temperature difference (o. C) Average of the past 10 years is in darker grey 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 -0. 5 -1. 0 1910 1920 April 02, 2012 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 1980 1990 2000

Mean sea surface temperature Temperature difference (o. C) Average of the past 10 years is in darker grey 0. 4 0. 0 -0. 4 1910 April 02, 2012 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 1980 1990 2000

Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements Change in mean sea level (mm) 40 20 0 -20 http: //sealevel. colorado. edu and Leuliette et al. , 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1 -2), 79 -94.

Relative Ice Mass (billion tonnes) Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements 800 Contributed 0. 6 mm/year sea level rise 400 Contributed 0. 4 mm/year sea level rise 0 -400 -800 2003 2005 2007 2009 2003 Greenland Ice Sheet 2005 Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 36, L 19503, doi: 10. 1029/2009 GL 040222, 2009. April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 2007 2009

It is the high pressure ridge that dominates much of our climate April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness Australian Bureau of Meteorology

0. 4 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0. 0 -0. 2 -0. 4 1900 April 02, 2012 1920 1940 1960 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 1980 2000 Timbal et al. (2009): South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Sub tropical ridge pressure anomaly (h. Pa, …. ) Global mean temperature anomaly (o. C, ▬) Annual average global temperature & intensity of the pressure of the subtropical ridge

The Centennial Drought • 13 -year drought in the region is unprecedented in: – Extent – Lower year-to-year rainfall variability – Seasonal pattern of the rainfall decline • 13% lower rainfall led to a 46% decline in river flow – 65% of reduction due to the reduced annual rainfall, 7% to increased temperature, 28% unexplained • Low autumn and winter/spring rain linked to: – Broadening Hadley Circulation & subtropical ridge intensification – Associated with global warming/greenhouse gases – Natural variability and ozone depletion also likely contributing factors • Increasing rainfall from systems to the north South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

Rainfall decline in SEA since 1997 20 th century Anomalies 97 - 11 1997 -2011 Anomalies 97 - 09 Rainfall (mm/month) 60 40 20 0 -20 Jan Feb Hanh Nguyen, CAWCR – BOM Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Planetary biology is changing E. g. For south-eastern Australian marine fish • “dramatic” warming of the oceans has been observed • 45 species exhibit major geographic shifts thought to be climate related April 02, 2012 Science Teachers Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr. for Climate Awareness

A 2. 0 5 4 1. 5 3 1. 0 2 0. 5 1 Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population Per Capita Emissions (tonnes C person-1 y-1) R IN D U IA SS JA IA G ER PA M N A SO N Y U TH IR K AN U O N IT C RE ED AN A A K D IN G A D SA M OM EX U IC SO DI U AR O TH A B A IA IN FR D IC O N A ES IA IT A FR B LY R A A A U N ST ZI C L E (in RA L l. M IA o PO na LA co) N SP D A IN SA U IN H C CO 2 emissions (Gt C y-1) Top 20 CO 2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009

Emissions are on the high side of projections s on i pr f igh H do en ect oj h in wt ro ic g om con E g pin o vel de le o Ro oal fc d orl w Aff n tio a nce lue de an s ect xp Dec. 02, 2009 Le Quéré et al. (2009).

10 Global financial crisis 100 8 Asian financial crisis Collapse of the FSU 6 150 US savings & loans crisis Oil crisis 200 4 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Peters et al. (2011): Nature Climate Change: (2011) DOI: doi: 10. 1038/nclimate 1332 Carbon intensity of the economy (g C per $US) Fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (Pg C yr-1) Rapid growth in CO 2 emissions after the 2008– 2009 global financial crisis

• • What is the climate-change issue about? Observed global change Risk, mitigation & adaptation Human dimensions April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Complexity and confidence (for illustrative purpose only) Primary climatechange drivers Carbon dioxide Temperature ·Average ·Extremes ·Seasonality Rainfall ·Average ·Extremes ·seasonality Humidity Complex & secondary outcomes affected by magnitude & frequency Ecosystem & human system impacts Growth rates: Plants and animals Drought Seed quality Run off Vernalisation/ seed set Soil Moisture Soil erosions Salination Sea level Winds April 02, 2012 Species competition Coastal inundation Built environment Economic & environmental outcomes Crop, pasture & agriculture system productivity Ecosystem integrity, genetic richness, resilience Ecosystem services Replacement of built facilities Societal risks Key Vulnerabilities Environmental aesthetics, and function, Tourism Natural systems Cultural values, indigenous rights Fire and drought Human systems management of vulnerabilities Food production, fisheries, crops, pastures, horticulture Water security Coastal communities Bio-security Human Health Critical infrastructure and threats to life Security, wellbeing National security Intergenerational legacy Increasing complexity of systems Decreasing confidence of regionality of change projections Increasing opportunity of adaptive changes to nullify effects Increasing opportunities for extraneous forcing to influence future Science Increasing identification of Teachers for Climate of impacts nature/magnitude Awareness Decreasing confidence in probability of occurrence

Risk arises from multiple directions (e. g. food sector) • Change in productive capacity of the land – Tradeoffs: water, food, fibre, bio-fuels, ecosystems • Changes to available natural resources – Ecosystem services, water • Threats to infrastructure – Storms, hail, inundation • Changing impacts globally – Competitors, suppliers, markets • Revolutionary changes to energy – Sources, utilisation and costs

Risk Assessment Probability of change Magnitude/sensitivity to change Mitigate Potential Exposure Risk Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Strategy Managed adaptation Resilience Ri = f(Pi, Mi) April 02, 2012 T = Σi=αRi Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

In this state of uncertainty We have to do the best we can at this point in time by: • Managing the risk • Retaining a portfolio of options • Keeping options open • Regular reviewing of policy/approaches in light of new knowledge April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

2100 22 C 2050 2100 Equil 2050 Natural Ecosystems Food Security Tourism Heat related deaths Agriculture and Forestry 4 Major Infrastructure 5 Energy Security 6 Coastal Communities 7 Water availability o. C 3 2 1 450 Coping Range Adaptive Capacity 550 750 Ref Vulnerability Pearman (2008): http: //www. treasury. gov. au/lowpollutionfuture/consultants_report/downloads/Risk_in_Australia_under_alternative_emissions_futures. pdft.

Sorting the options for holistic strategies 1. Cost – What are the costs now & when mainstream? – Of stranded assets? – Delivery to market? 2. Technical and physical feasibility – Is it proven or speculative? 3. Capacity to meet demands on time – Can it deliver significant energy on time? 4. Capacity to deliver on time April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 26

Sorting the options for holistic strategies 5. Is it acceptable to the community? – Impacts on: • • • National security of supply Human health Environmental/ biodiversity Community versus vested or narrow interests Jobs Political will 6. Permanency of emissions reductions – Sequestration versus efficiency? April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 27

• • What is the climate-change issue about? Observed global change Risk, mitigation & adaptation Human dimensions April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Securing a clean energy future http: //www. cleanenergyfuture. gov. au/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/securing-a-clean-energy-future-summary. pdf

Securing a clean energy future A carbon price alone is not enough! This is more about a future energy strategy April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Bio-sequestration • The Australian Government: Securing a Clean Energy Future, includes: – – Tax/carbon trading Energy efficiency Renewables Farm carbon • The Liberal Party’s policy of “Direct action on the environment and climate change” claims: – Bio-sequestration to be “the single largest opportunity for CO 2 emissions reduction in Australia” April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Annual energy amounts Solar radiation intercepted by the Earth (5. 75 x 1024 J) Energy stored in all fossil fuels (3. 0 x 1023 J) Content of global atmospheric motions (2. 28 x 1021 J) Australian photosynthetic capture (7. 20 x 1019 J) Australian use of fossil fuels (5. 80 x 1018 J) Australian use by cars (7. 20 x 1017 J) Australian wheat crop (3. 20 x 1017 J) 500 MW power station (1. 58 x 1016 J) Fossil formation (3. 80 x 1014 J) Hurricane Katrina (1. 20 x 1014 J) Hiroshima (6. 30 x 1013 J) 12 (terra) 15 (peta) 18 (exa) Energy exchange (J yr-1) 21 (Zetta) 24 (yotta)

But this demands an holistic consideration • Including assessment of: – The bio-physical constraints – Rate at which change can take place – Potential for other environmental impacts (e. g. net carbon loss from land clearing, nitrogen emissions, biodiversity impacts, improved agricultural soils) – Co-benefits such as human health, jobs, community coherence – Potential impact of a changing climate – Balance of payments – Security of energy supply – Education, training, community acceptance – Likely economic costs • Innovation based on a narrow focus may deliver unanticipated, if not undesirable, outcomes • Today’s decisions & diversion of public/private dollars may create currently unidentified problems for the future April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness Pearman (2012)

Climate change belief types in Australia What best describes your thoughts about CC? 5. 6% 3. 8% I think it is happening and that humans are largely causing it 50. 4% 40. 2% I think it is happening, but it is just a natural fluctuation in Earth temperatures I don’t think it is happening I have no idea whether it is happening or not April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness After: Iain Walker CSIRO

It is not just handful of sceptics Scientists identify threat to sustainability Inform risk analysis Inform wider community Messages filtered by: 1. Behavioral responses, e. g. • • • Diverse views of what is rational Constructivism Diverse emotional reactions and coping mechanisms Beliefs: ideologies, just world, conservatism, myths, attitudes etc. Vested interests/targeted scepticism 2. Institutional structures, e. g. • • Sectoralised society Non strategic evolution of societal structures April 02, 2012 Science Development of public & private. Teachers for Climate policies Awareness Public support 35

Assumptions about rationality Common assumptions • People are essentially rational • Rationality is conscious (we choose) • Denial is a kind of irrationality • Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information Alternative assumptions • What is rational in one context may be irrational in another • Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious • Every rationality is guided by emotion De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC Fien et al. (2008): personal communication April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 36

Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http: //www. psychology. org. a u/publications/tip_sheets/cli mate/ Emotional responses Coping mechanisms Denying Sad Avoiding Depressed Scepticism Numb Desensitises Helpless Depend on others Hopeless Resigned Frustrated Cynical Angry April 02, 2012 Minimising Scared Threat Anxious Fed up Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 37

Conflicting bases for policy development Rationalism Ideas of the way the world is, based on observation, measurement & rational deduction Rational sectorally- defined description of the real world Rational holistically- defined description of the real world Evidence-based policy development Policy development April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Conflicting bases for policy development Rationalism Ideas of the way the world is, based on observation, measurement & rational deduction Rational sectorally- defined description of the real world Rational holistically- defined description of the real world Evidence-based policy development Constructivism Ideas of the way the world is, constructed from & heavily influenced by, subjective perceptions, rules & beliefs The “non-reality world” Policy development April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie - deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate without the discomfort of thought” Awareness John F. Kennedy (1917 – 1963)

Social evolution is opportunistic and devoid of strategic direction Success Environment Technological opportunities Social institutions Biological evolution Diversity Success Time/selection April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness No relation to where the future might best be Social evolution Convergence 41

Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (1): 1. Strategic thinking: – Not stuck with the notion that the way it has been is the way of the future; grasping the opportunities this creates 2. Leadership: – There will be risks and opportunities; risk has to be managed; being an early starter has advantages 3. Flexibility: – Uncertainty is a normal state to be managed; manage the risks through ongoing learning, diversity & nimbleness April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (2): 3. Markets: – Use them but accept that there are externalities; balance markets approaches with non-market tools 4. Reflection: – Consider how our expectations, culture, history, education, market economy, advertising, etc. impact on our behaviour/institutions. Much of this is subconscious & changeable; by bringing motivations to the surface we can challenge their validity 5. Holism: – Rarely are solutions without the potential for cobenefits or dis-benefits. Be wary of sectoralism & maximise value by seeking the former April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Leunig, The Age, July 9, 2011 April 02, 2012 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

Where to get your facts • Australian Academy of Science: The science of climate change: Questions and answers: www. science. org. au/policy/climatechange 2020. html • Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO: State of the Climate 2012: • http: //www. csiro. au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2012. aspx • Royal Society of London: Climate change: a summary of the science: http: //royalsociety. org/climate-change-summary-of-science/ • The Climate Institute: Climate Change Making Up Your Mind: http: //www. climateinstitute. org. au/images/makingupyourmind_top 10_web. pdf • Bureau of Meteorology: http: //www. bom. gov. au/climate/change/ • NASA: Global Climate Change: http: //climate. nasa. gov/ • US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): http: //www. climate. gov/#climate. Watch • UK Meteorology Office: http: //www. metoffice. gov. uk/climatechange/ • New Scientist: Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed: http: //www. newscientist. com/article/dn 11462 • Deutsche Bank: Primer on answers to CC sceptics: http: //www. dbcca. com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbia. Skeptic. Paper 090710. pdf