CLIMATE CHANGE and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTCHALLENGES RESPONSES and OPPORTUNITIES

CLIMATE CHANGE and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTCHALLENGES, RESPONSES and OPPORTUNITIES Presented by: Ma. Rosario Griño Wood Chair, Science Department Professor: Science/Biology, EPM Departments Faculty and Research Associate; : ESI, Miriam College Member of the Board Phil. Network on Climate Change , mwood@mc. edu. ph For: Phil. Export Membership General Assembly Sofitel, Manil October 1, 2009 Source: Time Magazine, 1997 1 PAGASA/DOST

Presentation Outline • Climate Change and Vulnerability of the Philippines to Climate Change Impacts • Climate Change and Sustainable Development • Responses and Opportunities ** UNFCCC ** Kyoto Protocol- Mitigation ** Adaptation Source: Time Magazine, 1997 2 PAGASA/DOST

Our precious planet “I am speaking to all world citizens, and particularly world leaders , that we must take urgent action to fight against climate change. Unless we take action now, we will regret deeply for the future of our humanity, for the future of our planet earth”. Ban Ki Moon 3 Source: Time Magazine, 1997 UN Secretary General PAGASA/DOST

Global warming (IPCC-AR 4, 2007) PAGASA Warming of the climate system is unequivocal • Observed/measured increases ( 0. 75 o. C; 1906 - 2005)in global average temperatures; • Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature since 1850 • Over the past 50 years- Hot days and hot nights have become more frequent. • For the next two decades a warming of about 0. 2°C per decade is projected 4 PAGASA/DOST

Shrinking sea ice Projections: -150 cubic km or 150 B tonnes/yr of Arctic glaciers -Arctic ice-free by 2044 Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004) 5 PAGASA/DOST

Increasing Sea Level Rise (IPCC-AR 4, 2007) • Sea level rise : -thermal expansion, and melting glaciers, ice caps, and polar ice sheets. • 1. 8 mm/yr-3. 1 mm/yr- rate of global average sea level rise from 1961 to 1993; 18 cm-59 cm-(2 m)- projected sea level rise at the end of the 21 st century PAGASA/DOST 6

What are the causes of this global phenomenon? • The way society produces energy • The way society uses finite energy • The way society consumes other resources (natural and man-made) Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs)CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4, HFCs, SF 6 7 PAGASA/DOST

Figure 2. 1 The greenhouse effect 8 PAGASA/DOST

GHGs, Indicators of human Signals of Climate Change … influence CO 2 inc by 30% since 1780 rate of inc unprecedented during the past 20, 000 yrs. CH 4 inc by a factor of 2. 5 during the industrial revolution. 9 PAGASA/DOST

Radiative Forcing Natural: The SUN, Volcanoes, etc Anthropogenic: GHGs, Aerosols, etc C Global Warming: Increase L in global temperature I M Changes in Other A Climate Parameters T • Precipitation, cloudiness E • Wind Circulation C • Atmospheric pressure H A Floods landslides N Drought forest fires G El Nino/La Nina E Strong typhoons Heat waves, etc. Normal Weather and Climate/ Climate variability Increases in positive Radiative forcing, such as GHGs Changes in Ocean • Temperature • Sea level rise • Ocean circulation • Salinity/Acidity Coastal flooding Higher storm surges Salt water intrusion Coral bleaching Fish migration, etc. Changes in Cryosphere • melting glaciers, ice caps/polar ice sheets. • Decline in mountain glaciers, permafrost Accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) Reduced freshwater availability in long run Extinction of species Impacts on systems and sectors: Agriculture (Food, fiber and forest products), Hydrology (Fresh water resources), Ecosystems, Coastal 10 PAGASA/DOST Systems and low lying areas, Industry, Settlement and Society and Health

Anomalies in the Country’s Climate: 1951 -2006 • inc of 0. 6104 o. C in observed mean annual mean temperature; • Inc of 0. 3742 o. C in observed annual max temp; • Inc of 0. 8940 o. C in observed annual min temp; • Inc no. of hot days and warm nights; • Decrease no. of cold days and cool nights; • Inc of annual mean rainfall and rainy days • Inc in inter-annual variability of onset rainfall; • Ave of 20 cyclones cross PAR, 8 -9 landfall each 11 year (inc of 4. 2 in frequency, 1990 -2003) PAGASA/DOST

Vulnerability to Climate Change • Philippine Archipelago- 7, 107 islands; coastline of 34, 000 Km -267, 000 sq Km water -70% of municipalities depend on coastline and marine ecosystems as source of livelihood -located within the Pacific typhoon belt area -82. 5% of Filipino population at risk to tropical cyclones; flooding & storm surge ( M Ph. P 10 -10, 000, 1950 s-2000) -27% of 14. 9 M homes have roofs/walls w/ sub-standard materials & of make-shift, non-engineered structures (NSCB 2003) -A mega-diverse country -9 th among 10 SEA countries in forest cover -4 th most disaster-prone country in the world (Germanwatch 2007) 12 PAGASA/DOST

Vulnerability… • The degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes. -function of: 1. the character, magnitude, and the rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed; 2. sensitivity of natural and social systems to weather and climate (geographic characteristic; the characteristic of the population-level of development and demographic structure; 3. adaptation measures/ actions in place to reduce population 13 the burden of adverse (economic, health) outcomes PAGASA/DOST

Vulnerable populations… • • • Refugees Indigenous and native peoples Nomadic populations Elderly people Children Women People with chronic illnes People with low income Homeless people ( Urban poor ) 14 PAGASA/DOST

Considerations in Addressing Climate Change • CC has 5 dimensions- scientific, technical, economic, social, political • CC is both an environment and a development issue. 15 PAGASA/DOST

Challenges in Addressing CC… • Recognize the clear link between Climate Change & Sustainable Development … that the worsening adverse impacts of CC spawned by increasing build-up of GHG emissions into the atmosphere are clear manifestations of a flawed development model that pursues sustainable economic growth… 16 PAGASA/DOST

Challenges… • CC-SD link through: - ‘Change Climate lens’ - how CC policies could accomplish SD - ‘Sustainable Development lens’ - how alternative development pathways could shape future GHG emissions, thus influence the capacity of communities to cope with CC 17 PAGASA/DOST

Challenges… • Need to create an enabling policy and institutional framework that will facilitate the mainstreaming of CC in the development process both at the national and international levels- lead to the implementation of policy actions that will reduce the vulnerability and increase the resilience of poor local communities to climate and disaster risk 18 PAGASA/DOST

RESPONDING to Climate Change Challenges PMP of Climate Change • Prevention (P) • Mitigation (M) • Preparedness (P) >> HAZARD Analysis >> VULNERABILITY assessment >> ADAPTATION measures >> IEC, Research, Early Warning Systems, etc. WMO 19 PAGASA/DOST

Mitigation… Anthropogenic intervention to -reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system; includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks (CC). -reduce the adverse effects of CC impacts on vulnerable groups (CCA-DRR) 20 PAGASA/DOST

Mitigation measures… • Change of lifestyle • Process/product design • Fuel switch • Energy efficiency 21 PAGASA/DOST

Adaptation… Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. 22 PAGASA/DOST

Why is adaptation necessary? • Main way by which societies can address the impacts of warming; to compliment emission reduction measures (mitigation). • Moderate damage on natural ecosystems due to the inevitable impacts, and more severe impacts predicted in the future. • Reduce the vulnerability of highly vulnerable ecosystems and populations to climate change. 23 PAGASA/DOST

Adaptation: Key Points Adaptation as being complimentary to mitigation (IPCC AR 3, 2001)… - Adaptation has potentials to reduce adverse impacts significantly, but will not be able to prevent all damages. - Natural ecosystems are only allowed to adapt to CC ex post while human systems have the ability to make anticipatory adaptation. 24 PAGASA/DOST

Key Points… - Planned adaptation can reduce vulnerability and offer the potential to take advantage of available opportunities. - The cost of adaptation often are marginal to other management or development cost. 25 PAGASA/DOST

Key Points… -National adaptation strategies must fit in with national plans for development and poverty reduction. -To improve the effectiveness of adaptation to CC, it is necessary to: -- consider the stresses other than climate. -- ensure consistency with existing policy efforts, development objectives and systems (that lessen pressure on resources and improve management of environmental risk). 26 PAGASA/DOST

Key Points… -The ability to adapt differs by region, country, and social group, and changes over time. -The ability for adaptation depends on wealth, technology, information, skills, infrastructure, management, capabilities, access to resources. -Adaptation is a serious issue for developed and developing countries; for small island states, adaptation must be the main response to Climate Change. 27 PAGASA/DOST

Adaptation: Key Issues Differences in key features: Mitigation. . Adaptation ** Impacts & scope of measures ** Time until effects are felt global local long short 28 PAGASA/DOST

Differences in key features… Mitigation…. . Adaptation ** Criteria GHG red’n - No common Inc. of sinks measure to evaluate the adapt’n to different impacts ** Target countries -Annex 1 -All countries 29 PAGASA/DOST

Adapting to climate change (IPCC-WM 0) • Various types of adaptation: >>anticipatory (proactive), >>reactive, >>autonomous (spontaneous) >>planned 30 PAGASA/DOST

Potential Adaptive Responses • Technological • Behavioural • Managerial • Policy 31 PAGASA/DOST

Adaptations to: DROUGHT/DRYING - (IPCC-AR 4, 2007) * Food, Fiber and Forestry Crops: development of new drought-resistant varieties; intercropping; crop residue retention; weed management; irrigation; water harvesting Livestock: supplementary feeding; change in stocking rate; altered grazing and rotation of pasture Social: Improved extension services; diversification of income (SL) * Water resources Management of small water catchment areas; leak reduction Water demand management (metering and pricing) Soil moisture conservation e. g. mulching Education for sustainable water use * Human health Grain storage and provision of emergency feeding stations Provision of safe drinking water and sanitation Strengthening of public institutions and health systems Access to international food markets * Industry, settlement and Society Improve adaptation capacities, especially for livelihoods Incorporate climate change in development programmes Improved water supply systems and co-ordination. PAGASA/DOST between 32 jurisdictions

Adaptations to: Increased Rainfall/Flooding (IPCC-AR 4, 2007) * Food, Fiber and Forestry Crops: Polders and improved drainage; development and promotion of alternative crops; adjustment of plantation and harvesting schedule; Social: Improved extension Services * Water resources Enhanced implementation of protection measures including flood forecasting and warning, regulation through planning legislation and zoning; promotion of insurance * Human health Early-warning systems; disaster preparedness planning; effective post-event emergency relief * Industry, settlement and Society Improved flood protection infrastructure “Flood-proof” buildings Change land use in high-risk areas Managed realignment and “Making Space for Water”/emergency preparedness Empower community institutions 33 PAGASA/DOST

Adaptations to: Warming/Heatwaves (IPCC-AR 4, 2007) * Food, Fiber and Forestry Crops: Development of new heat-resistant varieties; altered timing of cropping activities; pest control and surveillance of crops Livestock: Housing and shade provision; change to heat-tolerant breeds Forestry: Fire management through altered stand layout, landscape planning, dead timber salvaging, clearing undergrowth. Insect control through prescribed burning, non-chemical pest control Social: Diversification of income * Water resources Water demand management (metering and pricing) Education for sustainable water use * Human health International surveillance systems for disease emergence Strengthening of public institutions and health systems National and regional heat warning systems Measures to reduce urban heat island effects through creating green spaces Change of lifestyle * Industry, settlement and Society Assistance programmes for especially vulnerable groups Technological change/change of lifestyle 34 PAGASA/DOST

Adaptations to: Wind speed/Storminess (IPCC-AR 4, 2007) * Food, Fiber and Forestry Crops: Development of wind-resistant crops * Water resources Coastal defense design and implementation to protect water supply against contamination * Human health Early-warning systems; disaster preparedness planning; effective post-event emergency relief * Industry, settlement and Society Emergency preparedness/ early-warning systems More resilient infrastructure Financial risk management options for both developed and developing regions 35 PAGASA/DOST

Responses to CC… What are existing Institutional Framework and policies that address climate change? 36 PAGASA/DOST

• International Level- - UNFCCC; 1992, 1994 - Kyoto Protocol, 1997, 2003 37 PAGASA/DOST

UNFCCC; 1992 / 1994 Ultimate objective is. . ‘to achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference of the climate system. Such level should be achieve at a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner (Article 2). PAGASA/DOST

UNFCCC Principles • …common but differentiated responsibility… • …precautionary measure… PAGASA/DOST

Kyoto Protocol COP 3, Dec. 1997, 2003 • 1 st international policy on CC mitigation • Sets legally binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the EU (Annex I countries) for reducing GHG emissions to an average of 5. 2% against their 1990 levels over the first commitment period, 2008 -2012. PAGASA/DOST

3 Flexible Mechanisms 1. Emissions trading (ET)-Annex I countries buy and sell emission credits among themselves, domestically among governments, and between companies or within companies 2. Joint Implementation (JI)Annex I countries obtain credits for emission reductions by investing in low-emission tech or the development of sinks in other industrialized countries. PAGASA/DOST

3. Clean Development Mechanism, CDM - Annex I countries use investments in sustainable development in developing countries to purchase ‘certified emissions reductions’, CERs. - aims to create an incentive for Annex I countries to supply financing and tech needed for developing countries to make the transition to cleaner production and develop low-emission PAGASA/DOST pathways

The Copenhagen (COP 15) Challenge… • A strong, effective and fair global deal on the ‘ 4 building blocks’-Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology Development , Finance -- Annex I countries must make mandatory, absolute commitments for deeper cuts than under Kyoto; Bali- average of 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020; 80% or more by 2050 -- Annex I countries facilitate tech transfer, & adequate, predictable, sustainable financing for mitigation and adaptation PAGASA/DOST

At the National Level… Significant Milestones in the Philippines’ Response to Address Climate Change Created the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC) in May 1991 Signed the UNFCCC on June 1992 and ratified it on August 2, 1994 Signed the Kyoto Protocol on April 15, 1998 and ratified it on November 20, 2003 Designated the DENR as the National Authority for CDM on June 25, 2004 by virtue of Executive Order No. 320 Issued DENR Adm. Order 2005 -17, August 2005 on the Implementing Rules and Regulations Governing E. O. 320 Created the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change (PTFCC) on Presidential Administrative Order No. 171 Signed February 20, 2007 Created an Advisory Council on Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation and Communication DENR Special Order No. 2007 -653, September 25, 2007 44 PAGASA/DOST

Philippine Initiatives on Mitigation and Adaptation • Philippine National Action Plan on CC Aimed at: -- integrating climate change concerns into the government’s development plans and programs, --develop adaptation response to climate change impacts, --design mitigation measures which are “no regrets” in character; 45 PAGASA/DOST

ADB Climate Change Project (1991) – conducted vulnerability studies – generated a rapid assessment of the country’s vulnerable sectors and areas to climate change (agriculture, water resources and coastal areas) 46 PAGASA/DOST

Pipeline Projects on Adaptation and Mitigationto Climate Change 47 PAGASA/DOST

Climate Change Adaptation Phase 1 GEF Implementing Agency/Executing Agency: The World Bank • The proposed project, the first phase of a long-term adaptation by the Government of the Philippines, has the following four building blocks: Improve coordination of adaptation policy by DENR Implement climate risk reduction in key productive sectors Strengthen proactive disaster management within the NDCC Enhance provision of scientific information for climate risk management 48 PAGASA/DOST

MDG-F 1656 Joint Programme Proposal: Strengthening the Philippines’ Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change • UNDP/Spain MDG Achievement Fund under the MDGF Country Thematic Window for Environment and Climate Change and is aligned with the priority area of “Enhancing Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change” • Objective Aims to achieve three outcomes in the area of: policy / planning / programming; capacity development of concerned national govt. institutions and local governments and local higher educational institutions; and capacity development of communities to develop demonstrable climate change adaptation measures. 49 PAGASA/DOST

What are the opportunities for moving CC, CCM, CCA and DRR forward? PAGASA/DOST

Opportunities…on Policy and Governance • Existence of inter-agency and local special bodies that address climate and disaster risk. NDCC- the inter-agency task to respond weather and climate-related disasters. The existence of DCCs at the national, provincial, city/municipal and barangay levels, provides the opportunities for greater cohesion and cross-sectoral participation on sharing of practices, experiences, expertise, and developing policy recommendations, tools, methods and approaches for assessing climate and disaster risks. IACCC- on CDM PAGASA/DOST

MOVING FORWARD… on Policy Reform and Governance – Review the over-all existing economic development strategy to conform w/ the principles of PA 21 localized and institutionalized at all levels of governance; – Integration of DRR and CCA; develop and implement a comprehensive and coherent national policy strategy and framework that integrates CC-CCA. CCADRR into existing development/sectoral policies, plans (i. e. , MTPDP, land use plans and building code) and programs, as well as their institutional and funding mechanisms at the national and local levels; PAGASA/DOST

Opportunities…on Awareness and Capacity Building • Integrated and holistic nature of CSOs’ intervention package that combines community organizing, IEC using popular tri-media, livelihood development, environmental protection and advocacy. PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Awareness and Capacity Building - Production & dissemination of IEC mats on CC, CCM, CCA-DRR in popular form - Mandatory curriculum integration and extensive IEC campaigns and capacity building programs to: --develop ‘functional literacy’ on CC, CR, CCA --produce a rich pool of community trainers & technicians --facilitate integration of CC and CCA-DRR into business’ programs & initiatives PAGASA/DOST

Opportunities…on Livelihood Development - Existing diversified sustainable livelihood/economic activities (offfarm, home-based microenterprise) to the poor, vulnerable, marginalized sectors. PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Technology Development and Diffusion - Vigorously pursue the development, enhancement, replication and scaling up, and promotion of cost effective, environmentally sustainable, socially acceptable, culturally compatible technologies that build the capacity of business to mitigate CC, and of vulnerable communities to adapt to the adverse impacts while at the same time providing profit, income and employment opportunities PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Technology Development and Diffusion • Strengthen linkages with research institutions to: - facilitate sharing and exchange of knowledge and information among scientists/experts, business community, policy/decision makers, advocates and practitioners to foster better understanding of mitigative and adaptive technologies ; - mainstream scientific evidence of socio-economic impacts/costs and benefits of mitigative and adapative technologies to provide a sound basis for policy and program formulation PAGASA/DOST

Opportunities…on Advocacy and Networking -Existence of inter-sectoral coordination and stakeholder partnership PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Advocacy and Networking Establish/ Strengthen: • linkages/partnerships w/ NGOs, other CSOs, the academe and LGUs through collaborative projects, research and documentation on CCA-DRR • CSO advocacy and lobby work at national and local levels to mainstream CC- CCA into development policy, plans and budgets PAGASA/DOST

Opportunities…on Financing Availability of funding support from various donor agencies/institutions- NGOs, business and multilateral development agncies (UN Systems, AF, CCF, GEF, WBCIF, etc) PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Financing - Allocate funding resources equitably for CC adaptation and mitigation projects ( technology development, awareness and capacity building, policy research, demo projects, etc) -Promote micro-finance/insurance schemes such as revolving credit mechanisms that mobilize own savings of the poor and vulnerable sectors, and other forms of social protection (i. e. , employment support through public works/food-for-work schemes) PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Database/Knowledge Management - Build and maintain a gender-disaggregated database (covering socio-economic and bio-physical and climatic data and information at the local/community level) that can serve as important inputs to local vulnerability and adaptation assessment and planning, and for the development of popular IEC materials for use and dissemination at the local level; - Undertake collaborative research projects with academic/research institutions to bridge the gap between science, policy and practice, and to increase CSO capacity in research and documentation of local/community-based initiatives and practices that can enhance local adaptation; PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Database/Knowledge Management • Develop and disseminate best practice tools and methodologies as inputs to mainstream CC and facilitate sharing and exchange of initiatives, lessons and experience gained from climate mitigation and adaptation intervention. PAGASA/DOST

Moving Forward…on Program Design and Management - Develop & implement programs/projects with clearly defined intervention schemes (entry, consolidation/ strengthening, and phase-out) that will enhance human, social, financial, physical & natural capital of the poor and vulnerable sectors including women; - Develop & institutionalize participatory monitoring & evaluation systems for comprehensive/sectoral programs/projects that incorporate CC-CCM, CC-CCA, and SD criteria and indicators against which to measure effectiveness and sustainability of prog/projects PAGASA/DOST

What can I do? • Be Informed! • Be Heard! • Be Committed! 65 PAGASA/DOST

THE GLOBAL POLITICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE… ”we know the answers. We have capacities, financially and in technology. What I am worried about is that, still there is a lacking part, which is the political will”. Ban Ki Moon , UN Sec. Gen 66 PAGASA/DOST

Thank You! Ma. Rosario G. Wood mwood@mc. edu. ph 67 PAGASA/DOST