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Climate Change Adaptation for Sustainable Livelihoods in the Agricultural Sector: the case of Bangladesh Climate Change Adaptation for Sustainable Livelihoods in the Agricultural Sector: the case of Bangladesh Selvaraju Ramasamy Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division FAO, Rome

Drought Prone Areas in Bangladesh 600 40 Rainfall (mm) ET (mm/month) Tmax(°C) Tmin (°C) Drought Prone Areas in Bangladesh 600 40 Rainfall (mm) ET (mm/month) Tmax(°C) Tmin (°C) 35 500 30 Temperature (°C) Rainfall / ET (mm) 400 25 300 20 15 200 10 100 5 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Jan 0 Feb 0 Rabi– Karif. II Rabi Seasons

Analytical Framework Assessments Outcomes/interventions Livelihood profiles and assets Local risk perception and coping strategies Analytical Framework Assessments Outcomes/interventions Livelihood profiles and assets Local risk perception and coping strategies Climate change scenarios and anticipated risks Awareness raising & Advocacy Inter- ministerial coordination Risk Analysis Impacts of climate variability and change Hazard and vulnerability analysis and monitoring Enabling and disabling institutions and support services Hazard risk mitigation and climate adaptation (options) • Institution Building (entry point DRM) · Agricultural technology diversification · Better integration of hazard risk management rehabilitation-development efforts · Enhanced Climate Forecast Applications · Livelihood enhancement or diversification · Gender sensitive adaptation Capacity building • Legislation, standards setting • Training of key stakeholders • Policy advice

Future Climate Change: downscaling scenarios Year Sea level rise (cm) Season Temperature increase (ºC) Future Climate Change: downscaling scenarios Year Sea level rise (cm) Season Temperature increase (ºC) Precipitation fluctuation (%) as compared to 1990 (%) change in evaporation 2030 30 Monsoon +0. 7 + 11 +15. 8 Winter +1. 3 -3 - 0. 9 Monsoon Winter +1. 1 +1. 8 +28 -37 +16. 7 0 2050 50 Source: National communication Do. E, BGD, 2002 Temperature change (ºC) mean (standard deviation) Year Precipitation change (%) mean (standard deviation) Annual DJF JJA 2278 mm 33. 7 mm 1343. 7 mm DJF JJA Baseline average 2030 1. 0 (0. 11) 1. 0 (0. 18) 0. 8 (0. 16) +3. 8 (2. 30) -1. 2 (12. 56) +4. 7 (3. 17) 2050 1. 4 (0. 16) 1. 6 (0. 26) 1. 1(0. 23) +5. 6 (3. 33) -1. 7 (18. 15) +6. 8 (4. 58) Agarwala et al. , 2003

Strengthening Institutional set-up Mo. A- DAE Operational Structure Mo. FDM Operational Structure DMB NTIWG Strengthening Institutional set-up Mo. A- DAE Operational Structure Mo. FDM Operational Structure DMB NTIWG DAE – Technical Core Group DMB, DAE, BMD, DRR, LI, Do. E District DMC Upazilla DMC DAE: Department of Agriculture Extension DMC: District Disaster management Committee DMB: Disaster Management Bureau District Deputy Director Upazilla Ag. Officer UTIWG Union DMC Project officers Sub. Assistant Ag. Officer NTIWG: National Technical Implementation Working Group Community/Farmer Groups/Associations/Local Facilitation Team National expert advisory group

Typology of adaptation options in AG/LI, FI and FO 1. Agronomic management 2. Water Typology of adaptation options in AG/LI, FI and FO 1. Agronomic management 2. Water harvesting and exploitation 3. Water Use efficiency 4. Crop intensification 5. Alternative crop enterprises 6. Post harvest practices

Seasonal planning for implementation of options Pre-seasonal good practice identification and validation meeting (Clearing Seasonal planning for implementation of options Pre-seasonal good practice identification and validation meeting (Clearing house mechanisms) to decide on new good practices for demos and on replications n seasonal working plans before each cropping season for immediate implementation n

Community Mobilization and Field Demonstration n Awareness raising n cultural programmes for awareness creation Community Mobilization and Field Demonstration n Awareness raising n cultural programmes for awareness creation of local people about climate change adaptation Extension strategies n orientation meetings, farmer field schools, folk songs and drams, demonstration rally, exchange visits Mobilization of local community n Farmer Groups n Local facilitation Team (LFTs)

Capacity Building i) Climate risk and impact analysis n climate risk analysis methods n Capacity Building i) Climate risk and impact analysis n climate risk analysis methods n climate change impacts ii) n n iii) n n Climate forecast applications for drought mitigation introduction to forecast products Application of weather and climate forecast products Available adaptation options in Agriculture viable adaptation options Prioritized adaptation options and methods of implementation

Integration of climate forecasts to enhance adaptive capacity Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate Integration of climate forecasts to enhance adaptive capacity Providing climate outlook Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios Communication to/ from farmers

Complementary adaptation measures Physical adaptive measures Livelihood enhancement Income diversification Strengthening community as well Complementary adaptation measures Physical adaptive measures Livelihood enhancement Income diversification Strengthening community as well as formal institutional structures Financial mechanisms for risk transfer public private partnerships

Testing of locally selected adaptation options Mini pond for supplementary irrigation during drought spells Testing of locally selected adaptation options Mini pond for supplementary irrigation during drought spells Homestead gardening

Testing of locally selected adaptation options Dry seedbed practice with minimal supplemental irrigation Jujubi Testing of locally selected adaptation options Dry seedbed practice with minimal supplemental irrigation Jujubi (Ziziphus jujuba) was considered as a potential alternative option to existing autonomous mango cultivation

Adaptation Framework Improving Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change Stakeholder engagement and feedback Up-scaling and Adaptation Framework Improving Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change Stakeholder engagement and feedback Up-scaling and mainstreaming Advocacy, broader awareness raising and networking Economic feasibility studies Advocacy, broader awareness raising and networking Designing local adaptation strategies Economic feasibility studies Field based demonstration and application of adaptation options Validation and selection of adaptation options Identify suitable adaptation options and extension methods Identification and testing Adaptation options Institutional and technical capacity building Community mobilization and local awareness raising Identification of adaptation options including local technologies Future climate impact assessment & outlooks Assessing future risks Local agro-meteorological data collection and monitoring Downscaling climate change scenarios Assessing natural, socio-economic and institutional framework Assessing current vulnerability Assessing current climate risks Livelihood assessment & profiling Assessing local perception on risks to be addressed in second phase of LACC

Key Lessons: Entry points Current climate variability and DRM n Awareness raising n Doing Key Lessons: Entry points Current climate variability and DRM n Awareness raising n Doing better on known sustainable land water management practices n Indigenous knowledge and no regret options n

Key Lessons n n n n Climate change further declines the adaptive capacity need Key Lessons n n n n Climate change further declines the adaptive capacity need to launch adaptation measures now. BUT HOW to work in a relatively uncertain state; Climate Change Adaptation is location specific and social learning process – learning how to adapt better; Strengthening institutions with clearly determined responsibilities DRR, climate change adaptation and development goes together at the local level strengthening research-development linkages to address the future risks Community based adaptation links bottom up livelihood perspectives and government led top down approaches monitoring on-going adaptation practices, alert on risks of mal-adaptation, and establish links with policy making promote public – private partnership to support inputs

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