Chornobyl - Fukushima A view of Fukushima through the prism of Chornobyl experience Oleg Nasvit National Institute for Strategic Studies
Present problems and issues Levels – Areas Evacuation Zones – Uncertain Homecoming Psychological issues Employment problems Ash war Energy shortage Measurements methodology (“TEPCO says it will take at least two weeks to analyze the strontium level in the water”) • Environmental sampling methodology • •
A map taken from the last UNSCEAR Chornobyl Report
第３次航空機モニタリング結果とセシウム１３７の土壌濃度マップの比較について this map is taken from 文部科学省による放射線量等分布マップ （放射性セシウムの土壌濃度マップ）の作成について
Two maps in the same scale
Resricted Area, Deliberate Evacuation Area, Evacuation. Prepared Area in case of Emergency And Evacuation Recommendation Spots (As of August 3, 2011)
NHK: Fukushima University Sociological Survey. November, 2011 http: //www 3. nhk. or. jp/nhkworld/english/movie/feature 201111242000. html 150 ths (present value is about 120 ths) of evacuated are still anticipated homecoming. More than 28000 households were evacuated House of Mr. Hiromishi Sato is 2. 5 km from the F-1 exhaust stack, dose rate is over 500 mc. Sv per hour as of Nov 25.
Risk comparison is important • Residents wary of call to return to village near crippled Fukushima plant (Mainichi Japan. The Mainichi Daily News) February 1, 2012 http: //mdn. mainichi. jp/mdnnews/20120201 p 2 a 00 m 0 na 014000 c. html Before the nuclear disaster, Sekine was self-employed, taking on contracts for work like plumbing or spraying agricultural pesticide. …The Kawauchi village government has said that jobs will be available in radiation decontamination work, but this does not alleviate Sekine's concerns. Some residents concern: "Why should those of us who fled from radiation now have to do jobs where we are bathed in it? " he asks. Comment of O. N. : If someone works professionally with spraying agricultural pesticides, he should not care of Fukushima radiation, his risk will not increase.
Quick learning • Meanwhile, Kawauchi Mayor Yuko Endo told at a news conference on Jan. 31: "We felt that if there was a possibility people could return, we should expand that possibility. " In November last year, Endo visited the site of the Chernobyl disaster. He says that, seeing how the residents there were forced into long-term evacuation, he felt: "If there is still something we can do, we should do it. " • "If evacuated people get used to the conveniences of the city and living off of compensation payments, they will lose their drive to work and to return to their homes. If the villagers fall, the national and prefectural governments will not pick them up. People of the village have to do that, " he said.
Japan's Environment Ministry has compiled guidelines for the removal of radioactive materials discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The 164 -page document with illustrations was disclosed at a meeting of experts on Sunday. It was compiled for residents of cities and municipalities Sunday, December 11, 2011 23: 28 +0900 (JST) http: //www 3. nhk. or. jp/daily/english/20111211_19. html
This is very good, but… • We advice residents how to do. But what about why and what to do? • Decontamination and remediation. The same word in Japanese, but really different meaning in English. This is of outmost importance! • IAEA Guidelines on remediation are based on Chornobyl experience. • First – to understand the dose structure. Then – to address the main dose-forming pathways.
A good sign • News Navigator: How is radioactively tainted farm soil decontaminated? (Mainichi Japan) February 10, 2012 http: //mdn. mainichi. jp/perspectives/news/20120210 p 2 a 00 m 0 na 002000 c. html • Soil is plowed in an experiment to lower the concentration of radioactive materials in Minamisoma, Fukushima Prefecture in this recent photograph. (Mainichi) • Researchers are looking into various options. Tokyo University of Agriculture professor Itsuo Goto is experimenting in the Fukushima Prefecture city of Minamisoma with the method of plowing soil down to a depth of 15 centimeters to lower the concentration of radioactive cesium. This method does not require the removal and storage of topsoil. Goto is also proceeding with an experiment to spread zeolite, which absorbs radioactive materials, onto farm fields to limit the absorption of radioactive materials by crops.
What will be the dose reduction? Govt releases rules for nuclear fallout cleanup Wednesday, December 14, 2011 17: 47 +0900 (JST) http: //www 3. nhk. or. jp/daily/english/20111214_27. html Japan's Environment Ministry has issued specific rules and procedures for cleaning up fallout from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The ordinance says the central government will shoulder the cost of decontaminating soil in areas with radiation levels of 0. 23 microsieverts per hour or above. The government is also responsible for disposing of sludge and debris contaminated with radioactive cesium of more than 8, 000 Becquerel per kilogram. The ordinance is aimed at accelerating the clean-up work being done by the public sector. The Environment Ministry will next week announce the names of more than 100 municipalities in northern Japan and areas around Tokyo where clean-up efforts are necessary.
Psychological issues Teachers in disaster area suffering depression Monday, December 12, 2011 08: 18 +0900 (JST) http: //www 3. nhk. or. jp/daily/english/20111212_10. html A survey has found that one in 3 teachers in the disaster-hit Miyagi Prefecture suffers from depression. A local teachers' union surveyed 3, 375 teachers at public elementary and junior high schools in the prefecture in September and October. 1, 029 teachers, or 30. 5 percent, said they have experienced mild-to-moderate depression. The percentage of teachers reporting moderate depression was twice as high in the hardest-hit coastal cities, including Ishinomaki and Higashimatsushima, than elsewhere in the prefecture.
Unemployment Disaster survivors face harsh employment situation Sunday, December 11, 2011 10: 12 +0900 (JST) http: //www 3. nhk. or. jp/daily/english/20111211_06. html Sunday marks 9 months since the earthquake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan on March 11 th. Disaster survivors are facing a harsh employment situation. In affected areas, 66, 366 people were receiving unemployment benefits as of October. Benefits for most of them will start to expire in January of next year (already this year). In the hardest-hit prefectures of Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima, just 4, 527 people found a full-time job in October. Short-term employment is increasing. But few companies have restored operations to pre-disaster levels, failing to produce enough stable jobs to help rebuild the livelihood of affected people. The National Police Agency says the number of dead and missing from the disaster in the Tohoku region stood at 19, 270 as of Friday. By prefecture, Miyagi has 11, 385 victims, followed by Iwate with 6, 053, and Fukushima with 1, 826.
Stricter food limits enhance unemployment TOKYO (Kyodo) -- A government panel on Thursday approved the health ministry's proposal for far stricter limits on radioactive cesium found in food, paving the way for the ministry to enforce the new limits in Japan in April. The Radiation Council noted the new limits are based on an assumption that most of Japanese food products are contaminated with cesium. The panel also pointed out that food with cesium levels slightly above the new limits would have little effect on human health. As the new limits could impede sales of farm products from Fukushima Prefecture, the government should respect the views of their producers as much as possible in enforcing the new limits, it said. The new limits, which come between one-20 th and a quarter of the present tentative limits depending on food categories, are set at 100 becquerels per kilogram for regular food items such as rice and meat, 50 becquerels for milk and infant food, and 10 becquerels for drinking water. Citizens' groups have called for even stricter cesium limits. Comment of O. N. : Taking into account the information received from Sugawara-san during the meeting, that WBC survey showed less than 1 m. Sv/y of internal exposure of population, this introduction of new standards will just strike farmers with no radiological effect. Maybe it will have some temporary positive psychological effect. But on my mind this is an easy but a wrong way to address psychological anxiety.
Ash war Radioactive ash returned from Akita Wednesday, December 07, 2011 19: 29 +0900 (JST) http: //www 3. nhk. or. jp/daily/english/society. htm Akita Prefecture in northern Japan has In July, radioactive substances above begun to return radioactive ash from the government's safety limit were incineration of garbage to the prefecture detected in ash brought to Akita from the ash was sent from. The ash had been two cities in Chiba Prefecture, raising brought to Akita from 10 municipalities in 6 concerns among residents near the prefectures located near Tokyo. incinerators. Because of the opposition of residents living There has been no place to store a near the garbage incineration plants, the total of 245 tons of ash with radiation prefecture has decided to return the levels below the government's radioactive ash to the municipalities of origin. safety limit. Akita Prefecture has begun to return the radioactive ash to the 10 municipalities of origin.
Energy shortage in Japan
Energy shortage in Japan’s Trade Deficit Widens in January Published on 2/20/2012 10: 53: 57 AM | By Trading. Economics. com, Ministry of Finance Japan’s trade deficit widened to a record level in January, as falling exports combined with surging imports of energy. Imports rose 9. 8 per cent from a year earlier, while exports were down 9. 3 per cent, resulting in a record monthly deficit of Y 1. 48 tn ($19 bn). Last year Japan’s trade balance fell into an annual deficit for the first time since 1980, driven by subdued global demand soaring fossil fuel imports in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear power crisis. http: //www. tradingeconomics. com/japan/balance-of-trade
• Comment of my American friend as of 1994 on Chornobyl arrangements in Ukraine: If the US has the same arrangements it would destroy American economy
Вклад “чорнобильського” опромінення в сумарну дозу є незначним Структура дози опромінення В масштабах пересічного українця держави серед радіологічних чинників чорнобильське опромінення є чинником другорядним Навіть на територіях, віднесених до зон радіоактивного забруднення, “чорнобильська” паспортна доза є істотно меншою від природної м. Зв
Несумірність 2010: Потреба та план, млн. грн. Потреба > 57 млрд. грн. На 2010 р. видатки державного бюджету 322, 7 млрд. грн. Чорнобильські видатки
Сьогодні віднесення населених пунктів до зон радіоактивного забруднення не відповідає їх фактичному радіологічному стану Зони 1 відчуж. 2, >5 м. Зв 3, 1– 5 м. Зв 4, 0, 5– 1 м. Зв Віднесення населених пунктів до зон радіоактивного забруднення згідно чинних нормативно-правових актів Дози 3, 1– 5 м. Зв 4, 0, 5– 1 м. Зв <0, 5 м. Зв Дози опромінення в населених пунктах, віднесених до зон радіоактивного забруднення за результатами дозпаспортизації 2008 року
Зонування радіоактивно забрудненої території України згідно чинних нормативно-правових актів Компенсації та доплати за проживання та роботу на територіях радіоактивного забруднення, млн. грн. (потреба згідно з законом, 2010 р. ) Зони 4 3 2 1 Компенсації за Доплати проживання за роботу 3957, 98 12278, 96 1956, 96 9055, 56 18, 93 99, 22 163, 25 Разом 16236, 94 11012, 52 118, 15 163, 25
Please, do not repeat our mistakes
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