China’s “Good Neighbor” Policy in Southeast Asia: or “How to Be a Regional Hegemon and Still Be Liked” Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. Department of Political Science Indiana University of Pennsylvania NEH/ASDP 2011 “Dynamics of Cultural Unity and Diversity in Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Southeast Asia” Jackson, Ph. D.
Southeast Asia: Context Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 2
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The Paradox International Relations Theory Posits that Power Shifts Can Lead to Tensions, Counter-Balancing, Conflict; Overwhelming Power Becomes a Hegemon China’s Power vis-à-vis Southeast Asia Since 1980 Has Shifted Dramatically However, China’s Relations with Southeast Asia Today Are Far Better than in Previous Decades 4 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. Answer is Partially the Result of a “Good
Evolution of Policy Phase 1: Inaction Phase 3: Moderated Action: “Good Neighbor” Phase 2: Over-Reaction Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 5
Indicators of China’s Regional Dominance Population Military Economic Opinion Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 6
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Source: SIPRI Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 8
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China’s Rank as Trade Partner, Southeast A Country Imports Exports Brunei 3 5 Cambodia 3 10 Indonesia 1 2 Laos 2 2 Malaysia 2 1 Myanmar 1 3 Philippines 2 1 Singapore 3 2 Thailand 2 1 Vietnam 1 3 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 18
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 19
National Averages Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. Source: East Asia Barometer, 2005 -2006 25
Evolution of Policy Phase 1: Inaction Phase 3: Moderated Action: “Good Neighbor” Phase 2: Over-Reaction Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 26
The Late Qing Dynasty Pogroms of Chinese Overseas Ignored China Saw overseas Chinese as “…outcasts who had not hesitated to abandon their homeland for the sake of commerce. ” Most of Southeast Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. Asia Under 清 代 27
Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949 -79 China Became Communist in 1949, SE Asia Independent North Korea Invaded S. Korea 1950 Vietnam War Created a Communist North USA Intervention, Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 28
Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949 -79 Overseas Chinese Communities Often Seen as “Fifth Columnists” Malayan Emergency Indonesia 9/65 China Highly Critical of Moves Against Ethnic Chinese by Southeast Asian Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 29
Counter-Action: ASEAN Formed 1967 Initially Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore Substantial Anti. Communist Insurgency in Focus Key Effort to Create a Common Front vis-à-vis External Powers Eventually Admitted Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 30
Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949 -79 Data Show Chinese Higher Chinese Tendency to Use Force 1949 -69 Soviet Involvement in Southeast Asia Vietnamese Invasion of Pol Pot Regime in Cambodia, 12/78; Chinese Retaliatory Invasion of Northern Vietnam 2/79 Expulsion of Ethnic Chinese from 31 Vietnam Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D.
Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy” Chinese Diplomatic Situation Spring 1989 Isolation After Tiananmen 6/4/89 Normalization of Relations with USSR Li Peng tour of Southeast Asia 1990 Secret Sino-Vietnamese Negotiations in Chengdu 1990 Vo Van Kiet and Party leader Do Muoi 32 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. Visiting Beijing 11/91
Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy” Chinese Approached Suharto During Showa Emperor’s Funeral early 1989, Accepted Negotiations Throughout 1989 August 1990 Li Peng Visit to Jakarta to Normalize Relations Singapore Last Normalization as per Lee Kwan Yew Pledge Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 33
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South China Sea Conflicting Claims to Islands and Reefs China/Taiwan, Vietnam: All Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei: Portions At Issue, Hydrocarbon Potential, Sea Lanes Clashes 1974, 1988, 1995 Subsequent Negotiation of Code of Conduct 2002 Through ASEAN Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 36
ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Est. 1993/94 from PMC Explicitly Security Organization Members: Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Canada, China, Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, 37 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D.
ASEAN +3/ APT/ 10+3 Est. 1997 in response to financial crisis, “Chiang Mai Initiative” Formalized 1999 Includes ASEAN, China, South Korea, Japan “China endorses the role of ASEAN Plus Three as the main channel for the advancement of East Asian 38 cooperation. ” Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D.
China Myanmar “+3” S. Korea Japan Philippines Thailand Laos Vietnam U S A Cambodia Malaysia Singapore Indonesia ASEAN Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 39
Competitive Institutions Formed 1989 by Australian Proposal 21 members Includes USA, Russia, Mexico, Peru, Taiwan Too Diffuse to be Real Competition No Exclusion; Can Be Members of Both Coming to Honolulu in Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 40
Conclusion Resolution of the Paradox: Decline of Ideology of Communism Resolution of Status of Overseas Chinese Collapse of External Actor Balancing Against Intentions More than Capabilities Triumph of Diplomacy, and of Southeast 41 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. Asian Initiative
ASEAN-China Free Trade Area Initial Agreement Signed 2002, launched 2003 Further Implementation in 2010 Does not include Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 42
Myanmar: Export Partners, 1980 -2010 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 43
Myanmar: Import Partners, 1980 -2010 Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 44
Myanmar: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 45
Myanmar: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 46
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 47
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 48
Indonesia: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 49
Indonesia: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 50
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 51
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 52
Laos: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 53
Laos: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 54
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 55
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 56
Philippines: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 57
Philippines: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 58
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 59
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 60
Malaysia: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 61
Malaysia: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 62
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 63
Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 64
China: Export Partners 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 65
China: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 66
Japan: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 67
Japan: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 68
Singapore: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 69
Singapore: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 70
Thailand: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 71
Thailand: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 72
Vietnam: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 73
Vietnam: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 74
Cambodia: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 75
Cambodia: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 76
Brunei: Export Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 77
Brunei: Import Partners, 2010 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 78
Soft Power Joseph Nye, 1990 Foreign Policy Article 软实力 Confucius Institutes, Chinese Language Instruction, Youth Volunteers, Foreign Aid, Trade, Investment But Does it Work? Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 79
Confucius Institutes 30 in Southeast Asia: Indonesia: 7 Singapore: 2 Myanmar: 2 Malaysia: 2 Philippines: 3 Thailand: 12 Cambodia: 1 Laos: 1 Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 80
Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph. D. 81
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