Скачать презентацию Chapter 9 Project Management Operations Management — 5 Скачать презентацию Chapter 9 Project Management Operations Management — 5

cd0cf1aa439282eda876443ff6a5ec39.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 44

Chapter 9 Project Management Operations Management - 5 th Edition Roberta Russell & Bernard Chapter 9 Project Management Operations Management - 5 th Edition Roberta Russell & Bernard W. Taylor, III Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Beni Asllani University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Lecture Outline w Project Planning w Project Scheduling w Project Control w CPM/PERT w Lecture Outline w Project Planning w Project Scheduling w Project Control w CPM/PERT w Probabilistic Activity Times w Project Crashing and Time-Cost Trade-off Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -2

What is a Project? w Project n unique, one-time operational activity or effort w What is a Project? w Project n unique, one-time operational activity or effort w Examples n n n n constructing houses, factories, shopping malls, athletic stadiums or arenas developing military weapons systems, aircrafts, new ships launching satellite systems constructing oil pipelines developing and implementing new computer systems planning concert, football games, or basketball tournaments introducing new products into market Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -3

Project Elements w w w w Objective Scope Contract requirements Schedules Resources Personnel Control Project Elements w w w w Objective Scope Contract requirements Schedules Resources Personnel Control Risk and problem analysis Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -4

Project Management Process w w Project planning Project scheduling Project control Project team n Project Management Process w w Project planning Project scheduling Project control Project team n made up of individuals from various areas and departments within a company w Matrix organization n a team structure with members from functional areas, depending on skills required w Project Manager n most important member of project team Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -5

Project Scope w Scope statement n a document that provides an understanding, justification, and Project Scope w Scope statement n a document that provides an understanding, justification, and expected result of a project w Statement of work n written description of objectives of a project w Work breakdown structure n breaks down a project into components, subcomponents, activities, and tasks Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -6

Work Breakdown Structure for Computer Order Processing System Project Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Work Breakdown Structure for Computer Order Processing System Project Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -7

w Organizational Breakdown Structure n a chart that shows which organizational units are responsible w Organizational Breakdown Structure n a chart that shows which organizational units are responsible for work items w Responsibility Assignment Matrix n shows who is responsible for work in a project Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -8

Project Scheduling w Steps n n Define activities Sequence activities Estimate time Develop schedule Project Scheduling w Steps n n Define activities Sequence activities Estimate time Develop schedule Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. w Techniques n n Gantt chart CPM PERT Microsoft Project 9 -9

Gantt Chart w Graph or bar chart with a bar for each project activity Gantt Chart w Graph or bar chart with a bar for each project activity that shows passage of time w Provides visual display of project schedule w Slack n amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the project Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -10

Example of Gantt Chart 0 | 2 | Month 4 | 6 | 8 Example of Gantt Chart 0 | 2 | Month 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 Activity Design house and obtain financing Lay foundation Order and receive materials Build house Select paint Select carpet Finish work 1 3 Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Month 5 7 9 9 -11

Project Control w w Time management Cost management Quality management Performance management n Earned Project Control w w Time management Cost management Quality management Performance management n Earned Value Analysis l a standard procedure for numerically measuring a project’s progress, forecasting its completion date and cost and measuring schedule and budget variation w Communication w Enterprise project management Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -12

CPM/PERT w Critical Path Method (CPM) n n n Du. Pont & Remington-Rand (1956) CPM/PERT w Critical Path Method (CPM) n n n Du. Pont & Remington-Rand (1956) Deterministic task times Activity-on-node network construction w Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) n n n US Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton Multiple task time estimates Activity-on-arrow network construction Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -13

Project Network w Activity-on-node (AON) n nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence relationships Project Network w Activity-on-node (AON) n nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence relationships w Activity-on-arrow (AOA) n arrows represent activities and nodes are events for points in time w Event n Node 1 2 3 Branch completion or beginning of an activity in a project Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -14

AOA Project Network for a House Lay foundation 1 3 Design house and obtain AOA Project Network for a House Lay foundation 1 3 Design house and obtain financing 2 3 2 Dummy 0 1 Order and receive materials 4 Select paint Build house 6 3 1 1 Finish work 1 7 Select carpet 5 Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -15

Concurrent Activities Lay foundation 2 Lay foundation 3 Order material (a) Incorrect precedence relationship Concurrent Activities Lay foundation 2 Lay foundation 3 Order material (a) Incorrect precedence relationship Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2 3 Dummy 2 0 1 4 Order material (b) Correct precedence relationship 9 -16

AON Network for House Building Project Lay foundations Build house 4 3 2 2 AON Network for House Building Project Lay foundations Build house 4 3 2 2 Start Finish work 7 1 1 3 Design house and obtain financing 3 1 Order and receive materials Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 5 1 6 1 Select carpet Select paint 9 -17

Critical Path 4 3 2 2 Start 7 1 1 3 3 1 A: Critical Path 4 3 2 2 Start 7 1 1 3 3 1 A: B: C: D: 1 -2 -4 -7 3 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 9 months 1 -2 -5 -6 -7 3 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 8 months 1 -3 -4 -7 3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 months 1 -3 -5 -6 -7 3 + 1 + 1 = 7 months Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 6 1 5 1 w Critical path n n Longest path through a network Minimum project completion time 9 -18

Activity Start Times Start at 5 months 4 3 2 2 Start Finish at Activity Start Times Start at 5 months 4 3 2 2 Start Finish at 9 months 7 1 1 3 3 1 Start at 3 months Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 5 1 Finish 6 1 Start at 6 months 9 -19

Mode Configuration Activity number Earliest start Earliest finish 1 0 3 3 0 3 Mode Configuration Activity number Earliest start Earliest finish 1 0 3 3 0 3 Activity duration Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Latest finish Latest start 9 -20

Forward Pass w Start at the beginning of CPM/PERT network to determine the earliest Forward Pass w Start at the beginning of CPM/PERT network to determine the earliest activity times w Earliest Start Time (ES) n n earliest time an activity can start ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors w Earliest finish time (EF) n n earliest time an activity can finish earliest start time plus activity time EF= ES + t Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -21

Earliest Activity Start and Finish Times Lay foundations Build house 2 Start 3 5 Earliest Activity Start and Finish Times Lay foundations Build house 2 Start 3 5 4 2 1 0 5 8 3 3 7 1 Design house and obtain financing 8 9 1 3 3 6 4 1 Order and receive materials Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 6 7 Finish work 1 5 5 6 1 Select carpet Select pain 9 -22

Backward Pass w Determines latest activity times by starting at the end of CPM/PERT Backward Pass w Determines latest activity times by starting at the end of CPM/PERT network and working forward w Latest Start Time (LS) n Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time LS= LF - t w Latest finish time (LF) n n latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -23

Latest Activity Start and Finish Times Lay foundations Build house 2 3 5 2 Latest Activity Start and Finish Times Lay foundations Build house 2 3 5 2 Start 3 5 4 5 8 3 5 8 1 0 3 7 8 9 1 0 3 1 8 9 Design house and obtain financing 3 3 4 5 Order and receive materials Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 5 5 6 1 6 7 1 4 1 6 7 Finish work 8 Select carpet Select pain 9 -24

Activity Slack Activity LS ES LF EF Slack S *1 0 0 3 3 Activity Slack Activity LS ES LF EF Slack S *1 0 0 3 3 0 *2 3 3 5 5 0 3 4 3 5 4 1 *4 5 5 8 8 0 5 6 5 7 6 1 6 7 6 8 7 1 *7 8 8 9 9 0 * Critical Path Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -25

Probabilistic Time Estimates w Beta distribution n a probability distribution traditionally used in CPM/PERT Probabilistic Time Estimates w Beta distribution n a probability distribution traditionally used in CPM/PERT a + 4 m + b Mean (expected time): t= 6 Variance: where b-a = 6 2 2 a = optimistic estimate m = most likely time estimate b = pessimistic time estimate Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -26

P(time) Examples of Beta Distributions a m t b a t Time m b P(time) Examples of Beta Distributions a m t b a t Time m b P(time) Time a m=t b Time Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -27

Project Network with Probabilistic Time Estimates: Example Equipment installation Equipment testing and modification 1 Project Network with Probabilistic Time Estimates: Example Equipment installation Equipment testing and modification 1 4 6, 8, 10 2, 4, 12 System development Start 2 3, 6, 9 Position recruiting 3 1, 3, 5 Manual testing System training 8 3, 7, 11 5 2, 3, 4 1, 4, 7 Finish 11 9 Job Training 2, 4, 6 6 System testing 3, 4, 5 Final debugging 10 1, 10, 13 System changeover Orientation 7 2, 2, 2 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -28

Activity Time Estimates TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) ACTIVITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Activity Time Estimates TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) ACTIVITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 MEAN TIME VARIANCE a m b t б 2 6 3 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 8 6 3 4 2 7 4 4 10 10 9 5 12 4 5 2 11 6 7 13 8 6 3 5 3 4 2 7 4 4 9 0. 44 1. 00 0. 44 2. 78 0. 11 0. 00 1. 78 0. 44 1. 00 4. 00 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -29

Activity Early, Late Times, and Slack ACTIVITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Activity Early, Late Times, and Slack ACTIVITY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 t б ES EF LS LF S 8 6 3 5 3 4 2 7 4 4 9 0. 44 1. 00 0. 44 2. 78 0. 11 0. 00 1. 78 0. 44 1. 00 4. 00 0 8 6 3 3 9 9 13 16 8 6 3 13 9 7 5 16 13 17 25 1 0 2 16 6 5 14 9 12 21 16 9 6 5 21 9 9 16 16 16 25 25 1 0 2 8 0 2 11 0 3 8 0 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -30

Earliest, Latest, and Slack 1 0 8 1 Start 2 0 6 0 3 Earliest, Latest, and Slack 1 0 8 1 Start 2 0 6 0 3 2 8 9 4 8 5 16 21 3 5 10 13 17 8 9 7 9 6 6 Critical Path 13 5 6 3 6 6 3 4 5 16 7 3 Finish 16 9 9 1 0 9 9 13 4 12 16 11 16 25 9 7 3 5 2 14 16 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -31

Total project variance s 2 = б 22 + б 52 + б 82 Total project variance s 2 = б 22 + б 52 + б 82 + б 112 s = 1. 00 + 0. 11 + 1. 78 + 4. 00 = 6. 89 weeks Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -32

Probabilistic Network Analysis Determine probability that project is completed within specified time where Z= Probabilistic Network Analysis Determine probability that project is completed within specified time where Z= x- = tp = project mean time = project standard deviation x = proposed project time Z = number of standard deviations x is from mean Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -33

Normal Distribution Of Project Time Probability Z = tp Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Normal Distribution Of Project Time Probability Z = tp Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. x Time 9 -34

Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 30 weeks? P(x 30 weeks) = 6. 89 weeks 2 = 6. 89 = 2. 62 weeks = 25 x = 30 Z= x- 30 - 25 = 2. 62 = 1. 91 Time (weeks) From Table A. 1, (appendix A) a Z score of 1. 91 corresponds to a probability of 0. 4719. Thus P(30) = 0. 4719 + 0. 5000 = 0. 9719 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -35

Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 Southern Textile Example What is the probability that the project is completed within 22 weeks? x- 2 = 6. 89 weeks Z= P(x 22 weeks) = 6. 89 = 2. 62 weeks x = 22 = 25 22 - 25 = 2. 62 = -1. 14 Time (weeks) From Table A. 1 (appendix A) a Z score of -1. 14 corresponds to a probability of 0. 3729. Thus P(22) = 0. 5000 - 0. 3729 = 0. 1271 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -36

Project Crashing w Crashing n reducing project time by expending additional resources w Crash Project Crashing w Crashing n reducing project time by expending additional resources w Crash time n an amount of time an activity is reduced w Crash cost n cost of reducing activity time w Goal n reduce project duration at minimum cost Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -37

Project Crashing: Example 4 2 8 12 7 4 1 12 3 4 Copyright Project Crashing: Example 4 2 8 12 7 4 1 12 3 4 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 5 4 6 4 9 -38

Project Crashing: Example (cont. ) $7, 000 – $6, 000 – Crash cost $5, Project Crashing: Example (cont. ) $7, 000 – $6, 000 – Crash cost $5, 000 – Crashed activity Slope = crash cost per week $4, 000 – $3, 000 – $2, 000 – Normal activity Normal cost $1, 000 – – 0 Normal time Crash time | 2 | 4 | 6 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 Weeks 9 -39

Normal Activity and Crash Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CRASH TIME Normal Activity and Crash Data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CRASH TIME (WEEKS) NORMAL COST 12 8 4 12 4 4 4 7 5 3 9 1 1 3 $3, 000 2, 000 4, 000 500 500 15, 000 $5, 000 3, 500 7, 000 71, 000 1, 100 22, 000 $75, 000 ACTIVITY NORMAL TIME (WEEKS) TOTAL ALLOWABLE CRASH TIME (WEEKS) $110, 700 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CRASH COST 5 3 1 3 3 3 1 CRASH COST PER WEEK $400 500 3, 000 7, 000 200 7, 000 9 -40

$7000 $500 2 8 $700 12 7 4 1 12 $400 Project Duration: 36 $7000 $500 2 8 $700 12 7 4 1 12 $400 Project Duration: 36 weeks 4 3 4 6 4 5 4 $3000 $200 $7000 $500 4 2 8 TO… Project Duration: 31 weeks Additional Cost: $2000 FROM … $700 12 7 4 1 7 $400 3 4 $3000 Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 5 4 6 4 $200 9 -41

Time-Cost Relationship § Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases § Indirect costs increase Time-Cost Relationship § Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases § Indirect costs increase as project duration increases § Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than indirect costs Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -42

Time-Cost Tradeoff Minimum cost = optimal project time Total project cost Cost ($) Indirect Time-Cost Tradeoff Minimum cost = optimal project time Total project cost Cost ($) Indirect cost Direct cost Crashing Project duration Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Time 9 -43

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of this work beyond that permitted in section 117 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without express permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Request for further information should be addressed to the Permission Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. The purchaser may make back-up copies for his/her own use only and not for distribution or resale. The Publisher assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or damages caused by the use of these programs or from the use of the information herein. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 9 -44