Chapter 6 Population Growth and Economic Development Causes

Скачать презентацию Chapter 6 Population Growth and Economic Development Causes

ab0e70cc7c8d06f06be075e31d905989.ppt

Количество слайдов: 29

Population Pyramids • LDCs population pyramid is truly pyramid-shaped with 40% younger than 19 years and less than 5% over 65. Of the youth, 2 billion are 19 and younger and 400 million between 15 -19 • MDCs population structure is more like a cylinder with many middle-aged and elderly individuals Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8

Hidden Momentum of Population Growth • Family planning takes many years to achieve two-child family and eventually replacement fertility because today’s children are future parents • In Nigeria, If family planning began in 1990 • Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years) • Replacement fertility would eventually reach in 2150 (115 years) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10

The Demographic Transition • Stage I: High birthrates and death rates • Stage II: Continued high birthrates; declining death rates because of improved medicine • Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates, eventually stabilizing due to improved medicine and decline in the fertility rate Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 12

The Malthusian Trap • Population grows at a geometric ratio (e. g. , 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc. ) • Food supply increases at an arithmetic ratio (e. g. , 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc. ) • Hence, hunger, starvation, and death shall follow • Remedy is to keep population growth in check Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 15

The Malthusian Trap Income growth rate Growth rate (%) Growth 5 4 B 3 Population growth rate C Trap 2 1 A Growth 0 -1 Y 0 Y 1 Income per capita Y 2 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Y 3 Y 4 16

Criticism of The Malthusian Trap • Rapid income growth due to technological advancement • Greater food production due to landintensive technology and application of modern farm inputs • Economic growth faster than population growth, resulting in the rise of per capita income over time Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 17

Cross-National Evidence • Many LDCs have been able to lower population growth rate while increasing income per capita (e. g. , China, Sri Lanka, Chile, Singapore) • Still, there are countries with low or even negative rate of economic growth, but high rate of population growth (e. g. , Kenya. Congo, Philippines, Colombia, Venezuela) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 19

Microeconomic Theory of Fertility Demand for Children Equation Where Cd is the demand for surviving children Y is the level of household income Pc is the “net” price of children Px is price of all other goods tx is the tastes for goods relative to children Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 20

Microeconomic Theory of Fertility • In LDCs, the demand for children is high because the cost of raising children is low and they add to the family’s workforce to generate income – In LDCs, children are “investment goods” – In MDCs, children are “consumer goods” Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 22

Policies of Fertility Reduction • Improve female education, and economic and social role and status • Provide of female non-agricultural wage employment • Rise in family income Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 23

Policies of Fertility Reduction • Reduction in infant mortality, hence demand for replacement children • Provide old-age income security • Expand schooling opportunities • Establish family planning programs Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 24

Consequences of High Fertility Population growth isn’t a real problem. The problems are • Poverty and lack of development • World resource depletion and environmental destruction • Uneven distribution of population • Subordination of women Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 25

Consequences of High Fertility • Slow or negative growth of per capita income • Increased poverty and inequality • Inadequate educational and health-care services • Food shortage and hunger • Environmental decay and loss of natural resources • International migration Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 26

Some Policy Approaches What can LDCs do to reduce fertility? • Improve economic and social equality • Invest in female education and job creation • Educate people about negative consequences of high fertility rate and provide family planning programs • Provide incentives to reduce rural-urban migration and brain drain Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 27

Some Policy Approaches How can MDCs help LDCs reduce fertility? • Improve international economic relations • Research into technology of fertility control • Financial assistance for family planning programs Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 29