Chapter 38 The Balance of Payments, Exchange Rates, and Trade Deficits Mc. Graw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2009 by The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Chapter Objectives • How currencies are exchanged • Balance sheet for recording international payments • How exchange rates are determined • Flexible vs. fixed exchange rates • Causes and consequences of trade deficits 38 -2
International Transactions • International trade – Buy/sell current goods or services – Imports and exports • International asset transactions – Buy/sell real or financial assets – Buy stock – Sell your house to a foreigner • Requires currency exchange 38 -3
Balance of Payments • Sum of international financial transactions • Current account – Balance on goods and services – Net investment income - interest – Net transfers – Balance on current account 38 -4
Balance of Payments • Capital and financial account – Capital account – Debt forgiveness – Financial account - Assets • Balance of payments accounts sum to zero • Current account deficits generate asset transfers to foreigners • Official reserves 38 -6
1945 - 2009
U. S. Trade Balances Goods and Services, Select Nations, 2007 Deficit Surplus +10. 0 Australia Belgium +9. 8 Canada -67. 0 China -256. 6 Germany -45. 3 Japan -85. 0 Mexico -77. 3 +14. 3 Netherlands -250 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 10 20 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 38 -9
Flexible Exchange Rates • • Demand for pounds Supply of pounds Market equilibrium Increase in dollar price of pounds – Dollar depreciates – Pound appreciates • Decrease in dollar price of pounds – Dollar appreciates – Pound depreciates 38 -10
Flexible Exchange Rates The Market for Foreign Currency (Pounds) Dollar Price of 1 Pound P $3 $2 $1 Dollar Depreciates (Pound Appreciates) Exchange Rate: $2 = £ 1 S 1 Dollar Appreciates (Pound Depreciates) D 1 0 Q 1 Q Quantity of Pounds 38 -11
Flexible Exchange Rates • Determinants of exchange rates • Factors that shift demand/supply – Changes in tastes – Relative income changes – Relative price-level changes • Purchasing-power-parity theory – Relative interest rates – Relative expected returns on assets – Speculation 38 -12
Change in Tastes Vs.
Change in Relative Income
Change in Relative Price Level
Change in Relative Interest Rates Change in Relative Expected Returns on Investment
Currency Speculation Selffulfilling prophecy
Flexible Exchange Rates The Market for Foreign Currency (Pounds) Dollar Price of 1 Pound P S 1 c $3 $2 $1 a x Exchange Rate: $3 = £ 1 Balance Of Payments Deficit b D 2 Exchange Rate: $2 = £ 1 D 1 0 Q 1 Q 2 Q Quantity of Pounds 38 -18
Flexible Exchange Rates • Eliminate balance of payments deficit or surplus • Disadvantages of flexible exchange rates – Volatility – Uncertainty and diminished trade – Terms-of-trade changes – Instability • Depreciation of dollar = more exports = higher prices (inflation) • Appreciation of dollar = more imports/less exports = 38 -19 more unemployment
Fixed Exchange Rates • Government intervention – Alter Supply/Demand • Use of reserves (show on graph) – Selling pounds = transfer of assets • Trade policies – tariffs, subsidies • Exchange controls and rationing – Distorted trade lessens advantages – Favoritism to certain importers – Restricted choice for consumers – Black markets – LEVIS! 38 -20
Macroeconomic Adjustments • Monetary/Fiscal Policy – Trade deficit with Britain – Reduce demand for British Pounds by undertaking contractionary policy, reducing American incomes and thus imports of British goods – The cost? –Recession.
Exchange Rate Systems • Gold standard 1879 -1934 – Fixed exchange rate system • Bretton Woods 1944 -1971 – Fixed exchange rate system indirectly tied to gold – International Monetary Fund • Managed float 1971 -present 38 -22
Managed Float • Dependence on foreign exchange markets • Occasional intervention (IMF) – Tsunami • In support of managed float – Track Record • Concerns with managed float – Volatility – Manipulation 38 -23
U. S. Trade Deficit • Large and persistent • Causes of trade deficits – High U. S. growth (relatively) – China – Price oil – Low U. S. saving rate • Implications of trade deficits – Increased current consumption – Increased indebtedness 38 -24
Speculation in Currency Markets • Positive or negative influence? • Contributes to currency market fluctuations • Self-fulfilling expectations • Smoothing short-term fluctuations • Absorbing risk • Futures market at work • Positive role played overall 38 -25
Key Terms • balance of payments • current account • balance on goods and services • trade deficit • trade surplus • balance on current account • capital and financial account • balance on capital and financial • balance-of-payments deficits and surpluses • official reserves • flexible- or floatingexchange-rate system • fixed-exchange-rate system • purchasing-powerparity theory • currency interventions • managed floating exchange rate 38 -26
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