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Chapter 10: National Security PS 130 World Politics Michael R. Baysdell Saginaw Valley State Chapter 10: National Security PS 130 World Politics Michael R. Baysdell Saginaw Valley State University

Defense: United States 19% of United States Federal Budget v 1. 4 Million active Defense: United States 19% of United States Federal Budget v 1. 4 Million active duty in 5 services v 1. 2 Million reserve v Joint Chiefs of Staff report to President v Volunteer Military with registration v Between 1700 and 2200 nuclear warheads v NATO Member v Committed by Treaty to also defend Japan, South Korea, Australia, OAS v

Mandatory and Discretionary Spending Federal Spending v v Mandatory spending refers to money that Mandatory and Discretionary Spending Federal Spending v v Mandatory spending refers to money that lawmakers are required by law to spend on certain programs or to use for interest payments on the national debt. Includes Social Security, Income Security, Medicare, Debt Interest, Veterans benefits 2% 15% 1% 2. 5% 16% 3% 23% 8% 12% 14% Defense Health Medicare Discretionary spending is Science, space and technology Income security spending about which Energy, natural Social Security government planners can resources, &environment Veteran’s benefits make choices. VERY small!! Agriculture Administration of Justice (Education, Employment, Other Transportation Social Services, Net interest Education Transportation, Justice, Note: Because of rounding, totals may be less or greater than 100%. Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States Environment 1% 1% 0. 7% 2%

History of Defense Dep’t 1789: Department of the Army v 1789: Department of the History of Defense Dep’t 1789: Department of the Army v 1789: Department of the Navy v Merged 1947, into Department of Defense under 1 civilian secretary v 2002: North. Com created to partially overrule Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 v 2003: Department of Homeland Security v 2006: National Missile Defense activated v

Recent U. S. Military Deployments v US has used force in history over 200 Recent U. S. Military Deployments v US has used force in history over 200 times, from small covert actions to World War II v 1983: Grenada 1986: Libya (1981/86 shootdowns; 86 attack after nightclub bombing, led to Pan Am 103) 1989: Panama 1990 91: Persian Gulf War 1993: Somalia 1995: Bosnia 1999: Kosovo 2001: Afghanistan 2003: Iraq 2005: Liberia v v v v v

Current Issues in Defense v Preemption strategy v Iraq v Draft—highly unlikely; not favored Current Issues in Defense v Preemption strategy v Iraq v Draft—highly unlikely; not favored by Pentagon v New threat: Terrorism

U. S. Membership in Organizations v United Nations, 1945 (World Bank, IMF WHO, all U. S. Membership in Organizations v United Nations, 1945 (World Bank, IMF WHO, all UN organizations exc. ICC) v Rio Treaty leads to OAS, 1947 v NATO, 1949 v ANZUS, 1951 (New Zealand inactive) v SEATO now dead v NAFTA w/Canada and Mexico

War: The Human Record War is as ancient as humanity – Increase in frequency: War: The Human Record War is as ancient as humanity – Increase in frequency: almost 1, 000 wars during the last millennium – 30% of all wars have occurred in last 200 years v Severity also on the rise – 75% of all war deaths have occurred since 1900 – Continued threat of nuclear war v Lower percentage of countries involved in international conflict– higher percentage of countries involved in civil conflicts v Concept of a “just war” v 8

“Just Wars”—St. Augustine v Just wars are usually defined as those which avenge injuries, “Just Wars”—St. Augustine v Just wars are usually defined as those which avenge injuries, when the nation or city against which warlike action is to be directed has neglected either to punish wrongs committed by its own citizens or to restore what has been unjustly taken by it. v Further, that kind of war is undoubtedly just which God Himself ordains. “ v Analysis of some recent conflicts

What Causes War? v v v v Dissatisfied with status quo (Hitler and Versailles What Causes War? v v v v Dissatisfied with status quo (Hitler and Versailles Treaty) Nationalism/Jingoism Self defense Collective self defense/Help a helpless 3 rd party Perception of leaders (Galtieri, Hussein) Preemptory strikes more effective, self defense implications (Bush 43 and Iraq) Religion Conquest (outlawed by UN Charter) Parity—both sides are evenly matched and think it would be possible to beat the other Preponderance—one side really believes it can clean the other side’s clock Xenophobia—fear of foreigners (unites citizens) No single root cause of war Each level of analysis sheds some light on the question of why we fight – System level – State level – Individual level

What Promotes Peace? Interdependence—if you really need something from the other state, you can’t What Promotes Peace? Interdependence—if you really need something from the other state, you can’t risk war v Alliances—collective security mechanisms make aggressors less likely to attack v Communication (Prisoner’s Dilemma hampers) v

Prisoner’s dilemma v v v v Two prisoners are accused of a crime. If Prisoner’s dilemma v v v v Two prisoners are accused of a crime. If one confesses and the other does not, the one who confesses will be released immediately and the other will spend 20 years in prison. If neither confesses, each will be released. If both confess, they will each be jailed 5 years. They cannot communicate with one another. Given that neither prisoner knows whether the other has confessed, it is in the self interest of each to confess himself. Paradoxically, when each prisoner pursues his self interest, both end up worse off than they would have been had they acted otherwise Demonstrates how many conflicts are caused by system level factors, although all 3 levels of analysis offer insight into why war happens

System-Level Causes of War v Distribution of power v Anarchical nature of the system System-Level Causes of War v Distribution of power v Anarchical nature of the system v Economic factors v Biosphere stress – Number of poles and their relative power – Self help system creates a tension filled cycle of escalating arms > tensions > arms > tensions – Global patterns of production and use of natural resources – Increasing gap between rich and poor – Limited resources, such as water or oil 13

State-Level Causes of War v Militarism – Belief that the nature of modern politics State-Level Causes of War v Militarism – Belief that the nature of modern politics has deep military roots v Externalization of internal conflict – Diversionary war: When governments try to consolidate their power by fomenting tensions with other countries v Type of country – Nature of political structure (authoritarian versus democratic) and economic resources v Political Culture – Influence of the historical experiences and religious beliefs that construct the 14 national identity

Individual-Level Causes of War v Human Characteristics – Instinctual human behaviors, such as territoriality Individual-Level Causes of War v Human Characteristics – Instinctual human behaviors, such as territoriality – Human aggression stemming from stress, anxiety, or frustration v Individual Leaders – Importance of individual personalities: u Risk taker or cautious conservative u Influence of individual experiences and emotions 15

Lessons from Byzantium v v v v Edward Luttwak, who says he has studied Lessons from Byzantium v v v v Edward Luttwak, who says he has studied Byzantine documents and other writings for two decades, advises Americans to learn 7 lessons from Byzantium. They are: 1. Avoid war by every possible means. . . but always act as if war might start at anytime. . Train intensively and be ready for battle at all times. 2. Gather intelligence on the enemy and his mentality, and monitor his actions continuously. 3. Campaign vigorously, both offensively and defensively, but avoid battles, especially large scale battles. 4. Replace the battle of attrition and occupation of countries with maneuver warfare lightning strikes and offensive raids to disrupt enemies. 5. Strive to end wars successfully by recruiting allies to change the balance of power. Diplomacy is even more important during war than peace. 6. Subversion is the cheapest path to victory. So cheap, in fact, as compared with the risks and costs of battle that it must always be attempted. . Remember: Even religious fanatics can be bribed. 7. When diplomacy and subversion are not enough and fighting is unavoidable, use methods and tactics that exploit enemy weaknesses, avoid consuming combat forces, and patiently whittle down the enemy's strength. "

Effectiveness of Force: Evaluating Its Success by Utilitarian Standards v Measurement: – Cost/benefit analysis Effectiveness of Force: Evaluating Its Success by Utilitarian Standards v Measurement: – Cost/benefit analysis u What are the trade offs? u No objective way to measure the costs of loss of human life, human anguish, and economic destruction – Goal attainment u Were with? the goals rational and legitimate to begin 17

Conditions for the Successful Use of Force v v v v v Clearly defined, Conditions for the Successful Use of Force v v v v v Clearly defined, long standing, and previously demonstrated commitment Strong commitments, publicly announced by leaders Military force used to counter other military force, not to control political events Force used early and decisively instead of through extended threatening and slow escalation Clearly established goals Secure domestic support for actions and goals Develop a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement Use overwhelming force, get in and get out Powell Doctrine (named after U. S. General Colin Powell during the run up to the Persian Gulf War in 1990 91) Powell Doctrine asserted that all of these above conditions must be present to achieve military and political success when using armed forces Opponents of the Iraq War claim Bush administration failed to follow several principles of Powell Doctrine in launching war against Iraq in 2003 and the military occupation of the country through 2007. 18

The Changing Nature of War v v v v Technology has increased killing power The Changing Nature of War v v v v Technology has increased killing power Civil War Minie Ball and Ironclads changed war worldwide Nationalism has increased numbers and intensity of wars Technology and nationalism have expanded scope of war More expensive More diverse population now participates, suffers More civilian casualties Strategy has changed – Power to defeat is the traditional goal – Power to hurt increasingly important 19

Classifying Warfare v Offensive versus defensive: – Not always this simple Mutual responsibility warfare Classifying Warfare v Offensive versus defensive: – Not always this simple Mutual responsibility warfare (World War I mobilization) u Description of World War I situation u Where does preemptive war fit? u Legitimacy of Bush Doctrine justifying preemptive war in Iraq in 2003 hotly debated u v Four categories of international conflict: – – Terrorism Unconventional force Conventional force Weapons of mass destruction 20

Terrorism v v No widely accepted definition of terrorism Terrorism is best understood as: Terrorism v v No widely accepted definition of terrorism Terrorism is best understood as: – a form of political violence – carried out by individuals, by NGOs, or by relatively small groups of covert government agents – specifically targeting civilians – using clandestine attack methods – having the power to harm people and create fear by targeting civilians an damaging facilities, and systems involved in transportation, trade, and energy production. – as an effort to influence domestic and global politics and the foreign policies of targeted nation 21

Important Objections to This Understanding of Terrorism v Can noble ends justify terrorist means? Important Objections to This Understanding of Terrorism v Can noble ends justify terrorist means? – In other words, is one man’s terrorist another man’s freedom fighter? – Do the ends ever justify the means? – How important is the intent? v Can actions taken by uniformed military force be classified as terrorism? – When are military actions not acceptable, under any circumstances? 22

Sources of Terrorism State terrorism: • • Transnational terrorism: Carried out directly by an Sources of Terrorism State terrorism: • • Transnational terrorism: Carried out directly by an established government; clandestine operators National governments and leaders are held responsible • • 23 Carried out by international nongovernmental groups al Qaeda most famous example

Terrorist Weapons and Tactics v Conventional weapons of terrorism: – Many terrorist attacks still Terrorist Weapons and Tactics v Conventional weapons of terrorism: – Many terrorist attacks still use guns and bombs – 9/11 tactics fit this category – Suicide car , truck, and body carrying bombs and explosives targeting public transportation systems and "soft targets" such as discotheques v Radiological terrorism: – The use of nuclear weapons is unlikely, but the use of a “dirty bomb” or destroying a nuclear power plant are much more realistic v Chemical and biological terrorism: – Need to be concerned: Chemical weapons have been used before (Tokyo subway) – Need to remain calm: Increased awareness, vigilance, and security 24 measures with this form of terrorism in recent years

Causes of Terrorism v System level analysis: – Product of the global unequal distribution Causes of Terrorism v System level analysis: – Product of the global unequal distribution of wealth v State level analysis: – Result of national alliances that breed tension v Individual level of analysis: – Driven by human nature, by psychology, and by an individual’s personal experiences 25

Causes of Terrorism, continued Terrorism continues because it is effective and is often seen Causes of Terrorism, continued Terrorism continues because it is effective and is often seen as the only option v Important role of globalization and spreading technology–with both weapons and communications v Seen as a low risk, cost effective, and potentially high yield means of winning useful tactical objectives, such as massive publicity, freeing of political prisoners, and so on v 26

Combating Terrorism v Current emphasis is on diplomacy, intelligence gathering, national law enforcement, and Combating Terrorism v Current emphasis is on diplomacy, intelligence gathering, national law enforcement, and military actions v Not much focus on addressing the root causes of terrorism, such as poverty alleviation and economic development – Major criticism of U. S. “war on terror” 27

Unconventional Force v v Arms transfers: Destination and sources – Mostly to LDCs/Mostly from Unconventional Force v v Arms transfers: Destination and sources – Mostly to LDCs/Mostly from EDCs – Can help LDCs meet defense needs and boost the economy of EDCs Arms transfers: Drawbacks – Cost – Increased risk of regional violence and warfare, sparking a regional arms race among nations – Maintaining authoritarian governments in power, – Potential to face one’s own weapons 28

Unconventional Force: Special Operations Include overtly and covertly sending one’s special operation forces (SOFs), Unconventional Force: Special Operations Include overtly and covertly sending one’s special operation forces (SOFs), intelligence operatives, or paramilitary agents v Small unit activities, such as commando operations and intelligence gathering v Increased use of SOFs by U. S. government since 9/11 including in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran v Rumsfeld proposed loose rule sets for these “trigger pullers”—probably a smart call v Risks: possible escalation (Vietnam, Afghanistan) v 29

Conventional Force v Overt and coercive military intervention v Norm throughout most of history Conventional Force v Overt and coercive military intervention v Norm throughout most of history v Involves uniformed military personnel, usually in large numbers 30

Conventional Force: Goals and Conduct v War is part of diplomacy, not a substitute Conventional Force: Goals and Conduct v War is part of diplomacy, not a substitute for it v War should be governed by political, not military, considerations v War should be fought with clear political goals v Avoid unchecked escalation 31

The Dangers of Escalation: Standards to Avoid Unchecked Escalation v Keep lines of communication The Dangers of Escalation: Standards to Avoid Unchecked Escalation v Keep lines of communication open v Limit goals v Restrict geographic scope v Observe target restrictions v Limit weapons used 32

Warfare with “Weapons of Mass Destruction” Term invented after 1937 German Condor Legion bombing Warfare with “Weapons of Mass Destruction” Term invented after 1937 German Condor Legion bombing of Guernica v Includes nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons v 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) bans all production, possession, and uses of biological weapons, but they still pose a serious threat v Chemical weapons are the most prevalent because they are relatively easy and inexpensive to produce v 33

Nuclear Weapons v Although the number of nuclear weapons has declined since the end Nuclear Weapons v Although the number of nuclear weapons has declined since the end of the Cold War, a huge number of powerful nuclear weapons exist in numerous states v Russia and the United States remain the nuclear Goliaths v China, France, Great Britain, India, and Pakistan all openly possess nuclear weapons v Iran, North Korea, and Israel have undeclared nuclear weapons v Debate over ease of construction/Iranian capability* 34

The Role of Nuclear Weapons v Backdrop of power and influence v Deterrence v The Role of Nuclear Weapons v Backdrop of power and influence v Deterrence v Actual use–What are some possible paths? – Irrational leader – Calculated attack – Last gasp nuclear war – Inadvertent nuclear war – Escalation – Terrorist group obtains a nuclear device 35

Nuclear Deterrence, Nonproliferation and Strategy v Three main issues: – How to minimize the Nuclear Deterrence, Nonproliferation and Strategy v Three main issues: – How to minimize the chance of nuclear war? – How to maximize the chance of survival if nuclear exchange does occur? – How to persuade nuclear nations that are not signatories or not in compliance with the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to secure their nuclear materials and technologies from the grasp of terrorist organizations? 36

Deterrence v Persuading the enemy that attacking you is not worth the cost – Deterrence v Persuading the enemy that attacking you is not worth the cost – Capability and credibility are critical – Mutual assured destruction (MAD) u. Deterrence through punishment – Nuclear Utilization Theory (NUT) u. Deterrence through damage denial or limitation 37

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v v v Economic and humanitarian assistance to non compliant nuclear Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v v v Economic and humanitarian assistance to non compliant nuclear nations and "rogue states" in exchange for these nations agreeing to dismantle their nuclear weapons programs and submit to international inspections of facilities by IAEA Provision of technical assistance to non compliant or "rogue" nuclear nations to assist in dismantling and securing of nuclear weapons, material, and technology Diplomatic agreements to provide peaceful nuclear technology to these rogue nuclear nations in exchange for their agreement to halt and dismantle nuclear weapons programs 38

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v v Imposition of economic sanctions against Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v v Imposition of economic sanctions against "rogue nuclear nations" that refuse to comply with the non proliferation provisions of the NPT Removal of economic sanctions against nations that agree to give up their nuclear weapons programs Enhanced on site inspections of nuclear weapons facilities by the IAEA Threats of possible military strikes against nuclear facilities of "rogue states" 39

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v v v All of the previously mentioned strategies in play Nuclear Non-Proliferation Strategies v v v All of the previously mentioned strategies in play as the U. S. , EU, IAEA, and Russia negotiate with Iran over its nuclear weapons program All of the previously mentioned strategies under consideration or implemented as U. S. , China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan negotiate with North Korea over the fate of its nuclear weapons program Combination of international diplomatic, economic, technological incentives and sanctions convinced Libya to abandon its nuclear weapons program in 2003 40

Nuclear Strategy v The first use option v Missile defense systems—Israel, U. S. 41 Nuclear Strategy v The first use option v Missile defense systems—Israel, U. S. 41

Chapter Objectives: Checklist After reading this chapter, students should be able to: v v Chapter Objectives: Checklist After reading this chapter, students should be able to: v v v v v 1. Identify reasons for studying war and summarize the hu man record of war, including the incidence, death toll, frequency, and severity. 2. Discuss the causes of war by applying the three levels of analysis: system, state, and individual. 3. Discuss how the nature of war has changed as a result of nationalism, technology, and changes in strategies. 4. Be able to identify the different types of war. 5. Discuss the nature, limits, sources, and record of terrorism, as well as terrorist weapons and tactics, causes of terrorism, and combating terrorism. 6. Understand unconventional warfare, including the benefits and drawbacks of arms transfers and special operations. 7. Define and describe the goals and conduct of war, as well as ways to avoid unchecked escalation. 8. Analyze the role of biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons in warfare. 9. Discuss how a nuclear war may start. 10. Understand nuclear deterrence and nuclear strategy. 42