Centrifugal and centripetal forces among regional actors PA

Centrifugal and centripetal forces among regional actors: PA, Hamas, Jordan and Israel Martin Beck Amman, Jordan

Basic Assumptions • 1. The Oslo approach of bilateral negotiations as set up by the Oslo Accords failed • 2. The idea of a two-state settlement, however, is alive • 3. Alternatives to the two-state settlement are not acceptable or not viable

Two-State Settlement from a normative perspective: Reservations? Actor Israel PA Hamas Jordan 2 States some no strong no 1 State very strong some very strong Option Occupation some

Two-State Settlement from an empirical/realistic angle: Reservations? Actor Israel PA Hamas Jordan 2 States strong no some 1 State very strong some strong Option Occupation some

Implications regarding the positions of the actors • Israel is the actor with the least clear idea of an option beyond occupation • Yet, also a number of Arab actors have some reservations towards the two-state settlement • Still, the two-state settlement is the only viable alternative to occupation

Hypotheses regarding the chances of a two-states settlement • The regional actors are incapable of realising the two-state settlement • Only if the international community is strongly committed to the two-state settlement, will there be a chance for realising it • It would be necessary that this commitment includes the readiness to deal with Israeli resistance and to effectively contain illegitimate violence committed by any party

PA, Hamas, Jordan: The complexity of Intra-Arab Relations • 1. PA/PLO and Hamas - Prior Interests: Preserving their respective governments - Incentive for re-unification depends on a concrete perspective for a Palestinian state - Secondary interests: Ending the occupation - Probability for achieving this aim depends on the engagement of the international community and Hamas‘ readiness to recognize Israel

PA, Hamas, Jordan: The complexity of Intra-Arab Relations • 2. Jordan towards PA (and Hamas) - Prior Interest: Stable relations with Israel - Ambivalent Position: To get involved or not to get involved in West Bank affairs? - Secondary interest: Stable relations with the PA - Ambivalent Position: PA should be strong—but not too strong

Conclusive Hypotheses • All regional actors (Israel, PA, Hamas, and Jordan) have at least some incentives to maintain the status quo • The Arab actors lack sufficient capabilities to change the status quo • The less intense interference from the outside, the higher the likelihood of prolonged occupation • Since the Oslo Approach of bilateral negotiations failed, intense interference from the outside can only be effective if a Palestinian state is recognized • Due to expected Israeli resistance, the international community would also have to be ready to empower the Palestinian state to effectively govern its territory.