CEDM-Supported Research on Electric Vehicle Life Cycle Costs

CEDM-Supported Research on Electric Vehicle Life Cycle Costs and Benefits Jeremy J. Michalek and Costa Samaras

CMU Vehicle Electrification Group Associate Professor Jeremy Michalek EPP and Mechanical Eng. Vehicle design and life cycle implications Grace Heckmann Mechanical Engineering Market demand for alternative vehicles Assistant Professor Jay Whitacre EPP and Material Science and Eng. Battery technology John Helveston Engineering & Public Policy Electrified vehicles in China Professor Chris Hendrickson Civil & Environmental Eng. Transportation and life cycle assessment Orkun Karabasoglu Mechanical Engineering Life cycle implications of driving cycles Assistant Professor Shawn Litster Mechanical Eng. Fuel cells Scott Peterson Engineering & Public Policy Life cycle emissions, battery life, vehicle to grid Professor Francis Mc. Michael EPP and Civil & Environmental Eng. Battery technology, life cycle assessment Apurba Sakti Engineering & Public Policy Battery design and cost modeling Associate Professor Illah Nourbakhsh Robotics Institute Electric vehicle conversions Elizabeth Traut Mechanical Engineering Plug-in vehicle design and charging infrastructure Gregg Podnar Robotics Institute Electric vehicle conversions Tugce Yuksel Mechanical Engineering Battery degradation and thermal management Dr. Constantine Samaras RAND Corporation (EPP Alum) Policy assessment Allison Weis Engineering & Public Policy Plug-in vehicles for wind power integration CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 2 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

CEDM Activities and Outputs 1. Peer-Reviewed CEDM-supported research 2. Decision support to policymakers 3. Dissemination 4. Current activities CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 3 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

CEDM Activities and Outputs 1. Peer-Reviewed CEDM-supported research 1. Michalek, J. J. , Chester, M. , Jaramillo, P. , Samaras, C. , Shiau, C-S. , N. , Lave, L. B. 2011. Valuation of Plug-in Vehicle Life Cycle Air Emissions and Oil Displacement Benefits. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences of the United States of America. 108(40) 16554 -16558. 2. Mashayekh, Y. , Jaramillo, P. , Samaras, C. , Hendrickson, C. T. , Blackhurst, M. , Mac. Lean, H. L. , Matthews, H. S. , 2012. Potentials for Sustainable Transportation in Cities to Alleviate Climate Change Impacts. Environmental Science and Technology. 46(5) 2529 -2537. 2. Decision Support to Policymakers 3. Dissemination 4. Current activities CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 4 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Paper #1: Plug-in Vehicle Benefits Adding more batteries (all else being equal) means § Longer distance traveled on electricity before needing gasoline § More expensive § Heavier (less efficient) § More manufacturing emissions and resource consumption Vehicle Battery Toyota PHEV Prius PHEV 12 4 k. Wh GM Volt PHEV 40 16 k. Wh Nissan Leaf BEV 73 24 k. Wh Ford Focus Electric CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 Range BEV 76 23 k. Wh 5 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Value of Plug-in Vehicle Benefits Estimated value of life cycle air emissions externality costs (health damages, etc. ) and oil premium costs Benefit << $7500 fed tax credit Damage reduction potential is small compared to cost Trend does not match policy Plug-in vehicles must be cheap to be a good value Need R&D to reduce cost of batteries CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 6 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Take Away In the near term, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more benefits per dollar spent § Also more robust to uncertainty in cost and emissions § If we achieve cheap batteries, expensive gasoline, clean electricity, and long battery life, large battery packs may eventually be best CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 7 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Paper #2: Local Policy What options do local policymakers have for reducing GHGs from transportation? § Use alternative fuels § Reduce demand § Change zoning Paper surveyed and summarized potentials around these areas Found synergies among policies that are often analyzed independently CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 8 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Potential Life Cycle GHGs from Vehicles CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 9 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Dissemination Policy results presented on Capitol Hill (Michalek and Samaras) Secretary of Energy’s National Petroleum Council Study of Future Transportation Fuels (input: Michalek, Whitacre, and Samaras) § Congressional Budget Office § Congressional Research Service Policy brief to appear in Issues in Science and Technology (June) (Michalek, Chester and Samaras) § Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee § Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee National Research Council committee service on U. S. Drive (Samaras) § Several offices in the House of Representatives CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 10 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Dissemination Invited Talks § Cambridge University § Ford Motor Company § Argonne National Laboratory Media § Washington Post § Bloomberg Businessweek § Greenwire CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 11 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Current Activities Plug-in vehicle benefits vary regionally, e. g. : Difference in GHG benefits of EVs under highway vs. NYC driving conditions § Under highway conditions, plug-in vehicles cost more and have few environmental benefits. § But under city conditions, plug-in vehicles could cut emissions in half while saving costs 20% § Regional factors: driving conditions, travel patterns, terrain, temperature, speed, acceleration, stop frequency, fuel prices, fleet mix, grid mix, charging infrastructure, air quality, etc. CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 12 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Current Activities Vehicle design and controller optimization Assessing investment in charging infrastructure EVs to help integrate renewable energy Battery design and cost Battery degradation and thermal management Consumer perception and adoption CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 13 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Current Activities Preliminary research ideas for local decisionmakers: § Would replacement of streetlights with LED streetlights in EV adopting neighborhoods blunt some of the additional anticipated nighttime load by EVs in those neighborhood transformers? § Under various national transition scenarios to EVs, how much could residential energy efficiency improvements offset this additional load? CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 14 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Acknowledgements Carnegie Mellon § Climate Decision Making Center § Green Design Institute § Vehicle Electrification Group § Design Decisions Lab Support § CMU Climate Decision Making Center, NSF SES Grant #0345798 § NSF CAREER Grant #0747911 § NSF MUSES Grant #0628084 § Ford Motor Company § Toyota Motor Corp § Teresa Heinz Scholars for Environmental Research Program § Steinbrenner Institute CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 15 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Questions & Discussion jmichalek@cmu. edu csamaras@rand. org

Reference Slides

Vehicle Electrification CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 18 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

How Much Can Electrification Help? Offset gasoline use We quantify: 1. Externality human health damages from life cycle air emissions § Reduces oil dependency Change emissions profile 2. U. S. oil premium costs from gasoline consumption § Fewer emissions associated with gasoline production and combustion § More emissions associated with battery and electricity production CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 19 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Oil dependency Oil Supply Disruption Military spending: § Externalities estimated at $0. 11/gal (Brown and Huntington) § $75 -$90 billion in 2009 (RAND) : $0. 24 -$0. 28/gal § But… § Not enough to change trends § Spending is nonlinear: Marginal reductions may have near-zero effect on military spending Market Power § Less than half of each bbl oil produced is used to make gasoline – large reductions require coordination § US Monopsony effect: $0. 22/gal (Leiby) CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 20 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Base Case Life Cycle Emissions & Oil CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 21 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Air Emissions & Oil Premium Costs Damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles § HEV & PHEV 20 reduce damages vs. conventional vehicle § PHEV 60 & BEV may increase or decrease damages CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 22 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Life Cycle Costs Base Case: Large battery packs are more costly over life. Optimistic: Plug-in vehicles have potential to offer lower damages at lower cost if battery prices and grid emissions drop; Gasoline prices and battery life increase Pessimistic: Plug-in vehicles could cost much more & cause more damage CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 23 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Sensitivity Analysis Life cycle air emissions externalities and oil premium CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 24 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras

Sensitivity Analysis Life cycle costs CEDM Meeting| 21 May 2012 25 Jeremy Michalek & Constantine Samaras