CBS support for DRR Activities First Technical Workshop

CBS support for DRR Activities First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to support Risk Assessment, 10 -14 June 2013 Paul Davies (UK)

Role of WMO Need Data Analysis Action

WMO Technical Commissions Basic Systems (CBS) Instruments and methods of observation (CIMO) Aeronautical Meteorology (CAe. M) Hydrology (CHy) Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) Climatology (CCl) Oceanography & Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) Agricultural Meteorology (CAg. M)

CBS contribution to DRR • CBS designs, implements and operates the basic meteorological infrastructure, systems and services that support all WMO Programmes – OPAG IOS, sustained observational (in situ, space) base – OPAG GDPFS, core and specialised NWP systems – OPAG PWS, enhanced delivery and communication to public – OPAG ISS, distribution of data, products, warnings etc Essential ‘backbone’ that support NMHSs • All are essential for the delivery of DRR activities – From planning through to outreach • Some CBS activities are specifically focused on assisting NMHSs with concrete DRR activities

CBS RECOGNISES…. . • • The importance of improved access to multi hazard, multi disciplinary, multi agency data for a range of purposes, including hazard forecasting and warning, water resources assessment and impacts of climate variability and change; The need to adopt standard procedures in the operations of multi hazard Services; The growing need for adoption of standards with respect to data operations and management with the primary aims of improving the interoperability of data and information and increasing the availability of and access to data and information. That a common approach to defining requirements would facilitate improved dialogue between scientists and users.

Commission for Basic Systems President Coordinator DRR OPAG IOS OPAG DPFS Vice President Coordinator GEOSS OPAG PWS OPAG ISS IPET-WIFI EG-OFPS ET-SPII ET-CTS IPET-OSDE EG-OPSLS ET-DPM ET-WISC ET-SBO EG-ERA ET-COPE IPET-DRMM ET-SAT ET-SUP ET-ABO SG-RFC ICT-SW R-SEIS R-MAR IPET-MDRD

OPAG IOS - Collect Observations

OPAG DPFS - Combine with knowledge Information + Knowledge = Analyses and Forecasts 8

OPAG PWS & ISS - Disseminate products & services Observations User needs Products Forecasts Interpretation Services

OPPORTUNITIES TO DO MORE • • • Rolling review of observational requirements taking into consideration DRR needs. For example, better to measure snow liquid water content rather than snow depth Further enhancement in data assimilation, NWP and generated analysis Generation of ‘synthetic observations’ and improved verification / evaluation methodologies Face of PWS with respect to the WMO service delivery strategy Rolling review of DRR requirements from user community for information feeding into national DRR decision making Improved standards for interoperability of datasets and communication

CBS Task Team on the Provision of Operational Meteorological Assistance to Humanitarian Agencies The Commission endorsed the actions identified by the Task Team, including the pilot projects within the framework of the WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) for the development of prototype products and services to support humanitarian agencies’ emergency contingency planning, preparedness and response. In this regard, the Commission stressed the need for designation criteria, and functions, of Centres that could specialize in the development and provision of such products and services.

WORKING EXAMPLE Savings lives on Lake Victoria

Mobile Weather Alert project Objective: Utilise mobile phone technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards. Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

Project Overview Project Partners: MINISTRY OF WATER, LANDS AND ENVIRONMENT, DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY, P. O. BOX 7025, KAMPALA UGANDA

Project Structure (1) Integrated Observations OPAG IOS (2) Severe Weather Forecasting OPAG DPFS (3) Communication via mobile phone OPAG ISS (5) Socio-economic benefits analysis Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology (4) Stakeholder Engagement OPAG PWS

Key Outcomes (1) Integrated Observations OPAG IOS (2) Severe Weather Forecasting (3) Communication via mobile phone (4) Stakeholder Engagement (5) Socio-economic benefits analysis All operational Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) in Uganda integrated into Observation Data Management Systems located at National Forecast Centre in Entebbe. Quality of data collected by AWSs located at mobile phone mast sites is evaluated through a systematic and scientific (peer reviewed) data trial. Observations of Lake Victoria surface temperature integrated onto WMO GTS and data available for weather forecast models. Possibility of further AWSs installed at suitable locations selected and managed by NMHS.

Key Outcomes (1) Integrated Observations (2) Severe Weather Forecasting OPAG DPFS (3) Communication via mobile phone (4) Stakeholder Engagement (5) Socio-economic benefits analysis Drawing upon Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and other initiatives, clearly defined processes for the delivery of pilot warnings and forecasts established and implemented. Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

SWFDP: Concept of Cascading Information Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities; Regional centre interprets information from global centres, Prepare guidance forecasts for NMHSs, run limited-area model to refine products NMHSs issue alerts and warnings to Disaster Management and public

Key Outcomes (1) Integrated Observations (2) Severe Weather Forecasting (3) Communication via mobile phone OPAG ISS (4) Stakeholder Engagement (5) Socio-economic benefits analysis Accurate, timely and reliable weather forecasts and warnings are routinely disseminated to pilot communities of fishermen, in Uganda, for the duration of the trial. Seasonal and other weather information provided via Uganda Department of Meteorology website and disseminated via mobile WEB, or WAP, for the duration of the pilot for the chosen agricultural communities. Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

Key Outcomes (1) Integrated Observations (2) Severe Weather Forecasting (3) Communication via mobile phone (4) Stakeholder Engagement OPAG PWS (5) Socio-economic benefits analysis Active and relevant community relationships established with the pilot communities of: • Fishermen on Lake Victoria • Farmers in Lake Victoria region Project management process established to enable successful project implementation and evaluation. Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

Key Outcomes (1) Integrated Observations (2) Severe Weather Forecasting (3) Communication via mobile phone (4) Stakeholder Engagement (5) Socio-economic benefits analysis Verification study completed on the accuracy of available forecast products and the impact of the warnings. (This will be conducted in synergy with SWFDP for East Africa). Benefits analysis completed and case studies published. Business model developed for the wider roll-out of programme across Sub. Saharan Africa (and beyond) is agreed and communicated Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology

Challenges ( • ) and Opportunities (√) • Forecasting tools better used, but a gap in nowcasting tools evident: ü No radars, thus must be MSG satellite based • There were data communication challenges ü Need to establish a common approach to define requirements and standards • Interaction between NMHSs, disaster management authorities, media and reaction of public is still not optimal ü Bridge the gap between innovation and need ü Develop enhanced products and services to disaster management ü Develop the coordination between forecasters and disaster managers and the media ü Carry out public awareness raising campaigns

Looking to the Future… • Additional hazards to be added, moving it towards a Multi. Hazard Early Warming Service • Specific focus on improving forecasting services to disaster management, including a focused demonstration project • Annual training provides excellent platform for focused capacity building to continue reducing the technology gap • Intention is to enhance user information through a regional warning information webpage based on Europe’s Meteoalarm, developed for regional technology

Thank you to CBS OPAG Chairs & Co-Chairs and Secretariat