Caspian Sea Scenario Caspian Sea Scenario

Caspian Sea Scenario

Caspian Sea Scenario • Scenario Build-up • National/Operational Objectives • Order of Battle (Red and Blue) • Courses of Action (Red and Blue) • CINC’s Target & Collection Priorities

Caucus and Central Asia Nations The region’s two dominate issues: • Ethnic and religious divisions • Oil and gas

Russia Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Georgia Azerbaijan Turkey Iran Under construction. Caspian Sea Pipelines 2010 Ukraine Commercial Shipping Proposed

Disputed boundary waters. Caspian Sea Ownership Partially Resolved

Proven Oil 32 B Barrels 8 B Russia. Kazakhstan Proven Gas 135 Tcf 44 Tcf. Kazakhstan. Russia 2006 Caspian Sea Resource Survey

Azerbaijan. Turkmenistan Iran. Proven Oil 16 B 26 B Barrels 4 B Proven Gas 55 18 165 Tcf Iran. Turkmenistan. Azerbaijan Disputed boundary waters contain 28% of all Caspian oil and gas reserves

Union of Central Asia Nations

Ethnic Map of Central Asia

TURKMENISTAN AFGHANISTAN PAKISTANIRAQ Kuwait Saudi Arabia Qatar UAEBahrain Oman. T U R K E Y AZERBAIJAN UZBEKISTAN Tehran. Mahabad. Tabriz Bandar Abbas Chahahar. Shiraz. Dezful Ahvaz Bushehr Mashhad Hamadan Zahedan. Isfahan Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Ashgabat. Gyzylarbat AFGHANISTAN Force Deployments U. S. A. IBCTTurkmenistan Forces. Iranian Forces

Area of Operation • Turkmenistan • Iran • Persian Gulf • Arabian Sea Areas of Interest • Iraq, Syria, & Yemen • Northern borders of Afghanistan • Pakistan. JTF Joint Lifeline

IRAN TURKMENISTANUZBEKISTAN Dashowuz 8, 500 3, 000 6, 50025, 000 U. S. Turkmen Iranian Russian Nebitdag Cheleken Turkmenbashy Gyzylarbat. KAZAKHSTAN Russians 4 days out Mary. A second IBCT (2, 500 soldiers) will arrive in Turkey in 8 days. They will not be fully constituted in Turkmenistan for another 7 days.

National & Operational Objectives • National Objectives – Maintain Turkmenistan’s territorial sovereignty – Maintain political, economic, and military stability of Central Asia – Maintain political, economic, and military stability of the Gulf Council Countries (GCC) and the Middle East – Maintain world economic stability by ensuring the world market has continued access to Mid-east oil and gas • Operational Objectives should Iran attack Turkmenistan – Drive Iranian forces from Turkmenistan territory – Cripple their ability to mount a similar incursion in the future – Prevent the conflict from expanding to neighboring states – Counter any Iranian attempt to cut off the Strait of Hormuz – Should an attempt be made to cut off the Strait, eliminate Iran’s ability to sustain the closure and eliminate their ability to reinstate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Pre-Hostilities ROE • No over-flight of Azerbaijan or Pakistani airspace • Over-flight of Georgia and Russia is authorized through a specified air corridor with pre-coordination – A 250 nm radius no-fly zone has been instituted around the Biakonur Cosmodrome, a Russian administered zone within Kazakhstan • During pre-hostilities there are no flights over Iranian airspace without prior and direct authorization from CINCCENT • Strike assets stationed in Saudi Arabia cannot fly force visibility/strike missions over the Persian Gulf or Arabian Sea. • Tanker, C 2, and ISR platforms stationed in {Bahrain} Saudi Arabia? can be used to support missions against Iran • Any air asset can be stationed in Kuwait, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan providing airfield facilities can support the beddown.

Pre-Hostilities ROE (cont. ) • Self-defense ROE for US forces in the region is in effect – Combat aircraft are uploaded with A/A missiles and ARMs – Army aviation is flying with full combat loading • Turkey will not allow combat missions to be flown against Iran unless the Iranians strike Turkey – Turkey will allow transport, ISR, and defensive CAP to be flown – Incirlik, Izmir and Ezerum AB are available to US forces, as are the ports of Sinop and Istanbul.

Iran’s Order of Battle (OB)

TURKMENISTAN PAKISTANIRAQ Kuwait Saudi Arabia Qatar UAEBahrain Oman. T U R K E Y AZERBAIJAN UZBEKISTAN AFGHANISTANIranian Army 13 Reg. Divisions • 4 Armor • 3 Mechanized • 6 Infantry Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Ashgabat. Gyzylarbat AFGHANISTAN 4 Reserve Infantry Divisions. Tehran. Mahabad. Tabriz Bandar Abbas Chahahar. Shiraz. Dezful Ahvaz Bushehr Mashhad Hamadan Zahedan. Esfahan

Caspian Sea Maritime Operating Areas Tehran. Bandar-e Anzali Bandar-e Torkaman Chalus Iran Caspian Sea NOB: Anzali: • Guided Missile Patrol Cutter 1 • Guided Missile Patrol Boat 3 • Anti-ship Helicopters 3 Chalus: • Guided Missile Patrol Boat 2 Torkaman • Guided Missile Patrol Boat 3 • Anti-ship Helicopters

IRAN UNITED ARAB EMIRATES OMANQ A T A R OMANBandar-e Lengeh Bandar-e Abbas Jask. Lavan Is. Kish Is. Sirri Is. Forur Is. Abu Musa Is. Tunb Is. Lorak Is. Qeshm Is. Bandar-e Abbas: • FFG 3 • Minelayers 2 • Attack Helos 12 Bandar-e Lengeh: • FFG 3 • PBG 6 • Attack Helos: 8 Jask: • Kilo Class Subs 2 Lavan Isand: • 1000 troops • C-802 launchers 6 • SA-5/SA-6 s • ASu. W Helos 4 Kish Island: • 700 troops • C-802 launchers 4 • PBGs 6 • ASu. W Helos 4 • SA-6 s Forur Isand: • 400 troops • C-802 launchers 3 • PBGs 6 • SA-5/SA-6 s Sirri Island: • 750 troops • C-802 launchers 4 • Silkworms 3 • ASu. W Helos 4 • PBGs 6 Abu Musa Island: • 1100 troops • C-802 launchers 6 • Silkworms 3 • ASu. W Helos 8 • PBGs 6 Tunb Island: • 350 troops • C-802 Launchers 2 • Silkworms 2 • PBGs 6 Qeshm Island: • 3500 troops • C-802 Launchers 9 • PBGs 12 • SA-5/SA-6 s Lorak Island: • 350 troops • C-802 Launchers 2 • Silkworms 2 • PBGs 6 • ASu. W Helos

Shiraz Bushehr Dezful Chabahar. Abbas. Tabriz Sari Mashhad Shahrud Mi. G-29/15 Mi. G-31/24 Su-30/12 Su-24/12 J-12/12 F-4 D/15 Mi. G-29/12 Mi. G-27/15 F-5 E/12 Su-30/24 J-12/12 F-7/24 F-4 D/12 F-5 E/24 J-7/12 F-4 D/12 J-7/24 F-5 E/12 F-14 A-12 F-4 D/15 Mi. G-29/12 Su-25/7 F-4 D/12 Su-24/12 F-5 E/12 Iranian Air Order of Battle F-14 A/13 J-12/12 Mi. G-27/12 F-4 D/

Scud C Scud B CSS 8 Legend 500 Km 300 Km 150 Km Short Range Ballistic Missiles

TURKMENISTAN AFGHANISTAN PAKISTANIRAQ Kuwait Saudi Arabia Qatar UAEBahrain Oman. T U R K E Y AZERBAIJAN UZBEKISTAN Mahabad. Tabriz Bandar Abbas Chahahar. Shiraz. Dezful Ahvaz Bushehr Mashhad. Ashgabat Zahedan. Tehran Isfahan. Hamadan Theater Missile Operations Areas

Yazd. Ni’an. Kashan Isfahan Railroad Primary Road Secondary Road Unimproved Road. Underground NBC Storage Surveillance Radar Fire Control Radar & Launch Battery. Qom 50 nm Badr AB Ni’an Military Base Army Heliport

Iran’s Expected Course of Action (COA)

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari ‘ Amol Gyzyletrek 75 km. Iran COA: H-Hour Axis of attack Ashgabat. Cheleken Ezserum Gyzylarbat Strikes on airfields 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 5 6 77 1 Armor + 1 Mech

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari ‘ Amol Gyzyletrek 75 km. Iran COA: H+24 Axis of attack Ashgabat. Cheleken Ezserum Gyzylarbat Strikes on airfields 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Reserve Division

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari ‘ Amol Gyzyletrek 75 km. Iran COA: H+72 Axis of attack Cheleken Ezserum Gyzylarbat Strikes on airfields 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 1 2 3 4 5 6 74 Ashgabat Reserve Division

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari ‘ Amol Gyzyletrek 75 km Axis of attack Cheleken Ezserum Strikes on airfields 1 2 5 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 77 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Ashgabat. Iran COA: H+96 3 Gyzylarbat RR

Division on the Attacker/ Daytime Night Defender Ratio Type Unit Terrain Advance 3: 1 Heavy Resistance Armor/Mech Unrestricted 7. 5 km/day 5. 0 km/night 3: 1 Heavy Resistance Infantry Unrestricted 5. 0 km/day 2. 5 km/night 3: 1 Heavy Resistance Armor/Mech Restricted 3. 5 km/day 2. 0 km/night 3: 1 Heavy Resistance Infantry Restricted 2. 5 km/day 1. 5 km/night 4: 1 Medium Resistance Armor/Mech Unrestricted 10 km/day 5. 0 km/night 4: 1 Medium Resistance Infantry Unrestricted 6. 0 km/day 3. 0 km/night 4: 1 Medium Resistance Armor/Mech Restricted 5. 0 km/day 2. 5 km/night 4: 1 Medium Resistance Infantry Restricted 3. 0 km/day 1. 5 km/night 5: 1 Light Resistance Armor/Mech Unrestricted 18 km/day 9. 0 km/night 5: 1 Light Resistance Infantry Unrestricted 10 km/day 5. 0 km/night 5: 1 Light Resistance Armor/Mech Restricted 10 km/day 5. 0 km/night 5: 1 Light Resistance Infantry Restricted 5. 0 km/day 2. 5 km/night 6: 1 Negligible Resistance Armor/Mech Unrestricted 30 km/day 15 km/night 6: 1 Negligible Resistance Infantry Unrestricted 12 km/day 6. 0 km/night 6: 1 Negligible Resistance Armor/Mech Restricted 15 km/day 7. 5 km/night 6: 1 Negligible Resistance Infantry Restricted 6. 0 km/day 3. 0 km/night

Division on the Attack Standard Extended Unit Frontage Vehicle Gap Division (Zone of Attack) 15 km 25 km Brigade (Zone of Attack) 8. 0 km 15 km Division (Main Attack Axis) 6. 0 km 10 km Brigade (Main Attack Axis) 3. 5 km 5. 0 km Mechanized Battalion 4, 000 m 100 m 8, 000 m 200 m Tank Battalion 4, 000 m 150 m 8, 000 m 300 m Unit Deployment from FEBA Depth in km Occupation Area Division Rear CP 30 km 2. 0 km radius Division Supply Dump (Ammo, POL, Rations) 30 km 12 km radius (can be broken up) Division Repair Point 30 km 4 km radius Division Main CP 15 km 1. 0 km radius Brigade Supply Point (Ammo, POL, Rations ) 10 km 7. 0 km radius (can be broken up) Brigade Repair Point 7. 0 km 2. 0 km radius Division Artillery Group 6. 0 km 2. 5 km radius Division Forward CP 5. 0 km 0. 5 km radius Brigade Main CP 5. 0 km 0. 5 km radius Brigade Artillery Group 5. 0 km 1. 5 km radius Battalion Supply Point (Ammo, POL, Rations) 4. 0 km 2. 5 km radius (can be broken up)

Blue Order of Battle (OB)

Samarqand. Bukhara. Nukus Tashkent Mary. Dashhowuz Turkmenbashy Nebitdag Cheleken Gyzylarbat Ashgabat Dushanbe. Blue Air Order of Battle over Turkmenistan Aqtau, Kazakhstan RC-135/3 E-3 C/3 E-8 B/3 EKC-135 R/8 F-22/24 F-15 E/24 A-10 A/24 AC-130/2 MC-130 CT/2 MC-130 CS/2 F-16 CJ/24 F-16 CG/12 EA-45 A/12 KC-135 R/8 KC-10 A/4 KC-767 A/4 EB-52/3 Mi. G 29/14 Su-25/20 Su-17/5 MH-53 J/4 MH-60/4 MH-22 A/4 RQ-1 B/4 Longbows/

Abu Dhabi. Incirlik Base “X” Masirah. Erezrum PSAB Al Jaber USS Lincoln USS Roosevelt. F-14 D/10 F/A-18 C/24 F/A-18 E/6 E-2 C/4 EA-6 B/4 F-15 C/18 F-18 D/14 RC 135 RJ/3 KC 767 A/8 EC 130/4 E-3 C/4 F-15 C/12 RF-45 A/3 MC-130 CS/2 F-15 C/18 F-15 CJ/18 EA-6 B/5 RC-135/1 KC-135 R/10 Lefkosia U-2 R/4 Blue AOB Not yet in-theater B 1 -B/6 EB-52/3 KC-10 A/4 F-18 F/10 F/A-18 C/24 F/A-18 E/6 E-2 C/4 EA-6 B/4 MC-130 CS/2 KC-135 R/8 MV-22 A/6 RQ-1 B/4 F-16 CJ/24 F-16 CG/36 F-22/24 F-15 E/12 EA-45 A/12 KC 135 R/

Caspian Sea Maritime Operating Areas A A 1 B B 1 B 2 C C 1 C 2 D D 1 D 2 E E 1 E 2 F F 1 F 2 G G 1 G 2 H H 1 H 2 I I 1 I 2 D 3 E 3 F 3 G 3 H 3 I 3 Patrolled by Azerbaijan Patrolled by Kazakhstan & Russia Tehran. Bandar-e Anzali Bandar-e. Torkaman Chalus Blue Caspian Sea NOB: Kazakhstan: • Guided Missile Patrol Cutter 11 • Guided Missile Patrol Boat 22 Russia: • Turya T 118 1 • Turya T 75 1 • Guided Missile Patrol Boat 6 • Minesweeper

A B C D E F G H JI L M N O 1 P 1 Q 1 R 1 O P Q R R 2 S S 1 TCVOA 1 CVOA 2 CVOA 3 CVOA 4 CVOA 5 CVOA 6 CVOA 7 CVOA 8 CVOA 9 CVOA 11 CVOA 10 CVOA 12 A 1 A 2 B 1 B 2 B 3 C 1 C 2 C 3 D 1 D 2 D 3 E 1 E 2 E 3 F 1 F 2 F 3 G 1 G 2 G 3 H 1 H 2 H 3 J 1 J 2 J 3 I 1 I 2 I 3 L 1 L 2 L 3 M 1 M 2 M 3 N 1 N 2 U 1 O 2 03 V 1 P 2 W W 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 R 3 R 4 R 5 S 2 S 3 T 1 B 4 1 A 2 A 3 A 4 A 5 A 6 A 7 A 8 A 9 A 11 A 12 U 2 V 2 W 25 B 5 C 6 B L 4 U V S 4 Maritime Operating Area (MOA)Carrier (CV) Operating Area Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman Operating Areas Assets In place • CVOA 4 CV • CVOA 7 MCM, MHC • CVOA 9 TAGOS • CVOA 10 AGF • MOA 3 A LHD, LPD, LSD • MOA G 3 DDX • MOA H 3 2 -AOEs • MOA M 3 SSGN, AOR • MOA N 2 2 -DDGs, MCM • MOA Q 3 3 -DDGs • MOA R 3 DDG, AOE • MOA S 2 CG, SSN, AOE Assets Enroute • CVOA 11 CV • MOA 9 A LHA, LHD, LSD • MOA L 3 DDG • MOA N 1 SSN • MOA Q 2 SSGN • MOA R 4 CG • MOA S 3 CG • MOA U 2 DDX

Blue Force Course of Action (COA)

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari Babol 75 km. Blue Force COA: H-Hour Iranian axis of attack Ashgabat. Cheleken Ezserum Gyzylarbat Air strikes 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 5 6 77 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Gyzyletrek

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari Babol 75 km. Blue Force COA: H-Hour Iranian axis of attack Ashgabat. Cheleken Ezserum Gyzylarbat Air strikes 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 5 6 77 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Gyzyletrek

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari Babol Gyzyletrek 75 km. Iran COA: H+24 Axis of attack Ashgabat. Cheleken Ezserum Gyzylarbat Strikes on ground forces 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Reserve Division

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari Babol Gyzyletrek 75 km. Blue Force COA: H+48 Axis of attack Cheleken Ezserum Gyzylarbat Strikes on ground forces 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 1 2 3 5 74 Ashgabat Reserve Division

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari Babol Gyzyletrek 75 km Axis of attack Cheleken Ezserum Strikes of ground forces 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDEIran COA: H+72 1 2 4 5 6 73 Gyzylarbat Reserve Division Russian Mech Inf Division. Ashgabat

Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Mary Mashhad Shahrud. Gonbad-e Kavas Gorgan Semnan Sarakhs. Quchan Torbat. Sari Babol Gyzyletrek 75 km Axis of attack Cheleken Ezserum Strikes on ground forces 1 2 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 77 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDEBlue Force COA: H+96 3 Gyzylarbat Ashgabat Russian Mech Inf Division Reserve Division

Blue Force Sortie Allocation/Day Defensive CA Close Air Support* Strategic Attack**SEAD Offensive CADay First 24 hours 120 144 96 24 24 to 48 hours 120 72 120 192 24 48 to 72 hours 72 72 48 336 96 72 to 96 hours 72 72 32 352 96 * Does not include Longbow helo missions ** Includes B-52 s from Diego Garcia

Blue Force Target Priorities * SA-10 B systems are defending Iranian airfields at Sari, Shahrud, and Mashhad the three primary airfields to attack via offensive counter-air missions ** WMD sites will be attacked only when SOF forces indicate chem/bio weapons are being moved Iranian Airfields Iranian Ground Units Unit Unit Reserve 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Unit. Pt Defense/ SAMs* WMD Sites**Day First 24 hours 1 (PD) 2 3 8 9 6 7 5 4 10 — 24 to 48 hours 1 (both) 3 2 7 8 4 9 6 5 — 10 48 to 72 hours 4 (area) 8 1 2 5 3 8 7 9 — 6 72 to 96 hours 4 (area) 10 1 2 3 5 8 7 9 — 6 Detailed target priority and ISR collection lists are found in separate spreadsheets