Caspian Scenario_Presentation.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 44
Caspian Sea Scenario
Caspian Sea Scenario • Scenario Build-up • National/Operational Objectives • Order of Battle (Red and Blue) • Courses of Action (Red and Blue) • CINC’s Target & Collection Priorities
Caucus and Central Asia Nations The region’s two dominate issues: • Ethnic and religious divisions • Oil and gas
Caspian Sea Pipelines 2010 Russia Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Georgia Azerbaijan Turkey Iran Ukraine Commercial Shipping Under construction Proposed
Caspian Sea Ownership Partially Resolved Disputed boundary waters
2006 Caspian Sea Resource Survey Proven Oil 8 B 32 B Barrels Russia Kazakhstan Proven Gas 44 Tcf 135 Tcf
Proven Oil Azerbaijan Turkmenistan 16 B 4 B 26 B Barrels Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Iran Proven Gas Disputed boundary waters contain 28% of all Caspian oil and gas reserves Iran 55 18 Iran 165 Tcf
Union of Central Asia Nations
Ethnic Map of Central Asia
T U R K E Y AZERBAIJAN Nebitdag TURKMENISTAN Turkmenbashy UZBEKISTAN Gyzylarbat Ashgabat Tabriz Mahabad IRAQ Hamadan Mashhad Tehran AFGHANISTAN Dezful Isfahan Ahvaz Shiraz Kuwait Zahedan Bushehr Force Deployments Iranian Forces Turkmenistan Forces U. S. A. IBCT Saudi Arabia AFGHANISTAN Bandar Abbas Bahrain Qatar Chahahar UAE Oman PAKISTAN
Area of Operation JTF Joint Lifeline • Turkmenistan • Iran • Persian Gulf • Arabian Sea Areas of Interest • Iraq, Syria, & Yemen • Northern borders of Afghanistan • Pakistan
KAZAKHSTAN UZBEKISTAN Turkmenbashy A second IBCT (2, 500 soldiers) will arrive in Turkey in 8 days. They will not be fully constituted in Turkmenistan for another 7 days. Nebitdag Dashowuz Turkmen U. S. Russian Iranian TURKMENISTAN Cheleken 8, 500 Gyzylarbat 25, 000 3, 000 6, 500 Mary Russians 4 days out IRAN
National & Operational Objectives • National Objectives – Maintain Turkmenistan’s territorial sovereignty – Maintain political, economic, and military stability of Central Asia – Maintain political, economic, and military stability of the Gulf Council Countries (GCC) and the Middle East – Maintain world economic stability by ensuring the world market has continued access to Mid-east oil and gas • Operational Objectives should Iran attack Turkmenistan – – – Drive Iranian forces from Turkmenistan territory Cripple their ability to mount a similar incursion in the future Prevent the conflict from expanding to neighboring states Counter any Iranian attempt to cut off the Strait of Hormuz Should an attempt be made to cut off the Strait, eliminate Iran’s ability to sustain the closure and eliminate their ability to reinstate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Pre-Hostilities ROE • No over-flight of Azerbaijan or Pakistani airspace • Over-flight of Georgia and Russia is authorized through a specified air corridor with pre-coordination – A 250 nm radius no-fly zone has been instituted around the Biakonur Cosmodrome, a Russian administered zone within Kazakhstan • During pre-hostilities there are no flights over Iranian airspace without prior and direct authorization from CINCCENT • Strike assets stationed in Saudi Arabia cannot fly force visibility/strike missions over the Persian Gulf or Arabian Sea. • Tanker, C 2, and ISR platforms stationed in {Bahrain} Saudi Arabia? can be used to support missions against Iran • Any air asset can be stationed in Kuwait, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan providing airfield facilities can support the beddown.
Pre-Hostilities ROE (cont. ) • Self-defense ROE for US forces in the region is in effect – Combat aircraft are uploaded with A/A missiles and ARMs – Army aviation is flying with full combat loading • Turkey will not allow combat missions to be flown against Iran unless the Iranians strike Turkey – Turkey will allow transport, ISR, and defensive CAP to be flown – Incirlik, Izmir and Ezerum AB are available to US forces, as are the ports of Sinop and Istanbul.
Iran’s Order of Battle (OB)
T U R K E Y AZERBAIJAN TURKMENISTAN Turkmenbashy UZBEKISTAN Gyzylarbat Ashgabat Tabriz Mahabad IRAQ Nebitdag Hamadan Mashhad Tehran Iranian Army 13 Reg. Divisions AFGHANISTAN Dezful • 4 Armor • 3 Mechanized • 6 Infantry Esfahan 4 Reserve Infantry Divisions Ahvaz Shiraz Kuwait Zahedan AFGHANISTAN Bushehr Bandar Abbas Bahrain Qatar Saudi Arabia Chahahar UAE Oman PAKISTAN
Caspian Sea Maritime Operating Areas Bandar-e Anzali Chalus Iran Caspian Sea NOB: Anzali: • Guided Missile Patrol Cutter • Guided Missile Patrol Boat • Anti-ship Helicopters 1 3 3 Chalus: • Guided Missile Patrol Boat 2 Torkaman • Guided Missile Patrol Boat • Anti-ship Helicopters 3 3 Tehran Bandar-e Torkaman
Bandar-e Abbas: • FFG • Minelayers • Attack Helos Lavan Isand: 3 2 12 Bandar-e Lengeh: • FFG • PBG • Attack Helos: 3 6 8 Jask: • Kilo Class Subs 2 Forur Isand: Abu Musa Island: Qeshm Island: • • • • • 1000 troops C-802 launchers 6 SA-5/SA-6 s ASu. W Helos 4 400 troops C-802 launchers 3 PBGs 6 SA-5/SA-6 s Kish Island: Sirri Island: • • • 700 troops C-802 launchers 4 PBGs 6 ASu. W Helos 4 SA-6 s 750 troops C-802 launchers Silkworms ASu. WIRAN Helos PBGs 1100 troops C-802 launchers Silkworms ASu. W Helos PBGs 6 3 8 6 Tunb Island: 4 3 4 6 • • 350 troops C-802 Launchers Silkworms PBGs 2 2 6 3500 troops C-802 Launchers 9 PBGs 12 SA-5/SA-6 s Lorak Island: • • • 350 troops C-802 Launchers Silkworms PBGs ASu. W Helos 2 2 6 6 Bandar-e Abbas Lavan Is. Bandar-e Lengeh Lorak Is. Qeshm Is. Kish Is. Forur Is. Tunb Is. Q A T A R Sirri Is. Abu Musa Is. OMAN UNITED ARAB EMIRATES OMAN Jask
Iranian Air Order of Battle F-4 D/12 F-5 E/24 J-7/12 F-5 E/12 F-14 A-12 Su-30/24 J-12/12 F-4 D/12 F-7/24 J-7/24 F-4 D/15 Mi. G-29/12 Mi. G-27/15 F-5 E/12 Mi. G-31/24 Su-30/12 Su-24/12 Mi. G-29/15 J-12/12 Tabriz Sari Shahrud Su-25/7 F-4 D/12 Su-24/12 F-5 E/12 Dezful F-4 D/15 Mi. G-29/12 Mashhad F-14 A/13 J-12/12 Mi. G-27/12 F-4 D/15 Shiraz Bushehr Abbas Chabahar
Short Range Ballistic Missiles Legend Scud C 500 Km Scud B 300 Km CSS 8 150 Km
T U R K E Y AZERBAIJAN TURKMENISTAN Ashgabat Tabriz Mahabad IRAQ UZBEKISTAN Mashhad Tehran Hamadan AFGHANISTAN Dezful Isfahan Ahvaz Shiraz Zahedan Kuwait Bushehr Bandar Abbas Theater Missile Operations Areas Saudi Arabia Bahrain Qatar Chahahar UAE Oman PAKISTAN
Qom 50 nm Underground NBC Storage Surveillance Radar Fire Control Radar & Launch Battery Kashan Ni’an Military Base Isfahan Badr AB Ni’an Army Heliport Yazd Railroad Primary Road Secondary Road Unimproved Road
Iran’s Expected Course of Action (COA)
Iran COA: H-Hour Strikes on airfields 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Axis of attack 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Ezserum Gyzyletrek 1 2 3 4 Ashgabat 5 Mary 6 Gonbad-e Kavas Quchan 7 Sari ‘Amol Gorgan Shahrud Sarakhs Mashhad Semnan 75 km Torbat
Axis of attack Iran COA: H+24 Strikes on airfields 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 2 3 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 5 Ashgabat 1 Ezserum Gyzyletrek 4 Mary 6 7 Gonbad-e Kavas Sari ‘Amol Quchan Shahrud Mashhad Gorgan Sarakhs Semnan Reserve Division 75 km Torbat
Iran COA: H+72 Axis of attack Strikes on airfields 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 2 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 3 4 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 5 Ashgabat Ezserum Gyzyletrek Sari ‘Amol 7 6 Gonbad-e Kavas Reserve Division Mary Quchan Shahrud Mashhad Gorgan Sarakhs Semnan 75 km Torbat
Iran COA: H+96 1 2 Turkmenbashy Axis of attack Strikes on airfields 3 5 Nebitdag Cheleken 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE R 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN 4 Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN R 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 5 Ezserum Ashgabat Gyzyletrek Gonbad-e Kavas Sari ‘Amol Mary 6 Quchan Shahrud 7 Mashhad Gorgan Sarakhs Semnan 75 km Torbat
Division on the Attacker/ Defender Ratio 3: 1 Heavy Resistance 4: 1 Medium Resistance 5: 1 Light Resistance 6: 1 Negligible Resistance Type Unit Armor/Mech Infantry Armor/Mech Infantry Terrain Unrestricted Unrestricted Restricted Restricted Daytime Advance 7. 5 km/day 5. 0 km/day 3. 5 km/day 2. 5 km/day 10 km/day 6. 0 km/day 5. 0 km/day 3. 0 km/day 18 km/day 10 km/day 5. 0 km/day 30 km/day 12 km/day 15 km/day 6. 0 km/day Night Advance 5. 0 km/night 2. 5 km/night 2. 0 km/night 1. 5 km/night 5. 0 km/night 3. 0 km/night 2. 5 km/night 1. 5 km/night 9. 0 km/night 5. 0 km/night 2. 5 km/night 15 km/night 6. 0 km/night 7. 5 km/night 3. 0 km/night
Division on the Attack Standard Unit Frontage Division (Zone of Attack) 15 km Brigade (Zone of Attack) 8. 0 km Division (Main Attack Axis) 6. 0 km Brigade (Main Attack Axis) 3. 5 km Mechanized Battalion 4, 000 m Tank Battalion 4, 000 m Standard Vehicle Gap 100 m 150 m Unit Deployment from FEBA Depth in km Division Rear CP 30 km Division Supply Dump (Ammo, POL, Rations) 30 km Division Repair Point 30 km Division Main CP 15 km Brigade Supply Point (Ammo, POL, Rations) 10 km Brigade Repair Point 7. 0 km Division Artillery Group 6. 0 km Division Forward CP 5. 0 km Brigade Main CP 5. 0 km Brigade Artillery Group 5. 0 km Battalion Supply Point (Ammo, POL, Rations) 4. 0 km Extended Frontage 25 km 10 km 5. 0 km 8, 000 m Extended Vehicle Gap 200 m 300 m Occupation Area 2. 0 km radius 12 km radius (can be broken up) 4 km radius 1. 0 km radius 7. 0 km radius (can be broken up) 2. 0 km radius 2. 5 km radius 0. 5 km radius 1. 5 km radius 2. 5 km radius (can be broken up)
Blue Order of Battle (OB)
Blue Air Order of Battle over Turkmenistan Aqtau, Kazakhstan RC-135/3 E-3 C/3 E-8 B/3 EKC-135 R/8 MH-53 J/4 MH-60/4 MH-22 A/4 RQ-1 B/4 F-22/24 F-15 E/24 A-10 A/24 AC-130/2 MC-130 CT/2 MC-130 CS/2 Mi. G 29/14 Su-25/20 Su-17/5 F-16 CJ/24 F-16 CG/12 EA-45 A/12 KC-135 R/8 KC-10 A/4 KC-767 A/4 EB-52/3 Longbows/18 Nukus Dashhowuz Tashkent Turkmenbashy Nebitdag Cheleken Bukhara Samarqand Gyzylarbat Ashgabat Mary Dushanbe
F-16 CJ/24 F-15 C/18 F-16 CG/36 F-14 D/10 RC 135 RJ/3 F-15 CJ/18 MC-130 CS/2 F/A-18 C/24 F-22/24 KC 767 A/8 F-15 C/12 EA-6 B/5 F/A-18 E/6 F-15 E/12 KC-135 R/8 B 1 -B/6 EC 130/4 F-15 C/18 E-2 C/4 RF-45 A/3 RC-135/1 EB-52/3 EA-45 A/12 MV-22 A/6 KC-135 R/10 MC-130 CS/2 E-3 C/4 F-18 D/14 EA-6 B/4 KC-10 A/4 KC 135 R/4 RQ-1 B/4 F-18 F/10 F/A-18 C/24 F/A-18 E/6 E-2 C/4 EA-6 B/4 Erezrum Incirlik Lefkosia U-2 R/4 Al Jaber PSAB USS Lincoln Base “X” Blue AOB Not yet in-theater Abu Dhabi USS Roosevelt Masirah
Caspian Sea Maritime Operating Areas Patrolled by Azerbaijan Patrolled by Kazakhstan & Russia A B C D E F G H I A 1 B 1 C 1 D 1 E 1 F 1 G 1 H 1 I 1 E 2 F 2 G 2 H 2 I 2 Bandar-e Anzali C 2 D 3 E 3 Chalus F 3 G 3 Bandar-e. Torkaman H 3 I 3 Blue Caspian Sea NOB: Kazakhstan: Tehran • Guided Missile Patrol Cutter • Guided Missile Patrol Boat 11 22 Russia: • Turya T 118 • Turya T 75 • Guided Missile Patrol Boat • Minesweeper 1 1 6 1
Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman Operating Areas Assets In place • • • CVOA 4 CVOA 7 CVOA 9 CVOA 10 MOA 3 A MOA G 3 MOA H 3 MOA M 3 MOA N 2 MOA Q 3 MOA R 3 MOA S 2 B C A B 1 C 1 D A 1 B 2 C 2 D 1 E A 2 B 3 C 3 D 2 E 1 F B 4 CVOA D 3 E 2 F 1 G E 3 F 2 G 1 H 2 A CVOA F 3 G 2 H 1 I 3 A CVOA G 3 H 2 I 1 J 1 L M 4 A CVOA H 3 I 2 J 2 L 1 I 3 J 3 CV MCM, MHC TAGOS AGF LHD, LPD, LSD DDX 2 -AOEs SSGN, AOR 2 -DDGs, MCM 3 -DDGs DDG, AOE CG, SSN, AOE J 1 1 A CVOA 2 3 4 5 5 A CVOA 6 5 B 6 A 5 C 6 B Carrier (CV) Operating Area Maritime Operating Area (MOA) CVOA 7 8 7 A 8 A Assets Enroute • • CVOA 11 MOA 9 A MOA L 3 MOA N 1 MOA Q 2 MOA R 4 MOA S 3 MOA U 2 CV LHA, LHD, LSD DDG SSN SSGN CG CG DDX O P Q R N O 1 P 1 Q 1 R 1 M 1 N 1 O 2 P 2 Q 2 R 2 S L 2 M 2 N 2 03 Q 3 R 3 S 1 T U V W L 3 M 3 Q 4 R 4 S 2 T 1 U 1 V 1 W R 5 S 3 CVOA 9 U 2 V 2 W S 4 9 A L 4 CVOA CVO 10 11 12 11 A 12
Blue Force Course of Action (COA)
Blue Force COA: H-Hour Air strikes 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Iranian axis of attack 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Ezserum Gyzyletrek 1 2 3 4 Ashgabat 5 Mary 6 Gonbad-e Kavas Quchan 7 Sari Babol Gorgan Shahrud Sarakhs Mashhad Semnan 75 km Torbat
Blue Force COA: H-Hour Air strikes 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Iranian axis of attack 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Ezserum Gyzyletrek 1 2 3 4 Ashgabat 5 Mary 6 Gonbad-e Kavas Quchan 7 Sari Babol Gorgan Shahrud Sarakhs Mashhad Semnan 75 km Torbat
Axis of attack Iran COA: H+24 Strikes on ground forces 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 2 3 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 5 Ashgabat 1 Ezserum Gyzyletrek 4 6 7 Gonbad-e Kavas Sari Babol Quchan Shahrud Mashhad Gorgan Sarakhs Semnan Reserve Division Mary 75 km Torbat
Blue Force COA: H+48 Strikes on ground forces 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy Axis of attack 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 2 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 1 3 4 Ezserum Gyzyletrek Ashgabat Quchan Shahrud Mashhad Gorgan Babol Sarakhs Semnan Reserve Division Mary 7 6 Gonbad-e Kavas Reserve Division Sari 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 5 75 km Torbat
Iran COA: H+72 Axis of attack Strikes of ground forces 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 2 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 1 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 3 4 Ezserum Gyzyletrek 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 5 Ashgabat 7 6 Gonbad-e Kavas Sari Babol Shahrud Russian Mech Inf Division Quchan Mashhad Gorgan Reserve Division Sarakhs Semnan 75 km Mary Torbat
Blue Force COA: H+96 Axis of attack Strikes on ground forces 1 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Nebitdag Turkmenbashy 2 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE Cheleken 3 1 Mech BDE + 1 Inf BN Gyzylarbat 4 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BDE 5 1 Mech + 1 Inf BDE 6 1 Arty BDE + 1 Inf BN 2 1 3 Ezserum 6 Gonbad-e Kavas Babol Ashgabat 4 Gyzyletrek Sari 7 1 Armor + 1 Mech BDE 5 Russian Mech Inf Division 7 Quchan Gorgan Reserve Division Shahrud Sarakhs Mashhad Semnan 75 km Mary Torbat
Blue Force Sortie Allocation/Day SEAD Defensive CA First 24 hours 120 144 96 24 24 to 48 hours 120 72 120 192 24 48 to 72 hours 72 72 48 336 96 72 to 96 hours 72 72 32 352 96 Offensive CA * Does not include Longbow helo missions ** Includes B-52 s from Diego Garcia Close Air Support* Strategic Attack**
Blue Force Target Priorities Day Pt Iranian Ground Units Defense/ Iranian WMD Unit Unit Reserve SAMs* Airfields Sites** 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Unit First 24 hours 1 (PD) 2 3 8 9 6 7 5 4 10 --- 24 to 48 hours 1 (both) 3 2 7 8 4 9 6 5 --- 10 48 to 72 hours 4 (area) 8 1 2 5 3 8 7 9 --- 6 72 to 96 hours 4 (area) 10 1 2 3 5 8 7 9 --- 6 * SA-10 B systems are defending Iranian airfields at Sari, Shahrud, and Mashhad the three primary airfields to attack via offensive counter-air missions ** WMD sites will be attacked only when SOF forces indicate chem/bio weapons are being moved Detailed target priority and ISR collection lists are found in separate spreadsheets