
947c44738472459781a974c615397dac.ppt
- Количество слайдов: 21
Carbon Management: A State Energy R&D Perspective Terry Surles California Energy Commission AAAS National Meeting Symposium on Carbon Management San Francisco, California February 17, 2001 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Carbon Management: An Approach for Integrated Energy Systems Management Carbon Management Decarbonization Efficiency -operational - “clean energy” Sequestration - DSM - end use CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Why Worry about Energy? (Circa 12/98) Petroleum selling at < $11/barrel u Proven natural gas reserves at 175 Tcf and $2/MBtu u Abundant supply has depressed uranium prices (< $80/kg U) u There is a lot of cheap coal (~$26/ton) u Lots of generating capacity and reserve margin u CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
We’re Concerned Now u u u Oil is at $30/barrel Natural gas price is at $18/Mbtu and demand (at least temporarily) is depleting reserves Energy use impacts global commons (7. 4 Gt C/yr. in 1997) Deregulation has changed playing field New regulations and international policies Regional reserve margins are problematic CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California’s Concerns are Similar in Some Areas Increased natural gas use u Continuing need for improvements in demand-side energy technologies u Aging fleet of generators u Financial constraints u Climate change uncertainties u NIMBY u “Needle peaks” u CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California Context: Additional Factors Demographics u High-technology industrial sectors u Social values u Air quality u Water availability and quality u Seismic u In-state R&D excellence u CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
CA Energy Use by Sector (1996) 13% 46% 31% CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Production of Electricity by Source - 1996 Wind/solar-0. 0004% Imports Wind/solar- 1. 5% Biomass/waste- 2. 3% Oil- 0. 3% Geothermal- 0. 2% NG-15. 5% Imports- 1. 1% Hydro- 32. 6% Oil- 2. 2% Coal- 51. 9% 8. 4% 17. 9% Imports Natural 30. 6% Gas 18. 9% 15. 4% 8% Hydro 10. 6% 21. 7% 55. 8% Nat Gas Hydro Nuclear Coal 258, 801 GWh 3, 111, 441 GWh CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Megawatts Peak Demand is Increasing Faster than Newly Installed Capacity CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
in California Number of Power Emergencies Rising Peak Demand Threatens Reliability and Power Quality *During “no touch” periods, the ISO demands that generators refrain from downtime for maintenance CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Market Clearing Price ($/Megawatt-hour) Market Uncertainty- Price Volatility Impacts Energy Delivery and Use CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Contribution to ISO Peak Demand August 16, 2001 (MW) MW 6000 5000 6000 26, 509 Commercial AC Commercial Lighting Residential AC Other CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
2000/2001 Shocks Have Made Energy a Priority u AB 970 w w u AB 995 w u u Expedited Siting for Simple Peaking Facilities and Facilities that Pose No Significant Environmental Risk Implementation of $50 M Energy Efficiency Grant Program Extends Surcharge to Fund Public Purpose Efficiency, Renewables, and R&D Programs for 10 years SB 1298: ARB to Establish Standards for DG Technologies SB 1345: Grants to Purchasers of Solar and DG Systems SB 1771: Establishes Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory New Legislation and Executive Orders CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
California has Established a $62 M/yr Public Interest Energy Research Program (PIER) California’s Energy Future Economy: Affordable Solutions Quality: Reliable and Available Environment: Protect and Enhance CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Funded Program Areas to Date (in millions) Supply Renewables, EPAG $26. 4 Demand Buildings, Ind/Ag/Water $40. 1 $34. 9 Strategic, Environmental CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Attributes for Addressing State Issues Program Integration Balanced Technology Portfolio -Temporal Technology Partnerships - Universities - Industry - Federal Focus on California - Specific to State needs -Technology -Risk CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Our R&D Program must Address Future Market Scenario Regulated • New energy systems Status Quo • Same players Centralized De-centralized • Same energy systems Supermarket of Choices • New players De-regulated CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Given Our Limited Budget and California Characteristics, We’re Not Going to. . . u u u Build the next GCM or other large scale models Work on Generation IV nuclear technologies Work on most Vision 21 coal technologies Duplicate other efforts well-funded by DOE, EPRI and others Duplicate specific R&D already funded by industry CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
We will Couple the California Context with Precepts of Carbon Management u End-use efficiency and demand-side technologies w w w u Clean technologies w w u buildings and appliance technologies manufacturing, agriculture, water efficiency storage and conversion technologies renewables and small-scale fossil generation and control technologies that enhance environment power conditioning new technologies with collateral benefits Enabling technology improvement and development w w development of sensors, models, systems for real-time pricing models, sensors, monitoring systems to improve T&D system operation and integration of DG science base and model improvements to evaluate impacts of energy systems development of new integrated systems and economic models to improve understanding of deregulated market structure CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Carbon Management and California: An Appropriate Paradigm for State R&D Program Environment Couple state and external issues Economy Reliability Long-term solutions couple to current events Integration with external R&D provides flexibility CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
Carbon Management: An Umbrella for Global, National, State and Local Issues Local - End use Global - Climate Change - Resource Competition - NIMBY Nation - Security - Environment State - Economy -Affordability - Environment - Reliability CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
947c44738472459781a974c615397dac.ppt