Capturing the Green Jobs Opportunity Joel Rogers UW-Madison, COWS, CSI, MIP, GLSC, Apollo, G 4 A EARN, Las Vegas, December 9, 2008
What I’ll talk about 1. What are green jobs? How do we improve them in state policy? 2. How dirty and inefficient our current energy generation and use is, and why efficiency’s progressive 3. An easy place to start
Skepticism welcome
Blinding self-concern not
I made some slides for you
Like this slide.
And this one.
I wonder about Power. Point.
Power corrupts.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Absolute Power. Point just can’t be good.
The end of the Anthropocene? • 8 M BC-1780, CO 2 in atmosphere was steady (give or take 10 parts per million) at ~ 280 ppm • Increased 35 ppm over next 150 yrs (1930 s), 15 ppm over next 40 yrs (1970 s), 20 ppm over next 20 (199 ~ 0 s), 20 ppm over next ten (2005) • CO 2 is 385 ppm today (2008) • At present rates of growth, it should reach 500 ppm before midcentury • Last time that happened was the Eocene period, 50 million years ago, when sea levels were 300 feet higher than today • Global warming already associated with massive ice cap melting, extreme weather, crop collapse, population migration
700 The last 160, 000 years and the next 100 years CO 2 in 2100 (w/BAU) 600 CO 2 in 2050 (with business as usual) CO 2 concentration (ppmv) 400 CO 2 now 300 Degrees Celsius 10 200 0 – 10 160 120 80 40 Time (thousands of years) Now 100 CO 2 PPMV Temperature difference from now °C 500
Green jobs: what’s real and what’s not and how to improve
What are “green jobs”? 1. “Green” is work devoted to climate mitigation or adaptation or, more broadly, to improving productive use of natural capital 2. “Green jobs” (GJs) are either actual jobs devoted to these tasks either wholly (close to zero) or partly (soon, virtually all) or FTEs devoted wholly to them 3. Even on an FTE basis, most GJs look a lot like current jobs. The difference lies less in their technologies, materials, or skills than in what those are used for. 4. This said, there are clusters of characteristic, or expected, green job activity that will require some reordering and reframing of skills transfer
GJ estimates in energy Today Projected in 2030 Source: Bezdek (MISI)/ASES
GJ jobs in misc related sectors Source: PERI & CAP
RE jobs per Project Investment U. S. Total New MW Number of Firms Investment (Millions) New FTE Jobs Wind 124, 900 16, 480 $62, 338 398, 470 Solar 23, 150 10, 272 $69, 624 298, 194 Geothermal 15, 190 3, 926 $15, 330 72, 324 Biomass 21, 760 12, 020 $13, 248 81, 615 185, 000 42, 698 $160, 540 850, 603 Total: Source: REPP
Potential RE MFG by state Location Firms (total) Wind (millions) Solar (millions) Geothermal Biomass (millions) Total (millions) California 5, 409 $5, 449. 50 $12, 115. 90 $2, 181. 10 $1, 165. 30 $20, 911. 80 Texas 3, 358 $3, 977. 70 $7, 237. 80 $906. 90 $1, 093. 70 $13, 216. 10 New York 1, 925 $3, 297. 10 $3, 451. 60 $2, 005. 20 $1, 178. 40 $9, 932. 30 Illinois 2, 289 $4, 406. 50 $3, 231. 50 $592. 40 $613. 60 $8, 844. 00 Ohio 2, 465 $4, 431. 90 $2, 201. 60 $1, 023. 00 $744. 00 $8, 400. 50 Pennsylvania 2, 188 $3, 061. 10 $3, 428. 20 $738. 80 $689. 80 $7, 917. 90 Indiana 1, 321 $3, 779. 30 $1, 342. 20 $610. 10 $531. 40 $6, 263. 00 Wisconsin 1, 331 $3, 729. 20 $991. 50 $357. 20 $451. 30 $5, 529. 20 Michigan 2, 050 $3, 452. 50 $1, 255. 60 $271. 50 $348. 80 $5, 328. 40 North Carolina 1, 096 $1, 785. 00 $2, 242. 80 $647. 80 $588. 20 $5, 263. 80 South Carolina 488 $2, 253. 00 $839. 20 $1, 512. 90 $559. 40 $5, 164. 50 Massachusetts 1, 193 $1, 235. 40 $2, 687. 20 $286. 90 $214. 00 $4, 423. 50 Source: REPP
A modest estimate on RE Source: Kammen, Kapadia, and Fripp, 2006
Wind Production jobs Occupation Training 25 H 25 A MH MA Team assemblers* Moderate-term on-the-job training 10. 41 21, 650 12. 81 26, 640 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand* Short-term on-the-job training 10. 45 21, 740 12. 95 26, 940 Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic Moderate-term on-the-job training 11. 88 24, 710 15. 54 32, 320 Moderate-term on-the-job training 12. 16 25, 290 14. 34 29, 830 Moderate-term on-the-job training 12. 86 26, 740 17. 45 36, 290 Customer service representatives* Moderate-term on-the-job training 13. 70 28, 490 16. 81 34, 970 Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers* Postsecondary vocational award 14. 24 29, 620 17. 35 36, 080 Production, planning, and expediting clerks* Moderate-term on-the-job training 14. 50 30, 150 19. 41 40, 370 Machinists* Long-term on-the-job training 14. 74 30, 650 17. 72 36, 870 Maintenance and repair workers, general Moderate-term on-the-job training 16. 03 33, 350 19. 39 40, 330 Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic Drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic Source: COWS
Energy Efficiency Jobs Occupation Training 25 H 25 A MH MA Construction laborers* Moderate-term on-the-job training 10. 24 21, 310 12. 82 26, 670 Sheet metal workers* Long-term on-the-job training 10. 48 21, 800 13. 57 28, 230 Insulation workers, floor, ceiling, and wall* Moderate-term on-the-job training 11. 37 23, 660 18. 45 38, 370 Cement masons and concrete finishers* Moderate-term on-the-job training 12. 66 26, 340 16. 24 33, 780 Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers* Long-term on-the-job training 12. 75 26, 530 15. 32 31, 860 Hazardous materials removal workers* Moderate-term on-the-job training 12. 88 26, 780 16. 52 34, 370 Carpenters* Long-term on-the-job training 13. 58 28, 250 17. 39 36, 180 Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters* Long-term on-the-job training 13. 84 28, 780 18. 38 38, 240 Electricians* Long-term on-the-job training 14. 76 30, 700 18. 10 37, 650 Boilermakers* Long-term on-the-job training 19. 09 39, 710 24. 42 50, 800 Source: COWS
Bio. Fuels Production Jobs Occupation Training Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand* Short-term on-the-job training Mixing and blending machine setters, operators, and tenders* 25 H 25 A MH MA 9. 94 20, 670 13. 01 27, 070 Moderate-term on-the-job training 11. 80 24, 550 15. 00 31, 190 Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks* Short-term on-the-job training 12. 56 26, 120 15. 66 32, 570 Separating, filtering, clarifying, precipitating, and still machine setters, operators, and tenders* Moderate-term on-the-job training 14. 17 29, 480 18. 43 38, 330 15. 34 31, 910 19. 10 39, 730 16. 08 33, 440 20. 74 43, 150 Chemical equipment operators and tenders Moderate-term on-the-job training Chemical technicians* Associate's degree 17. 70 36, 810 21. 89 45, 530 Chemical plant and system operators Long-term on-the-job training 20. 25 42, 120 24. 72 51, 410 Postsecondary vocational training 22. 38 46, 540 26. 02 54, 110 Work Experience in related occupation 24. 24 50, 410 33. 97 70, 660 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer* Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment* Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products* Source: COWS/BLS
How to capture the GJ opportunity 1. Map your economy, identify competitive advantage or local demand, maintain real-time data on demand, wages, skills needs, etc. 2. Make public training responsive to but not bullied by existing employer demand; upgrade that demand using any tools you have, including regulation, subsidies, standards, etc. 3. Require local benefit, credentialing and transferability and recognition of skills, career ladders 4. Build an industry, not just project demand
A career ladder
How dirty and wasteful we are, and why improving that will help the poor
Dirty generation
Measure for measure • • • A quad is a quadrillion BTUs 1. 0 Btu = 252 calories 1 Btu/hour = 0. 293 W 3. 413 Btu/hr = 1. 0 watt 1 Quad/hour = 293, 000, 000 W = 293, 000 g. W or 293 million m. W 1 Quad = 170 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe)
U. S. energy flows (1)
US energy flows (2)
Efficiency is the first fuel Source: ACEEE
Cheap and getting cheaper 10. 00 IGCC w/o CCS 9. 0 Wind @ 29% CF Cents per KWh 8. 0 7. 0 NGCC Biomass 6. 0 5. 0 Pulverized Coal w/o CCS 4. 0 Nuclear Energy Efficiency 3. 0 0 10 20 30 Price of carbon per ton 40 50 Source: ACEEE
Good financial returns
Building energy consumption • About $400 B annually • About 50 percent savings available on “simple” costeffective basis (i. e. , lifetime energy savings from efficiency measures exceed their purchase, installation, and maintenance costs) • That’s a lot of money
Benefits of building energy retrofits • • • Income to tenants and owners Climate and public health Extended building life and higher property values Tenant/occupant health and productivity Non-offshorable employment, at about 12. 5 person years of employment per $1 M invested
Median household consumption
“Drive ’til you qualify” Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology and National Housing Policy Center, 2007
Gains from one less car Source: ICF International, 2007
Comprehensive urban building retrofits as a project
U. S. sources of CO 2 Building contribution to CO 2 emissions Transportation 32% Residential 21% Buildings 43% Commercial 17% Industrial 5% Industry 25% Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Rebuilding America? 131. 4 billion new square feet 213. 4 billion new square feet of built space 82. 0 billion new square feet from replacement 295. 6 billion square feet in 2000 Source: Nelson, “Toward a new Metropolis” 427. 3 billion square feet in 2030
100 US Metros
Why cities are great • • • Big population with associated buying power Strategic location and regional linkages Population and firm density, with agglomeration effects, complementary skill sets, associated innovation Infrastructure (ports, airports, other transportation networks) Higher wages/productivity Lower waste Centers for research, education, health care, “knowledge” economy, finance, business services, hospitality, etc. More diverse, tolerant, attractive to youth and immigrants More progressive in politics More easily organized
The riddle of unclaimed value
Benefits of building energy retrofits • • • Income to tenants and owners Climate and public health Extended building life and higher property values Tenant/occupant health and productivity Non-offshorable employment, at about 12. 5 person years of employment per $1 M invested
RRIDDLLS • • Regulatory surround is bad (efficiency not encouraged) Risk aversion among tenants and owners, especially given uncertain duration of tenancy/ownership Information problems on everything (benefits, cost, reliable service) Disaggregated savings Disruption Lack of capital Lack of interest Split incentives (tenants vs. owners, developers vs. owners)
An offer they can’t refuse? E 2 will buy and install cost-effective energy-efficiency measures in your home or business with no up-front payment from you and no new debt obligation. The cost of this service included, your net energy bill should drop immediately and always be lower than it would have been without E 2 participation. Your service obligation ends when you quit this property and is suspended during any period of measure malfunction, which we will repair at no cost to you.
Solving the riddle
Sample utility bill Your expected (pre-E 2 -participation) energy bill $170 Your energy consumption this month E 2 service charge You owe $135 $ 25 $160
Future utility bill Your expected (pre-E 2 -participation) energy bill $170 This month’s energy consumption Demand response savings credit Negawatts credit forward capacity Climate exchange credit Energy sold back to grid $135 ($ 30) Your net energy bill this month E 2 service charge You owe $ 15 $ 25 $ 40
High leverage Energy costs for 2, 252, 800 Wisconsin households Total cost of residential energy (gas, electricity, fuel oil, propane) consumption Average monthly cost per household 20% savings $4, 572, 463, 104 $914, 492, 621 $169. 14 $33. 83 Available capital under Me 2 -styled program Average available capital per household if amortized over 10 yrs at 6% interest and $33. 83/month Total available capital (2, 252, 800 X $3, 047) $3, 047 $6, 864, 281, 600 Current direct WI public spending on residential energy efficiency ~ $70 M Ratio of available capital under Me 2 -styled program to current WI public spending ~ 100/1
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