CAPRI-Dynaspat Project CAPRI Second Project Workshop Prague 11

CAPRI-Dynaspat Project CAPRI Second Project Workshop Prague, 11. and 12. April 2004 Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 1

Introduction CAPRI • Thanks to the Prague team for hosting us • A busy year for CAPRI: negotiations and start of SEAMLESS, unforeseen IPTS project, demand from the commission … • … and a quite successful start for our project: – East expansion much further then expected (model runs on preliminary data for EU 27. . ) Excellent co-operation on GIS-link between JRC and Bonn – Regular optimistic signals on energy and labor … but still a lot to do and discuss … Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 2

CAPRI Current project with CAPRI • 3 “Specific Targeted Research Projects”: – CAPRI-Dynaspat – Eu-Med-Agpol trade liberalization with Mediterrean countries (3/2004 -3/2007) – Merco. Pol trade liberalization with South American countries (4/2005 -4/2008) • 2 “Integrated projects” – Seamless (Bonn, LEI, IAMM) – Sensor (LEI, The Hague) • Project for IPTS Sevilla (Bonn, FAL) Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 3

Developments CAPRI Seamless/IPTS ? Hydrological Models Farm Types Sensor Alternative Land uses Improved Market Model CAPRI DNDC Landscape Dynaspat GIS-Link CAPRI Modeling System Labor Dynaspat East Expansion Dynaspat Energy Recursive Dynamic Eu-Med. Agpol/Merco. Pol /Seamless Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 4

CAPRI Developments cntd. CAPRI • CAPRI is since October 2004 installed in DG-AGRI • First results presented, with in some cases surprisingly good results • Decision to use CAPRI for baseline publication in early summer Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 5

CAPRI Bonn: Organisation CAPRI-Dynaspat CAPRI Co-ordination & Training of partners, Overall model design, Recursive-Dynamic version, scenario analysis Prague: East expansion of CAPRI Ispra: GIS link, bio-phyiscal model for Green House Gas Emissions, Landscape indicator Galway: Labour projections and labour demand Tänikon: Energy use indicator Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 6

Overview on tasks CAPRI • Regular updates, reference run, scenario writing and impact analysis – – – • Regular updates of the data base (WP 1) Reference runs (WP 2) Yearly scenario analysis (WP 3) Methodological Improvements of the existing modelling system – – – • CAPRI Dynamic version of supply module (WP 4) Dynamic version of market module (WP 5) Employment module (WP 7) Improved environmental indicators and link to a Geographical Information system for landscape assessment – – • Energy use indicator (WP 6) CAPRI GIS Link (WP 8) Landscape indicator (WP 9) Greenhouse gas process model link (WP 10) Preparation for East Expansion – – CAPRI east expansion pilot study (WP 11) CAPRI east epxansion network (WP 12) Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 7

CAPRI-Dynaspat: WPs Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 CAPRI 8

CAPRI Regular updates, reference run, scenarios CAPRI • Download latest available data from Euro. Stat, DG-AGRI, FAO • Reconcile data base: – fill gaps – remove inconsistencies – re-estimate input allocation • Check for new projections (FAPRI/DG-AGRI/FAO) and revise reference run • Contact DG-AGRI, define scenarios, run model and perform impact analysis Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 9

CAPRI Methodological improvements CAPRI • Switch from comparative static (= long run equilibrium) to recursive-dynamic version (=show adjustment path) • Re-estimate non-linear cost functions with adjustment costs, embed annual herd size for cattle • Introduce partial adjustment model in the market model • Employment module (projection + link to activities) Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 10

CAPRI Environmental indicators CAPRI • Introduce „engineering factors“ for energy use in agricultural activities => energy indicator • GIS link develop distribution algorithm from NUTS II results to grid (econometrics, data on climate, soil, elevation etc. necessary at NUTS II/grid level) • Bio-Phyiscal process model for GHG requires GIS link • Landscape indicators Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 11

CAPRI East expansion CAPRI • „Pilot study“: full regionalization of CZ, PL and HU • Document proceeding to ensure that process can be repeated (in an improved manner) in the remaining MS • Build up a network of suitable contacts in the new MS to apply and maintain CAPRI Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 12

Agenda for the meeting CAPRI • Monday: Status and outlook WP 1 -3 6 -10: – Results achieved – Discussion and decisions on next steps • Tuesday morning: Hotspot on East expansion – – Short overview on WP 4+5 (recursive dynamic version) Where do we stand Next steps What avenues for the different WPs regarding EU-10? • Tuesday afternoon: Project management – – Reporting Deliverables Web-page Further co-operation, visits. . Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 13

CAPRI END Prague Meeting CAPRI-Dynaspat, 11. /12. April 2005 14