Canadian Report GODAE Ocean View Science Team June

Canadian Report GODAE Ocean View Science Team June 2009 Fraser Davidson (1), Hal Ritchie (4, 6) Greg Smith(1, 4), Andry Ratsimandresy(1), Debbie Anne Power (1) Adam Lundrigan (1), Charles Hannah (2), Frederic Dupont (2), Dan Wright (2), Maud Guaracino (2), Denis Lefaivre (3), Pierre Pellerin(4), Mark Buehner (4), Lt. Darryl Williams (5) Keith Thompson (6) (1) DFO-Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, St. John's, NL, Canada (2) DFO-Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada (3) DFO-Institute Maurice Lamontagne, Mont-Joli, QU, Canada (4) EC-Meteorological Research Division, Dorval, QU, Canada (5) National Defence, METOC, Halifax, NS, Canada (6) Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental Predic. Tion Systems CONCEPTS • MOU among 3 Government Departments • No $ • Provides ability to obtain funding • Short term (projects) • Long term (budgeted development) Secretariat provided by Marty Taillefer DFO and Pierre Pellerin CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

CONCEPTS: CORE PROJECTS Project 1: Core CMC Systems Installation Install common core ocean model configurations at Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) for collaborative projects, evaluations and coupling with GEM atmospheric model, coupled data assimilation, examine potential implementation for operational use. Project 2: Basin-to-Global Ocean Reanalyses Canada-Mercator Contribution to CONCEPTS Validate and improve the ocean component of the basin-global modelling and assimilation system being developed for use by CONCEPTS and Mercator. Project 3: Regional Ocean Prediction: C-NOOFS Canada-Newfoundland Operational Ocean Forecasting System Project 4: Sea Ice Modelling and Data Assimilation CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

CONCEPTS: PROJECTS OF INTERESTS 1. Ocean Data assimilation, GOAPP (Keith Thompson) 2. Spaceborne Ocean Intelligence Network (Darryl Williams) 3. DRDC (A) Requirements and Initiatives (John Osler) 4. Coupled models for the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Lefaivre & Pellerin) CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

NEMO Applications in Canada • • • Global -- BIO, RPNE, Dalhousie, U Quebec Montreal North Atlantic -- BIO, Dalhousie North Pacific -- IOS, Royal Military College Arctic and CAA -- BIO-CIS-Mercator, U Alberta North-western Atlantic -- CNOOFS, Dalhousie, Memorial Gulf of St. Lawrence-Scotian Shelf-Gulf of Maine -- BIO, Dalhousie • Gulf of St. Lawrence -- BIO, U Quebec Rimouski • Great Lakes -- NWRI/RPNE, BIO CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

CONCEPTS Project 1 & 2 Validation and analysis of the ¼-deg global NEMO-CONCEPTS* ocean model Francois Roy(1), Youyu Lu(2), Jean-Marc Belanger(3), Hal Ritchie(3), Greg Smith(4) 1 - Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada 2 - Ocean Sciences Division, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Fisheries and Oceans Canada 3 - Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada 4 - Biological and Physical Oceanography Section, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada A partnership of EC, DFO, DND, GOAPP and MERCATOR-OCEAN CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Two global ocean configurations for core project 1: ¼-deg; 1 -deg Status: ¼-deg tested for 6 -yr spin-up; 10 -day forecast; 1 -yr simulation 1 -deg model tested for multi-decade simulations; 1 -deg model being coupled to 100 km GEM; Validation and process studies CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

CMC global ¼ deg 1 year model run NEMO 3 -LIM 2 - ¼ deg ORCA 025 - 50 vertical levels (1 m surface layer) Atmospheric forcing from global GEM at 35 km resolution (Ua, Va, Ta, Ha, SW, LW) CORE bulk formulas from Large and Yeager (2004) Initial conditions: MERCATOR-OCEAN PSY 3 V 2 (T, S, U, V, April 18, 2007) SSS restoring to yearly climatology + No SST restoring • 1 Year simulation 1 (S 3): 3 -hourly forcing • 1 Year simulation 2 (S 24): 24 h-av. forcing CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

S 3 1 Year simulation: sensitivity to atmospheric forcing SSH yearly standard deviation (using 20 outputs per day, close to hourly) S 3 – S 24 CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status 3 hour wind forcing - 24 hour wind forcing

S 3 Yearly simulations: sensitivity to atmospheric forcing Yearly averaged surface circulation in ms-1 (first 5 m) S 3 – S 24 CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Wind energy input to oceanic near inertial motions: S 3 Initial estimates based for April 18 -30, 2007 High energy flux associated with synoptic storms • Further analyses to reveal seasonal cycle • Comparison to be made with semi-analytic solution CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Theme 1 and 2: Conclusion NEMO 3 -LIM 2 with GEM forcing produces a realistic seasonal cycle without major SST drift A non-persistent warm bias occurs during the summers of the north and south hemispheres (slightly reduced with 3 -hourly forcing) Significant variability in SST is added with 3 -hourly forcing (diurnal cycle) SSH variability is increased in coastal areas with 3 -hourly forcing and the distribution of meso-scale eddies is changed CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Future work Verification with in situ and satellite derived data Work to explain the summer warm bias More global diagnostics Sensitivity tests to flux parameterization (CORE, GEM physics, …) and TKE parameters Adding MERCATOR data assimilation system Pseudo-operational 10 day forecasts using GEM forcing Two-way coupling of NEMO with GEM referenced to PSY 3 V 2 CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

1º Global Ocean Model & Decadal Simulation Model: Horizontal: Global tri-polar grids; Nominal resolution 1° in lat/long; Meridional refinement in tropics; Vertical: 46 vertical NEMO 2. 3 GOAPP Simulations: 10 -yr spinup with CORE Normal Year forcing CONTROL: CORE forcing 1958 -2004 HEAT: wind stress set to Normal Year WIND: buoyancy forcing set to Normal Year MJO: wind stress = Normal Year + MJO CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Sea-Level Trend 1993 -2004 (m/yr) Obs Model ¼o

Forcing sensitivity 1/4º model Wind Heat

Inter-Annual Sea-Level RMS 1993 -2004 (m) 1/4º model Obs Model

Forcing sensitivity 1/4º model Wind Heat

Summary • Global 1º model able to reproduce large-scale SSH changes during altimeter era • Wind stress changes are primary cause of SSH trend and RMS at low and mid latitudes; • • impacts of buoyancy forcing mainly show at high latitudes 1º NEMO is being coupled to 100 km GEM; expected to be a good tool for study/prediction of intraseasonal/seasonal variations

C-NOOFS CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

C-NOOFS system V 0 MERCATOR Global Output Weekly CMC WIND Fixed BC’s NEMO v 2. 3 T, S, U, V, W Data products / plotting Every 24 hr Initial State C-NOOFS Webpage www. c-noofs. gc. ca

C-NOOFS system V 1 MERCATOR Global Output Weekly 1/4 RESTART FILE Time varying BC’s CMC T, Q, QSW, QLW, precip CMC WIND NEMO LIM 2* BULK T, S, U, V, W, ice, SSH 1/12 th NEMO LIM 2* BULK T, S, U, V, W, ice, SSH Data products / plotting Obser vations Validation Monitoring Diagnostics Monitoring Validation M vs M M vs O Ocean View Of The day www. c-noofs. gc. ca

Effects of resolution on Model and Observation 1/4 Observations Bonavista Bay line 2004 07 CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 1/12 CTD stations~20 km C-NOOFS status ADCP (hr) CTD Sea Island line 2008 12 19

Configuration name Operational since Resolu tion Initial Condition Boundary Condition Wind Forcing Other forcing fields Coupled ice model NWA 025 -v 0 Sept. 2008 ¼° Daily mean MERCATORPSY 3 V 2 forecast Fixed to I. C. GEM Climatology None NWA 12 -v 0 Dec. 2008 – Jan. 2009 1/12° Daily mean MERCATORPSY 3 V 2 forecast Fixed to I. C. GEM Climatology None NWA 025 -v 1 May 2009 ¼° MERCATORPSY 3 V 2 analysis Daily mean MERCATORPSY 3 V 2 forecasts GEM LIM 2 NWA 12 -v 1 July. 2009 1/12° MERCATORPSY 2 V 1 analysis Daily mean MERCATORPSY 3 V 2 forecasts GEM LIM 2 NWA 025 -v 2 Apr. 2010 ¼° CNOOFS assimilation system (based on SAM 2) CMC global ocean forecasts using SAM 2 GEM Not yet decided (LIM 2, LIM 3, CICE) CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS Overview C-NOOFS status

• Observations to be assimilated V 2 Sea level anomalies : – AVISO SSALTO/DUACS • Jason (2 cm), ENVISAT and GFO (3. 5 cm) • Near-coast representivity error • Mean dynamic topography : – Rio et al. , 2005 (~5 cm rms error) • Sea surface temperature : – NCEP SST RTG (~0. 7 C) • In situ profile T and S data : – E. g. Argo, XBT, TAO, CTD, … – CORIOLIS (Brest) – Quality Controlled by CLS (Toulouse) CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Forecast Viewer • Open access to archive of static images of SSH and 3 D T, S and currents CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 http: //www. c-noofs. gc. ca/viewer/ C-NOOFS status

CNOOFS Dynamic Quick-view Webpage www. c-noofs. gc. ca: 8080/nc. WMS/godiva 2. html • Uses Godiva 2 viewer (from RESC) • Uses Open. Layers to quickly and easily visualize data • User-defined options for colour scale and animations • Capability to create overlays in kmz format for use in geobrowsers (e. g. Google. Earth) CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

C-NOOFS Monitoring/Validation System • Evaluation against: – – AVISO satellite altimetry (SSH) CMC Sea surface temperature analyses CMC sea ice concentration analyses Argo and other in situ data (coming soon…) • For each data type: – maps of differences – RMS error versus forecast lead time – Mean error versus forecast lead time CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Evaluation NWA 025 V 1 against AVISO SSH for May 13, 2009 1 -day lead time 3 -day lead time 6 -day lead time 10 -day lead time CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status RMS difference Mean difference

Evaluation NWA 025 V 1 against CMC SST for May 13, 2009 1 -day lead time 6 -day lead time V 1 CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 3 -day lead time RMS difference 10 -day lead time Mean difference V 0 C-NOOFS status PSY 3

Future developments and plans C-NOOFS 1 -2 • Implementation of NWA 12 -v 1 to be done this summer • Optimization of SAM 2 v 1 assimilation system for Northwest Atlantic: – – Ability to deal with tides High-resolution SST track data Improvement of error modes for Labrador Sea Assimilation of seal and other additional in situ data sources – Sea ice assimilation – Produce analyses daily CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Future developments and plans C-NOOFS 2 -2 • Model improvements: – – Update to NEMOv 3. 2 Add tides (variable volume) Upgrade ice model (LIM 2 -EVP, LIM 3 or CICE) Optimization of ocean and ice physics • Detailed validation studies, e. g. : – Iceberg tracking – Drifters – Argo, seals, … • All in situ data we can put our hands on! • Observation quality control CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Sea-Ice Data Assimilation Project • Project Goal: to develop an automated ice analysis system for: • • • Canadian Ice Service (CIS): ice concentration, thickness/type distribution, pressure, strength and edge, deformed ice at ~1 -2 km resolution NWP: ice concentration, thickness, albedo, surface emissivity at ~5 km resolution Benefit from experience with variational and ensemble-based assimilation for NWP: • • use variational approach: incremental 3 D-FGAT (first guess at appropriate time) Developed initial prototype analysis system using CIS ice-ocean model for Canadian east-coast plan to port system to other models/regions: • • Canadian Arctic archipelago region (IPY project, Polar-GEM) Gulf of St. Lawrence (coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model developed at RPN/IML) CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

Experiments with east coupled iceocean model • Goal: evaluate 3 D-Var approach relative to nudging approach as currently used at CIS • Configuration: – Assimilate partial concentration of 24 ice thickness categories from CIS daily ice charts – Tests with additionally assimilating CIS Radar. SAT image analyses – Experimental period: 5 Dec 2006 - 30 Jun 2007 • Forecast verification in terms of total concentration and effective ice thickness (forecast minus observation) – Only where the 1970 -2000 weekly sea ice climatology indicates a non-zero probability of ice

Canadian east coast model (CIOM) • Multicategory sea-ice model coupled to the Princeton ocean model (Yao et al. , JGR 2000). • Viscous plastic sea-ice rheology (Hibler, JGR 1979). • GEM model atmospheric forcing every 3 hours. • Grid resolution: 1/5º longitude x 1/6º latitude, 16 sigma levels. • Originially developed by Charles Tang at BIO 48 -h forecast

East coast 3 D-Var experiments: Example Background Estimate (24 h forecast) Observations (CIS Daily Ice Chart) Analysis (initialize next forecast)

Total ice concentration error Std. Dev } small differences among data assimilation experiments } large improvement vs. persistence

ARTIC MODEL March Sea-ice velocity for the last year of a 10 year run 1º model with OMIP forcing The model consistently overestimates ice velocities which influences the sea ice distribution. The reasons for the overestimations are not yet clear.

Future developments: Usage of “nesting” approach NEMO’s AGRIF allows 2 -way nesting Potentially useful for CAA, e. g. , 1º global + 1/4º CAA 1/2º Arctic + 1/8º CAA (2 -3 km) BIO-RPN-CIS collaboration in planning Should be coordinated with CICE & I-DA developments

So Where Are We Going? • Global Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Ice Forecasting System • Regional Eastern Canada Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Ice Forecasting System GEM / NEMO Research Direction – 1 way nest with MERCATOR – 10 day forecasting Downscaling Ocean Only Vs Coupled • Ice • Service Ice Assimilation vs Altimetry Assimilation – Agrif zoom CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status

GODAE Future • International group helps focus national research & development • Opportunity for synergies • Much needed collaboration – Through Working Groups CMOS, Kelowna BC, May 2008 C-NOOFS status