Campus Crime Mapping and Analysis Steven R Hick

Campus Crime Mapping and Analysis Steven R. Hick University of Denver College and University Police and Investigators Conference July 31 - August 2, 2012 Hyatt Fairfax Crime Mapping & Analysis

About me… • • GIS Director and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Denver, teaching several geographic information science courses and directing academic GIS activities including the Certificate of Advanced Study in GIS program and the Master’s of Science degree in Geographic Information Science both online and on campus. Partner in Justice Research Associates, LLC. - Linking Justice Systems Volunteer with crime analysis unit in Denver Police Department. Former instructor in crime mapping and analysis program in the National Law Enforcement and Corrections Technology Center, a National Institute of Justice program housed at the University of Denver. Crime Mapping & Analysis

Housekeeping Items • As a courtesy, please turn off your cell phones. Everybody always says this. I say if your phone goes off you contribute $5 to the happy hour fund. Crime Mapping & Analysis

Crime mapping & analysis abstract • In this presentation we will reveal the relationship between crime mapping and crime analysis and campus law enforcement, and take a closer look into other uses of GIS and applied research methods. We will discuss the role crime mapping and analysis could or should play in problem solving and campus policing. Geographic Information System (GIS) software will be used to provide a spectrum of function and applied problems, tactical and operational in nature, to adequately familiarize the session participant with campus crime mapping and analysis with GIS. The basics of geocoding addresses, creating pin maps, and analyzing crime patterns in time and space will be covered. Crime Mapping & Analysis 4

Learning outcomes – Recognize the strengths and weaknesses of Computer. Aided Dispatch (CAD) systems and Records Management Systems (RMS) and their role in providing data for crime mapping and analysis. – Understand the techniques necessary to analyze police data in time and space. – Understand the difference and role of tactical, strategic, and administrative crime analysis. – Identify several core crime theories and understand how they apply to crime mapping and analysis. Crime Mapping & Analysis 5

Welcome! Who are you and why are you here? • Introductions – Where are you from? – Name / Agency / Title – What do you do? – Crime mapping capability? Crime Mapping & Analysis 6

Session expectations? • What do you expect from this session? • What do you want to walk away with? • Objectives: • Clear understanding of crime mapping. • Crime mapping’s relationship to crime analysis & GIS. Crime Mapping & Analysis 7

Introduction to crime mapping and analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis

Informed Decision Making: The Role of Analysis in Operations & Management • GOAL: • Bridge the gap between decisionmaking and analysis In doing so, we need to answer: • Why and how does one go about conducting crime mapping & analysis? “Crime analysis should be to policing what market research is to business!” Crime Mapping & Analysis 9

Key questions… • • • What is GIS? What is crime mapping? What is crime analysis? What are the stages of the research process? What can I do with crime mapping and analysis? • What is needed to implement crime mapping and analysis? Crime Mapping & Analysis 10

What to remember? • GIS is a collection of people, hardware, software, and procedures to collect, store, retrieve, manipulate, analyze and display spatial data. A GIS is a Toolbox GIS is a set of tools for analyzing spatial data. Crime Mapping & Analysis 11

What is crime mapping? • Analytical tool for conducting: – – – Temporal Analysis (Time/Date) Spatial Analysis (Location/Patterns) Geographic Deployment Beat/District Boundary Configuration Criminal Profiling (Geographic Criminology) Crime Mapping & Analysis 12

Just a short history lesson… • Many parallels to computer technology and innovation through the 1980 s. • Adoption of GIS enhanced crime mapping and analysis gaining in popularity since the mid to late 1990 s. • Much innovation driven by the Mapping and Analysis for Public Safety (MAPS) program (US Dept. of Justice) during the last decade. – (Spencer Chainey and Jerry Ratcliffe. GIS and Crime Mapping, 2005. ) Crime Mapping & Analysis 13

Why is crime mapping so popular? • • COP POP INOP Weed and Seed SARA ICAM COMPSTAT Crime Mapping & Analysis POLICE QUIZ? 14

Crime mapping is popular today: • • • COP - Community Oriented Policing POP - Problem Oriented Policing INOP - Innovative Neighborhood Oriented Policing Operation Weed and Seed SARA - Problem Solving Model ICAM - Information Collection for Automated Mapping • COMPSTAT – computer statistics (NYPD) Crime Mapping & Analysis 15

Problem Solving • Proactive approach to policing • Looks to research methods for posing the right questions and getting the correct answers • Calls for creative/innovative solutions- beyond traditional police responses • Attempts to figure out what works and what doesn’t Crime Mapping & Analysis 16

S. A. R. A. model • • Scanning: Problem Identification Analyzing: In-depth Evaluation Responding: Designing & Implementing a Strategy Assessing: Evaluation of the Intended Effect – Linear versus Cyclical Agencies tend to drop the A’s” from the process! Crime Mapping & Analysis 17

COMPSTAT - NYPD Model • Management tool • Pros and Cons? • Accountability – Ability to account for – To hold accountable • Promotes collaboration – True team policing • Flexible allocation of resources • Vertical and horizontal approach • • Timeliness of data Community relations Intra-agency relations Effectiveness – 16 to 40% decline in crime rates – Question of causality • Publicity stunt • Leadership strength • “Broken Windows Theory” Crime Mapping & Analysis 18

Review: What can this technology do? • Highly sophisticated tool that can assess and display large volumes of data in a simplistic format critical to informed decision making (COMPSTAT & Resource Allocation). • Process for identifying crime trends and patterns, hotspots and neighborhood-level problem areas (PROBLEM SOLVING & ICAM). • Assist in identifying known offenders in proximity to crime events (CRIME ANALYSIS). Crime Mapping & Analysis 19

What is “crime analysis? ” • Crime Analysis is the professional practice and analytical process for identifying crime trends, patterns, criminals and operational strategies; and producing administrative reports. Crime Mapping & Analysis 20

Sphere of Crime Analysis Strategic C/A Administrative C/A Tactical C/A Crime Mapping & Analysis 21

Tactical Crime Analysis • Short term analysis of MO & Offenders • Identify crime patterns and series – similar crimes by the same suspect • Produce Offender Profile / Bulletin • Goal is Apprehension & Case Clearance – Search known offender & field interview (FI) card databases – Compare MO & Offender Characteristics Crime Mapping & Analysis 22

Limited number of crimes • • Murder Rape Robbery Burglary Motor Vehicle Theft Criminal Trespass Indecent Exposure Person to Person Crime / Evidential Crime (MO) Crime Mapping & Analysis 23

Strategic Crime Analysis • Developing strategies for addressing problems and operational concerns – Hotspot Analysis – Patrol Scheduling – Beat Configurations – Citizen and Employee Surveys • Problem Identification Crime Mapping & Analysis 24

Administrative Crime Analysis • Grant Writing and Monitoring • Budget Preparation • Political Presentations – City Council Meetings – County Commissioners & Boards – Community Involvement • Community Mobilization - Internet • Agency Performance Indicators Crime Mapping & Analysis 25

Need for Critical Activity Indicators • Process Measures • Measures of Police Behavior • Outcome Measure • Measures of Crime, Fear and Disorder • Themes • • Customer Service (Community/Neighborhood) Monitor Crime Rates and Trends Expectations about the Police Satisfaction Crime Mapping & Analysis 26

What is needed to get started? • Hardware • PC / Printer-Plotter • Software • Arc. GIS Arc. View • Map. Info • Others • Data - Basemaps and CFS/Crime (RMS) information • Staff & Training • Dedicated personnel with a propensity for computers • Budget for progressive training Crime Mapping & Analysis 27

What are the common problems & pitfalls? • Not having dedicated staff to handle crime mapping/analysis function • Not providing adequate training • Not investing in quality base maps • Not dealing with data integrity • Allowing management to be computer-phobic • Not making the hard decisions to improve IT systems (CAD, RMS, AVL) • Financial constraints Crime Mapping & Analysis 28

Data quality • Basemap • Tiger to Proprietary • Everything In-Between • Databases • • • CAD / CFS Offense / Arrest Field Contact Gangs / Drugs Census Data Other databases • Data Accessibility • Data Integrity Crime Mapping & Analysis 29

Let’s review… • What is crime analysis? • What are three types of crime analysis? Crime Mapping & Analysis 30

Fundamentals of Crime Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis

What is Crime Analysis? Crime analysis is the systematic study of crime and disorder problems as well as police related issues including sociodemographic, spatial, and temporal factors, to assist the police in criminal apprehension, crime and disorder reduction, crime prevention, and evaluation. Crime Mapping & Analysis 32

Crime analysts assist police: • • • Solve crimes Find apprehend offenders Prosecute and convict offenders Develop effective strategies and tactics to prevent future crimes Detect and solve community problems Improve safety and quality of life Optimize internal operations Prioritize patrol and investigations Allocate resources Plan for future resource needs Enact effective policies Educate the public Crime Mapping & Analysis 33

Crime Analysis Process Crime Mapping & Analysis 34

Analysis Model Basic Police Practice (daily) Incident analysis Serious incident analysis Operational Goals (weekly) Repeat incident analysis Pattern analysis Problem Solving Goals (monthly) Problem Analysis Government and Society’s Goals (yearly) Social issue research and policy analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis 35

Incident Analysis Mapping Example Crime Mapping & Analysis 36

Serious Incident Analysis Mapping Example Crime Mapping & Analysis 37

Repeat Incident Analysis Mapping Example Crime Mapping & Analysis 38

Pattern Analysis Mapping Example Crime Mapping & Analysis 39

Problem Analysis: Mapping Example Courtesy of the Port St. Lucie Police Department. Crime Mapping & Analysis 40

Social Issue Research/Analysis Mapping Example Crime Mapping & Analysis 41

Types of Crime Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis

Definition of Intelligence Analysis • Intelligence analysis is the study of “organized” criminal activity, whether or not it is reported to police, to assist investigative personnel in linking together people, events, and property. Source: Boba, R. (2001). Introductory guide to crime analysis and mapping. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services. Crime Mapping & Analysis 43

Definition of Criminal Investigative Analysis • Criminal investigative analysis is the study of serial criminals, victims and/or crime scenes and physical, sociodemographic, psychological, and geographic characteristics to develop patterns that will assist in linking together and solving current serial criminal activity. Source: Boba, R. (2001). Introductory guide to crime analysis and mapping. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services. Crime Mapping & Analysis 44

Definition of Tactical Crime Analysis • Tactical crime analysis is the study of recent criminal incidents and potential criminal activity through the examination of characteristics such as how, when, and where the activity has occurred to assist in pattern development, investigative lead and suspect identification, and case clearance. Crime Mapping & Analysis 45

Definition of Strategic Crime Analysis • Strategic crime analysis is the study of crime problems and other police-related issues to determine long-term patterns of activity as well as to evaluate police responses and organizational procedures. Crime Mapping & Analysis 46

Definition of Administrative Crime Analysis • Administrative crime analysis is the presentation of interesting findings of crime research and analysis based on legal, political, and practical concerns to inform audiences within police administration, city government/council, and citizens. Crime Mapping & Analysis 47

CAU Organizational Chart Crime Mapping & Analysis 48

Other Considerations • • • Qualities of an analyst Physical and organizational location Centralization Sworn vs. civilian analysts Training and education Crime Mapping & Analysis 49

Crime Mapping & Analysis

Definitions • A geographic information system (GIS) is a set of computer-based tools that allows the user to modify, visualize, query, and analyze geographic and tabular data. • Crime mapping is the process of using a geographic information system to conduct spatial analysis of crime problems and other police-related issues. Crime Mapping & Analysis 51

Crime Analysis and Crime Mapping & Analysis 52

Tactical Crime Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis

Tactical crime analysis • Tactical crime analysis deals with immediate criminal offenses (immediate, hours, days, weeks). It promotes a quick response to recent offenses such as burglaries and robberies. The tactical crime analyst provides information to assist operational personnel (police officers, detectives, etc. ) in the identification of specific crime trends and arrests. Crime Mapping & Analysis 54

Topics 1. Sequencing 2. Line of Positioning, Line of Bearing 3. Animation and 3 D Analysis 4. Spatiotemporal Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis 55

Case Study: Commercial Robberies, California • The following robbery series was identified and solved by a crime analyst in a mid-sized California community police department. • A series is defined as two or more related crimes (a pattern) committed by the same individual or group of individuals. Crime series go on every day, everywhere. Many criminals tend to be creatures of habit driven by drug habits or other sordid motivations. It is the job of the crime analyst, with available tools to identify crime series. When studying a crime series that occurs over a relatively short period of time (relative to the type of crime and the pattern), the holy grail is to “predict” where the next event will occur. This is not an exact science, but we are conducting research to determine what techniques work best with different types of crimes. • • Crime Mapping & Analysis 56

What does this map tell us? We know where the crimes occurred but not much else. Who, What, Where, When, How and Why? Crime Mapping & Analysis 57

A strategy may be to look at the time of the robberies or the time between robberies. How many days are there between strikes? How much money is taken at each strike? A big “score” may lengthen the interval between strikes. Time / Loss / Interval Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis 58

Sequencing allows us to follow the movement in space in the series. Which direction does the robber tend to move? In this example the suspect moves “cross town” each time. Now we may be interested in how far the suspect travels. Sequencing Crime Mapping & Analysis 59

Analyzing distance traveled may begin to reveal a “hunting ground” or a comfort zone (buffer) for the suspect. Analysis of distances between strikes Crime Mapping & Analysis 60

We might look at the angles measured by the change in direction as the suspect moves from target to target. Angle / Directional Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis 61

We’ve begun to narrow our search based on time, distance and direction. Now we can identify potential targets in the “predicted” hunting ground or strike area. Strike zone Crime Mapping & Analysis 62

Where are the businesses? Where are the potential targets or victims? Victimology / Target Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis 63

We can’t direct patrol or authorize overtime to cover the entire city but with a little analysis we can engage in “directed patrol” and prioritize potential targets. Target Prioritization Crime Mapping & Analysis 64

We might be able to “predict” where the next strike will be. This is not an exact science, but it is a lot better than not doing anything at all. Prediction / Forecast Crime Mapping & Analysis 65

Lopping and Lobbing • Another technique is lopping and lobbing. • This refers to a suspect’s discarding of evidence or property. Crime Mapping & Analysis 66

Crime scene and evidence drop locations (body, weapons, pawn, etc. ) Based on crime locations and evidence drops we may start to zero in on a suspect’s “home. ” The red dots indicate crime scene • The yellow dots indicate evidence recovery • Offender Crime Mapping & Analysis 67

In a similar fashion we may look at travel patterns. Crime Mapping & Analysis 68

What routes might a suspect take between “home” and targets? Crime Mapping & Analysis 69

Summary • Tactical crime analysis deals with crime series where a pattern indicates a single, or group of offenders exhibiting a identifiable modus operandi (MO). The goal of tactical crime analysis is to figure out or predict, in order to intervene, where the next crime may occur. Crime Mapping & Analysis 70

Strategic Crime Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis

Strategic crime analysis • Strategic crime analysis is primarily concerned with operational strategies and seeks solutions to on-going problems (weeks, months, quarters or years). • The purpose of strategic crime analysis is to perform police service more effectively and efficiently. Crime Mapping & Analysis 72

Pueblo, Colorado Case Study • Pueblo, Colorado was experiencing a rising number of complaints from elderly citizens claiming that they were being harassed by “punks. ” These complaints are generally classified as “threats and intimidation. ” Crime Mapping & Analysis 73

Questions? • What were the real problems in Pueblo? • Were threats and intimidation the number one problem? • Is so, where is the problem and what can be done about it? • Is there a youth problem? • A follow on to all of this is to determine whether resources are being deployed effectively. (That hints more of administrative crime analysis. ) Crime Mapping & Analysis 74

Strategic Crime Analysis Resource Allocation Crime Mapping & Analysis Redistricting / Scheduling / Workload Analysis 75

Problem solving: Threats and Intimidation Purpose: Using the SARA problem solving model, scan and analyze crimes of threats and intimidation and formulate a community response to these specific incidents. Assess the results and continue with the SARA process. Crime Mapping & Analysis 76

The SARA Model • Scan – What are the problems? What does crime and disorder look like in our community? Where are the problem areas? • Analyze – What is the nature of the problem? Causes? Spatial distribution? Temporal characteristics? • Response – What is an appropriate response? How do we deploy? • Assess – Did the response work? If we scan again, will we see an improvement in the situation? • For a more thorough review of the SARA Model, please consult the Center for Problem-Oriented Policing. Crime Mapping & Analysis 77

Scanning • The first step is to scan the data… – Geocode all of the crime data and then query the data that classifies as threats and intimidation. – The result is a map covered in dots that doesn’t really tell us much. Crime Mapping & Analysis 78

Threats and Intimidation Analysis and Results All reported incidents of threats and intimidation from 7/1/97 TO 6/30/98 Crime Mapping & Analysis 79

Analyze • The map on the next page illustrates the first level of analysis. • Hot spots are identified. In this case, hot spots are simply defined as places a with high volume of crime. • The following map illustrates hot spot mapping using choropleth or area symbol mapping. Crime Mapping & Analysis 80

132 Threats Crime Mapping & Analysis 81

Tabular analysis • It is also useful to look at the raw numbers evident in the following slide. Crime Mapping & Analysis 82

In-depth Analysis of Hotspots What is the scope and nature of the problem? Crime Mapping & Analysis 83

Results • As a result of this analysis it was determined that the greatest number of threats and intimidations reported to the Pueblo Police Department were not targeting elderly citizens. • The greatest number of threats and intimidations were at one of the local high schools – Keating Central High School. Crime Mapping & Analysis 84

Response • In the case of a high number of threats and intimidation occurring at the high school, how data is recorded must be taken into account. • Every “bad” student that mouths off to a teacher and every school yard brawl gets reported to a school safety (police) officer resulting in a large number of reports. • One wonders if there really is much one can do to reduce the “threats and intimidations” that occur at a large public high school. Crime Mapping & Analysis 85

Assessment • Analysis is good. • Response makes the chief and citizens happy. • Assessment is often a missing piece in law enforcement. • So what if we arrest a bunch of bad guys. What was the root of the problem? Did arresting a bunch of bad guys make the problem go away? How will we know if we don’t go back and analyze the data again in a second time period and compare our results? Crime Mapping & Analysis 86

Summary – Let’s review… • Strategic crime analysis is often referred to simply as problem solving. The essence of strategic crime analysis is to examine larger volumes of data over longer periods of time to look for trends and patterns that can be dealt with. The SARA model is often employed to guide the process of problem solving. Crime Mapping & Analysis 87

Administrative Crime Analysis Crime Mapping & Analysis

Administrative crime analysis • Administrative crime analysis deals with longrange comparisons (quarterly, semi-annually or annually). Examples of administrative crime analysis tasks include providing economic, geographic, and law enforcement information to police management, city hall, city council, and neighborhood/citizen groups. Crime Mapping & Analysis 89

Another definition taken from “Exploring Crime Analysis” • A broad category of analysis covering administrative and statistical reports, research, and other projects not focused on the immediate or long-term reduction or elimination of a pattern or trend. Examples include demographic change reports, crime statistics to support grant applications, creation of charts and graphs to support presentations, and creation of maps for special events. Crime Mapping & Analysis 90

The role of administrative crime analysis • Administrative crime analysis is probably the least “sexy” of the three realms of crime analysis. Administrative analyses are usually not part of the daily routine like tactical and strategic crime analysis. • Crime analysts tasked with administrative duties are often assigned to help determine new police beat boundaries every one or two years. This is not the only analysis, but it is typical. • Often administrative analysis incorporates a lot of statistics, both crime and demographic. Crime Mapping & Analysis 91

Just a little story… • The police department in Anytown, USA has 60 patrol officers and three shifts per day, seven days per week: – days (0700 -1500) – nights (1500 -2300 – “graveyard” (2300 -0700) • How does the “typical” shift captain divide the workload? 60 officers divided by three shifts = 20 officers per shift. But are all shifts equally busy? Probably not! Crime Mapping & Analysis 92

Mc. Donalds • Mc. Donalds restaurants do a better job of scheduling their workforce than most police departments. You can be sure that Mc. Donald’s management has figured out when the “rush” occurs. They know most folks will arrive for breakfast, lunch and dinner and the crowd will be smaller during the intervening hours – good time to get other tasks done or work with a smaller crew. Crime Mapping & Analysis 93

Workload management • Crime analysts can contribute to more efficient deployment of human resources by spatially and temporally analyzing patterns of crime. We know when peak times for reported crimes are. These are not universal rules but they can be figured out. • We know the bars close at 2 am and there will be drunk drivers and fights. • We know residences get burglarized during the day and the calls to the police department go up at 5: 30 pm when folks get home to find out they have been burglarized. • I even have a theory that domestic violence calls increase after the Sunday afternoon NFL games have concluded and drunk husbands and boyfriends everywhere are beating their wives and girlfriends after their favorite team loses – just a theory. Crime Mapping & Analysis 94

“Redistricting” • Redistricting is the word commonly used to describe creating new administrative boundaries. The Districting Extension in Arc. GIS is also a popular software for performing such tasks. Crime Mapping & Analysis 95

Drawing new boundaries • Local, state, and federal government agencies must periodically redraw administrative boundaries to account for shifts in population. GIS gives law enforcement a better way to handle drawing new police beats. Using GIS transforms the redistricting process from an arduous and lengthy manual operation into a convenient process where you can easily create and consider alternative scenarios to find the best available solution. • Districting for Arc. GIS also is useful for defining; sales territories; voting, school, and fire districts; and numerous other boundaries. Crime Mapping & Analysis 96

Not as simple as it looks • Population statistics have been previously mentioned as an important variable when redistricting. • Can you think of other variables that may be important when drawing new police boundaries? Crime Mapping & Analysis 97

Additional variables • • • Crime (actual number of crimes) Time spent on call Response time to calls Miles of roads to patrol Miles of paved vs. dirt/gravel roads to patrol Population of males between the ages of 14 and 30 Square miles of beat or district Population density of beat or district Ratio of residential, commercial and industrial land use And the list goes on and on… Crime Mapping & Analysis 98

Summary • Administrative crime analysis is an important component in the repertoire of the crime analyst. Using data collected over longer periods of time is used to help modern police departments do a better job of managing limited resources. Crime Mapping & Analysis 99

Intelligence-led policing definition: Intelligence-led policing is a business model and managerial philosophy where data analysis and crime intelligence are pivotal to an objective, decision-making framework that facilitates crime and problem reduction, disruption and prevention through both strategic management and effective enforcement strategies that target prolific and serious offenders. Crime Mapping & Analysis

ANALYSISCENTRIC OFFENDERCENTRIC RESULTSORIENTED Systemic Approach Synthesizes the old and the new Crime Mapping & Analysis We have been doing for 20 years – just not collaboratively

Crime Mapping & Analysis

Our goal is to be clear and concise about what we want to accomplish and measure our success. ILP Prolific Offenders Actionable Decisions • Reduction Problem Hotspot Analysis Crime • Disruption Disorder • Prevention The aim of intelligence‐led policing is for police managers to have a strategic overview of crime problems in their jurisdiction so that they can better allocate resources to the most important crime priorities. Crime Mapping & Analysis

Discussion, Questions, & Answers Crime Mapping & Analysis 104

The end… Crime Mapping & Analysis 105