Bureau of Economic Analysis Director Steve Landefeld Second Quarter Balanced Scorecard Performance Review June 2011
Accomplishments and Challenges Accomplishments • • BEA made good progress on all goals, including on-time delivery of statistics, accurate and timely provision of data to track the economic recovery, and work to incorporate new tax law changes into BEA’s economic accounts. In addition, BEA worked with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to develop an improved methodology for estimating health sector price indexes consistent with BLS’ CPI program. Challenges • • • BEA’s greatest challenge is updating its data to reflect changes in the economy. Despite ongoing increases in efficiency, updating the nation’s statistics requires resources. Absent those resources, the Bureau will have to make other programmatic reductions in order to fund only basic core statistical needs. “Data synchronization”—the sharing and linking of data between BEA, BLS, and Census—is another important challenge in keeping BEA’s statistics up to date. Budget Execution Current spending is in line FY 11 spend plan. BEA continues to maintain with our on hiring, and is reviewing allocations for travel, training, mailing, • a freeze • printing, and other administrative costs. Because BEA did not receive initiative funding in FY 11, work on key improvements—such as quarterly GDP by industry, measures of income distribution, and the economic impact of energy—will either not move forward or will move forward at a much slower pace. 2
Economic Growth OBJECTIVE: Expand BEA’s economic accounts to better measure health care, innovation, and intangibles. MEASURES: Percent of quarterly strategic plan milestones completed. STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • The new innovation statistics and associated papers have received strong interest and support from researchers, business economists, and policymakers. • Second quarter milestones completed include experimental estimates of human capital, release of a joint BLS/BEA working paper on health sector price indexes, and continued outreach at several economic conferences and invitational meetings. RISK • Lack of future funding will hamper development of human capital and other intangibles statistics. • Innovation measures are being partly financed by NSF; continuation of this work is dependent on continued NSF funding and data products. MITIGATING RISK • Continue to work with NSF to ensure continued funding and data products. • Continue working with allies to support future funding. Target: 100% Actual: 100% 3
Economic Growth OBJECTIVE: Prepare and continuously improve timely and accurate international statistics to foster U. S. trade. MEASURES: Combined response rate for the two quarterly direct investment surveys. STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • Keeping high response rates up during economic downturns is critical for providing timely and accurate data. • OMB recommends overall response rate of 80%; BEA achieves nearly 100% response rate in terms of dollars of direct investment. • The initial response rate for the second quarter of FY 11 was 80%; more complete coverage usually is attained by the time revised estimates are published. RISK • During economic downturns, firms are less likely to respond to surveys. MITIGATING RISK • BEA does regular outreach to ensure compliance remains at or above 80%. • Emphasis on larger firms and dollar-term response rates, which is more important for accuracy. Target: 80% Actual: 80% 4
Economic Growth OBJECTIVE: Prepare and continuously improve timely and accurate international statistics to foster U. S. trade. MEASURES: Percent of electronic filing of international investment and services surveys. STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • e. Filing program is key to improving accuracy, reducing response burden, and improving the timeliness of data. • Second quarter milestones met, with a continued increase in electronic response rates. • e. File response rates on the annual and benchmark surveys are improving. Currently, the 2009 Benchmark Survey of U. S. Direct Investment Abroad has an e. File response rate of over 60%. RISK • Achieving higher e. File rates may be difficult as many of the remaining respondents are small firms, where the relative costs of converting from paper to e. Filing may be higher and the benefits lower. MITIGATING RISK • BEA reaches out to survey respondents, demonstrating to them the efficiency and ease of e. Filing. Target: 100% Actual: 100% 5
Economic Growth OBJECTIVE: Prepare and continuously improve timely and accurate national, international, regional, and industry statistics to track the performance of the U. S. economy and to support effective decision making. MEASURES: Percent on-time delivery of statistics. STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • BEA issued all 13 data releases on time in the second quarter. RISK • There is a risk of not achieving 100% on time and accurate delivery of statistics if critical IT modernization does not continue. • Initiative funding for IT modernization in FY 12. MITIGATING RISK • BEA has temporarily reallocated base funding to update and keep its IT systems operational, but this is not sustainable long term. Target: 100% Actual: 100% 6
Economic Growth OBJECTIVE: Guarantee the accuracy of BEA’s GDP statistics. MEASURES: Accuracy index (based on BEA revision studies of the accuracy of early GDP estimates in estimating the growth rate and 5 other dimensions of accuracy). (Note: BEA converted this to a quarterly measure in time for the Q 2 Balanced Scorecard Report. ) STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • BEA’s GDP data are regarded as the most timely and accurate in the world and BEA regularly reports on revisions and accuracy. RISK • The accuracy of advance GDP estimates are lower during recessions and the early stages of recovery due to larger errors in extrapolations for missing source data around turning points. Despite lower precision at turning points, the early estimates still give an accurate general picture of economic activity. • There is a risk of not achieving greater than 85% accuracy if critical IT modernization does not continue. MITIGATING RISK • BEA has temporarily reallocated base funding to update and keep its IT systems operational, but this is not sustainable long term. Target: >85% Actual: 89% 7
Economic Growth OBJECTIVE: Improve service sector measures in BEA’s economic accounts, including the finance, insurance, and real estate sectors. MEASURES: Percent of milestones completed for improving service statistics. STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • For the upcoming flexible annual revision: BEA accelerated production of PCE services statistics for 2003– 07 using Census service annual survey data benchmarked to the 2007 Economic Census. • Improved price indexes for property and casualty insurance were also prepared. RISK • The inability to share, synchronize, and link data collected by BEA, BLS, and Census inhibits further improvement in services measures. MITIGATING RISK • BEA and ESA, along with Treasury and Labor, continue to work with Capitol Hill to address this issue legislatively. Target: 100% Actual: 100% 8
Science and Information OBJECTIVE: Prepare and continuously improve timely and accurate national, international, regional, and industry statistics to track the performance of the U. S. economy and to support effective decision making. MEASURES: Major market news citations (Note: BEA is developing a new target more consistent with new tracking systems. ) STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • GDP and other BEA data appear on a daily basis in print and electronic media worldwide. • The media is a key partner in getting BEA’s data to the public, and senior managers regularly meet with journalists to help them better understand the U. S. economy and what these measures mean. • In Q 2, BEA was mentioned in the media 2, 793 times according to a new and more accurate automated tracking system recently implemented. A less comprehensive manual count used previously revealed fewer than 800 citations per quarter. The new, more comprehensive tracking software reveals far more market news citations. RISK • Without continued outreach to media on the wealth of detail in BEA’s economic statistics, it will be more difficult to disseminate BEA data broadly to the press. MITIGATING RISK • BEA works closely with the media to help them understand the uses for and meaning behind BEA’s economic statistics. Target: 500 citations Actual: over 2, 700 citations 9
Customer Service OBJECTIVE: Promote an environment that is responsive to external customers by addressing their demands for more complex and more detailed information in a timely, efficient, and transparent manner using cutting-edge access and visualization tools, easier access, and new data products that deliver value to the user communities. MEASURES: Number of above-average responses on BEA’s Web site Customer Satisfaction Survey. (Note: BEA converted this to a quarterly measure in time for the Q 2 Balanced Scorecard Report. ) STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • BEA is currently using the detailed results from its customer service survey to improve its Web site and statistical products, including its new interactive tables. • 86% is the highest score achieved by any government information agency using the same metrics. RISK • Failure to continuously update the Web site in response to changing technologies and user needs. MITIGATING RISK • In the Q 3 BEA will unveil major improvements in the usability and design of www. bea. gov. Target: 80% Actual: 84% 10
Workforce Excellence OBJECTIVE: Recruit and retain a high-performing, diverse workforce with the critical skills necessary for mission success. MEASURES: OPM Organizational Assessment Survey (OAS) Score. Achieve benchmark highs on at least 5 of the 12 dimensions. STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • BEA is consistently one of the highest rated bureaus in the federal government. For the 2010 OAS, BEA had the highest scores of all participating agencies on 7 of the 12 dimensions and was tied for highest on 3 dimensions. (Note: Beginning in 2010, OPM changed the number of dimensions from 17 to 12. ) • BEA will be forming OAS Change Committees that will address the two dimensions that BEA scored lower than the benchmark RISK average. • Decline in BEA employee morale, resulting from threatened budget reductions, employment and wage freezes, and public attitudes toward federal employees. MITIGATING RISK • BEA is using a variety of means to provide a positive message that focuses on the importance and excellence of the Bureau and its work. Target: 5 benchmark highs Actual: 10 benchmark highs 11
Workforce Excellence OBJECTIVE: Recruit and retain a high-performing, diverse workforce with the critical skills necessary for mission success. MEASURES: Meet those 80 -day hiring model deadlines within the Bureau’s span of control. (BEA is responsible for number of days for hiring official to review the draft vacancy announcement and for number of days to review the cert, conduct interviews, and make offers). STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • Census Bureau provides HR services to BEA. • BEA’s current score is 81%, a 10% improvement from Q 1. RISK • Not achieving the hiring performance goal could cause BEA to lose qualified candidates to other employers. MITIGATING RISK • BEA is working collaboratively with Census HR to closely monitor the 80 -day hiring model and develop solutions for improvement. Target: 80% Actual: 81% 12
Organizational Excellence OBJECTIVE: Modernize BEA’s IT systems for greater efficiency, integration, Web accessibility and ease of use, and cyber security. MEASURES: • Number of IT product standards adopted—All were adopted. • Amount of commodity IT spending savings—N/A (No contracts awarded in Q 2). • Amount of contract reductions—Two contracts were consolidated for a net reduction of 1. • Efficiency/productivity improvements–reduce number of legacy applications incorporated into BEA’s centralized databases— 14. STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • BEA has implemented Bureau-wide standards for IT products; the Bureau is committed to work with other DOC operating units in developing, where feasible, agency-wide standards. • BEA is working with DOC to identify opportunities to reduce commodity IT spending by leveraging strategic sourcing. • BEA currently uses DOC contract vehicles for Adobe, SAS, and Microsoft products and is procuring secure Internet services through a DOC contract. BEA plans to leverage additional contracts as they become available. RISK • Savings and contract reductions are dependent on availability of consolidated contract vehicles; otherwise, these are reductions in existing contracts. • Ability to reduce legacy applications is dependent on availability of resources to complete statistical production modernization targets. MITIGATING RISK • BEA is working closely with Census Bureau and DOC to develop consolidated contracts where appropriate. • Bureau management is closely monitoring the modernization project. 13
Organizational Excellence OBJECTIVE: Modernize BEA’s IT systems for greater efficiency, integration, Web accessibility and ease of use, and cyber security. MEASURES: • Percent of systems in production with valid Authority to Operate— 100% • Percent of Plan of Action & Milestones closed on time— 100% • Percent of moderate/high-impact systems with secure configurations— 100% • Percent of servers with authenticated vulnerability scanning— 100% • Percent of scheduled independent IT security control tests completed— 100% STATUS & SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS • BEA’s singular and only system (BEA-EITS) has a valid Authority to Operate— 100% • BEA currently has one Plan of Action & Milestones (POAM) with the CIO—to procure secure Internet services. BEA is on track to reach the 100% goal. • BEA has implemented standard secure configurations for 100% of major components of the BEA-EITS and has initiated authenticated vulnerability scanning on servers. • BEA is scheduled to complete independent testing of 99 out of 99 IT security controls in FY 2011. RISK • Ability to close Plan of Action & Milestones depends on completion of procurement actions by DOC. • Ability to complete milestones is dependent upon sufficient resources. MITIGATING RISK • BEA is working with DOC to keep secure internet procurement on track and has completed all actions on time, with vendor selection completed in December 2010. • Bureau management is committed to maintaining the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of its information resources as they are critical to its success in producing timely, accurate, and relevant statistics. 14
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