Building Global Immunity: Anticipating, Preventing and Responding to Superempowered Individuals and Groups in a Metaverse Society Mad Scientist 2008 – Future Tech Seminar August 2008 Portsmouth, VA John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation © 2008 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations. l Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include: – – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity in our global sociotechnological systems Increasing technological autonomy, and Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-digital interface. © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Improving foresight through better theories of universal change. Evo. Devo. Universe. com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems. © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “Experimentation” Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation, Chaos, Contingency, Early Species Radiation (Mostly Nonadapted) Stochastic Search Strange Attractors “Natural Selection” Main Actor: Organism Life Cycle, Growth Curves, Modularity, Responsiveness, Plasticity, Intelligence (Local Adaptation) Requisite Variety Mixed Attractors Adaptation Radiation “Convergent Unification” Main Actor: Environment MEST Compression, Ergodicity/Comp. Closure, ‘Evolutionary’ Convergence, Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures, Positive Sumness/Synergy, Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental Optimization Standard Attractors Hierarchy Evolution ‘Left Hand’ of Change Los Angeles New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’ New York Palo Alto Evo Devo (Intersection) Development ‘Right Hand’ of Change Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics: Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism). © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Three Primary Foresight Skills Future Creation, Discovery, and Management Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-probability but high-impact events). In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage (“CDM”) the future. l Creation (“Possible”) – personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking l Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”) – forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research l Management (“Preferable”) – environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking, scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Three Primary Foresight Domains: Futures, Development, and Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Futures Studies – “Possible, Probable, & Preferable” change (scenarios, trends, strategy) l Development Studies (Developmental inevitability) – Predictable and statistically irreversible change (emergences, phase changes) l Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments) – Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback, self -catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world. Nevertheless, there are few primary academic programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years), and none in DS or AS (by name at least). l © 2008 Accelerating. org
Wikipedia breeds Intellipedia and Eventually, Futurepedia: A Foresight Vision Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
Understanding and Managing Development Predictable, Directional, Generally Irreversible, Cyclical, Conservative
Human Development Studies: Sequential Growth Stages Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Paths Acceleration Studies Foundation Examples: A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Secularism (human-derived values) Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths) Rationality (logic+empiricism) Self Expression Subjective Well Being Quality of Life Sustainability World Awareness Future Orientation Political Moderation Interpersonal Trust Casualness Los Angeles New York worldvaluessurvey. org Palo Alto It may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Trend: Declining Global Violence Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Stephen Pinker, “The History of Violence, ” 2007 l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Civil society, positive-sum, empathy, immunity 20 th Century war deaths of 100 million would have been 2 billion (20 X) if they had the relative mortality of tribal warfare. Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from 24 per 100, 000 in the fourteenth century to 0. 6 per 100, 000 by the early 1960 s. Battle deaths in interstate wars have declined from 65, 000/yr in the 1950 s to 2, 000/yr in 1990’s See Human Security Brief 2006 (www. humansecuritybrief. info/) © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Trend: Avg US literacy scores projected to decline between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality. Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255 M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 Literacy By 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363 M (32%) will be in this Category A Flatter Curve Means More Inequality Less Proficient Los Angeles New York America’s Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007 Palo Alto More Proficient © 2008 Accelerating. org
The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the commercial digital world emerged. New problems have emerged (population, human rights, asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions for each in coming waves of technological globalization. “The human does not change, but our house becomes exponentially more intelligent. ” We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams, who realized the core acceleration is due to the intrinsic properties of technological systems. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998 © 2008 Accelerating. org
Likely Network Society Developments: Staggered Closing of Global Divides Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom Education divide may close next (post. Conversational Interface, post-2020) Income divide may close next. Developed world plutocracy is still increasing, but slower than before. We’ve been “rationalizing” global workforce wages since 1990’s*. Power divide is likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains. *World Bank, 2005 © 2008 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression Implication: Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Technological (dominant since 1920 -50) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed) l Economic (dominant 1800 -1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) l Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first. ” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Pluralism examples: 50, 000 Internat’l NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Services/Network/Information Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”) Network 1. 0 “Mc. Jobs” & Service 65% of Jobs, 2000’s Network 2. 0 New Middle Class 40% of Jobs, 2030’s Network 3. 0 Consolidation Again 15% of Jobs, 2060’s Products/Manufacturing Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”) Manufacturing 1. 0 Exploitive Jobs 50% of Jobs, 1900’s Manufacturing 2. 0 New Middle Class 35% of Jobs, 1950’s Manufacturing 3. 0 Offshoring/Globalizing 14% of Jobs, 2000’s Resources/Agricultural Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Agriculture 1. 0 Subsistence Jobs 80% of Jobs, 1820’s Agriculture 2. 0 Family Farms 50% of Jobs, 1920’s Agriculture 3. 0 Corporate Farms 2% of Jobs, 1990’s See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03 © 2008 Accelerating. org
China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Annual average GDP growth of 9. 5% (Some urban areas up to 20%!) Largest global producer of toys, clothing, consumer electronics. Moving into cars, computers, biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc. 1. 5 billion hard workers “greatest natural resource on the planet. ” High savings, factory wages start at 40 cents/hour 45, 000 Taiwanese Contract Factories 20, 000 European Contract Factories 15, 000 U. S. Contract Factories © 2008 Accelerating. org
Online Economy: Growing Even Faster than China Acceleration Studies Foundation l From 1996 to 2006, total internet users have gone from 36 million to 1 billion, or from 1% to 16% of the world's population. We've still got a lot of user growth ahead of us. l From 1996 to 2006, U. S. online retail e-commerce (business to consumer), perhaps the most useful proxy for the growth of virtual world economies, has grown from 5 million to a projected $95 Billion for 2006, with a current projected marginal growth rate of 12% per year. GDP per capita of online worlds like Norrath (Everquest) are 4 X higher than China’s. l In 2004, Internet penetration in China was still less than 6% of the urban population in 2004, yet by that time China already had the single largest population of online gamers. l Key Point: Think of the Metaverse Economy as the future, even more (much more!) than “China as the future. ” A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace: User-Modified 3 D Persistent Worlds Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Global Collaboration and Coexperience Environments Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others Streaming video coming 2008. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Future Salon in Second Life Synthetic Worlds, 2005 © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Tech Development: Finding and Funding the Bottlenecks Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Li-Ion Nanobattery 80% recharge in 60 seconds 80 X faster recharge (hi amp). Duty to 2, 500 vs 500 cycles 5 X increase in duty length Better at temp extremes Cost competitive Toshiba (2005) A 123/De Walt (2008) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto What Might This Enable? l New consumer wearable and mobile electronics l Military apps (FCS) l Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“ 90% of an electric vehicle economy”) “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet. ” ― William Gibson © 2008 Accelerating. org
Innovation, Patents, and Policy in Large vs. Small Companies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no incentive to implement unless: a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patents b. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failing c. Existing product lines are presently being threatened d. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence) Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim. Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H 2 fuel cells) vs. effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids). Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers, or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait” Some Solutions: Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrations Lower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industry Mandate tough and increasing performance standards Litigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies. Promote consumer information and informed buying decisions Promote buying consortiums based on performance specs Los Angeles Promote corporate transparency New York Promote public stock ownership Palo Alto Toyota’s 1/X Concept Car (2007) 1/3 the weight 2 X the fuel efficiency of the Prius © 2008 Accelerating. org
Big Companies are Necessary But Counterinnovative, So Fund Small and Mid-Size Companies Wherever Possible Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator: Lessons of Bose (2000) and Microvision (2003) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy (often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation). © 2008 Accelerating. org
U. S. Army: Development Challenges and Opportunities Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Security Leader Development Partner This makes institutional sense. A natural constraint. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Many development capability options: l Specialization (Corps of Engineers, etc. ). l Unique Capacities (Fire and weather mgmt, FLEs) l Competition (Cross services bidding) l Incentives if under budget and before deadline with quality (ex: Kowloon Tunnel (Hong Kong), Human Genome Project, etc. )) l Networks (America’s Army: worldwide devel. recruits) l Partnerships. Most obvious: USAID (long term optimists). Many others as well (bottom up). © 2008 Accelerating. org
“NISCB”: Five Substrates for Complexity Development, Arranged “Fastest First” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Nanotech (nanoscale science and materials engrg) Infotech (computing and communication, EE) Sociotech (org. and social tech, mech eng. /robotics) Cognotech (brain sci, dev. psych, human factors) Biotech (life sciences, biotechnology, health care) It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field. Infotech examples: A. I. , multimedia, internet, wireless It is also easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies. Every tech has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion. First and second mover advantages. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit "Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand I will move the world. " Archimedes of Syracuse (287 -212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world. ” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) © 2008 Accelerating. org
Disruptive MEST Compression in Inner Space: Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers Acceleration Studies Foundation Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal, " can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable. A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw -dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20 th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Inner Space: Using Quantum Computers for the Simulation and Investigation of Quantum Processes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Quantum Computing is a Vast, Uncharted Investigation Space (‘Hilbert Space’). l Today’s Early Quantum S&T Programs: – – – Crypto, Factoring, Search Algorithms Secret Communications (Quantum Internet) Jon P. Dowling QST @ LSU Imaging and Sensing (‘No Emission’ Imaging) l No Exponential Advantage of Quantum vs Classical Computers for NP-Hard Problems (Scott Aaronson) l So What is their Future “Killer Application”? – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto – Modeling Quantum Processes (“Turning atoms into bits”) Continue riding our Learning Curves in Materials Science Positive feedback for nano, opto, quantum computing. A 24 qubit quantum computer can instantly model ground state of a Thorium atom. Far too difficult to do classically. “Long run: “Programmable Matter? ” (Wil Mc. Carthy) © 2008 Accelerating. org
Automation and Artificial Intelligence Empowering the Technology Infrastructure
Understanding Process Automation Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “ 7/8 comes from technical progress. ” Human contribution (20%? ) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and “taxing the machines” are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Long-Term: Everyone becomes a service provider, “famous to 15 people”. Termite Mound © 2008 Accelerating. org
Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto • AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry ― $1 B in 1993 (mostly defense), $12 B in 2002 (mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U. S. , Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing faster than decision support, agents, evo AI ― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc. ), few new platforms • Translation, Natural Language Processing, and Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly (Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems) Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon. • Coming: Conversational Interface (CI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture/Valuecosm © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Robo sapiens Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “Huey and Louey” AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 (Can get up when he falls or when you knock him down) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Aibo Soccer © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Biologically-Inspired Technology and Evo Devo Computing: The Next Frontier Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Today we have weakly biologically-inspired computing technologies (neural nets, genetic algorithms, developmental genetic programming, belief networks, support vector machines, evolvable hardware, etc. ) When such systems become: l Strongly biologically-inspired l Extensively self-improving (semi-autonomous) l Leading strategies for creating complex systems Only then may the “technological singularity” be near. For more, attend: Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
How do you get stability/safety in an evolutionary system? Select for symbiosis. Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Look at how we do it in domesticated animals (10, 000 years, 5, 000 breeding cycles). How many breeds of dogs and cats can you trust with small children? Military will always have the warbots (narrowly trustable) Most breeds of robotic systems will be generally trustable, all will be trustable for their missions, or we won’t build them using evolutionary processes. Boston Dynamics Big. Dog © 2008 Accelerating. org
Saturation in Perceived Tech Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Question: Could the 21 st Century provide equally as fundamental breakthroughs, in terms of human impact? I would argue not. Once you’ve fed, watered, housed, transported, connected, educated, entertained, and healed the masses of humanity, you’ve pretty much maxed out the fundamental innovations you can expect in the human phase space. In other words: From the average person’s perspective, we can expect “more, better, with less” of each of the above in the 21 st century, but increasingly less disruptive social change. Increasingly, innovative 21 st century developments must occur in technology intelligence and autonomy —on the other side of the event horizon from common human experience. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Disagree? See: Measuring Innovation in an Accelerating World, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72(8): 988 -995, John Smart, 2005 © 2008 Accelerating. org
Intelligence Amplification Machine-Aided Individual and Collective Intelligence
Digital Transparency: Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it. Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie clips, text messages, notes), Sense. Cam, What Was I Thinking, and My. Life. Bits (2003) are early examples of “lifelogs, ” (aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’), systems for recording, auto-archiving and autoindexing all life experience. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into wisdom. © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
The Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015 -2020 Developmental Attractor Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Date Avg. Query Platform 1998 1. 3 words Altavista 2005 2. 6 words Google 2012 5. 2 words Google. Help 20132019 10. 4 words Average spoken human-to-human query length is 11 words. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a more efficient communication modality. Ananova, 2002 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 © 2008 Accelerating. org
Post 2015 -2025: The Symbiotic Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: l A time when computers “speak our language. ” l A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. l A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. l A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Bracelet phone (Nokia 2004) ‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2006) Los Angeles Wearcam. org’s first-gen New York ‘sousveillance’ cams (2001) Palo Alto i. Phone (Apple 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Personality Capture Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. ” (Brian Arthur, SFI) © 2008 Accelerating. org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine. ” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children. ” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “ 50% her. ” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “ 80% him. ” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We wouldn’t have it any other way. Greg Panos (and Mother) Persona. Foundation. org © 2008 Accelerating. org
Valuecosm 2030: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s - Recording and Publishing DT Preferences - Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us - Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions - Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) - Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) - Early Examples: Social Network Media © 2008 Accelerating. org
The Leader’s Challenge: Guiding Us to “Plural Positive” Futures Acceleration Studies Foundation Plutocratic Zero-Sum Homogeneous “Either/Or” Futures AND Individual advance (Top-Down, Devo) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto versus Social-Tech A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Pluralistic Positive-Sum Differentiated “Both/And” (Bottom-Up, Evo) Calculator Prolif. Automation Incr. Metaverse Adv. Automated Cars Digital Twins Security AND AND AND Math Skills Work/Prod. Skills Study/Reading Skills Driving Skills Self-Empowerment Freedom (to & from) © 2008 Accelerating. org
Immunity and the Network Society Key Metaphors for Global Security and Development
Immune Systems Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit All Complex Systems are Protected By Them l Molecular-level Surveillance (Transparency) – l Difficult to See, Can Fail Subtly (Subliminality) – l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Ex: HLA sensing and birth control pills. Multiple Overlapping Processes (Redundancy) – l Highly complex gene networks allow you to recognize roughly 1 million protein antigens as “self” at birth. MHC complex in each cell grinds up and presents to your immune cells fragments of anything that is “nonself”. Barriers, NK Cells, MHC, AP Cells, T-cells, B Cells, Antibodies, Complement, etc. Statistical Effects (Graceful Degradation) Rapid response (Institutional Memory) Strengthened by Catastrophe (Learning System) © 2008 Accelerating. org
The Network Society Technological “Cephalization” of Earth Acceleration Studies Foundation "No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively. " A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit - Teilhard de Chardin, 1955 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition (“Singularity”) © 2008 Accelerating. org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap: Our New Global Defense Paradigm Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The Core Countries vs the Technologically, Culturally, and Economically Disconnected Gap Countries, which together form a socio-computational “Ozone Hole. ” © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Why the Gap Shrinks Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “He who can handle the quickest rate of change survives. ” -- Col. John Boyd, Military Strategist MEST compression/Accelerating Change selects for adaptiveness and to a degree, social complexity. l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Why Eurasia won the sociopolitical, technological, military, and germ development race (Largest East. West Axis, earliest domestication of animals, Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel). Why Europeans decimated the Americas and Pacific Islanders with a host of crowd infectious diseases, and not the other way around. Why the Gap will shrink to next-to-nothing as we create a transparent global society this century. © 2008 Accelerating. org
John Boyd: Energy-Maneuverability Theory Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Jet’s Maneuverability (Average Kinetic Energy) = (Thrust minus Drag over Weight) x Velocity Led Boyd and the USAF “Lightweight Fighter Mafia” to strongly advocate radical lightweighting and design improvements to the F-15 and F-16. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto For all Boyd briefs and commentary, visit Chet Richard’s site: www. d-n-i. net/second_level/boyd_military. htm © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression and Reaction Time: Boyd’s OODA Loop Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Rise of maneuver vs. attrition warfare (fast infantry > cavalry > ground vehicles > jet fighters > netwar) Since Napoleon’s fast infantry, the best tech continually “gets inside the decision cycle” of the opponent. Latest Manifestation: “Rapid Dominance/Shock and Awe” Strategy. Gulf War I and II (beginning). -- Massive communication (land, air, space) and air power (recon, bombers, fighters, missiles). -- Target enemy command control. A) Total command of the skies and B) overwhelming firepower are not enough. They must be C) Los Angeles deployable inside the enemy’s OODA loop. Israel had A&B in the 2006 Israeli-Lebanon War, but New York Hezbollah had better and faster ground maneuverability and concealment. Stalemate. Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Superior Energy-Maneuverability and Rapid OODA: The Tactical Advantage of Small, Expert Teams Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Small teams can: -- Rapidly innovate and adapt -- Operate below the radar (stealth) -- Have superior urgency and purpose -- Ignore convention and pursue vision -- Get hand-picked excellence and resources -- Sustain their speed via redundancy and reserves -- Be expendable, experimental, exploratory as needed Los Angeles New York Palo Alto These are increasingly critical advantages in a globalized, accelerating, network-centric world. © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
COIN, RDF, and Special Forces: A Leading Role in the Future Military Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Future joint (JFCOM and International) operational priorities: Countering global extended insurgencies (presently 120). © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Sometimes the more you protect your COIN/SOF force, vs. the host populace, the less secure you are. Sometimes the more force is used the less effective it is. Sometimes doing nothing (in response) is the best action. The more successful the counterinsurgency op, the less it must be used (vs. police) and the more risk accepted. The best counterinsurgency weapons (public support, economic development, political participation, hope) do not shoot. Usually, helping the host nation do something tolerably is better (to the host public) than us doing it well. Tactical success guarantees nothing. Tactics are highly time and context dependent. Many of the most important decisions are made by “strategic corporals, ” not generals. From: Counterinsurgency, Army FM 3 -24, David Petraeus, James Amos, et. al. (2006), p. 27 © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Superempowered Individuals and Groups Increasingly Pivotal Threats and Catalysts to Global Immunity
Many High-Value Targets in Developed Societies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Transport (airways, ports, railways, bridges, tunnels) l Energy (refineries, pipelines, oil wells, dams, grids) l Commerce (skyscrapers, financial markets, malls) l Entertainment (sports arenas, theatres, ) l Data (computing facilities, databases) l Communications (cable, satellite, cellular, radio) l Other (nuclear plants, prisons, water treatment) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto When have we seen persistent systemic sabotage? Primarily in independence/separatist/resistance movements (IRA, Chechnya, Palestine, FARC, Iraq, etc. ). Can we allow balkanization? What are the benefits/risks? © 2008 Accelerating. org
Proportionate, Localized Response (Well-Trained Immune Systems) Acceleration Studies Foundation l Bin Laden Tape (2004 US Election) A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit – – – l “We are not haters of freedom. We did not attack Sweden, we attacked the US. ” Specifically anti-US policy goals. 9/11 attackers cost Bin Laden $500 K, ‘caused $500 B in indirect costs’ (“a million-to-one payoff”). Bin Laden calculated we’d go to Afghanistan (and bleed like the Russians did). We went to Iraq instead (much greater ecnomic hit, by most estimates). “Economic jihad” against the US. Fatwa to “bleed the US financially, decrease its global insignificance. ” “Superpower baiting. ” Seeking disproportionate response, economic damage, bureaucracy. Decentralized vs. Centralized Control and Response – – Los Angeles New York Brave Palo Alto “Resilient communities” (John Robb) Local sensors, effectors, data processing New War, John Robb, 2007; Overblown, John Mueller, 2006 © 2008 Accelerating. org
Universal Game Theory and Global Security Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Economics (experimental econ, neuroecon, etc. ), anthropology, evolutionary biology, psychology, and sociology are converging to provide a framework for understanding the universal human urge to cooperate. Universal game theory/cooperation theory/social contract theory has been invigorated by Ernest Fehr’s Ultimatum Game. Two people share a windfall (say $10). Person A gets to propose the split, Person B must accept. Typical splits are 5 -5 or 6 -4, never 9 -1 (Homo economicus). In some places (Lamalera, Indonesia) splits are consistently 4 -6. Equity is the rational economic choice under the right conditions. Understanding how those conditions break down is the key to effective law, policy, and national security. Moral Sentiments and Material Interests, Herb Gintis et. al. (2006) All our economic, legal, and social structures (value of our fiat currency, stock market, law, social custom) are best understood as iterated positive sum games. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
LA Times Homicide Map: A Geography of Violence Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
Brazil’s Land Housing Activist Movements: Sem Terra (without land) and Sem Teto (without roof) Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles l New York Palo Alto Slum dwellers need stable living space, security, sanitation, clean water, affordable food. If they don’t get these they may take them by mass civil disobedience, an increasingly effective strategy in the Network Age. Squatters (468 homeless families) took over an unused 22 story office building in Sao Paulo in 2002. "At first glance Prestes Maia seems a chaotic shantytown; cardboard spews out of its cracked windows, graffiti litter its walls and children rattle through its wide corridors on bicycles. But the community is meticulously organised. Residents contribute R$20 (£ 5) a month to the upkeep of the building and cleaning communal bathrooms. ” Sem Teto, the Roofless Movement is the urban equivalent to Brazil's Movimento dos Sem Terra (MST) or Landless Movement, which has spearheaded the campaign for land reform since the 1980 s. Sem Terra defends Brazil's impoverished rural workers and reclaims unproductive and unused land for the dispossessed. Movimento de Sem Teto do Centro, MSTC reclaims buildings for the urban homeless and low-income workers. Sem Terra and Sem Teto may be the start of much more networked, activist squatter communities of the future. Smart mobs, indeed. © 2008 Accelerating. org
SIMAD: Superempowered Individuals, Massively Asymmetrically Destructive Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Post 9/11 Anthrax Attack (Bruce Ivins) – – l l “Ability of one person (or small group) to declare war on the world… and win. ” (John Robb) This is particularly true if the SI’s are seeking: – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto One superempowered individual. Five died, $5 billion spent by USPS alone ($1 B per sorting center), plus many billions more by homeland security (hazmat suits, etc. ). Fortress America (or Fortress World) Slower globalization Specific policy goals (companies out of certain markets, etc. ) Money (blackmail, kidnapping) © 2008 Accelerating. org
DIMAD: Duo of Individuals, Massively Asymmetrically Destructive Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Folie à deux, troix, quatre, famille (a madness shared by two, three, four, family) Can be long-term stable, hard to detect Genesis needs better study. Always signs in the alienation of the duo, trio, etc. One long term solution: – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto – Social networks become Symbiont Networks (2020+) Serious DSM-IV pathologies (psychopathologies, schizophrenia, delusional disorders) are each typically less than 1% of the population. 95+ percent of us have “normal” moral and social codes. As connectivity improves, people ID’d with serious mental problems, criminal rehab, executive performance, etc. will all use symbiont networks (“networked to normalcy”). A level of therapy just not possible today. The challenge becomes the identification. © 2008 Accelerating. org
BOGMAD: ‘Bunch of Guys, ’ Massively Asymmetrically Destructive Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Hamburg Cell (9/11). Escalating, group-fueled ideological, conversation-driven radicalism. Better bugs (video and audio) and surveillance laws. One Concern: – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Laws against and detection of devices that allow BOGs, sitting in a room, to have wired or wireless encrypted conversation by keystroke, while having inocuous verbal conversations. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Valuable Paradigm: Think of SIMADs, DIMADs, and BOGMADs as Entrepreneurs Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l These are people with ‘Revolutionary Ideas’ looking for funding. They often can’t help their obsessions. In network age, it’s easier every year for funders (“Terror Capitalists”) to find and hire these individuals, anonymously. Superempowerment by proxy. Long run solutions: – – l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Identification, Monitoring, even Employment (“Find them First”) There are comparatively few such individuals, they can be ID’d (have a history), they want to tinker for someone. Often loners, looking for social purpose. Income/asset transparency (but money a 2 ndary motivation). Govt: US Do. E’s Intiatives for Proliferation Prevention, Govt-Industry: Megatons to Megawatts Program, etc. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Lesson of Timothy Mc. Veigh Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Deadliest US terrorism prior to 9/11. (168 killed in Oklahoma City Bombing, 1995). Had been an excellent marksman in US Army, Bronze Star from Gulf War. After Army he applied to Special Forces (Green Berets), dropped out, subsequently self-radicalized in talk, then action. Mc. Veigh took a Primary Leadership Development Course (PLDC) prior to Desert Storm (1991). What more could we have done? DIMAD. Terry Nichols was an accomplice. He was selectively influenced by (and sold at gun shows) the Turner Diaries. He rejected the white supremacy aspects, adopted the domestic terrorism-activism subplot. Question: What if there’d been a special program for such highcapacity (and clearly downtrend) individuals? Conferences, career transition help, social networks. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Nigeria’s Oil Delta: A Lesson in BOGMAD Creation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l MEND: Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, emerged in 2006 as the latest in a series of increasingly professional armed militia groups demanding political reform and a ($1. 5 billion) share in the oil profits for Nigeria’s impoverished 27 million Delta inhabitants l Oil industry development has polluted Nigeria’s rivers, collapsing subsistence fishing l Nigeria’s population boom and squatter city growth continues l High levels of government corruption at all levels, a longstanding problem in Nigeria l A small no. of very large corporations (Shell, Chevron. Texaco, etc. ) make big profits while claiming no ability to collectively shape development policy in Nigeria l No intergovernmental political or security agency (UN, G 7, NATO, etc. ) has stepped forward to pressure for Nigerian governmental reforms l Disenfranchised militant groups are an important global security problem Al Haji Asari Dokubo and the Los Angeles Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force New York (2004, Bought-Out “Amateurs”) Palo Alto Jomo Gbomo, MEND, and the United Ijaw States (2006+, Non-Purchasable “Professionals”) © 2008 Accelerating. org
Ilicit Small Arms, and Light Weapons (SALW) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto UN Definition: “any man-portable lethal weapon that expels or launches, or may be readily converted to expel or launch a shot, bullet or projectile by the action of an explosive. “ 600 million SALW in circulation, perhaps half of these are illicit. Typical Sources: l Illicit brokering l Smuggling l Weapons left over from conflicts l Leakage from military and police stockpiles l Theft l Illicit manufacturing Many incredibly simple designs exist. British WWII 9 mm Sten gun: only 47 parts. Gun manufacture must be licensed, legal. © 2008 Accelerating. org
High-Powered Rocketry – A High-End Hobby: High Time to License? Confidential Sec Clearance? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Rocket. Mavericks, Black Rock Desert, NV © 2008 Accelerating. org
Radio-Control Manufacturers: Immune Systems Needed in RC Devices Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Dec. 17, 2003: TAM-5, an 11 -pound RC plane flies 1, 888 miles from Canada to Ireland in 38 hours, 53 minutes. (100 yr anniversary of Wright Brother’s first 12 second flight. ) When will guidance get sophisticated enough for precise targeting? Can we define, license and confidential clear the folks who do such high-end RC? Do. D and Law Enforcement needs to hold RC manufacturers accountable. These systems need: – Presence: Urban Map of all RC Flyers – Control: Ability to shut down all RC in urban area. – Laws: Against RC without “presence and control. ” © 2008 Accelerating. org
Explosives, Rockets, COTS Tech, & Trial and Error: Man-Portable Tactical Missiles Acceleration Studies Foundation Greatest Near-Term Threats: Illicitly-Made Next-Gen Tele-IEDs Illicitly-Made Man-Portable Missiles. Look what US supplied Stingers did to USSR in Afghanistan. Devastating capacity. l 270 confirmed aircraft kills so far. l Infrared guided. l Two Mfgrs (Raytheon, EADS) l 70, 000 missiles produced to date. (Chipped? ) One Solution: Special ICC and US laws against explosives production, missile production, multiple persistent stings (entrapment). Legal entrapment affordances. Los Angeles A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
Can a Sony PS 2 Guide a Missile? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Export controls were placed by on PS 2 by Japan in 2000 due to its missile guidance and other military capability. Obviously temporary. Saddam Hussein purchased 4, 000 in 2000 (considered “toys” not included in embargos). Now on e. Bay for $100. 140 million units sold. Untraceable COTS. “Military fears over Playstation 2, ” BBC News, April 17, 2000 © 2008 Accelerating. org
Portable Missiles: DIY Cruise Missile Project Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto One man (Bruce Simpson, 2002+) Interestingprojects. com/cruisemissile. Website still up. “Watch me build one for under NZ $5, 000. ” “I'm not publicizing anything not already on the net. ” Iran contacted him offering to pay for details of his research. Shut down 2003 by NZ Govt, working with US intell. Violating the international Missile Technology Control Regime. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Nuclear Terrorism Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l US/Russian bilateral leadership needed on nuclear nonproliferation. This is the primary reason the two Cold War countries need each other. Russia is now the world’s #1 energy producer. Increasingly independent politically. They ask: Why do they need us? Ans: To safeguard their future. Continued regulation and slowdown of ultracentrifuge, laser isotope, EM, chemical, and other uranium separation technologies. Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS). – – – l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Exxon was working on this technology in 1980’s, shut down after $200 M investment. USEC was working on this technology 1994 -1999, also shut down after $100 M investment. Iran had a secret AVLIS program prior to 2003, claims to have shut it down since it was exposed. Ocean water AVLIS possible in the basement in 2100? Bet on it. But with appropriate transparency and immunity, we can keep our civil liberties and manage this problem. Bet on it. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Bioterrorism Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l There has never been a pathogen that has killed a species. This is very difficult, at present. Differential immunity, quarantining “put out the fires, ” spread the less lethal variants far more rapidly. Best Long-Run Solutions: – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Understand the pathogens and their simple strategies Build complex bioimmunity. Close the vulnerability window. Will people be able to make superengineered pathogens and kill hundreds of thousands with them in 2050? Very unlikely. Vaccines, disease surveillance, molecular immunology will be too powerful by then, in my bet. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Red Teaming the Urban Entropy Points Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Could you tip this building with RC and explosives? Could you dominoe some of these buildings by tipping just one? © 2008 Accelerating. org
Underground Technologies Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l It is too easy to go underground. Underground tunnels – l Underground factories: – l Drug production, kidnapping, slavery Some solutions: – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Smuggling, escape routes, “safe houses”. Better power and sewer monitoring Better arial imaging Better ground penetrating sonar Special laws against digging illegal basements, human enclosures. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Selling and Building Immunity How Much? How Fast? Our Choice
Healthy Immunity Protects Privacy, Ends Anonymity Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l A healthy living system is: – – l l There is no place your immune cells can’t go Likewise, in late 21 C society privacy, compartments, secrets will abound, yet all communications and actors must, by then, be near fully immune-transparent. The alternative just doesn’t work (as we’ll see). And since information can asymmetrically protect itself (far easier to encrypt than decrypt): – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto transparent to a trusted immune system compartmentalized to everyone else. – All encryption keys must be breakable by trusted actors, with due process. Packet sniffing/channel sampling to find illicit economies. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Panopticon: Affordable, Balanced Transparency is a Positive-Sum Game in Civil Society Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Surveillance (top-down tracking) Souveillance (bottom-up tracking) Ex: Lower Manhattan Security Initiative (2008): - 3, 000 new sec. cameras, 2/3 in private hands. - Automated license plate readers (like UK). Ex: Cameras in Police Cruisers (2003+) - Sometimes at behest of officers (safety) - Sometimes citizen initiatives (civil rights) Balance is a ‘Panopticon’, all-watching-all in public space. (Transparent Society, 2008) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency (2003) Tracking illicit economies (a major global vulnerability) © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Visual Transparency: Speed Cameras, Camera Traps and Mesh Networks Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Red light camera (Beaverton, OR) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Woods. Watcher, $285 We can buy $200 surveillance cameras at Wal-Mart (2005). When are we going to see $20 camera traps for personal use? When in developing nations? Asiatic Cheetas (Iran, 2005) Rare and previously thought extinct animals are being discovered. © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
What are the Contingency Plans for SI’s and SG’s? How Do We “Catalyze Immunity” from Catastrophe? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Lesson: Shell Oil Scenarios foresaw and took advantage of: – – l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto OPEC Oil Embargo (1972) Fall of Soviet Union (1989) Be ready for rapid learning from catastrophe with appropriate immune responses Pay for Serious Foresight (Scenarios, Driving Forces) Have the Best Plans on the Shelf Have the Best R&D Strategy Execute when Opportune “People don’t change when they see the light, they change when they feel the heat. ” © 2008 Accelerating. org
Anticipation Example: Shotspotters and Next-Gen Security Cams Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l What is the Contingency Plan for next Serial Sniper? l Beltway Sniper Attacks – – – Three weeks, ten deaths (Oct 2002) Two individuals (John Muhammad, Lee Malvo) Stealth technology (Caprice sedan w/ cutout) l Subsidized Shotspotters – – – Used in high-crime areas (LA, SF) “Broken Windows” effect (police quickly knock on doors after, to see what was seen). Measurable effects on Comp. Stat. Institutional resistance (far more prolific and accurate calls) l Subsidized Sound-Sensitive Telephoto Security Cams – – Swivel, 100 X zoom, $700. Turn/zoom to screams or shots, $300. Should be $100. Lawsuits against places that don’t have them. l Lesson to Shooters: They are building their own cage. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org
Anticipation Example: NICS, Self-Censorship, Ballistic Shields Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l What’s the Contingency Plan for next Mass Shooting? l Virginia Tech Massacre – – – Two hours, thirty-two deaths (Apr 2007) One individual (Seung-Hui Cho) Mental illness history Relished the standoff (self-styled gunslinger) NBC, CNN aired parts of his manifesto, still on You. Tube today – NICS (Nat’l Instant Criminal Background Check) strengthened (those judged mentally unsound unable to purchase guns). l Stronger NICS / Gun Control Laws (happened) l Stronger Media Self-Censorship Codes and Laws – Clarification of Glorification (Pandering) l Subsidized Ballistic Shields – – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 20 -50 lbs, stop ALL handguns, 90% of rifles. Shotports, built in tasers. $1500, should be $200. Avail. like fire extinguishers. Lawsuits against places that don’t have them. Home versions have integrated 911 cellphones. l Lesson to Shooters: Rapid takedowns. © 2008 Accelerating. org
Point-of-Contact Fingerprint PDAs Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit UK’s Lantern (2006+) allows roadside scanning wireless search of 6. 5 M fingerprint database. l Under 5 mins in 2006. Under 2 mins (2008). l Saves £ 2. 2 M annually (taking documentless suspects to station for fingerprint identification). l – l Significant fraction (“ 60%”) of documentless felons stopped by police do not give their true identity. Ten force pilot managed by Police Info Tech Org (2006). – Institutionalized sandbox/trials space. 100, 000 ordered at the cost of £ 50 million (2008) l Trial Balloon for Legal Change l – – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Point-of-contact vs. station fingerprinting voluntary Telegraphed desire to change the law, to give beat officers same legal rights regarding fingerprinting as station-based officers What’s the Best Context for launching this initiative in US? © 2008 Accelerating. org
Asymmetric Transparency: Stratellites for Global Security, Communications, Space Solar Power V. 1. 0 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Stationkeeping at 70 K feet for a year (Helios 1999+) Space-to-stratosphere powered, relayed above most atmosphere (high efficiency, no EMI or heating) Many stratellites served by each satellite Very high resolution radar and visual intelligence Uses: Theatre ops, comm. relay, missile early warning, border monitoring, city monitoring, etc. © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Humbot: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground) of our 21 st Century Global Security Paradigm Acceleration Studies Foundation Sputnik (1957) Humbot 0. 1 (2005) Humbot 1. 0 (2035? ) U. S. -Surpassing Space/Defense Tech U. S. Soldier-Enhancing Security/Warfighting Tech Global Soldier-Surpassing Security/Policing Tech A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Q: Will a U. S. -Japanese-led security consortium supply the world with Humbot 0. 3? A Chinese-Korea-led Consortium? Major strategic uncertainty. The choice is ours. Los Angeles Humbot 1. 0 will secure the Gap Countries, and may have the single greatest impact New York Palo Alto © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org on global armed forces structure of any 21 st century tech. Are we planning for this?
Networked Weapons: Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters) Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins) Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours) 2005+: Video recording. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Networked Weapons (NWs) convert security systems from intrinsically offensive intrinsically defensive assets. • GPS-on-a-chip data recorders are doable today (but still expensive). • Localizers later. 30 second ping intervals, like cellphone. • Military, large weapons first? Global handguns next? • Consumer versions with 911, audio, and video necklace (2025? ) • People who buy guns for defense want to be localized. • Get a percentage using it voluntarily, have option to require it later. © 2008 Accelerating. org © 2007 Accelerating. org
Immunity Platform: Cellphones Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Cell phone communication is a strategic defensive asset, with intrinsically stabilizing, self-balancing features. Granular ability to monitor and locate, finegrained revocation of privileges. Disaster warnings, public information. 3 G platform allows cameraphones, video recording, Neighborhood Watch. Proliferation of citizen journalism, entertainment, and entrepreneurship. Can build in immune systems (Q-Zone) CPA’s Iraq rollout was a profitmaking venture, ensuring minimum civilian access. No subsidization, no accelerated timetables, no military control. Blue. Linx Traffic. Wi. SE, Traffic. Gauge (Wireless Signal Extraction) agg. realtime cellphone data © 2008 Accelerating. org
Tech Immune Systems Example: Cellphones Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto An intrinsically defensive asset. -- Monitorable (location and content) -- Strengthen personal networks -- The mean can self-police the extremes (report scofflaws) -- Granular privileges (given and revoked) -- Can be built robustly (dynamo, shoe batts) -- Chip provides superior ID (address books) -- Hot button to security radio band © 2008 Accelerating. org
Immunity Platform: Broadband Internet Still a Wild West of Anonymity. Need: Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Secure Digital ID Packet transparency ISP Accountability Far better cybercrime policing Speed! (100 X). Soon speed will be in national interest – Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Turnpike analogy: mandated highways, mandated FTTH © 2008 Accelerating. org
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