Briefing on the 2007 Annual Ministerial Review of the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) of the UN on Emerging Ethiopia: Strengthening Efforts to Eradicate Poverty and Hunger, including through the Global Partnership for Development Mekonnen Manyazewal State Minister Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia July 3, 2007
Outline Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø The National Development Policy Framework (NDPF); Integrating MDGs in to the NDPF; The Medium-term Plan (PASDEP) & the Ethiopian MDGs; The Pillar Strategies of the PASDEP; The Framework for Financing the PASDEP; Overview of Progress in Implementation of the PASDEP; • Macroeconomic Performance; • Highlights of Key outcomes for poverty-oriented Sectors by the end of 2005/06; The M&E System of the PASDEP and hence MDGs; Challenges and Opportunities in Implementing the PASDEP and hence Ethiopia’s MDGs Plan; The Key Messages;
The National Development Policy Framework (NDPF) Ø Ø Ø From the outset, Ethiopia's overriding development policy agenda is to fight and eradicate poverty; Medium term Plans/Programs such as the SDPRP and PASDEP are primary vehicles for overall socio-economic transformation and achieving the MDGs; The SDPRP launched in 2002 following wide-ranging public consultations in 2001 was built on Agriculture, rural development & food security (Agriculture Development Led Industrialization-ADLI), decentralization and empowerment, capacity building in the public and private sector, reforms in both the justice system and the civil service; The PASDEP is a five-year (2005/06 -2009/10) strategic framework that builds on the directions pursued under SDPRP The PASDEP also embodies some bold new directions including a major focus on growth with particular emphasis on commercialisation of agriculture, private sector development, and the scaling up of resources to achieve the MDGs.
Integrating MDGs in to the NDPF Ø Ø Ø The need to depart from proceeding with business-as-usual so as to be able to seize the opportunity to move up to a different development pattern was recognized immediately following the launching of Ethiopia’s first generation PRSP (SDPRP); The poverty reduction effort of the Government of Ethiopia has taken a longer-term view with the MDGs in perspective; The PASDEP as a continuation of the SDPRP has been aligned to the MDGs through the conduct of a comprehensive MDGs Sectoral Needs Assessment which culminated with Ethiopia’s Ten Years MDGs Indicative Plan(2005/06 -2014/15); The PASDEP is the First Five Year Phase of Ethiopia’s Ten-Years MDGs Plan(2005/06 -2009/10); The Draft PASDEP widely discussed at all levels of Government as well as with non-state actors and finally endorsed by the House of Peoples Representatives (Ethiopian Parliament) in May 2006; This set the stage for implementation of the PASDEP which is now in its second year of implementation
The Pillar Strategies of the PASDEP: Road Out of Poverty Ø Ø Ø Ø Building Capacity(with particularly with focus at sub-national levels(to create capable state & private sector actors); Massive Push to Accelerate Growth & create jobs (Private Sector Development and Commercialization of Agriculture, Industry & Exports, Urban Development) Addressing the Population Challenge; Unleashing the Potentials of Ethiopian Women; Strengthen the Infrastructure Backbone of the Country; Improve Human Development; Managing Risks; These Pillars re-enforce each other and help us to optimize synergy-hence strong outcome
The Framework for Financing the PASDEP Ø Ø Ø The Total Cost Requirement for the PASDEP period projected at 332 Billion ETB with the public component including projected at 232 Billion ETB; On average 46. 4 Billion ETB per annum or an equivalent of about $5 Billion USD per annum; On the basis of business as usual assumption external grant budgeted at 7221 Million ETB & loans (external, net) budgeted at 2083 Million ETB. Altogether, 9304 Million ETB or about $1 Billion USD or an equivalent of 8% of GDP in ODA budgeted; Fiscal Deficit including grants budgeted at about 6 % of GDP; Domestic Borrowing budgeted at 4782 Million ETB(4. 1 % of GDP) The outturn [see below on overall fiscal performance]
Progress on PASDEP Implementation A: Supply Side: Real GDP Growth (% Change) Sector 2005/06 2006/07 PASDEP Target Outturn PASDEP Target Pre. Estimate Agriculture & Allied Activities 6. 4 9. 6 6. 3 10. 9 Industry 12. 3 7. 4 11. 9 10. 9 Services 6. 9 9. 2 6. 9 9. 6 GDP 7. 4 9. 6 7. 3 11. 7 General Inflation 8. 6 12. 3 8. 2 17. 3 (End May 2007)
B: Demand Side GDP Components as a Ratio to GDP @ cmp (%) Item 2005/06 2006/07 PASDEP Target Outturn PASDEP Target Estimate Gross Domestic Capital Formation 22. 0 20. 0 23. 0 22. 0 Consumption Expenditure 93. 8 94. 8 93. 0 92. 0 Export of Goods & Non- 16. 2 Factor Services 15. 0 16. 9 17. 0 Import of Goods & Non 32. 1 -Factor Services 33. 0 32. 9 35. 0 Resource Gap -15. 9 -18. 0 -16. 0 -18. 0 Domestic Saving 6. 2 5. 2 7. 0 8. 0
C: Trends in Spending on Pro-poor Sectors as %of Total Public Spending(%) Sector 2001/02 2002/03 22003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 (Estimate) (Budget) Agriculture & 9. 2 Rural Development, Food Security 8. 1 13. 4 16. 3 16. 8 16. 4 Education 14. 2 16. 1 20. 4 19. 7 21. 8 16. 5 Health 5. 9 4. 3 4. 8 4. 6 6. 1 Roads 10. 7 9. 9 9. 6 11. 3 14. 8 12. 7 Water & Sanitation 2. 8 2. 9 2. 0 4. 5 4. 4 6. 9 Total 42 50 57 62 60 43
D: The Outturn for the 2005/06 Resource Envelope Item Average Performance Growth Rate Against PASDEP Targets(%) (2003/042005/06) Performance Against Budget(%) Performance Against 2004/05 Outturn(%) Domestic Revenue 21 87 90 125 Tax Revenue 20 88 91 114 Non Tax Revenue 26 85 85 169 External Grants -5 52 52 82 Domestic Revenue and Grants 14 78 80 115 Total Expenditure 32. 0 25. 4 34. 0 31. 9 Poverty-oriented Expenditure 20. 0 16. 0 24. 5 19. 1
E: External Sector(% of GDP) Item 2005/06 2006/07 PASDEP Target Outturn PASDEP Target Pre. Estimate Merchandize Export 7. 9 8. 0 8. 7 8. 3 Merchandize Imports 30. 1 34. 0 30. 9 33. 9 Trade Balance -22. 2 -26. 0 -22. 2 -25. 6 Growth Rates (% Change over previous year) Item 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Average Merchandize Export (Value in USD) 24. 4 41. 1 18. 1 28. 0 Merchandize Imports (Value in USD) 39. 3 40. 4 26. 4 35. 0
F: Highlights of Key Outcomes for poverty-oriented Sectors Indicator 1999/00 2004/05 2005/06 PASDEP Target The Macro economy Real GDP Growth Rate(%) 5. 4 10. 5 9. 6 7. 0 Per Capita Real GDP Growth Rate(%) 2. 4 8. 0 7. 1 4. 4 Overall Poverty Head Count Index(%) 44. 2 38. 7 35 29 Food Poverty Head Count Index(%) 42. 0 37. 8 35 28 Stunting (%) 57 47 45 35 Wasting(%) 10 8 6. 5 5. 4 Gross Enrollment Rate(%) 61. 0 79. 8 91. 3 109. 7 Grade 5 Completion Rate(%) 48. 0 57 63. 0 136. 6 Grade 8 Completion Rate(%) 27. 0 34 42 62. 7 Girls/Boys Ratio 0. 45 0. 84 0. 90 0. 97 Agriculture, Rural Development & Food Security Education
----Highlights of key Outcomes for poverty-oriented Sectors Indicator 1999/00 2004/05 Progress To Date (2005/06) PASDEP Target DPT 3 Vaccination (%) 50 61 79 80 Utilization of Health Facilities(%) 27 30 76. 4 100 Polio Vaccination 46 55 57 70 Proportion of Households in Malaria-prone areas with two bed nets(%) - 1 43 100 Proportion of Mothers with access to family planning services(%) 8 15 36 80 Health Extension Workers to Population - 1: 25000 1: 7800 1: 2500 24 35 47. 3 84. 5 Road Density(km/1000 sq. km) 29. 0 33. 2 36. 0 54. 1 Roads in Good Condition 48 64 68 84 Time Spent (hours) to reach an all weather roads 7 5 4. 8 3. 2 Health Water % of Population with access to clean water Roads
G: Highlights of Required Rate of Change and Recent Trends to Meet MDGs Indicator Past Trends Recent Trends 2005/06 -2006/07 Required Rate of Change to reach MDGs (% pa) (1995 -2000) (% pa) Recent Trends (2000 -2005 (% pa) Real GDP Growth Rate(%) 4. 9 5. 5 10. 7 7. 0 Per Capita Real GDP Growth Rate(%) 1. 9 2. 6 7. 0 4. 4 Poverty Head Count -0. 73 -2. 5 -3. 9 -3. 8 Food Poverty Head Count -2. 4 -3. 0 -3. 2 Gross Primary Enrollment 12. 4 5. 0 9. 0 3. 8 Under 5 Child Mortality -1. 0 -5. 0 -6. 5 -7. 0 Access to Clean Water 1. 0 6. 5 7. 0 6. 5
The M&E System of the PASDEP and hence MDGs Ø Ø Ø Ø The M&E System for the PASDEP and hence MDGs is built on Existing Structures/systems; The development of Statistics is guided by the Medium-term National Statistical Program jointly formulated by the MOFED and CSA and has been implemented since 1994; The Welfare Monitoring System Program (WMSP) has been in place since 1996; The M&E Action Plan Jointly formulated by MOFED and CSA is a continuation of the WMSP; The M&E System has been guided by the M&E Action Plan supported by the DAG since 2005; The M&E System is forward looking taking the MDGs in perspective; The M&E Action Plan is complemented by Sectoral M&E Systems;
‘What can not be Measured Can not be Done’ Ø The fact that Ethiopia has received an award for best practices in establishing and institutionalizing a well integrated, home grown and forward-looking (with MDGs in perspective) M&E system at the Third International Roundtable Conference on Managing for Development Results (Mf. DR) held in Hanoi, Vietnam, from February 5 -8, 2007 is a recognition of the country's advanced status in integrating the MDGs in to the national development planning processes.
Challenges, Opportunities & Key Messages A: The Challenges Ø Ø Ø The assessment of performance to date clearly shows substantive progress being made by Ethiopia. However, we believe that we still need to enhance progress as there is different level of performance among Ethiopia’s regional states; There is issue of capacity to implement particularly at sub-national levels; Ethiopia’s Private Sector Capacity is also limited; Finance is also a constraint on implementation at a scale that is required; Ethiopia is also exposed to risks-weather induced and trade related; These are broadly our challenges
B: Opportunities Despite the above cited challenges, there a number of developments that could result in more progress being made than is currently expected. They consist of both encouraging developments in the recent past, and possible new developments that could eventuate in the next few years. These include the following: Ø Ø Ø Ø Implementation of the-ongoing National Capacity Building Program; Existence of successful on-going sector development programs; The success of the domestic resource mobilization effort which is currently underway; The momentum effects of past investments on human development and physical infrastructure; The opening up of the environment for private investment and business activity; Global initiatives for scaling up aid to LDCs and debt relief ; The Development potential of the country in terms of natural resource endowments, the large untapped domestic market and labor force all of which are under exploited; The potential impact of agricultural transformation agenda and on-going food security programs which have already started to pay-off ;
Key Messages Ø Ø Development interventions will only be effective if they are guided by long and medium-term home grown development strategies and plans internalizing the MDGs; To eradicate poverty and end hunger, high and sustained growth is critical for Ethiopia. We know there is no room for complacency & Ethiopia has to sustain the recent high growth rate for attaining the MDGs and lasting impact on poverty; We believe that this growth should be broad-based. Hence the continued focus on rural growth re-enforced by strong rural-urban linkages. Our rural growth agenda do also pay particular attention to environment and natural resource management; For a long time, macroeconomic stability has been a positive feature of the Ethiopian economy. We still intend to have this stance, but in a way that provide sufficient space for public investment particularly in human development and infrastructure;
----Key Messages Ø Ø Medium-term programs such as the SDPRP and its successor plan (the PASDEP) are important vehicles towards reaching the MDGs. Taking note of the good performance to date and given the ambitious and still well thought out programs being implemented in the areas of food security and rural development, Health Extension Package (HEP), Urban Housing Programs, Universal Access Program for Water Supply, rural roads, electricity, telecommunication, women and youth packages, and MSE development; the Government believes that Ethiopia’s development effort is well grounded and has a good chance of meeting the MDGs during the remaining years. What is needed is a big push; Given the size, topography, diversity of the country; infrastructure investment expansion needs to be seen from the standpoint of enhancing and sustaining propoor growth, which is a necessary condition for poverty reduction and its ultimate eradication. Given also that Ethiopia is required to diversify exports, the need for being competitive in the international market calls for infrastructure expansion to reduce per unit transport and delivery costs of export commodities. Accordingly, investment expansion in those areas (human development and infrastructure expansion) is seen as a top priority given that the country’s human and physical capital has not yet reached its critical minimum. The Government believes that the current growth momentum could not be maintained with out enhancing our human and physical capital;
Ø Ø Ø ----Key Messages Enhancing trade particularly expanding and diversifying exports is also critical. We are taking necessary actions to make use of opportunities offered to us through market access such as EBA through EU and AGOA through USA , China, etc; Enhanced use and management of our water resources is another critical area of emphasis given that our economy is susceptible to weather risks given that the bulk of our agriculture is rain-fed. Utmost use of our water resource potential through water harvesting, small scale irrigation , and medium and large scale irrigation is a way out to insulate our agriculture from weather related risks(rain failures); Building partnership with research and higher education institutions and think-tanks is of paramount importance to utilize local expertise (build national capacity) and thereby strengthening in-house analytical capacity of government institutions
----Key Messages Ø Ethiopia has made significant improvement in business and investment climate to create a dynamic private sector and contribute to economic transformation. The recent vibrancy in the private sector (both domestic and foreign) including increasing trade, investment, employment and income growth clearly shows that the private sector is making its contribution to Ethiopia's development. PASDEP intends to deepen the business and investment environment for accelerating and sustaining private sector led growth in Ethiopia;
----Key Messages Ø Ø Ensuring gender equity is also another critical issue that is being addressed in order that Ethiopia accelerate growth to achieve the MDGs and eradicate poverty. Since the 1990’s, Ethiopia has moved firmly to promote and protect the rights of women to participate in the political, economic and social processes of the country- from the constitution to passing and revision of various laws, proclamation of rural development, education, health etc. Further, advances are still required in implementing the various gender equity initiatives particularly the National Action Plan for Gender equity; In the Ethiopian context, designing and implementing the economic transformation agenda in synergy with state transformation agenda through devolution and empowerment and civil service reform is central for peace, democracy and development, hence eradicating poverty;
----Key Messages Ø Ø The on-going implementation of public sector capacity building program including civil service reform, district level decentralization programme is intended to build a capable, accountable, and effective state. The priority focus is to empower and build-up the capacities of the lowest echelons of regional governments- woredas and kebeles by building effective democratic and public institutions. This will enhance democratic participation, governance and hence improve the delivery of services and contribute to poverty eradication; The Government has recognized that financing is a critical challenge in implementing the PASDEP and attain MDGs. Realizing that enhancing development is our responsibility, Ethiopia is making positive progress in domestic resource mobilization first; implementation of the comprehensive tax reform program, second; mobilizing private savings and investment as well as social mobilization and civil society resources;
----Key Messages Ø Ø Partnership for development through external finance is also complementing our effort. We have benefited from debt relief. However, as has been witnessed during the first two years of implementing the PASDEP (2005/06 and 2006/07), external finance (ODA) that passes through the budget has been levelling off even compared to the trend (business as usual) as projected in the PASDEP; By way of enhancing development partnership, the Government has set se up a Dialogue Architecture-at policy level-the High Level Forum(HLF) and various sectoral forums. We have also established Joint Government-Partners Harmonization Task Force to take forward the Paris Declaration. A number of multi-lateral partners(World Bank, EU, and Af. DB) and bilateral (UK, Ireland, Canada) have moved to supporting budgets and sector programs using public finance system. The UN Country Team are also harmonizing and aligning with PASDEP, a good example being the current United Nation Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF II), spanning the period, 2007 -2011;
----Key Messages Ø Ø Ø As Ethiopia enters in to the third year of implementing the PASDEP (2007/08), there is an urgent need to scale up ODA towards full-scale implementation of the PASDEP and hence MDGs consistent with Monterrey, Gleneagles, and Blair’s Commission Report; On a per capita basis Ethiopia’s ODA is half of that of the SSA average. We expect doubling of our Per Capita ODA to help us accelerate progress towards the attainment of MDGs; In conclusion, can Ethiopia pull off? Yes, It can. Progress to date, and opportunities for a big push. More importantly, the Ethiopian people has spoken. They want and are determined to make poverty history. This “I can do” attitude is the greatest asset and value to attain the MDGs and ultimately to eradicate poverty;
Thank You
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