Brazil Energy & Power VIII The present scenario in Brazilian Oil & Gas sector Magda Chambriard Director Brazilian Petroleum Agency
Institutional evolution O&G sector in Brazil New Regulatory Framework Constitutional Amendment Nº 9/95 Law nº 9. 478/97 – Creation of ANP & CNPE (National Energy Policy Council) Pre-salt IM group Implementation of the ANP Self-sufficiency Pre-salt discovery Directive CNPE nº 8/03 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Concession contracts signed with Petrobras (Round Zero) Bills for the Pre-Salt areas
Current scenario (2009) Proven Reserves(*) Oil – ~13 billion bbl Gas – ~366 billion m 3 (*) without pre-salt discoveries Production Oil e LGN – 2, 03 million bbl/day Gas – 57, 9 million m 3/day Imports/exports balance Companies Oil – 132, 5 thousand bbl/day Gas – 23, 5 million m 3/day 39 national companies 38 foreign companies
Petroleum proven reserves Billion barrels About 30 billion bbl 32 Tupi, Iracema, Iara, Guará, Franco, Jubarte, Cachalote, Baleia Franca 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Future
The pre-salt as a new paradigm 2 -ANP-2 -RJS 2 -ANP-1 -RJS Dry well Wells being drilled (APR/2010) Oil and Gas Pre-Salt Area Pre-Salt Polygon (Bill of Law 5. 938/2009) Fields producing/under development Exploratory Rounds (Rounds) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9
New regulatory framework New rules for E&P in the pre-salt area: Four (04) bills Onerous assignment of rights, which shall grant Petrobras the right to produce in certain areas of the pre-salt, up to 5 billion boe Creation of a new state controlled company: Pré-Sal Petróleo S. A. Formation of a Social Fund Law nº 12. 276/10 Law nº 12. 304/10 House of representatives Productionsharing agreements for E&P in the unlicensed pre -salt areas Senate
The decision of drilling wells to increase pre-salt value Franco 2 -ANP-1 -RJS Pre-Salt Area (PL 5. 938/09) Libra 2 -ANP-2 A-RJS TAC Limit (drilling) Exclusion Area 3 D Seismic Pub Exc Pos 3 D Seismic Conf Non. Exc Pos 2 D Seismic Conf Non. Exc Pos Wells being drilled (APR/2010) Oil Óil and Gas Pre-Salt Polygon (Bill of Law 5. 938/2009) Fields producing/under development Exploratory Rounds (Rounds) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9
The decision of drilling wells to increase pre-salt value 2 -ANP-1 -RJS 2 -ANP-2 A-RJS Franco discovery (2 -ANP-1 -RJS) Forecasted recoverable volume 5 bi bbl 3 D structural map of the salt base as interpreted by the ANP technical staff (2010)
Brazilian opportunities: pre-salt Campos & Santos basins (50 billion barrels? ) Campos basin Santos basin If proven the way ANP forecasted, Brazil will need to invest heavily in infrastructure (platforms, pipelines, oil pipelines, ports, ships, steel, etc. ). ANP waits for this year the Tupi’s Commerciality Declaration. Tupi Pilot: 100, 000 bpd FPSO capacity. 8 standardized FPSOs (150, 000 bpd) already contracted by Petrobras. Fonte: PETROBRAS, 2009
Brazilian opportunities: new bidding rounds After the approval of the Pre -salt bills ANP shall bid: Pre-salt areas under PSC (~ 2, 3% sedimentary area) Other areas under concession contracts (> 97% sedimentary area) ANP waits for CNPE approval the 11 th Bid Round The 11 th Bid Round shall focus on the Brazilian equatorial margin
Pre-salt safety challenges Drilling Production 2, 200 m WD 2, 000 m Salt Layer High productivity of the wells Pipelines integrity CO 2 (08 a 12%) Reservoirs Depth: 5, 000 a 6, 500 m
Safety - ANP Resolution Nº 43/2007 Focus on the Safety Management System Regulatory Framework for Offshore Safety Performance-Based/Goal Setting Model Fewer prescriptive requirements Non-restrictive approach to technological innovations Minimum requirements for: Mechanical Integrity, Risk Assessment, Contractors Selection, Internal Audits, Incident Investigations, Management of Change, Safe Working Practices, Simultaneous Operations, etc ANP Verification Method Safety Documentation Analysis (Solution Acceptance) Onboard Audits (Safety System Verification) Injunction Actions (Enforcement)
Safety - ANP Resolution Nº 43/2007 Facilities and Technology Management, Leadership and Personnel MP 10: Design, Construction, Installation and Decommissioning MP 1: Culture of Safety, Commitment MP 11: Critical Operational Safety and Managerial Responsibility Elements MP 2: Involvement of Personnel MP 12: Risk Identification and Analysis MP 3: Personnel Qualification, Training MP 13: Mechanical Integrity and Performance MP 14: Planning and Management of MP 4: Work Environment and Human Major Emergencies The Resolution might be revised after the publication of the Gulf of Factors MP 5: Selection, Control and Mexico oil spill report Management of Contracted Operational Practices MP 6: Monitoring and Continuous Improvement of Performance MP 15: Operational Procedures MP 7: Audits MP 16: Management of Change (MOC) MP 8: Information and Documentation MP 17: Safe Working Practices and Management Control Procedures in Special MP 9: Incident Investigation Activities
Brazilian Contingency Plan Present day: Individual Emergency Plan + Petrobras’ Contingency Plan – 9 Environmental Defense Centers, 200 vessels (14 large ones) and 80 aircrafts Brazilian Contingency Plan: Mines & Energy and Environment Ministries, ANP, Navy, Civil Defense and Petrobras are working on the elaboration of the plan that should be ready in the coming months
Oil spill modeling – Tupi long-term test Worst case scenario: spill of the whole volume of an FPSO (24 hours of spill – 482, 000 bbl) Probability of oil presence – 31 days simulation No trajectory reached the coast! Summer Winter But… 86 days of spill as the Gulf of Mexico? Individual Emergency Plan: 1 st vessel in 2 hours and 52 minutes. In about 36 hours, all vessels arrive on the local Source: PETROBRAS, 2008
Final remarks v The Pre-Salt is a new paradigm in Brazil; v Brazil shall apply a mixed regulatory framework for the petroleum sector (Production-sharing Contract, Concession Contract and Onerous Assignment); v ANP has a satisfactory regulation about the operational safety, but the experience of Gulf of Mexico oil spill might be used; v ANP waits for CNPE approval to launch the 11º bid-round focusing the equatorial margin; v And to promote a bid round focusing pre-salt opportunities; v In Brazil, opportunities go far beyond the pre-salt.
www. anp. gov. br Claudia Rabello – crabello@anp. gov. br
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