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Boris Žitnik Country Manager IDC Croatia Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002 Rijeka, 12 -14 lipnja Boris Žitnik Country Manager IDC Croatia Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002 Rijeka, 12 -14 lipnja 2002 www. idc. com

Agenda • IT Market Developments • Internet Market Figures • About IDC Agenda • IT Market Developments • Internet Market Figures • About IDC

The New Era of IT Development IT Spending ($B) IT Users (M) 5, 000 The New Era of IT Development IT Spending ($B) IT Users (M) 5, 000 100 10 Automate Back-Office 1970 1980 Automate Front-Office 1990 Automate Customers 2000 50 2010

2001 Dot-com crash to global recession IT industry on the ropes Telecom winter September 2001 Dot-com crash to global recession IT industry on the ropes Telecom winter September 11

Last Year’s Spending Collapse Worldwide IT Spending Growth % September 11 drops 4% off Last Year’s Spending Collapse Worldwide IT Spending Growth % September 11 drops 4% off growth Source: IDC 2002

The IT Business Cycle Pattern … which eventually leads to a new technology … The IT Business Cycle Pattern … which eventually leads to a new technology … New technology initiates a new paradigm, creating a speculative bubble Long term exploitation of the new paradigm begins, with technology and business innovations that work within the constraints of current mega trends … Reality strikes within 5 years, triggering a temporary slowdown

The Current Rebound Worldwide Estimated Hardware Spending by Quarter $ Billions Quarterly Average Quarterly The Current Rebound Worldwide Estimated Hardware Spending by Quarter $ Billions Quarterly Average Quarterly Spending Source: IDC 2002, estimated based on IDC WW Black Book

Globalization vs. Regional Trends Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, Globalization vs. Regional Trends Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have been catching the low-hanging fruits of globalization Next decade, we will be dealing with major political and economic discontinuities As a result: 1) Globalization Trends will go through a number of “stop -and-go” 2) We will experience lot more economic conflicts and commercial wars among US, Europe and China

Globalization vs. Regional Trends 3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of Globalization vs. Regional Trends 3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of fast Regionalization Processes 4) We will experience a new role of geographies and mushrooming of new business opportunities and regional players in Europe 5) Europe will be a lot more attractive Market, because European Companies will be fighting for competitiveness, they’ll need leading technologies and infrastructures to become more efficient 6) Global Product Lines vs. Geographies

Present Market Scenario • We come from a very tough year • Our perception Present Market Scenario • We come from a very tough year • Our perception is that the market has bottomed out in the last quarter of 2001, and that a slow, cautious and progressive recovery is in place • WW IT spending 2002… 5%; . . . 2003… 10% • Main positive indicators to support this perception 1) IDC’s Opportunity map 2) CIO magazine Recent Tech Poll 3) Our own sales are catching up

IDC’s Treasure Map Mission Critical Applications SW Internet and App. Develop&Infrastructure IT Services. Segments” IDC’s Treasure Map Mission Critical Applications SW Internet and App. Develop&Infrastructure IT Services. Segments” Other “Hot x. SP Services 100, 0% CAGR 01 -02 33. 2% CAGR 01 -02 18. 2% Asp e. Learning 60, 0% CAGR 2001 -2002 XML & Virtual DB. 50, 0% IT Security Doc. & Cont. Mngm. SCA Application Integration Applic. Server 40, 0% Internet Services Businesware Mngt Syst. 30, 0% Web Server SW Security SW 20, 0% 10, 0% System Mngm SW Syst. Integr. IT Consulting CAGR 01 -02 9. 8% 0, 0% Apps Outs Netw&Dtop Outs Apps Life. Cycle Mngm e. COMM SW Supp. Custom Sw. IS Outs. Proc. Serv. HW Maint. CRM DW/BI ERM CAGR 01 -02 23%

IT Spending 2001 Western Europe $307. 2 billion (27. 9% of WW) CEE $13. IT Spending 2001 Western Europe $307. 2 billion (27. 9% of WW) CEE $13. 1 billion (1. 2% of WW) Croatia $390 million (2, 9% of CEE) Total = $1. 101 billion

IT Spending/per capita IT spending per capita in CEE, 2001 ($) Izvor: IDC, 2002 IT Spending/per capita IT spending per capita in CEE, 2001 ($) Izvor: IDC, 2002

IT Spending in Croatia, 1996 - 2003 IT spending ($ million) Source: IDC, 2002 IT Spending in Croatia, 1996 - 2003 IT spending ($ million) Source: IDC, 2002

Internet Figures • Internet Users • e. Commerce Internet Figures • Internet Users • e. Commerce

Internet Users – Doubling in Numbers Internet Users Worldwide 33% buy over the Web Internet Users – Doubling in Numbers Internet Users Worldwide 33% buy over the Web 2001 500 Million $500 billion B 2 C, 6 -fold increase 2004 900 Million Source: IDC ICMM V 7. 0

Internet Users (year-end 2001) Internet users (million) WW 500, 2 Europe 167, 4 Western Internet Users (year-end 2001) Internet users (million) WW 500, 2 Europe 167, 4 Western Europe 151, 3 CEE Croatia Source: IDC, 2002 16, 1 0, 5

e. Commerce Worldwide $2. 5 T e. Business 2. 0 e. Business 1. 0 e. Commerce Worldwide $2. 5 T e. Business 2. 0 e. Business 1. 0 $0. 1 T

e. Commerce Spending, 2001 ($ billion) Source: IDC, 2002 e. Commerce Spending, 2001 ($ billion) Source: IDC, 2002

Building More e. Businesses with Web Sites (Millions Worldwide) 25 $36 billion networked infrastructure Building More e. Businesses with Web Sites (Millions Worldwide) 25 $36 billion networked infrastructure management services 20 15 10 $85 billion Web hosting 5 0 2001 All Web Sites 2002 2003 Outsourced Source: IDC ICMM V 7. 0 2004

Mobile & Wireless: Landscape New Internet Users 1994– 2001 New Internet Users 2002– 2006 Mobile & Wireless: Landscape New Internet Users 1994– 2001 New Internet Users 2002– 2006 Mobile 479 M Mobile 94 M 500 M 553 M Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model V 8. 1, 2002

IDC Hrvatska • IDC u Hrvatskoj… 1996. / OMNIAconsult • IDC Hrvatska …srpanj 2001. IDC Hrvatska • IDC u Hrvatskoj… 1996. / OMNIAconsult • IDC Hrvatska …srpanj 2001.

Područja djelovanja • Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti) • Istraživanja Područja djelovanja • Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti) • Istraživanja i projekti po narudžbi • Consulting • IT konferencije

“On The Shelf” produkti • Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers) • Communications (Internet Economy, “On The Shelf” produkti • Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers) • Communications (Internet Economy, Telecom) • Office Equipment (Printers quarterly and annual, MFP, Copiers, Handheld) • Software & Services (IT Services, EAS) • Other (IT Executive Tracker)

Ostali produkti Usluge • Istraživački projekti po narudžbi • Inquiry hours • Prezentacije IT Ostali produkti Usluge • Istraživački projekti po narudžbi • Inquiry hours • Prezentacije IT Konferencije • Storage Roadshow, 02. 05. 2002.