Bonds A bond is a long-term debt instrument in which a borrower agrees to make payments of principal and interest, on specific dates, to the holders of the bond. 1
Bond Characteristics Par (face) value: principal amount to be repaid at maturity Coupon rate, coupon payment: Each period (may be every 6 months, every year etc. ) there is coupon payment. It is a fixed amount (unless it is a floating rate bond) Floating rate may be tied to t-bill rate. It has caps or floors, it may be convertible to fixed rate. Another type: zero coupon bonds Maturity: maturity date on which the contract expires and principal (face value) is repaid 2
Call provision issuer may call the bond for redemption before maturity. It is an option given to the issuer. Callable bonds therefore sell at a Discount Call premium: cost to the issuer of calling a bond issue. It typically declines over time Call protection: exists if a bond can not be called for a period of time after its issuance 3
Sinking fund arrangement requires the issuer to retire a portion of the bond each year How: n Redeem a portion, determine by lottery (no call premium) n Buy on the open market n issuer may deposit cash with a trustee rather than repurchasing bonds Sinking funds are designed to protect bondholders Large amounts of cash outflow at maturity may create a problem for the issuer 4
Other features: n n Bond may be convertible to common stock Bonds may be packaged together with warrants (warrant: a long-term option to buy a stated number of common stock at a specified price) Income bond: A company agrees to pay interest only if it meets a threshold income requirement (e. g. interest will be paid at 12% if income is greater than $15 million) Indexed bond: interest paid is based on Consumer Price Index (plus real rate) 5
Bond Value = PV of cash flows it will generate Given kd, N, INT, M VB= INT PVIFAkd, N + M PVIFkd, N Coupon rate vs kd (current market rate) The discount rate (kd ) is the opportunity cost of capital, and is the rate that could be earned on alternative investments of equal risk. ki = k* + IP + MRP + DRP + LP 6
Semiannual Coupons Coupon rate is given as APR (annualized rate) plus frequency of coupon payments 7
Relationship between coupon rate, required yield, and price As yields in the marketplace change, the only variable that can change to compensate an investor for the new required yield in the market is the price of the bond. When the coupon rate is equal to the required yield, the price of the bond will be equal to its par value. 8
Relationship between coupon rate, required yield, and price When yields in the marketplace rise above the coupon rate at a given point in time, the price of the bond adjusts so that an investor thinking of the purchase of the bond can realize some additional interest. If it did not, investors would not buy the issue because it offers a below market rate. The opposite holds if yields in the marketplace fall below the coupon rate. when kd<kc VB > M kd=kc VB = M kd>kc VB < M Selling at a premium Selling at par Selling at a discount 9
Evolution of bond value over time Special case: kd=constant over time Example: M=1, 000 N=30 years kc = 10% annual coupon Special case: kd=constant over time 10
The graph shows advantage or disadvantage will last for a shorter period time as time passes 11
Bond Yields YTM YTC CY yield to maturity yield to call current yield YTM : current required rate of return on a bond. It is same as kd, or promised return Given P(current price), N, INT, M P = INT PVIFAkd, N + M PVIFkd, N 12
yield to call YTC : rate of return earned on a bond if it is called before its maturity date If current YTM < kc (i. e. premium bond) and bond is callable. then it is likely to be called P= INT PVIFAk, TTC + Pc PVIFk, TTC P is current market price of the bond Pc is call price (usually M+INT) Solve for k, it is YTC 13
Current yield: CYt: Current yield relates the annual coupon interest to the market price. The current yield calculation takes into account only the coupon interest and no other source of return that will affect an investor’s yield. No consideration is given to capital gain/loss. The time value of money is also ignored. 14
What is YTM: The yield-to-maturity on a bond is the single interest rate that, if paid by a bank on the amount invested, would enable the investor to obtain all the payments promised by the security in question. Equivalently, YTM is the discount rate that makes the present value of the promised future cash flows equal in sum to the current market price of the bond. 15
YTM n n n so YTM is a promised yield but it is not the expected yield unless P(default)=0 it is an ex ante return 16
YTM n n YTM calculations do not take into account any changes in the market value of a security before maturity. This fact might be interpreted as implying that the owner has no interest in selling the instrument before maturity, no matter what happens to his or her situation. The calculation also fails to treat intermediate payments in a fully satisfactory way. An owner who does not wish to spend interest payments might choose to buy more of these securities. But the number that can be bought at any time depends on the price at that time, and YTM calculations fail to take this consideration into account. 17
Holding-Period Return A measure that can be used for any investment is its holdingperiod return. The idea is to specify a holding period and then assume that any payments received during that period will be reinvested. Holding period is defined as the length of time over which an investor is assumed to invest a given sum of money. n n Although assumptions may differ from case to case, the usual procedure assumes that any payment received from a security will be used to purchase more units of that security at then current market price. When this procedure is applied, the performance of a security can be measured by comparing the value obtained in this manner at the end of the holding period with the value at the beginning. 18
Holding-Period Return if there are N years in the holding period, rhp can be converted into an equivalent annual rate: (1+rhp, annual )N = rhp 19
Example Consider a 5% annual coupon bond with $1, 000 face value and 3 years to maturity. Its current market price is. YTM is 8%. It is the interest rate that solves the following equation $922. 69. YTM calculation assumes: • that the owner will receive those 3 cash flows, i. e. bond will be held until maturity. • coupons will be reinvested • the reinvested coupons will earn k percent return per year (which is the current YTM we will find). 20
Example n n It is easier to see this as follows: Original investment: $922. 69 at t=0 Final Value: $50(1+k 1)2+$50(1+k 2)+$1, 050 at t=3 Our choice of k 1 and k 2 reflect our reinvestment rate assumption 21
Example Question: What is the average annual rate earned from this investment? $922. 69(1+kavg)3 = $50(1+k 1)2+$50(1+k 2)+$1, 050 YTM concept solves this equation by assuming kavg = k 1 = k 2 Using bank analogy above: Generates same cash flows 22
Holding period return does not make the above assumptions n It does not assume bond will be held till maturity n It requires you to know in advance the reinvestment rate(s) for your coupons n But it is flexible about those rates i. e. it does not assume kavg = k 1 = k 2 So compared to YTM calculation we need to know more: n Our horizon: when we will sell the bond n Reinvestment rates n Selling price of the bond at the end of our horizon 23
Holding period return For example, assume we choose 2 years as our horizon. i. e. we will sell the bond after 2 years If we further assume that we will deposit coupons into a bank account (one year time deposit) 24
Holding period return Original investment: $922. 69 Final Value: $50(1+3%) +$50+$990. 65 =$1, 092. 15 Question: at t=0 at t=2 What is the average annual rate earned from this investment? $922. 69(1+kavg)2 = $1, 092. 15 kavg =8. 80% is the holding period return 25
different reinvestment rate If we use a different reinvestment rate assumption, for example reinvesting coupons on the same bond, then we need the following information At time 1 we buy =0. 052 shares of the same bond At time 2 we will get coupon =1. 052*50=$52. 60 Sell our 1. 052 shares of the bond for 1. 052*990. 65=$1, 042. 16 Original investment: $922. 69 Final Value: $52. 60+$1, 042. 16=$1, 094. 76 $922. 69(1+kavg)2 =$1, 094. 76 kavg = 8. 93% 26
Example Assume that all coupons are reinvested at the new YTM Investor’s horizon i. e. when liquidation occurs is important 27
Example Note that if your holding period is 5 years, your equivalent annual holding period return is 9. 00% which is equal to the YTM at the time of purchase 28
Example 29
Example Note that if your holding period is 5 years, your equivalent annual holding period return is 9. 00% which is equal to the YTM at the time of purchase 30
What does the example show: n n n When you buy the bond you do not know if ytm is going to change and if it is in what direction. Note that 5 year horizon gives you 9% average annual holding period return no matter if ytm falls or rises by 1 percent. 5 year is the value of another measure (which we will not discuss in this course) called the duration. If your horizon is 5 years, then reinvestment rate and price effects cancel each other and your average annual holding period return equals ytm at the time of the purchase. 31
Yield to Call Example: 10 year bond 10% semiannual coupon payment selling for $1, 133. 9 Can be called after 4 years. If YTM stays at this rate (or falls) the issuer may call it. (To buy it back at a price lower than the market price) Find YTC P=1, 133. 9= 50 PVIFAk, 8 + 1, 050 PVIFk, 8 what is YTM at this time P=1133. 9= 50 PVIFAk, 20 + 1000 PVIFk, 20 As YTM decreases bond is more likely to be called The company may use refunding strategy 32
Yield to Call note that in the example above kc>YTM>YTC What happens to YTC as YTM decreases? P increases so YTC has also to fall Example: if we assume current price=$885. 30 YTC= 14% YTM= 12% note that in this example kc<YTM<YTC 33
Riskiness of a bond Interest rate risk is the concern that rising kd will cause the value of a bond to fall. Means as kd VB Exposure is higher on bonds with longer maturities ceteris paribus Example: 10% annual coupon bonds with 1 year and 10 years to maturity. When yield to maturity changes 34
Reinvestment rate risk is the concern that kd will fall, and future CFs will have to be reinvested at lower rates, hence reducing income. As kd funds will be reinvested at a lower rate many bonds will be called Even if they are not called, funds will be reinvested at a lower rate at maturity Exposure is higher on bonds with shorter maturities ceteris paribus 35
Default Risk Recall interest rate= k* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP Types of corporate bonds Bond ratings Junk bonds Bankruptcy and reorganization Default risk depends on financial strength of issuer Terms of bond contract Same corporation may have several types of bonds outstanding. They may have different default risks due to differences in seniority and collateralization. 36
types of bonds Mortgage bond: Represents debt that is secured by the pledge of specific property. In the event of default, the bondholders are entitled to obtain the property in question and sell it to satisfy their claims on the firm. Debenture: An unsecured debt backed only by the credit worthiness of the borrower. There is no collateral, and the agreement is documented by an indenture. To protect the holders of such bonds, the indenture will usually limit the future issuance of secured as well as any additional unsecured debt. Subordinated debenture: 37
Why are ratings important? They affect cost of borrowing for firms Institutional investors can only buy investment grade bonds Individual issue ratings may change over time (up or downgrading possible) Junk bonds (speculative grade bonds) Have high default risk and therefore have required return Junk bond market was developed in early 1980 s and it collapsed in early 1990 s These bonds are used by companies to finance: a leveraged buyout a merger a troubled company 38
Bankruptcy and reorganization bankruptcy may lead to either liquidation or reorganization calls for the restructuring of existing debt interest rate maturity bond holders may get equity stake decision depends on : value of reorganized firm > or < liquidation value of firm’s assets 39
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