Biophysical and Socioeconomic Assessments The LOICZ Approach Liana

Biophysical and Socioeconomic Assessments: The LOICZ* Approach Liana Talaue-Mc. Manus Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science University of Miami LOICZ Nutrient Budget & Typology Teams *Land-Ocean Interaction in the Coastal Zone

Objectives • LOICZ framework in assessing the role of the global coast in material (carbon, nutrients, freshwater) delivery and cycling. • A resource in identifying/ formulating indicators for themes on coastal water quality and eutrophication • Scale: – Local: catchments and associated estuarine areas – Regional and global carbon assessments

Outline • Goals of LOICZ as a Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) • Biophysical approaches • Socio-economic approaches • Future directions

· anthropogenic influence · land use, climate, sea level on material fluxes and coastal morphodynamics · interphase with integrated coastal management · trace gas emissions · source/ sink for Carbon dioxide · mass and P balances of C, N

LOICZ Global Typology S C Vertical fluxes A Horizontal fluxes L Regional E S Basins Coastal Seas Oceans MATERIAL FLUX MODELS Local Ecosystems & Habitats & People

Typology To discern Regional & Global patterns 200 sites with nutrient 222 budgets Pr. Predictive relationships 22002 Nutrient Budget Modeling Clustering & Visualization tools Using global Databases to Scale up

DATA NEEDS: • System area and volume • River runoff, precipitation, & evaporation • Salinity gradient • Nutrient loads • DIP concentrations • DIN concentrations • DOP, DON (if available) • DIC (if available).

Non-conservative nutrient fluxes

Stoichiometry 106 CO 2 + 16 H+ + 16 NO 3 - + H 3 PO 4 + 122 H 2 O (CH 2 O)106(NH 3)16 H 3 PO 4 + 138 O 2 Redfield Equation (p-r) or net ecosystem metabolism, NEM = - DIP x 106 (C: P) (nfix-denit) = DINobs - DINexp = DINobs - DIP x 16 (N: P) Where: (C: P) ratio is 106: 1 and (N: P) ratio is 16: 1 (Redfield ratio) Note: Redfield C: N: P is a good approximation where local C: N: P is absent (e. g. mangrove litter).

Non-conservative fluxes & system states: Lingayen Gulf Derived Parameter Estimate (mmol m-2 yr-1) DIP load (total input fluxes) 65 DIN load (total input fluxes) 425 DIP -35 DIN -600 (p-r) (nfix-denit) 1, 890 0

Nutrient Budget Assessments (black areas)

Socioeconomic Assessments • Site specific: – Population – Waste load from economic • Global: – Population – Waste load proxies • Agricultural land cover • Runoff (natural + anthropogenic sources)

Methods RESIDUALS ESTUARINE SUB-SYTEM ECONOMIC SUB-SYSTEM RESOURCES Input-Output Modelling (James 1985) Biogeochemical Budget Modelling (Gordon et al. 1996)

Input-Output Model: 11 Economic Sectors • • • Agriculture Fishery Forestry Mining & quarrying Heavy manufacturing (I) • Light manufacturing (II) • • Electricity, gas & water Waterworks & supply Construction Transport, communication & storage • Other services • Household

Population & Economics Feature Population (x 1000) Population Density (nos km-2) Economic activities Red River Delta Ban Don Bay Lingayen Gulf Merbok Estuary 19, 900 860 2, 600 300 610 70 400 680 -Agriculture -Forestry -Capture fisheries -Shrimp farming -Aquaculture -Capture fisheries -Mangrove wood harvest -Agriculture -Rubber & oil -Agriculture -Capture fisheries -Aquaculture -Light manufacturing -Charcoal production -Capture fisheries -Aquaculture -Agriculture

Nutrients: Human-generated and Loads Parameter (mmol m-2 yr-1) DIP generation • Agriculture • Household DIP load DIN generation • Agriculture • Household DIN load RRD CNP= 1000: 13: 1 Bandon Bay Lingayen CNP = Gulf CNP = 324: 27: 1 106: 1 Merbok Estuary CNP = 1400: 9: 1 520 10 90 180 78% NA 21% 14% 45% 53% 31% NA 110 25 65 20 1, 940 60 800 2, 480 76% NA 21% 15% 78% 20% 28% NA 405 1140 425 670

Nutrient Budget Assessments (black areas): How to scale up globally?

Predictive relationships Log (mol DIP km-2 yr-1) = 2. 72 + 0. 36 X log (persons km-2 ) + 0. 78 X log (runoff in m 3 yr-1) DIP load, number of persons, and runoff scaled to catchment basin area N=168; r 2 = 0. 58 (Smith et al, in prep. )

LOICZ Typology Database • 0. 5 degree grid • 47, 057 cells (out of 259, 200 total for earth’s surface) make up primary typology cells – Coastal (with shoreline; NOAA 1999) – Stream network (U. New Hampshire 1999) – Grid cell composition: Coastal (15, 278 cells) + terrestrial (immed. Landward) (12, 449 cells) + oceanic (immed. Seaward) (19, 330 cells)

Yield Load

Potential Directions • Systematic assessments of socioeconomic drivers along rural-urban gradients – System state feedbacks on resource-based economic activities (capture fisheries, aquaculture, tourism) – Watershed management • Fertilizer policy and use • Sewage and wastewater treatment • Land use and cover change

LOICZ: Phase II