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Matakuliah : J 0114 -Teori Ekonomi Tahun : 2009 ECONOMIC GROWTH Pertemuan 13 Bina Nusantara University 2
Ingredients of Growth • Supply Factors Increases in Quantity and Quality of Natural Resources Increases in Quality and Quantity of Human Resources Increases in the Supply (or Stock) of Capital Goods Improvements in Technology Bina Nusantara University 3
Ingredients of Growth • Demand Factor – Households, Businesses, And Government Must Purchase the Economy’s Expanding Output of Goods and Services • Efficiency Factor – Must Achieve Economic Efficiency and Full Employment Bina Nusantara University 4
Production Possibilities Curve Capital Goods C A Economic Growth c b a Bina Nusantara University B D Consumer Goods 5
Labor and Productivity Real GDP = Hours of Work x Labor Productivity • Size of Employed Labor Force • Average Hours of Work • Technological Advance • Quantity of Capital • Education and Training • Allocative Efficiency • Other Bina Nusantara University Labor Inputs (Hours of Work) Real GDP Labor Productivity (Average Output per Hour) 6
Growth in the AD-AS Model Production Possibilities and Aggregate Supply ASLR 1 ASLR 2 Capital Goods C Price Level A B D Consumer Goods Bina Nusantara University Real GDP 7
Growth in the AD-AS Model Production Possibilities and Aggregate Supply Depicting U. S. Growth with AD-AS Model ASLR 2 ASLR 1 AS 2 Price Level AS 1 P 2 P 1 AD 2 AD 1 Q 2 Bina Nusantara University Real GDP 8
Accounting for Growth O 16. 1 • Growth Accounting • U. S. Economic Growth Rates U. S. Economic Growth, Annual Averages for Five Decades Average Annual Increase (Percent) Real GDP Per Capita Bina Nusantara University 9 Year Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Accounting for Growth • Factors Underlying Growth – Increases in Hours of Work – Increases in Labor Productivity Accounting for Growth of U. S. Real GDP, 1953 -2011 (Annual Percentage Changes) Item Increases in Real GDP Increases in Quantity of Labor Increases in Labor Productivity Bina Nusantara University *Beyond 2005 are Projections 1953 Q 2 to 1973 Q 4 to 1995 Q 2 to 2001 Q 1 to 2005 Q 3 to 2011 Q 4* 3. 6 2. 8 3. 8 2. 8 3. 2 1. 5 1. 7 -0. 6 0. 8 2. 4 1. 3 2. 1 3. 4 2. 4 10 Source: Economic Report of the President, 2006
Accounting for Growth • Technological Advance • Quantity of Capital – Infrastructure • Education and Training – Human Capital Bina Nusantara University Percent of Adult Population Changes in the Educational Attainment of the U. S. Adult Population 11 Year Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Accounting for Growth • Economies of Scale • Improved Resource Allocation • Other Factors – – Bina Nusantara University Economic Freedom Political Freedom “Growth Friendly” Positive Attitudes Toward Work and Risk Taking 12
A New Economy? • Productivity Acceleration – 1. 4% Average Growth 1973 -1995 – 2. 9% Average Growth 1995 -2004 • Reasons for Acceleration – The Microchip and Information Technology – New Firms and Increasing Returns • Start-Up Firms Bina Nusantara University 13
A New Economy? • Increasing Returns – – – More Specialized Inputs Spreading of Development Costs Simultaneous Consumption Network Effects Learning by Doing • Global Competition Bina Nusantara University 14
A New Economy? • Implication: More Rapid Growth • Skepticism About Permanence • What Can We Conclude? – More Rapid Long-Run Trend of Productivity Growth – Time Will Tell If Growth is Sustainable Bina Nusantara University 15
A New Economy? GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Growth Competitiveness Index Country Bina Nusantara University Finland United States Sweden Denmark Taiwan Singapore Iceland Switzerland Norway Australia Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: World Economic Forum 16
Growth Desirability • Is Growth Desirable and Sustainable? • The Antigrowth View – Adverse Spillovers – Alternative Quality of Life Opinions • In Defense of Economic Growth – Higher Standard of Living – Poverty Reduction – Limited Only by Human Imagination Bina Nusantara University 17
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