Bay Area/California High-Speed Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Study presented to TRB Planning Applications Conference presented by Elizabeth Sall Maren Outwater Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Metropolitan Transportation Commission California High-Speed Rail Authority May 9, 2007 Transportation leadership you can trust.
Model Overview Forecast all interregional trips within California Forecast intraregional trips in largest urban areas Induced travel for interregional trips 1
Integrated Modeling Process Peak and off-peak time periods Highway, air, conventional and high-speed rail modes Intraregional Models Interregional Models Trip Generation Trip Frequency Trip Distribution Destination Choice Mode Choice Travel Times 2 Trip Assignment Travel Times
Networks Highway Rail 3 Air Local Transit
Data for Model Validation Travel surveys • American Traveler Survey (ATS) • Caltrans Household Travel Survey • Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) Volume data • Air passengers • Rail passengers • Highway volumes 4
Trip Frequency Model Validation Short Model Trips by Purpose and Region In Thousands 500 400 Remainder of CA 300 Los Angeles Region 200 San Francisco Region 100 San Diego Region 0 Sacramento Region Commute Business Recreation Other Long Model Trips by Purpose and Region In Thousands 250 200 150 100 50 0 5 Commute Business Recreation Other
Destination Choice Model Validation Trips by Travel Market (in Percent) 25 Observed Model 20 15 10 5 0 LA to Sacramento LA to San Diego 6 LA to SF Sacramento to San Diego Sacramento to SF San Diego to SF LA/SF to SJV To/From Monterey/ Central Coast Other to SJV To/From Far North To/From W. Sierra Nevada
Mode Choice Model Validation Short Business Short Commute Short Other Long Business Long Other Auto 99. 7% 99. 5% 99. 9% 91. 6% 91. 5% Air 0. 0% 8. 2% 7. 9% Rail 0. 3% 0. 5% 0. 1% 0. 2% 0. 7% Auto 99. 7% 99. 5% 100. 0% 89. 8% 88. 5% Air 0. 0% 10. 6% Rail 0. 3% 0. 5% 0. 0% 0. 2% 0. 9% Observed Model 7
Air Assignment Validation Air Boardings by Market (in Thousands) 35 30 Observed Model 25 20 15 10 5 0 LA to Sacramento 8 LA to SF LA to San Diego Sacramento to SF Sacramento to San Diego to SF LA/SF to SJV Other
2030 Travel Markets for Interregional Trips Market LA to Sacramento LA to San Diego Annual Trips (in millions) 8 134 LA to SF 20 Sacramento to SF 68 Sacramento to San Diego 2 San Diego to SF 9 LA/SF to SJV 137 Other to SJV 204 To/From Central Coast 158 To/From Far North 120 To/From W. Sierra Nevada 9 36 2. 5 million daily trips (0. 7 million daily trips in 2000 business plan)
Door to Door Travel Times – Example South San Francisco to Central LA Travel Time Components – Door to Door Auto Access Origin to Station Terminal Curb to Waiting Area HSR Wait Board Vehicle Line-Haul In-Vehicle Terminal Seat to Curb Air Egress Station to Destination 0 100 200 300 400 Travel Time in Minutes 10 500 600
Level of Service and Mode Choice – Example South San Francisco to Central LA Mode Auto High Speed Rail Air 11 Door to Door Times (minutes) 541 Cost (2005 $) $84 Headway (minutes) n/a Business 15% Other 37% 270 $54 14 14% 37% 236 $139 9 72% 26% Mode Shares
Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 In Millions 2000 Business Plan Pacheco Altamont Percent Difference Base Higher Air and Auto Cost 37 65 95 69 94 +4 percent -1 percent Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base 12
Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 by Market In Millions 25 Pacheco Pass Alternative Base Altamont Pass Alternative Base 20 15 10 5 0 Total Boardings by Market LA to San Diego LA to Sacramento 13 Sacramento to SF LA to SF San Diego to SF Sacramento to San Diego Other to SJV LA/SF to SJV Intraregion (1)
2030 Mode Shares by Travel Market Other to SJV LA/SF to SJV San Diego to SF Sacramento to San Diego Sacramento to SF LA to San Diego LA to Sacramento 0 20 40 Auto 14 60 Air Rail 80 HSR 100
Interregional HSR Ridership by Purpose Business Short 8% Commute Short 8% Recreation/Other Short Recreation/Other Long 49% Business/Commute Long 32% 15 3%
Sensitivity Tests Business -8 percent Other -15 percent Change in HSR Revenues +2 percent +12 percent +22 percent +16 percent +29 percent +94 percent +53 percent Change in HSR Ridership Test Increase HSR Fares (25 percent) Double HSR Frequency Increase Air and Auto Times (6 percent), Increase Air and Auto Costs (50 percent) 16
Fare Structure Interregional fares set to 50 percent of air fare in SF to LA market Intraregional fares set to 50 percent higher than commuter rail 25 percent increase in fares caused Average Fare Market LA to Sacramento $ 55 LA to San Diego $ 20 LA to SF $ 56 Sacramento to SF $ 37 Sacramento to San Diego $ 66 San Diego to SF $ 68 LA/SF to SJV $ 38 • 13 percent drop in ridership • 2 percent increase in revenues 17 In 2005 dollars
Annual Interregional Revenues in 2030 In Millions 2000 Business Plan Base Higher Air and Auto Cost $1, 214 $2, 377 $3, 724 $2, 454 $3, 621 +3 percent -3 percent Pacheco Altamont Percent Difference Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base In 2005 dollars 18
Annual Intraregional Ridership and Revenue in 2030 Urban Area San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Region Revenues (in millions) $41 15. 7 $142 0. 4 $4 20. 5 San Diego Region Total Boardings (in millions) 4. 4 $186 A 50 percent increase in air and auto costs would increase intraregional ridership and revenues by 6 percent, or • 21. 7 million annual HSR riders and • $197 million in revenues In 2005 dollars 19
Sources of HSR Ridership Interregional trips Induced 2% Air 16% Rail Auto 79% 20 3%
Total Statewide HSR Ridership and Revenue Base (1) Higher Air and Auto Cost (2) 2030 Annual Ridership in Millions Pacheco 86 117 Altamont 90 116 +5 percent -1 percent Percent Difference 2030 Annual Revenues in Millions Pacheco $2, 563 3, 921 Altamont $2, 640 3, 818 +3 percent -3 percent Percent Difference 21
Reports Available on the CHSRA Web Site Interregional Model System Development Level-of-Service Assumptions and Forecast Alternatives Findings from the Second Peer Review Panel Meeting and Findings from the First Peer Review Panel Meeting Survey Documentation Socioeconomic Data, Transportation Supply, and Base Year Travel Patterns Data 22
Next Steps Generate data for environmental studies Conduct additional alternative tests Finalize intraregional models in Southern California 23
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