Background Changes in age group populations

Background • • Changes in age group populations Changes in lifestyle Reduction in infectious diseases Increase in degenerative diseases Government set dietary targets Concerns about health claims and regulation A new dimension of well being controlled by diet

Terms of Reference • To construct a vision that anticipates opportunities and hurdles for future foods for wellbeing over the next 25 years • Consider the influences on consumer, industry and government responses to the emerging science that underlies foods for wellbeing • Produce a document that includes alternative scenarios, discusses key variables and highlights opportunities and obstacles

Group Membership • • John Young Mike Buchanan Helen Conn Jack Winkler • Fiona Angus • Tanya Footman Leatherhead Int Marks & Spencer Forum Holdings Food & Health Research Leatherhead Int IGD

Group Vision • • • Social Economic Science/Medicine Technology Government Healthcare • • • Education/Training Agriculture/Fisheries Manufacturing Retailing Communication

Delphi Survey • An exercise in group communication among a panel of geographically dispersed experts • Used to assess the direction of long term trends with an emphasis on science and technology • Bypasses the problems of group dynamics through anonymity and controlled feedback

Delphi Survey • • Formation of the survey team Selection of the expert panel Development of 1 st Round Questionnaire Analysis of responses Preparation of 2 nd Round Questionnaire Analysis of responses Preparation of 3 rd Round Ranking Exercise Analysis of responses

Expert Panel • Academic • Legislators • Science • Media/Journalism • Industry • E. U. and International based • Consumer Interest

Expert Panel • • • Dr Margaret Ashwell OBE Prof Janet Bainbridge Dr Liam Breslin Dr Judy Butriss Dr Claire Chapman Prof Anthony Clayton Dr Paul Clayton Ms Carol Culhane Dr Mark Lawrence Mrs Dorothy Mackenzie Prof Vincent Marks • • • Prof John Marsh Prof Ian Mc. Connel Dr Noel Olsen Mr Adrian Penrose (on behalf of MRC) Francoise Pestret Prof Keith Singletery Prof Sean Strain Peter Wennstrom Prof Christine Williams Mr Simon Wright

Con’s • A method of last resort in dealing with extremely complex problems • Results are dependent on the experts chosen • Results are dependent on the structure of the questions asked • Current events are seen as more relevant than future events

Pro’s • Recognizes judgement as legitimate in generating forecasts • Makes the best of less than perfect information • Overcomes the disadvantages of conventional committee procedures • Effective even when used in small groups

Round One Questionnaire • Identify what the major issues and influences will be. • Some areas of general agreement • Strongly held individual views • Some directly opposed views

Areas of General Agreement “Changing patterns of work and the ageing population will have a profound effect” “A focus on wellbeing incorporating ethical components such as Fair Trade”

Areas of General Agreement “An increased division between the money rich, time poor and technically enfranchised on the one hand the under and unemployed on the other” “An increase in predictive medicine with prevention rather than cure”

Areas of General Agreement “Education about food and nutrition to become a major learning area for adults and children” “The general negative attitude of the educational establishment and the media to agriculture and large scale food production will not change leading to increased problems in recruitment”

Areas of General Agreement “Education of what constitutes a healthy lifestyle and healthy eating is the most important of all considerations. Scientific, evidence based nutrition should be a compulsory subject in schools”

Strong Individual Beliefs “The proportion of disposable income spent on food has been going down but this woill reverse as food becomes more expensive” “International market liberalisation will lead to a fall in the cost of food”

Strong Individual Beliefs “New Technologies will enable better provision of bioavailable functional ingredients” Nutrigenomics will be one of the strongest scientific factors for future foods for wellbeing”

Strong Individual Beliefs “There will be an increase in demand for processed foods from the emerging Asian economies” “Proper protocols for clinical nutrient studies will develop resulting in more definitive findings that will replace consumer cynicism with confidence”

Strong Individual Beliefs “There will be the introduction of a Fat Tax on bad foods” The Common Agriculture Policy will cease to exist in it’s current form along with wholesale production subsidies”

Opposing Views “Personalised functional foods according to genotype will be offered on retail websites” “The development of functional foods will not be sustained, the influence of nutrition on diet is lifelong” “The move to functional foods will take off and foods without health claims will be disadvantaged”

Opposing Views “Within Europe, GM foods will continue to be resisted by consumers” “GMO’s will become an important source of foods”

Opposing Views “Honesty in advertising and marketing” “More blatant lying by advertisers, marketeers and PR companies” “Authoritative labelling of functional claims help to restore confidence in health claims”

Round Two Questionnaire • Analysis of First Round responses • Controlled feedback of the issues raised • Request for opinions on issued raised

Round Three Ranking • Analysis of 2 nd Round responses • Identification of 36 variables which will have a major influence • Construction of a ranking table to assess the relative importance of each variable against another

Round Three Ranking First 3 1. Continuing trend to obesity and associated diabetes. 2. Food technology’s ability to enhance the health qualities of foods, including new delivery systems. 3. The regulatory structure which emerges to govern all forms of communication about future foods for wellbeing.

Round Three Ranking Last 3 34. The continued expansion of the Fast Food Industry. 35. Liberalisation of agricultural trade between developed and developing worlds. 36. The impact of climate change on what can be grown in different countries

Round Three Ranking Debate 22. Future taxes on “unhealthy” foods and/or subsidies for healthy foods. 18. The changing economic participation of women at work and in the home. 20. Increasing convergence of the pharmaceutical and food industries